energy technology perspsectives 2010 · energy technology perspectives 2010 oslo, 27 august 2010. 2...
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© OECD/IEA - 2010
Energy Technology Perspectives 2010
Oslo, 27 August 2010
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
The context
Need a global energy technology revolution to meet climate change and energy security challenges.
Some early signs of progress, but much more needs to be done.
Which technologies can play a role?
What are the costs and benefits?
What policies are needed?
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
OECD and non-OECD primary energy demand in the Baseline scenario
Primary energy demand in non-OECD countries is projected to increase much faster than in OECD countries in the Baseline scenario.
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
2007 Baseline 2015 Baseline 2030 Baseline 2050
Mto
e
OECD Non-OECD
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Global energy-related CO2 emissions in the Baseline and BLUE Map scenarios
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2007 2030 2050 2030 2050
Baseline BLUE Map
Gt C
O2
Other
Buildings
Transport
Industry
Other transformation
Power generation
Global CO2 emissions double in the Baseline, but in the BLUE Map scenario abatement across all sectors reduces emissions to half 2005 levels by 2050.
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
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to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Key technologies for reducing global CO2 emissions
A wide range of technologies will be necessary to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions substantially.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Gt C
O2
CCS 19%
Renewables 17%
Nuclear 6%
Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 5%
End-use fuel switching 15%
End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38%
BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt
Baseline emissions 57 Gt
WEO 2009 450 ppmcase ETP2010 analysis
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
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to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
World energy-related CO2 emissions abatement by region
In the BLUE Map scenario, most of the reductions inenergy-related CO2 emissions are in non-OECDcountries.
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Gt
CO
2Other Non-OECD 19%
Other OME 14%
India 12%
China 27%
Other OECD 10%
OECD Europe 7%
United States 11%BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt
Baseline emissions 57 Gt
ETP2010 analysis WEO 2009 450 ppm case
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
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© OECD/IEA - 2010
Primary energy demand by fuel and by scenario
By 2050, coal, oil and gas demand are all lower than today under the BLUE Map scenario.
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000M
toe 2007 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050
-27%
-36%
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Crude oil price
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Do
llars
per b
arre
lReal ($2008) Baseline Scenario
Real ($2008) BLUE Map Scenario
Impact of CO2 price on costs for crude oil:2020 50 USD/t CO2= 21 USD/bbl: 90+21 =111 USD/bbl 2030 110 USD/t CO2= 43 USD/bbl: 90+43 =133 USD/bbl2050 175 USD/t CO2= 73 USD/bbl: 70+73 =143 USD/bbl
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ENERGY
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Scenarios &
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© OECD/IEA - 2010
Decarbonising the power sector –a new age of electrification?
A mix of renewables, nuclear and fossil-fuels with CCS will be needed to decarbonise the electricity sector.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2007 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050
BLUE High Nuclear 2050
BLUE High Ren 2050
PW
hOther
Solar
Wind
Biomass+CCS
Biomass and waste
Hydro
Nuclear
Natural gas+CCS
Natural gas
Oil
Coal+CCS
Coal
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Scenarios &
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© OECD/IEA - 2010
Average annual electricity capacity additions to 2050, BLUE Map scenario
Annual rates of investment in many low-carbon technologies must be massively increased from today’s levels.
