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Carlos Santos Silva
2015-2016
Energy Systems Modeling and Economics
Energy Modeling
Reference Energy System
Sustainable Energy System
• To design sustainable energy, several
options must be considered:
• Energy services demand
•Renewable resources
• Energy storage
• Alternative fuels
• To design effectively, the interactions
between the possible options must be
accounted for:
•Consumer behavior
• Intermittency of renewable resources
• Evolution of energy demand/services
• Impact of energy efficiency policies
Planning an energy system
US (2007) US (2025)
Modeling tools for planning
Terminology (1)
•Simulation
• Given sets of data and certain parameters, it simulates the behavior of the system
• Example: How much is the renewables penetration / the cost considering that we have:
• X MW of installed capacity of X1, X2,…XN technologies;
• Y MWh of demand
•Scenarios
• Allows direct comparison between different simulations
•Optimization
• Determines what is the “best” configuration and operation of the system
• Example: What is the installed capacity of X1, X2,…XN technologies, in order to:
• Minimize the cost
• Maximize the renewable penetration
Terminology (2)
•(General) Equilibrium model
• Model that describes the economy by aggregating the behavior of individuals and firms
• In these models, the energy demand is driven by economic variables
• Population evolution, GDP
(Partial) Equilibrium model
• It considers the variation of the price of a single product and the prices of all other products
being held fixed during the analysis
• Only the energy price is varying
Terminology (3)
•Top-down model
• Macro-economic model that describes the interrelationship between labor, capital and
natural resources such as energy.
• The energy demand is driven by economic variables
• Population evolution, GDP
• The interrelationships are modeled with elasticities of substitution.
Bottom-up models
• Detailed technology description (demand and supply), including new technologies
• Energy demand is given or is a function of energy prices and national income (in this case
it will be a partial equilibrium model)
Planning tools @ IST
Analysis of energy planning tools
•Analysis of 84 energy models showed that:
• Simulation and Invesment optimization models are generally used for simulation of
medium and long-term case studies with low resolution
• Operation optimization and Operation and investment optimization models are generally
applied to case studies with higher time-resolution than 1h.
Lack the ability to look
into several years
Modeling gaps
Tools have very different scopes, resolution and algorithms.
Hour Year
Region /Country
House /Neighborhood
Second
Spatial
resolution
Temporal
resolution
Scenarios
Optimization
Methodology
Lack the ability to account
for hourly dynamics
Solution
Hour Year
Region /Country
House /Neighborhood
Second
Spatial
resolution
Temporal
resolution
Scenarios
Optimization
Methodology
Methodological thinking
•In order to reduce the computational complexity of the problem, the proposed
methodology consists in the use of two different tools.
Medium-term model
•Multi-year optimization of investments in renewable energies
•Some hourly dynamics
•Detailed description of energy consumption:
•Across different sectors
•Different types of energy carriers
•Capable of understanding the evolution of the system:
•Economic growth
•Fuel prices
•Energy demand
Short-term model
•Hourly optimization of electricity production for one year, taking into account:
•Start-up costs and efficiencies for thermal engines
•Variability of renewable resources
•Solar
•Wind
•Hydro
•Fuel prices
•Demand profiles
•Dynamic demand options (EVs, others)
•Optimization of use of energy storage systems
Test feasibility
of the results,
one year at a
time
Introduction of
restrictions for
optimization of
investments
Results for São Miguel, Azores
HybridTraditional
Results for Portugal
HybridTraditional
Modeling energy systems
Choose planning tool and evaluate the results
