energy security indicators - Друштво термичара Србије · pdf...
TRANSCRIPT
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 1
Anca Costescu Badea
European CommissionJoint Research CenterInstitute for EnergyEnergy Security Unit
Energy Security Indicators
http://www.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 2
Outline
Introduction
IndicatorsSimple indicators
Simple indicators and policy making (an example)
Diversification indicators
Composite indicators
Indicators in projects at JRC-IESimple indicators
Composite indicator
Conclusions & References
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 3
Outline
Introduction
IndicatorsSimple indicators
Simple indicators and policy making (an example)
Diversification indicators
Composite indicators
Indicators in projects at JRC-IESimple indicators
Composite indicator
Conclusions & References
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 4
The 4 A’s
Energy Resource Availability Conventional and unconventional hydrocarbon resources, renewable resources (wind, solar, biofuels)
Accessibility Barriers Barriers (geopolitical, financial and human constraints, fiscal regimes, and need for major infrastructure and technology deployment) to explore and develop available resources.
Environmental Acceptabilityenvironmental and safety concerns
Investment Cost Affordabilityconsumers being able to afford energy services, capital and operating cost structures for developing various energy sources
���� Multidimensional conceptSource : APERC study (2007)
Introduction
Energy security = an uninterruptible supply of energy, in terms of quantities required to meet demand at affordable pricesEurope’s Vulnerability to Energy Crises, World Energy Council 2008
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 5
Strategies for Enhancing Energy Security
• Diversification related strategies:
– increasing the number of fuels and technologies that are in the energy mix
– increasing the number of suppliers for each fuel (especially if imported)
– developing storage capacity for different fuels (e.g., strategicreserves)
• Other strategies:– increasing energy efficiency, conservation, use endogenous energy
sources
Introduction
Source : Energy Security Quarterly (2008)
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 6
Europe’s energy policies objectives
European
Energy Policy
Security of
supply
Competitiveness
Sustainability
Objectives that might be conflictual
owa
Introduction
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 7
Outline
Introduction
IndicatorsSimple indicators
Simple indicators and policy making (an example)
Diversification indicators
Composite indicators
Indicators in projects at JRC-IESimple indicators
Composite indicator
Conclusions & References
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 8
Indicators
Indicators in the energy field developed at different (energy) agencies
– Eurostat : 8 groups ~30– European Environment Agency : monitoring the integration of environmental
considerations in the energy sector� set of “energy and environment indicators” >30
– IAEA, UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, IEA, Eurostat, EEA2005 : Energy indicators for sustainable development� Environmental (10)� Economic (16)� Social (4)
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 9
• How to measure security of supply?
• Everybody talks about security of supply, but which are the attempts to put figures on this concept?
• Specific indicators
– Simple– Composite (aggregated)
– Short term energy security– Long term energy security
– Demand side– Supply side
Indicators
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 10
Most popular
simple indicators
Energy intensity
= TPES / GDP
Indicators
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 11
Most popular
simple indicators
Energy dependency
for different energy sources
(oil, gas,…)
= import / gross inland energy [%]
Source : Eurostat
Indicators
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 12
Most popular
simple indicators
Reserves-to-Production Ratios
(oil, gas,…) = proven reserves / primary
production [y]
Source: World Resources Institute, 2005.
Indicators
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 13
Most popular simple indicators
Energy price (oil price)
Indicators
supply in relation to demandmeasure of economic impactsreflects depletion of energy resourcesproblems: speculation, short-term shortages,…
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 14
Most popular simple indicators
Sectoral indicators
share of biofuels in road transport= biofuel consumption /
petrol & diesel consumption [%]
The Renewable Energy Directive set a 10 % minimum target of renewable energy (primarily biofuels) in the transport sector, for all Member States individually, by 2020.
