energy slideshow - february 2018 - dallas fed · pdf fileenergy slideshow federal reserve bank...

Updated: April 17, 2018

ENERGY SLIDESHOWFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas

ENERGY PRICES

www.dallasfed.org/research/energyFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas

http://www.dallasfed.org/research/energy

Brent & WTI Crude OilWTI & Brent Crude Oil

NOTES: Latest prices are averages for the week ending 4/13/18.

Dashed lines are forward curves. WTI is West Texas Intermediate.

SOURCES: Bloomberg; Energy Information Administration.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Brent (Apr 13 = $71.24) WTI (Apr 13 = $66.02)Dollars per barrel

95% confidence

bands for WTI

Henry Hub Natural GasHenry Hub & Marcellus Natural Gas

NOTES: Latest prices are averages for the week ending 4/13/18.

Dashed line is a forward curve. Marcellus price is an average of

Dominion South, Transco Leidy Line, and Tennessee Zone 4 prices.

SOURCES: Bloomberg; Wall Street Journal.

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Henry Hub (Apr 13 = $2.71) Marcellus (Apr 13 = $2.40)Dollars per million

British thermal units

95% confidence bands

for Henry Hub

Retail Gasoline & Diesel

NOTES: Prices are for 4/16/18. PADDs are “Petroleum Administration for

Defense Districts.” Prices include all taxes.

SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

Retail price per gallon

PADD Gasoline Diesel

1 $2.69 $3.12

1A $2.69 $3.15

1B $2.80 $3.28

1C $2.61 $3.00

2 $2.60 $3.02

3 $2.50 $2.91

4 $2.73 $3.14

5 $3.37 $3.58

U.S. $2.75 $3.10

Regular Gasoline & Highway Diesel


GLOBAL PETROLEUM



World Oil Supply & Demand

NOTE: Dashed lines represent forecasts.




92

94

96

98

100

102

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Q1

2018

99.6

98.8

Million barrels per day

World

production

World

consumption


NOTE: Shaded bars represent forecasts.


Implied Change in World Oil Stocks


-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


OPEC Oil Production & Rig Count

NOTES: OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum

Exporting Countries. Dashed line represents a forecast.


OPEC Crude Oil Production


28.5

29.0

29.5

30.0

30.5

31.0

31.5

32.0

32.5

33.0

33.5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Mar

32.2

OECD Commercial Inventories

NOTES: OECD is the Organization for Economic Cooperation

and Development. Dashed line represents a forecast.


OECD Commercial Oil Inventories


2,500

2,600

2,700

2,800

2,900

3,000

3,100

3,200

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Million barrels

2010-2014 average

Mar

2784

OECD Commercial Inventories

NOTE: OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.


World Oil Production Outages


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


OPEC

Non-OPEC

Mar

1.22

0.58

NATIONAL OUTLOOK



U.S. Oil Production & Rig CountU.S. Oil & Gas Production

NOTE: Natural gas series is marketed production.

SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

1921 1929 1937 1945 1953 1961 1969 1977 1985 1993 2001 2009 2017

U.S. crude oil production


U.S. natural gas production

Billion cubic feet per day

U.S. Oil Production & Rig Count

NOTES: Dashed line shows the forecast as of 4/10/18. Rig count

series shows the last weekly count each month.

SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration.

U.S. Oil Production & Rig Count


300

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

U.S. crude oil production


U.S. oil rig count

Number of active rigs

Jan

9.96

Mar

797

Gasoline Demand

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

U.S. Oil & Gas Employment


100

140

180

220

260

300

340

380

420

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Number of jobs (thousands)

Support activities

for oil and gas operations Oil and gas

extraction

Feb

255

Mar

150

Crude Oil & Product Inventories

NOTE: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 4/11/18.


Commercial Crude Oil Inventories


300

350

400

450

500

550

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2010-2014 range 2010-2014 average 2018 2017 2016 2015Million barrels

Jan

420

Feb

426Mar

425

Gasoline Demand

NOTE: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 4/11/18.


Natural Gas Inventories


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5


2010-2014 range 2010-2014 average 2018 2017 2016 2015Trillion cubic feet

Feb

1.6

Jan

2.1

Mar

1.4

Gasoline DemandGasoline Inventories

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas NOTE: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 4/11/18.


200

210

220

230

240

250

260

270



Jan

248

Feb

251

Mar

238

Gasoline DemandDistillate Inventories

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas NOTE: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 4/11/18.