Define reference energy system and calibrate model
Define scenarios that describe possible system evolution
Iterate scenarios to achieve goals, make a sensitivity analysis, make a reality check of the goals
Define policy goals that we want to achieve
FINAL PROJECT
Design a energy policy plan for an energy system
•Contribute to the energy policy for one island of Azores for 2020 to achieve
• 75% of renewable electricity
• 40% of renewable energy on primary energy (considering fossil fuel
substitution)
Topic Island
Electrification of gas consumption São Miguel
Electrification of gas consumption
Pump-storage
Terceira
Interconnection Faial
São Jorge
Pico
Santa Maria
Graciosa
Flores
Pump-storage
Demand response
Corvo
Working projects
•Azores
• Terceira Island pump-storage
•Portugal
• Impact of solar PV self-consumption
• Buildings Retrofit Strategy
•West Lisbon
• Buildings retrofit
EXAMPLE
Project Corvo
December 30th, 2009
Winter 2009/2010
•7 weeks without LPG supply
Winter supply shortages
•Fuel
•Food
Corvo Island, Azores
Land area: 17 km2
Population (2008): 488
Primary energy consumption (TJ): 21
Renewables penetration in electricity: 0%
Number of vehicles: 93 (40 LDV+22 Pick Ups)
Number of households: 145
Electricity customers: 248
Corvo Energy Outlook
•Fuel transport is very difficult in winter
• Supply disruption every year (butane and diesel for vehicles)
• Butane offset
•Annual Government support
• GPL: 39 000 €
• Diesel: 30 000 € electricity / 12 000 € transport
Electricity Consumption
•Diesel Power Plant
• 4 diesel units (536 kW)
• Peak in 2009 (243 kW)
• Off-peak in 2009 (96kW)
•Residential sector represents 40%
• Detailed survey
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
GWh
Losses
Residential
Public Services
Commerce
Industry
Agriculture
Road Transportation
Electricity Consumption Dynamics (Season)
Residential Energy Consumption (Electricity)
Towards 100% renewable (energy)
Butane Offset (residential and commerce)
Solar thermal for Hot Water
Electrify stoves and ovens
Diesel and gasoline Offset (road transportation)
Electric Vehicles
Diesel Offset (Power generation)
Renewables + storage facility
DWH model
Pressupostos
Nº Casas: 150
Nº sistemas: 90 ST (60%) + 60 HP (40%)
Nº de ocupantes por casa: 3
Consumo total aqs /dia/ casa: 120 litros
Solar Collector Storage Tank
Area ᶯ Fluid Volume Uc Power
[m2] % % [l] [W/m2.K] kW
4.2 80 80 Water 200 1,8 2
Sistema solar térmico
Sistema bombas de calor
Heat Pump Storage Tank
COP Power Volume
kW [l]
2.5 1.5 300
Morning
[l]
Evening
[l]
Distributed
[l]
0h-8h 0 0 0
8h-9h 40 0 0
9h-10h 40 20 20
13h-14h 0 0 20
19h-20h 0 40 0
20h-21h 40 40 40
21h-22h 0 20 40
22h- 24h 0 0 0
Perfis de Consumo diário
Caso 1: morning profile (pior caso)
Caso 2: total = distribuição igual de
consumos pelos 3 perfis (33% cada)
(ver tabela abaixo)
Models:
Modelo = Carga de 2012 + (90 casas *Apoio sistema solar) + (50 casas*apoio bomba calor)
• Modelo 1.0 - Carga 2012 + apoio livre
• Modelo 1.1 – Carga 2012+ apoio livre + perdas térmicas nos depósitos
• Modelo 2.0 – Carga 2012 + apoio noite (arranque às 00H)
Capacidade Pico maximo
anual
Diferencial pico
cenário base
Energia anual
consumido
Diferencial anual
energia
Energia media consumida
por dia
kW kW kW MWh MWh kWh/dia
Carga 2012 536 221 0 1372 0 3759
Modelo 1.0 457 236 1508 136 4132Modelo 1.1 471 250 1523 151 4174Modelo 2.0 370 149 1511 139 4141
Capacidade Pico maximo
anual
Diferencial pico
cenário base
Energia anual
consumido
Diferencial anual
energia
Energia media consumida
por dia
kW kW kW MWh MWh kWh/dia
Carga 2012 536 221 0 1372 0 3759
Modelo 1.0 371 151 1508 136 4132
Modelo 1.1 400 179 1520 148 4165
Modelo 2.0 370 149 1519 147 4162
Caso 2: igual distribuição de consumos pelos 3 perfis
Caso 1: perfil de consumo de manhã
Resultados: Semana extrema de Inverno
Pico máximo: 400 kW às 21H
(semana 6)
Resultados: Semanas típica de Primavera
Pico máximo: 265 kW às 22H
(semana 16)
Resultados: Semanas típica de Verão
Pico máximo: 259 kW às 22H
(semana 28)
Resultados: Semanas típica de Outono
Pico máximo: 353 kW às 22H
(semana 48)
Is it possible?
