energy then now soon

Energy:

Then, Now, Soon

Glenn Rambach

How does all our energy flow through

the United States to move our vehicles,

heat our homes and run our industry?

U.S. Energy Flow Trends – 2002

Net Primary Resource Consumption ~ 97 Quads

Energy sources

for USA

(97 Q total)



Energy sources

for USA

(97 Q total)



Energy’s

destiny

1 Quad = 1 quadrillion BTU = 1015 BTU



Import reduction with all ICE hybrid vehicles




Import reduction with all ICE hybrid vehiclesImport reduction with 50% H2 fuel cell vehicles






So, what silver bullet will solve all this?





There is NO silver bullet that will solve our energy security problems

and satisfy this level of complexity in our nation’s network of energy

flows. There ARE individual solutions that, in aggregate will solve

all our problems.



“We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”


. . . . . . . . Oh really?


Time Distance

From Goal

Goal Line

Announcement

of Goal

Big, National, Goal-Driven Programs


1) Goal to Land on the Moon

Goal:

The Moon

Goal Line

Announcement

of Goal

Apollo Program

Announced May 25, 1961



First US manned sub-orbital flight, 1961

Distance From Goal

Goal:

The Moon

Goal Line

Announcement

of Goal

Apollo Program





Goal:

The Moon

Goal Line

Announcement

of Goal

Apollo Program





Goal Line

Announcement

of Goal

Project Mercury

Project Gemini

Project ApolloApollo Program





Goal Line

Announcement

of Goal

Project Mercury

Project Gemini

Project Apollo

Apollo11Lunar LandingTime: 8 yearsCost: $114B (2006$)

Apollo Program





Goal Line

Announcement

of Goal

Project Mercury

Project Gemini

Project Apollo


Apollo Program


$10 B

$20 B

Budgets are a true

measure of priorities




Goal Line

Announcement

of Goal

Project Mercury

Project Gemini

Project Apollo


Apollo Program


19

61

19

69

$10 B

$20 B

Cost from 1961

Through Apollo 11

Mission (2006$)

Budgets are a true

measure of priorities




Goal Line

Announcement

of Goal

Project Mercury

Project Gemini

Project Apollo


Apollo Program




Goal:

0% Oil

Dependence

Goal Line

Announcement

of Goal

2) Goal to Reduce U.S. Energy

Dependence From 30% to 0%

Project Independence

Announced Nov. 7, 1973



Goal:

0% Oil

Dependence

30% oil dependence, 1973.

Goal Line

Announcement

of Goal

Distance From Goal







Goal:

0% Oil

Dependence


Goal Line

Announcement

of Goal







Goal:

0% Oil

Dependence


Goal Line

Announcement

of Goal





61% Oil

Dependence.

Time: 34 years

Cost: $147B

$2 B

$4 B

$6 B

Fed Budgets (Political Will) for All Energy Development, 1973 - 1997

$0

2007 DOE

Energy Budget



Goal:

0% Oil

Dependence


Goal Line

Announcement

of Goal





Budgets are a true

measure of priorities $10 B

$20 B

61% Oil

Dependence.

Time: 34 years

Cost: $147B

1974

1978

1980

19

82

1986

1990

1994

Fission

Fossil

Renewable



Goal:

0% Oil

Dependence


Goal Line

Announcement

of Goal





61% Oil

Dependence.

Time: 34 years

Cost: $147B

Since “Project Energy Independence” was announced Nov 7, 1973:

We’ve spent

• 130% the Apollo Program in cost, and

• 415% the Apollo Program in time, and are

• Twice as far from goal than at beginning



Goal:

0% Oil

Dependence


Goal Line

Announcement

of Goal





61% Oil

Dependence.

Time: 34 years

Cost: $147B

Since “Project Energy Independence” was announced Nov 7, 1973:

We’ve spent

• 130% the Apollo Program in cost, and

• 415% the Apollo Program in time, and are

• Twice as far from goal than at beginning

Energy is far more difficult a challenge than simply landing on the moon, ending

wars or curing diseases. An Apollo Program approach is a noble idea, BUT is

fiscally inadequate to address humanity’s most difficult challenge ever, energy.