110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180



Feb

137

Jan

141

Mar

129

Gasoline Demand

NOTES: Series is seasonally adjusted. Data are estimates based on hourly

traffic count data at approximately 5,000 locations nationwide.

SOURCE: Federal Highway Administration.

Vehicle Miles Traveled


240

245

250

255

260

265

270

275

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Billion miles traveled

Jan

268

Gasoline Demand

NOTES: Square marks based on weekly data as of 4/11/18.

Gasoline consumption is estimated using product supplied.


Gasoline Consumption


8.0

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.8

9.0

9.2

9.4

9.6

9.8


2010-2014 range 2010-2014 average 2018 2017 2016 2015Million barrels per day

Jan

8.74

Feb

9.06

Mar

9.34

REGIONAL ACTIVITY



Texas Oil Production & Rig Count

NOTE: Natural gas series is marketed production.


Texas Oil & Gas Production


10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017

Texas crude oil production


Texas natural gas production



NOTE: Rig count series shows the last weekly count each month.

SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration.



150

250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Texas crude oil production


Texas rig count

Number of active rigs

Jan

3.89

Mar

496

Texas Mining Sector EmploymentTexas Oil & Gas Employment

SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Dallas Fed.


50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Number of jobs (thousands)

Support activities

for mining

Oil and gas

extraction

Feb

148.62

77.64

12-Month Total Rig Change by County

*Change in total rigs, from 3/31/2017 to 3/30/2018.

SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.


3-Month Total Rig Change by County

*Change in total rigs, from 12/29/2017 to 3/30/2018.

SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.


Crude Oil Production by State

NOTE: Data shown are monthly, for January 2018.


Natural Gas Production by State

NOTES: Data shown are monthly, for January 2018.

Series depicted is marketed natural gas production.



Crude Oil Production by Region

NOTE: Series depict estimates after January 2018.


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


Permian

Basin

Eagle

Ford

Bakken

Niobrara

Other

areas

Appalachia

Permian Basin

Haynesville

Other areas

Eagle Ford

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


Natural Gas Production by Region

NOTE: Series depict estimates after January 2018.


Energy Survey Business Activity

NOTES: Index is the percentage of firms reporting an increase in activity

since the prior quarter minus the percentage reporting a decrease.

Positive values reflect expansion in oil and gas activity, negative values

reflect contraction and zero reflects no change since last quarter.

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

In the current quarter vs. the prior quarter: has your firm’s level of business

activity increased, not changed or decreased?


-42.1

13.826.7

40.1 41.8 37.327.3

38.1 40.7

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018

Diffusion index

Breakeven Prices for New Wells

NOTES: Line shows the mean, and bars show the range of responses.

65 E&P firms answered this question from March 14-22, 2018.


Dallas Fed Energy Survey—In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What

WTI oil price does your firm need to profitably drill a new well?


Permian

(Midland)Permian

(Delaware)

Bakken

Permian

(Other)SCOOP/

STACK

Other U.S.

(Shale)

Other U.S.

(Non-shale)

$47 $49 $50$52 $53 $54 $55

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Dollars per barrel

15 13 4 18 7 7 34

Number of responses

Shut-in Prices for Existing Wells

Dallas Fed Energy Survey—In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What

WTI oil price does your firm need to cover operating expenses for existing wells?

Federal Reserve Bank of DallasNOTES: Line shows the mean, and bars show the range of responses.

66 E&P firms answered this question from March 14-22, 2018.


Permian

(Midland) SCOOP/

STACK

Permian

(Delaware) Other U.S.

(Shale)

Permian

(Other)Bakken

Other U.S.

(Non-shale)

$25 $27$30 $32

$37 $38$40

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

15 6 13 7 18 4 35Number of responses

Dollars per barrel

Additional Resources

• Energy Indicators

– A monthly web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the energy sector

• Quarterly Energy Update

– Concise analysis of the latest major developments and key changes facing global oil and gas markets

• Dallas Fed Energy Survey

– A quarterly assessment of energy activity as reported by 150 oil and gas firms located in the Eleventh District

• Energy in the 11th District

– Detailed info on four major regions: the Barnett Shale, Eagle Ford Shale, Haynesville Shale and Permian Basin

• Other energy articles and research

Click here to contact us for general information or other inquiries.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/energy/indicators

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/update/energy

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/energy11

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/energy/energy

mailto:[email protected]

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