Source : Eurostat
Indicators
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 15
Outline
Introduction
IndicatorsSimple indicators
Simple indicators and policy making (an example)
Diversification indicators
Composite indicators
Indicators in projects at JRC-IESimple indicators
Composite indicator
Conclusions & References
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 16
Proposal for a Regulation on Security of Gas Supply
Norway;
3061751;
15,9%
Nigeria;
588317; 3,1%Libya;
383615; 2,0%
Qatar;
275496; 1,4%
EU
indigenous;
7785401;
40,4%
Other;
320733; 1,7%
Egypt;
221305; 1,1%
Russia;
4685365;
24,3%
Algeria;
1943976;
10,1%
Source of natural gas, in TJ (2007)
Indicators
Simple indicators and policy making
Source: DG TREN
Import sources of new EU-8 MS
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Russia
Germany
Algeria
Norway
Others 11%
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 17
Indicators
Simple indicators and policy making
Gas Import dependency (%)
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
BE BG CZ
DK
DE
EE IE EL
ES FR IT CY LT LV LU HU
MT NL
AT PL
PT
RO SI
SK FI
SE UK
EU27
1990
2007
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 18
Impact of Ukrainian gas crisis on
individual countries
> 75 %
50 - 75 %
25 – 50 %
< 25%
0%
Ukraine
% of missing gas supply
Indicators
Simple indicators and policy making
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 19
Definition
There is sufficient capacity to supply total gas demand if the largest infrastructure fails (+ time dimension)
IPm � import pipelines
Pm � production
Sm � storage withdrawal
LNGm � LNG facility
Im � largest gas infrastructure
Tout � transmission outflow
Dmax � demand max
Advantages
� tangible definition of SoS� takes into account situation in individual MS & compares their security of supplysituation� element of MS responsibility, basis for further solidarity � calculated with available information, and for any area size (MS, region, EU)� flexibility for MS : storage, LNG, back-up import capacity, extra production, reverse flows, demand management (full subsidiarity applies)
Main element of proposed Regulation : infrastructure standards,
N-1 indicator
max
1[%] 1 100 %0 0m m m m m outIP P S LNG I T
ND
+ + + −≥
−− = ×
IndicatorsSimple indicators and policy making
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 20
N-1 indicator by MS and EU
Financial instruments available
• European Energy Programme forRecovery (EEPR Regulation)
– help DK, SE, HU, RO, BG, SI to cope
with N-1, and increase N-1 in other MS
– Reverse flows projects will help BG, SI
– Nabucco
• Baltic Energy Market InterconnectionPlan
– help FI, LT to cope N-1
• Ireland – projects to cope with N-1
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
DK GR DE BE SK AT PL NL LV CZ EE ES IT HU FR UK RO SE LU PT BG SI LT IE FI EU
N-1
Normal EERP
Indicators
Simple indicators and policy making
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 21
Outline
Introduction
IndicatorsSimple indicators
Simple indicators and policy making (an example)
Diversification indicators
Composite indicators
Indicators in projects at JRC-IESimple indicators
Composite indicator
Conclusions & References
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 22
More complex indicators : diversity
• Meaning : putting eggs in different baskets
• Use : energy (fuel) type, geographical source, suppliers � hedge against supply risks & against market power
• Shannon-Wiener Index
Maximum (=log(n)) when all the shares are equal (1/n)
• Herfindahl-Hirschman index
Minimum (=1/n) when all the shares are equal (1/n)
1
log( )n
i i
i
SWI p p=
= −∑
0 0 .1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0 .6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
(1 /3, lo g (3))
2
1
n
i
i
HHI p=
=∑
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0 .9 1
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
(1/3, 1/3)
Indicators
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 23
More complex indicators : diversity
problem 1
• diversity indices : how many options do we have?
• IEA 1991 : 6 options– coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro/geothermal, other
• IEA 2002 : 11 options– coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro, geothermal, solar, tide/wave/ocean,
wind, combustion renewables and waste, other
• diversity indices might yield significant different resultsdepending on the partitioning of options �sensitivity to linguistic conventions
Indicators
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 24
More complex indicators : diversity
problem 2
– Variety (number of categories)– Balance (their spread)– Disparity (degree to which categories are different) – difficult to
measure
– Ex: � Energy mix 1: coal 70%, gas 5%, wind 25%
� Energy mix 2: coal 70%, gas 25%, wind 5%
� Previous diversity indices cannot discriminate: SWI1=SWI2, HHI1=HHI2
� Wind is more disparate than coal & gas, but how to measure?