A Short Stop On The Way To $8.00 A Gallon


For 35 years, gasoline price was mistakenly considered the problem to

solve. It is merely a symptom, like the pressure reading on a barometer

that can really mean there’s a hurricane coming. Trying to solve gas prices

is the same as trying to fix the barometer, while ignoring the hurricane .

Far greater than $5.00 a gallon is likely.







WRONG PROBLEM DEFINITION!







THE problem to solve is the growth in instability of the energy supply and

its geopolitical disruption.

Global Supply-Demand Challenge

Barrels

of Oil Per

Second

Per Capita Oil Consumption - 2006

http://www.theoildrum.com/files/WSJ_consumption.png

Per Capita Oil Demand

Barrels Per Person Per Year



45% of the

World’s Population

1.32B

.235B

1.13B





45% of the


1.32B

.235B

1.13B

+ 8.83

+ 8.86

+ 9.94





45% of the


1.32B

.235B

1.13B

+ 8.83

+ 8.86

+ 9.94



If the populations of China, India and Indonesia increase oil consumption to the level of Italy, world oil consumption

would increase from 87 to 113 million barrels a day. Like adding 1.2 X United States to world consumption.



45% of the


1.32B

.235B

1.13B

+ 8.83

+ 8.86

+ 9.94

If the populations of China, India and Indonesia increase oil consumption to the level of Italy, world oil consumption

would increase from 87 to 113 million barrels a day. Like adding 1.2 X United States to world consumption.



Russian Oil Production and Consumption

www.eia.doe.gov

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/country_energy_data.cfm?fips=RS

2006:

Russia exported 6.86 million

barrels of oil a day.

If that is the same today, then at

$100 a barrel, Russia is netting

$250B a year in hard cash.

While at the same time the USA

is spending $498B a year to

import oil.Thousand B

arr

els

a D

ay

Russian Oil Production and Consumption

www.eia.doe.gov

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/country_energy_data.cfm?fips=RS

Thousand B

arr

els

a D

ay

2006:

Russia exported 6.86 million

barrels of oil a day.

If that is the same today’s

$50/barrel, Russia is netting

$125B a year in hard cash.

While at the same time the USA

is spending $235B a year to

import oil.

OK, So Much for the

Downers (Challenges)

Now Part of the

Upside and Opportunity

OK, So Much for the

Downers (Challenges)

- Fuel Cells and Hydrogen -

OK, So Much for the

Downers (Challenges)Now Part of the

Upside and Opportunity

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Cars in the News in 1993

Energy Partners’ Green Car• Hydrogen fuel

• Three 5-kW PEM fuel cells

1993

Small Sample of Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Cars in the News in 2008

Redesigning the Way We Design Cars

ALL the Car Stuff is Inside the “Skateboard”

GM Sequel Hydrogen Fuel Cell SUV

2009 Honda Clarity Key Components

134 HP Fuel Cell Stack 134 HP Electric Motor and Transmission

Solar Powered Hydrogen Refueling Station

New Driver in 2017

We need to be producing about 1 - 3 million

non-fossil powered cars per year when he

begins driving.

New Driver in 2017

We need to be producing about 1 - 3 million

non-fossil powered cars per year when he

begins driving.

Salami sandwich provided for scale.

What Choice do We Make NOW to “Save the World”?

With all the technology, economic, strategic and policy

options we have, WHAT choice do we make to finally

provide a sustainable and independent energy

economy?


With all the technology, economic, strategic and policy

options we have, WHAT choice do we make to finally

provide a sustainable and independent energy

economy?

•Your action

•The education of others

•The public

•Politicians

•Industry and financial leaders


Thank You Very Much

Civilization’s Development in Food and Energy

1101001,00010,000100,0001,000,000

Years before present

Hunters and

gatherers of food

Cultivators of food

Hunters and gatherers of energy

Cultivators ofenergy

Fire Whale oil Peat Coal Oil Nat gas Fissile mat’l

Hydro Wind/Solar/Biomass/OTEC

Fo

od

En

erg

y

New technologies now

permit us to be:

With abundant food and low

populations, we existed as:

During the last ice age we

developed the tools and

techniques to become:

energy then now soon

Technology