Energy Technology Innovation

Kelly Sims Gallagher, Ph.D.Director, Energy Technology Innovation ProjectKennedy School of Government, Harvard UniversityFebruary 18, 2007

Outline

The process of energy-technology innovation (ETI)

Global investments in ETI Chinese investments in ETI U.S. government investments in ETI Concluding thoughts

“Stages” of Innovation

Research Development Demonstration Deployment

• Early deployment• Widespread diffusion and uptake by market

R&D

RD3

Dynamic Process

Research Development Demonstration Deployment

Government

Measuring Energy Innovation

Quantitative vs. qualitative metrics

Input metrics Output metrics Outcome metrics

Carbon Factor (carbon emissions per unit of energy use)

Global Investments in Energy Innovation

Public vs. Private

No international data Best estimate is that private industry accounts

for 2/3 of energy RD&D in the United States (NRC report: Energy Research at DOE: Was It Worth It

National Science Foundation’s annual survey of industrial R&D shows an almost continuous decline in the 1980s and 1990s, with the 1999 levels about one-fifth of the peak value in 1980 (in real terms).

What about venture capital?

Global Investments

Source: Gallagher, Holdren, and Sagar 2006, “Energy-Technology Innovation” Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 31: 193-237.

China’s Investments

During the Eleventh Five-Year Plan (starting Sept. 2006) MOST budget authority for energy research, development, & demonstration is about 3.5 billion RMB (approx. $425 million).

Budget authority for advanced coal technology is about 0.7 billion RMB (approx. $85 million). It accounts for 21 percent of the total budget.

5 coal co-production and gasification demonstration projects planned

Source: Dr. Lifeng ZHAO, ETIP, Harvard University

U.S. Government Investments in Energy RD&D

U.S. DOE Energy RD&D 1978-FY2008 Administration Request

0.0

1000.0

2000.0

3000.0

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7000.0

1978

1979

1980

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Req

uest

2008

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uest

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n 2

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0$

Hydrogen (non-fossil)

Electricity T&D

Fossil (includingCCT demo)

Renewables

Efficiency

Fusion

Fission

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0$

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Request 2008 Request

U.S. DOE Energy RD&D FY2000-FY2008 Request

Fission Fusion Efficiency Renewables Fossil (including CCT demo) Electricity T&D Hydrogen (non-fossil)

Concluding Thoughts

Thanks

ETIP is currently supported by the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, U.S. Energy Foundation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Winslow Foundation, and an unrestricted gift from Shell Exploration and Production.