Source: Stirling, 2010
SWI, HHI
Indicators
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 25
More complex indicators :
diversity
problem 2
introduction of a disparity measure
Source : Stirling, 2010
Indicators
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 26
(even) More complex indicators : diversity
1. basic indicator : correction factor =12. energy net import dependency
correction factor = f(share of net import in PES of source i,share of imports of source i from region j in total import)
3. import dependency and long-term socio-political stabilitycorrection factor = same as 2 + extent of political stability in region j
(0 : unstable; 1 : stable)4. import dependency, long-term socio-political stability and resource depletion
correction factor = same as 3 + proven reserve-to-production ratio for source i in region j
1
log( )n
i i i
i
c p p=
−∑
correction factor
share of primary energy source i
Source : Jansen, 2004
Indicators
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 27
(even) More complex indicators : diversity
– separate indices for the main fuels (oil, gas, coal)– energy import diversification– political stability of the supplying country– domestic energy production of the importing region
1
log( )n
i i i
i
c p p=
−∑
Gas index
Source : Neumann, 2003
Indicators
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 28
(even) More complex indicators : diversity– separate indices for the main fuels (oil, gas, coal)– energy import diversification– political risks of the supplying country– risk associated with energy transit– economic impact of a supply disruption for each energy type
2
1
n
i i
i
c p=
∑
Contribution to EU RiskExposure index : relative impact of each MemberState on the aggregate EU risk (short term)
Source : Le Coq, 2009
Indicators
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 29
(even) More complex indicators : diversity
arguments against supply security as an import problem for oil, gas, coal
• oil:not linked to the diversity of import sources because it is a global, fullyintegrated market, which might depend on one or a few highly unstableregions
• gas: US imports mainly from Canada � lack of diversity; domestic US gasproduction in the Gulf of Mexico exposed to risk of disruptions fromhurricanes � not reflected in the index
• coal: if a country would produce 100% of its domestic coal consumption �
higher degree of energy securitybut : the biggest energy supply disruption in UK’s history was a result of the coal miners’ strike in the ’80s
Source : Pierre Noel
Indicators
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 30
Outline
Introduction
IndicatorsSimple indicators
Simple indicators and policy making (an example)
Diversification indicators
Composite indicators
Indicators in projects at JRC-IESimple indicators
Composite indicator
Conclusions & References
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 31
Composite (aggregated) indicators
– What is a composite indicator ?
A composite indicator is formed when individual indicators are compiled into a single index, on the basis of an underlying model of the multi-dimensional concept that is being measured.*
– Why composite indicators ?
− instruments for simple comparisons of countries (regions, universities, economic sectors…)
− monitor their performances and the time trends − convey policy messages
Source: Nardo, 2008
Indicators
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 32
Composite indicators
Supply/demand (SD) index (Scheepers et al. 2007)
– based on expert judgement on all possible relevant aspects of SOS (demand, supply, conversion, transport)
– attempt to cover the whole energy spectrum in the medium and long run– subjective weights– covers the period 2005 – 2020 (using Primes outputs)
Indicators
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 33
S/D Index, EU-27 and Member States, 2005, PRIMES based
Source : Jansen, 2010
Composite indicators
Indicators
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 34
Composite indicatorsIEA energy security indices (Lefevre 2009)
• physical unavailability
• price risk from supply market concentration
• Purpose : Develop a base methodology to analyse impacts of policy on ES in 2020/30 to help guide policy making
• Use : Project for DG Environment“Analysis of Impacts of Climate Change Policies on Energy Security”based on energy system modeling
Generic causal mechanisms of energy insecurity
Stage I
EventStage II
Impact on
sector of
supply
chain
Stage III
Knock-on
impacts on
other sectors of
supply chain
Stage IV
Impact on
demand
sector
Stage V
Impact on
Welfare
Indicators
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 35
Composite indicators
Willingness to pay (Bollen 2008)
• percentage of GDP a country is willing to pay for decreasingthe SOS risks; higher willingness for higher risks
– import ratio of a fuel– share of fuel in TPES– energy intensity
• expressed in monetary terms
Source: Bollen, 2008
Indicators
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 36
Composite indicators
• Oil vulnerability index (Gupta 2008)– based on 7 indicators
− ratio oil import value to GDP− oil consumption per unit of GDP− GDP per capita− oil share in TPES− ratio of domestic reserves to oil consumption− net oil import dependence, diversification of supply sources, political risks in oil-