0 10 20 30 40 50
Solar CSP
Solar PV
Geothermal
Wind-offshore
Wind-onshore
Biomass plants
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas-fired with CCS
Coal-fired with CCS
GW/ yr
Present rate Gap to reach BLUE Map
30 plants (1 000 MW)
200 plants (50 MW)
12 000 turbines (4 MW)
3 600 turbines (4 MW)
45 units (100 MW)
55 CSP plants (250 MW)
325 million m2 solar panels
2/3 of Three Gorges Dam
35 plants (500 MW)
20 plants (500 MW)
Historical high
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Scenarios &
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CCS Roadmap
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Cap
ture
d C
O2
(MtC
O2/y
r)
OECD PACIFIC
USA
OTHER OECD N AM
OECD EUROPE
ODA
ME
INDIA
EEU + FSU
CSA
CHINA
AFR
2020100 projectsOECD (50%)
Non-OECD (50%)
2030850 projectsOECD (49%)Non-OECD (51%)
2050
3,400 projectsOECD (35%)
Non-OECD (65%)
2040
2,100 projectsOECD (40%)Non-OECD (60%)
201518 projectsOECD (72%)
Non-OECD (28%)
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Wind Roadmap
Wind has the potential to provide 12% of global electricity production in 2050
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PV Roadmap
PV can provide 5% of global electricity generation in 2030, 11%
in 2050
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Unprecedented rates of change in market penetration of advanced technologies
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Pas
sen
ger L
DV
Sal
es
(mil
lio
n)
H2 hybrid fuel cell
Electricity
CNG/LPG
Plug-in hybrid diesel
Diesel hybrid
Conventional diesel
Plug-in hybrid gasoline
Hybrid (gasoline)
Conventional gasoline
Light-duty vehicle sales by technology type to 2050
Electric Vehicle Roadmap
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© OECD/IEA - 2010
Smart grid CO2 reductions in 2050
Smart grids allow better management of the grid and can facilitate the deployment of low-carbon technologies, such as renewables and electric vehicles.
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
Direct reductions Enabled reductions
Greater integration of
renewables
Facilitation of electric vehicles and plug-in electric vehicles
Energy savings from peak load management
Continuous commissioning of
service sector loads
Accelerated deployment of energy efficiency programs
Reduced line losses (voltage control)
Direct feedback on energy usage
0.34- 0.69
0.31- 0.62
0.09- 0.27
0.03- 0.25
0.01- 0.05
0.00- 0.01
0.07- 0.27
Gt
CO
2/
yr
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ENERGY
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Scenarios &
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© OECD/IEA - 2010
Additional investment and fuel savings, 2010-2050
Even using a 10% discount rate, fuel savings in the BLUE Map scenario more than offset the additional investment required.
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Inve
stm
en
t
Fue
l sav
ings
USD
trill
ion
(201
0-20
50)
Commercial
Residential
Transport
Industry
Power distribution
Power transmission
Power generation
Biomass and waste
Natural gas
Oil
Coal
Un
dis
cou
nte
d
3%
dis
cou
nt
10
% d
isco
un
t
Total
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ENERGY
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Scenarios &
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© OECD/IEA - 2010
Environmental co-impacts of electricity generation technologies
Most renewable technologies have positive environmental co-impacts.
Air Water Land Air Water Land
Coal - USC 0.777
Coal - BiomassPos itive Pos i tive
Variable /
Uncerta in
Variable /
Uncerta inMinimal Minimal
0.622
Coal - CCSNegative Negative Negative
Variable /
Uncerta inNegative Minimal
0.142
Coal - IGCCMinimal
Variable /
Uncerta inMinimal Pos i tive Pos i tive Minimal
0.708
NGCCPos itive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive
0.403
NuclearPos itive
Variable /
Uncerta in
Variable /
Uncerta inPos i tive Negative Pos itive
0.005
Solar - CSPPos itive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Negative Minimal
0.017
Solar - PVPos itive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Minimal
0.009
Wind Pos itive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tiveVariable /
Uncerta in 0.002
CO2
Emissionst/MWh
Energy
Technologies
Baseline Technology for Relative Assessments Below
Life Cycle Impacts(Pre- and Post-Generation) Power Generation Impacts
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Scenarios &
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OECD EUROPE
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Contributions to emissions reductions in OECD Europe
End-use sector measures contribute nearly two-thirds of the emissions reductions between the Baseline and BLUEscenarios in 2050.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Gt
CO
2CCS 24%
Renewables 21%
Nuclear 7%
Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 3%End-use fuel switching 12%
End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 33%
WEO 2009 450 ppm case ETP2010 analysis
BLUE Map emissions 1.1 Gt
Baseline emissions 4.0 Gt
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Scenarios &
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© OECD/IEA - 2010
Primary energy demand by fuel and by scenario in OECD Europe
Fossil fuel demand is reduced to one half under the BLUE Map scenario.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Mto
e 2007
Baseline 2050
BLUE Map 2050
-51%
-51%
-63%
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Decarbonisation of power generation in OECD Europe
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2007 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050
BLUE High Nuclear 2050
BLUE High Ren 2050
TWh
Imports
Other
Solar
Wind
Biomass+CCS
Biomass and waste
Hydro
Nuclear
Natural gas+CCS
Natural gas
Oil
Coal+CCS
Coal
A mix of nuclear, renewables and fossil-fuels with CCS will be needed to decarbonise the electricity sector.