•Is it technologically feasible?
• Which type of renewables?
• How much installed capacity of each?
•Is it economically feasible?
• How much does it cost?
• Positive net present value?
Energy system modeling
HOMER (electricity)
ENERGYPLAN (energy)
Modeling approach
•Build reference case
• Calibrate model with reality
• Use Energy balance data, Demand data, Production data
•Build future reference case
• Forecast of demand, fuels costs
• Implement investment plans already settled
•Scenario analysis
• New technologies / installed capacities
• Different optimization strategies
• Different prices
• Different policies
EnergyPlan RES
Corvo RES
General Overview
•Input
•Cost
•Output
•Settings
Data Files Structure
•Distributions
• Demand
• Renewable Resources
•Data
• RES model
•Cost
Data files
Files describing hourly data from one year
• 8784 hours
• txt files (tab delimited)
Demands
• % of maximum between 0 and 1
Renewables
• capacity factor
SETTINGS
General Overview
•Capacity Unit
• Scale of the system
•Monetary Unit
INPUT
General Overview
•Electricity Demand
•District Heating
• including Power Production from fossil fuels
•Renewable Energy
•Electric Storage
•Cooling
•Individual
• Residential energy needs
•Industry
•Transports
•Waste
•Biomass
Electricity demand
•Electricity demand
• Total in GWh / year
• 1,37
• Change Distribution
• Corvo_demand.txt
•Electric heating /cooling
• 0
•Flexible Demand
• Energy / Power (1 day / 1 week / 1 month)
• 0
•Fixed Import / Export
• Fixed value
• 0
• Distribution.txt
District Heating
•Distribution of demand
• Distribution.txt
•Distribution of solar thermal
• Distribution.txt
•Group I (no CHP)
• 0
•Group II (small CHP)
• 0
•Group III (large CHP)
• PP2 (560 kWe, 0,3 elect efficiency)
Fossil Fuels
Renewable Energy
•Renewable Energy Source (1 to 4)
• Installed capacity
• Wind (1) – 1000 kW
• Distribution.txt
• Corvo_wind.txt
• Correction factor
• Fine tune capacity factors
•HydroPower
•GeothermalPower
Electric Storage
•Electrolyser
•Electric Storage
(Pump-storage, batteries, Fuel Cell)
• Pump (conversion to potential energy)
• Turbine (conversion to electricity)
• Storage (capacity)
•Advanced CAES
(compressed air energy storage)
Technology evolution
Source: André Pina (PhD MPP-SES)
COSTS
General Overview
•Fuel
•Operation
•Investment
•Additional
Fuel
•Fuel Prices (World Market) € /GJ
• Coal (17.2 /€ bep): 2.8€/GJ
• Oil ( 72 € /bep): 11.8 €/GJ
• Gas ( 47 €/bep): 7.8€/GJ
• Diesel in Corvo: 41 € / GJ
• Use Fuel ENERGYPLAN does not consider diesel power generation plants)
•Handle Costs
•Taxes
•CO2
1 barrel of oil equivalent = 6.1 GJ
Operation
•District Heating
•Power Plants
• PP2: 430 € / MWhe
•Storage
•Individual
Investment
•Wind
• 1.8 M€ /1000 kW
• Period: 25 years
• O&M: 5 %
Solar
• 5M€ /1000kW
• Period:15 years
• O&M: 0
Regulation
General Overview
•Optimization strategy
• Technical
• Market
•Electric Grid Requirement
• Minimum share:0.2
•Critical Excess Electricity Production
• 7 strategies
•External Electricity Market Definition
•External Electricity Market Response
•Transmission line Capacity
• 0
Output
General Overview
•Overview
•Screen
•Graphics
Screen
Graphics
General Overview
Electricity “only”!
Equipment
Designing the system
Generator
Wind Turbine
Solar Power Plant
Primary Load
RESOURCES
Solar
Wind
Diesel
System Control inputs
Constraints
Simulation
Results overview
Results detail