supplying countries− market liquidity
– weights: PCA � increased robustness
• Vulnerability index (Gnansounou, 2008)– based on 5 indicators from economic, environmental & societal fields– weights: subjective choice– Use: «Europe’s Vulnerability to Energy Crises » World Energy
Council 2008
Indicators
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 37
Source: Kruyt, 2009
simple indicators : – some are used (import
dependence, oil price, non carbon, energy or oilintensity)
– some have a qualitative or limited used
– some are not used (diversityindices, marketconcentration, mean-variance portfolio
aggregated indicators :– not used
Assessment of the current use of different indicators in policy making
Indicators
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 38
Outline
Introduction
IndicatorsSimple indicators
Simple indicators and policy making (an example)
Diversification indicators
Composite indicators
Indicators in projects at JRC-IESimple indicators
Composite indicator
Conclusions & References
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 39
Gas case
9 indicator groups
1. Macro-economic indicators (energy intensity, consumption/capita, import bill indicator,…)
2. Energy balance indicators (production, imports, exports, transformation, conversion loss, distribution loss, energy industry use, final consumption …)
3. Reserves indicators (Indigenous production, proven gas reserves)4. Sectoral indicators (TFC industry, households, services, power generation, …)5. Diversification indicators (sources, suppliers, sectorial, routes, diversification
electr. production)6. Import risk indicator (import dependency, supplier shares, country risks,…)7. Infrastructure indicators (storage, LNG terminal, interconnection pipelines,…)8. Gas crisis indicators (Storage flexibility, LNG flexibility, fuel switching
flexibility,…)9. Gas flow model indicators (Successful strategies, gas supply margin, pipeline
use)
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE
Simple indicators
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 40
Gas crisis indicators
"Supply lost" indicators
"Imports lost" indicators
"Consumption lost" indicators
Assessment disruption
Possible responses MS
3. Third phase measures
2.3. LNG import flexibility
2.2. Alternative import flexibility
2.1. Route flexibility
2. Second phase measures
1.3. Increase production
1.2. Increase LNG send-out capacity
1.1. Increase storage withdrawal
1. First phase measures
SUPPLY SIDE
2. Interruptible demand
1. Fuel switching
DEMAND SIDE
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE
Simple indicators
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 41
Crisis situation
86.1%
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
GR BG SK HU CZ PL AUT SI IT FR RO DEU
mcm
/day
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Gas disrupted (mcm/day)% of actual consumption
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE
Simple indicators
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 42
First phase measures
Action 1.1: Increase storage withdrawal
Action 1.2: Increase LNG send-out
Action 1.3: Increase production
Second phase measuresAction 2.1: Route flexibility
Action 2.2: Alternative imports flexibility
Action 2.3: LNG flexibility
Third phase measures
� Immediately
� 1-3 days
� If 1st & 2nd
phase are not enough
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE
Simple indicators
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 43
Source: EC, DG TREN
Action 1.1: Storage use
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1/0
1/2
009
2/0
1/2
009
3/0
1/2
009
4/0
1/2
009
5/0
1/2
009
6/0
1/2
009
7/0
1/2
009
8/0
1/2
009
9/0
1/2
009
10/0
1/2
009
11/0
1/2
009
mcm
/d
AT BE
BG CZ
DE DK
EE ES
FR GR
HU IE
IT LT
LV LU
NL PL
PT RO
SI SE
SK UK
Jan 7: 725 mcm/day
Jan 1: 302 mcm/day
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE
Simple indicators
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 44
14,7%
62,1%
27,8%
86,0%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AT FR IT SI PL CZ HU RO SK BG
mc
m/d
ay
0,0%
50,0%
100,0%
150,0%
200,0%
250,0%
300,0%
350,0%
400,0%
% d
isru
tpio
n
increasewithdrawal
% disruption
Withdrawal
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE
Simple indicators
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 45
Second phase supply-side measures
First phase measures
Action 1.1: Increase storage withdrawal
Action 1.2: Increase LNG send-out
Action 1.3 Increase production
Second phase measuresAction 2.1: Route flexibility
Action 2.2: Alternative imports flexibility
Action 2.3: LNG flexibility
Third phase measures
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE
Simple indicators
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 46
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
01/0
1/09
03/0
1/09
05/0
1/09
07/0
1/09
09/0
1/09
11/0
1/09
13/0
1/09
15/0
1/09
17/0
1/09
19/0
1/09
mc
m/d
AT BE BG
CZ DE DK
EE ES FI
FR GR HU
IE IT LT
LV LU NL
PL PT RO
SI SE SK
UK CRO BiH
SRB FYROM
No route flexibility: Hungary, Slovak Republic, Bulgaria, Romania, Greece, Slovenia
Route flexibility: Poland, Germany, Czech Republic, Lithuania, Finland.