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Scenarios &
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Additional investment needs and fuel cost savings for OECD Europe
Large investment needs in transport and the building sectors maybe compensated by fuel savings.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2010
-203
0
2030
-205
0
2010
-203
0
2030
-205
0
2010
-203
0
2030
-205
0
2010
-203
0
2030
-205
0
Power sector Industry Transport Buildings
USD
tril
lio
nAdditional investments
Fuel savings
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Scenarios &
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Fuel use in the transport in OECD Europe
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Baseline Baseline BLUE Shifts BLUE Map BLUE Map Shifts
2007 2030 2050
Mto
e
Hydrogen
Biofuels
Electricity
CNG and LPG
GTL and CTL
Heavy fuel oil
Jet fuel
Diesel
Gasoline
The use of fossil fuels in the transport sector falls by over 60% inthe BLUE Map scenario
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Passenger light-duty vehicles sales by technology in OECD Europe in the Baseline and BLUE Map scenarios
Baseline scenario BLUE Map scenario
A wide range of new LDV technologies contribute to emissionsreductions under the BLUE scenario.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
mill
ion
sal
es/
yr
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Hydrogen fuel cell
Hydrogen hybrid
Electricity
CNG and LPG
Plug-in hybrid diesel
Plug-in hybrid gasoline
Hybrid diesel
Hybrid gasoline
Diesel
Gasoline
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CO2 emissions in the buildings sector in OECD Europe
Space and water heating and cooling 21%
Building shell 15%
Cooking, lighting and
appliances 9%
Electricity decarbonisation
55%
Decarbonisation of the electricity sector contributes over half of emissions reduction in the buildings sector.
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Contributions to emissions reductions in OECD Europe
Reductions in the buildings and power sector represent the largest savings
CCS power generation 12%
Nuclear 7%Wind 3%
Solar 1%
Other power generation 11%
CCS industry and transformation
12%
Industrial efficiency and recycling 4%
Industry fuel switching 2%
Transportation efficiency 11%
PHEV and EV 4%FCV 2%
2nd generation biofuels 6%
Building efficiency 18%
Other building reductions 7%
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Policies for supporting low-carbon technologies
Government support policies need to be appropriately tailored to the stage(s) of technological development.
6 GW of PVinstalled in 2009
80 large scaleintegrated plantsbeing developed
Renewables Transport Energyefficiency
Research anddevelopment
Carbon captureand storage
© OECD/IEA - 2010
The first green shootsof an energy technology revolution…
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Plans for 5 million hybrid and
electric vehiclesby 2020
1/3 funding increasebetween
2005 and 2008
Global sales of CFLs @ 3500
million/yr
Renewables Transport Energyefficiency
Research anddevelopment
Carbon captureand storage
© OECD/IEA - 2010
…much more needs to be done
46 GW of PVper year
until 2050
Over 1 billion plug-in and electric vehicles
in 2050
Increase funding by2 to 5 times
current levels
Over 3 000 plantsoperational by
2050
Lighting market dominated by LEDs in 2050
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Thank You
www.iea.org/techno/etp/index.asp