=> Poland: 82,6% of Russian Imports
=> Czech Republic: 45% of Russian I.
Action 2.1: Route flexibility
• Ukraine transit was completely blocked (=264 mcm/day). However EU imports from Russia decreased only by 207 mcm/day.
• Some Russian gas could be transported via alternative routes (via Belarus)
Source: DG TREN
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE
Simple indicators
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 47
Action 2.2: Import flexibility
• Alternative gas was available- Norway (CZ, HU, AUT)
- Lybia (IT)
- Algeria (SI)
- Netherlands
• Import flexibility constrained by
interconnection capacity- SK: 1 pipeline from UA
- RO: 2 pipelines from UA
- BG: 98% capacity from RO
• No import flexibility for these
countries
2,58
19
10
10,1
3
9
115
126
12,87
301
Capacity pipelines in mcm/day
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE
Simple indicators
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 48
Action 2.3: LNG imports flexibility
(GREECE)
Source: EC, DG TREN
0
20
40
60
80
01/01/09 03/01/09 05/01/09 07/01/09 09/01/09 11/01/09 13/01/09 15/01/09 17/01/09 19/01/09 21/01/09
mcm
/d
Gas amount in storage, mcm Gas stocks change, mcm/d (-withdrawal, + injection)
Gas withdrawal, mcm/d Maximum withdrawal capacity, mcm/d
Gas consumption, mcm/d
2nd phase: rescheduled LNG cargoes1st phase: increase send-out
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE
Simple indicators
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 49
First phase measures
Action 1.1: Increase storage withdrawal
Action 1.2: Increase send-out capacity
Action 1.3 Increase production
Second phase measuresAction 2.1: Route flexibility
Action 2.2: Alternative imports flexibility
Action 2.3: LNG flexibility
Third phase measures� SK on Jan 18: reversal pipeline SK-CZ
� BG on Jan 19: reversal pipeline BG-GR
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE
Simple indicators
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 50
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE
Simple indicators
Supply side measures results for the 2009 gas crisis
% of disruptionCzech
RepublicHungary Romania Greece
Slovak
RepublicBulgaria
Group I Group II Group II Group II Group III Group III
1.1. Storage 132% 86% 62% 0% 28% 15%
1.2. LNG send-
out0% 0% 0% 62% 0% 0%
1.3. Production 0% 10% 26% 0% 1% 1%
TOTAL 1st phase 132% 96% 88% 62% 28% 16%
2.1. Route flex 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2.2. Import flex 19% 13% 13% 0% 0% 0%
2.3. LNG flex 0% 0% 0% 169% 0% 0%
TOTAL 1st + 2nd 176% 109% 101% 231% 28% 16%
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 51
Outline
Introduction
IndicatorsSimple indicators
Simple indicators and policy making (an example)
Diversification indicators
Composite indicators
Indicators in projects at JRC-IESimple indicators
Composite indicator
Conclusions & References
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 52
– How to build composite indicators ?
– 10 steps
address only one step:
– the weighting method
– ORDERED WEIGHTED AVERAGING (OWA)
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE
Composite indicator
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 53
ORDERED WEIGHTED AVERAGING (OWA)used in web technologies (metasearch engines)
– compensatory aggregation (the previous composite
indicators)weights = trade-offs between indicators: a deficit in one
can be compensated by a surplus in another (ex: linearaggregation)
– non-compensatory aggregationdifferent goals are equally important � find a compromise
between those goalsincrease in economic performance cannot compensate for a worsening of the environment
– embed expert preferences
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE
Composite indicator
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 54
– OWA : how it works
– weights associated to an ordered position
– the user can place most of the weights
� near the first components to emphasize higher ranks (optimism, at least one)
� near the last components to emphasize lower ranks(pessimism, for all)
(1 )i
n
i iwC II=
= ∑
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE
Composite indicator
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 55
• choice of the simple inditators : availability of consistent data,
present and future• do not include geopolitical, sociological, price related,…
aspects
• from EU-27 energy outlook from 2005 to 2030
• results with PRIMES model under the baseline scenario(current trends and policies implemented by the end of 2006)
• EXAMPLE of how an energy security composite indicator
can be build
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE
Composite indicator
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 56
1. energy intensity2. carbon intensity3. import dependency on coal4. import dependency on oil5. import dependency on gas
6. primary production (5 pes)7. electricity generation capacity
(11 fuels)8. energy demand in transport
(6 transport modes)
simple indicators
diversity indicators
Shannon Wiener index
1
1log( )
log
N
i i
i
SWI p pN =
−= ∑
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE
Composite indicator
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 57
2005
energy intensity
carbon intensity
coal import
oil import
gas import
primary energy sources
electricity generation
energy demand in
transport
Belgium
Poland
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE
Composite indicator
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 58
Results
• 7 preferences
• optimism � pessimism
• 6 years (2005, 2010, …, 2030)
• aggregation on ranks (1 is the best)
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE
Composite indicator
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 59
optimistic preference
0000 10101010 20202020 30303030
DKDKDKDKGRGRGRGRHUHUHUHUMTMTMTMTNLNLNLNLPLPLPLPLFIFIFIFI
SESESESEDEDEDEDEIEIEIEIE
FRFRFRFRROROROROUKUKUKUKPTPTPTPTEEEEEEEEESESESESLVLVLVLVATATATATBEBEBEBEBGBGBGBGCZCZCZCZITITITITSISISISILTLTLTLTLULULULUSKSKSKSKCYCYCYCY
rank
2010201020102010
2030203020302030
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE
Composite indicator
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 60
risk neutral preference0000 10101010 20202020 30303030
UKUKUKUKDKDKDKDKDEDEDEDEFIFIFIFI
ESESESESHUHUHUHUSESESESEGRGRGRGRROROROROIEIEIEIEATATATATNLNLNLNLSISISISIITITITIT
FRFRFRFRBGBGBGBGBEBEBEBESKSKSKSKPTPTPTPTCZCZCZCZLVLVLVLVPLPLPLPLEEEEEEEELTLTLTLTMTMTMTMTLULULULUCYCYCYCY
rank
2010201020102010
2030203020302030
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE
Composite indicator
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 61
pesimistic preference0000 10101010 20202020 30303030
ESESESESDEDEDEDEFIFIFIFI
SESESESEUKUKUKUKFRFRFRFRHUHUHUHUBEBEBEBEATATATATDKDKDKDKITITITIT
NLNLNLNLIEIEIEIELTLTLTLT
GRGRGRGRLVLVLVLVCZCZCZCZEEEEEEEELULULULUPTPTPTPTSKSKSKSKPLPLPLPLROROROROBGBGBGBGCYCYCYCYMTMTMTMTSISISISI
rank
2010201020102010
2030203020302030
Indicators in projects at JRC-IE
Composite indicator
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 62
Outline
Introduction
IndicatorsSimple indicators
Simple indicators and policy making (an example)
Diversification indicators
Composite indicators
Indicators in projects at JRC-IESimple indicators
Composite indicator
Conclusions & References
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 63
Conclusions & References
�Constraint: available & reliable data
�Indicators cover energy security 4 A’s,
less the acceptability
�Use of composite indicators in policy making: limited
�Might convey contradictory messages if not carefully used
�Communication!
Source: Kruyt 2009
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 64
Conclusions & References
1.Europe’s Vulnerability to Energy Crises, World Energy Council 2008
2.APERC study (2007) A Quest for Energy Security in the 21st Century Resources and Constraints,
Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre, www.ieej.or.jp/aperc
3.Energy Indicators For Sustainable Development: Guidelines And Methodologies IAEA, UNDESA, IEA,
Eurostat, EEA, Vienna, 2005
4.Energy Security Quarterly, USAID SARI/ENERGY, Contract Number 386-C-00-07-00033-00, 2008
5.A. Stirling, Multicriteria diversity analysis: A novel heuristic framework for appraising energy portfolios,
Energy Policy, 38, 4, 2010, pp. 1622-1634
6.IEA 2001: Toward a sustainable energy future. OECD/IEA, Paris 7.Bert Kruyt, D.P. van Vuuren, H.J.M. de Vries, H. Groenenberg Indicators for energy security, Energy
Policy, 37, 6, 2009, pp. 2166-21818.Jansen, J.C., Arkel, W.G. van, Boots, M.G., Designing indicators of long-term energy supply security,
ECN report, ECN-C--04-007, 2004.9.A. Neumann, C. von Hirschhausen, Security of (Gas) Supply: Conceptual Issues, Contractual
Arrangements, and the Current EU Situation INDES Academic Workshop (May 2003,
Amsterdam/Netherlands
10.Le Coq C., Paltseva E. Measuring the security of external energy supply in the European Union
Energy Policy, 37(11), 2009, pp. 4474-448111.http://www.energypolicyblog.com/author/pierrenoel/12.J.C. Jansen, A. J. Seebregts, Long-term energy services security: What is it and how can it be
measured and valued?, Energy Policy, 38(4), 2010, pp. 1654-1664
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 65
Conclusions & References
13.Scheepers M.J.J., Seebregts, A.J., Jong, J.J. de, Maters, J.M., EU Standards for Energy Security of Supply, ECN report number ECN-E—07-004, 2007.
14.Lefèvre N., Measuring the energy security implications of fossil fuel resource concentration, Energy Policy, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2009.02.003, 2009.
15.Bollen, J.C., Energy Security, air pollution, and climate change: an integrated cost benefit approach.
MNP, Bilthoven 2008
16.E. Gupta Oil vulnerability index of oil-importing countries Energy Policy, Volume 36, Issue 3, March
2008, Pages 1195-1211
17.E. Gnansounou, Assessing the Energy Vulnerability: Case of Industrialised Countries, Energy Policy,
36(10), pp. 3734-3744, 200818.Bert Kruyt, D.P. van Vuuren, H.J.M. de Vries, H. Groenenberg Indicators for energy security, Energy
Policy, 37, 6, 2009, pp. 2166-218119.Proposal for a Regulation on Security of Gas Supply Energy Working Group, 16 July 2009 J.-A.
Vinois, DG TREN20.L.Vanhoorn, H.Faas, Short and long-term indicator and early warning tool for energy security, IEAA
conference, Vienna 200921.Rocco C, Tarantola S, Costescu Badea A, Bolado Lavin R. Composite Indicators for Security of
Energy Supply in Europe using Ordered Weighted Averaging. In Conference Proceedings: Radim Bris,
C. Guedes Soares, Sebastian Martorell, editors. Reliability, Risk and Safety: Theory and Applications,
2009. p. 1737-1744.
22.Nardo M, M Saisana, A Saltelli, S Tarantola, A Hoffman, E Giovannini, Handbook on Constructing
Composite Indicators and User Guide. OECD Paris, JRC Ispra, 200823.EU 2007: European Energy and Transport, Trends to 2030 – Update 2007, European Commission,
DG TREN24.Energy Policy Volume 38, Issue 4, Pages 1607-2074 (April 2010) Energy Security - Concepts and
Indicators with regular papers Edited by Andreas Löschel, Ulf Moslener and Dirk T.G. Rübbelke
Belgrade, May 19-21 2010 66
Thank you for your attention!