energy transition or the collapse of civilisation
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K
Prof Colin Butler BMed, DTM&H, MSc, PhD
16/5/14, Royal Society of Medicine, London
Prosperity challenged: Energy transition & public health
How and why health workers can
accelerate the energy transition
![Page 2: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K
Summary
Predicted “limits to growth” crisis has started, yet
scarcely recognized:
1. End of cheap energy & food
2. Overloading Earth system (gases +)
Climate change & health: three classes of effects
Ideology: “Earth poisoners” vs the rest.
Hope: keep within carbon budget (about ½ way)
Health workers: call for urgent energy transformation;
part of wider sustainability transition
2
![Page 3: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K
Kenneth Boulding (1910-93)
The Economics of Spaceship Earth
3
“the only person who believes in
perpetual economic growth is either a
madman or an economist”
![Page 4: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K4
Prosperity challenged
![Page 5: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K
World food price index (deflated) (1961-2014) (data FAO)
First oil crisis
decline in price due to
Green Revolution
oil, speculation,
rice panic
5
extreme weather events
price plateau: high energy
price, climate change, yield
limits and other evidence of
limits to growth
Index
![Page 6: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K1998 2000 2004 2008 2011
Adapted from Murray & King, Nature. 2012; 481: 433-5.
Apparent production cap
2005: Plateau Oil
Production
(million barrels/day)
Oil price (US$ per
barrel)
6
$1 billion a day, from Europe, Nth America
3rd carbon age? (M Klare) risk to
water, catastrophic climate change
Prosperity challenged
![Page 7: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K7
Ratio energy in, energy out>5:1
..not counting wasted food
![Page 8: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K8
150
125
100
75
50
25
Extreme events – i.e. climate change?
![Page 9: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K9
“Peak health”
(?)
President Royal Society 2005-
2010
![Page 10: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K
Unemployment more than tripled.. to 24.3%
10
Lancet, 2014
![Page 11: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K
A man looks through dustbins in central
Athens , 2012
Photograph: Andy Hall/Guardian11
![Page 12: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K12
“Hoovervilles”
U.S. 1930s
“Bushvilles”
U.S. now
![Page 13: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K
![Page 14: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K
pp 1693–1733
“Climate change is the biggest global
health threat of the 21st century”
but why?
14
Prosperity challenged -again
![Page 15: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K
Secondary
Primary
15
“Tertiary”
![Page 16: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K
1995 2000 2005 2010
EURussia
Chicago
despair, economic loss,
exposure to asbestos,
mould
“Primary” health effects
16
deaths
![Page 17: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K
Overall reduction,
but control more
difficult in highlands
Malaria: the great recession (Boyd, 1930)
17
![Page 18: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K
“The dangerous impacts of
climate change can only be
discussed in terms of
nonlinear behavior.’’
18
Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
“The difference between 2 and
4 degrees of warming ..
is civilisation’’
![Page 19: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K
64
36
20
80
Percentage change in yields to 2050
-50 -20 0 +20 +50 +100
UN Devt Prog, 2009
CLIMATE CHANGE to 2050: MODELLED CHANGES IN
CEREAL GRAIN YIELDS
Poor Countries Projected to Fare Worst
19
![Page 20: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K
Waterscarcity
Regions afflicted by problems due to environmental stresses:
• population pressure
• water shortage
• climate change affecting crops
• sea level rise
• pre-existing hunger
• armed conflict, current/recent
From UK Ministry of Defence[May RM, 2007 Lowy
Institute Lecture]
Climate Change: Multiplier of Conflicts and Regional Tensions
20
![Page 21: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K
Climate change will 'lead to battles for food',
says head of World Bank (April 2014)
Jim Yong Kim
21
![Page 22: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K22
“dangerous”
catastrophic?
IPCC 2013
![Page 23: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K
me
my nephew
a baby
23
![Page 24: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K
Burden of
Disease
(proportion)
Year widely accepted
now 2050?
PRIMARY (eg heat, injury,
productivity)
SECONDARY (e.g.
vector-borne diseases,
air pollution, allergies)
TERTIARY: (a
“systemic multiplier”)
famine, conflict, large-
scale migration,
economic collapse
24
![Page 25: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K
what about adaptation?
25
A mirage that threatens to trap us in dry
sand?
![Page 26: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K
Adaptation: dreams vs reality
Declared
• dream crops
• dream co-operation
• dream geoengineering
• dream technology
Revealed
• PR campaigns
• militarisation
• fortress world
26
![Page 27: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K
cyclone shelter, Bangladesh dyke, Netherlands
currently acceptable faces of adaptation
unwanted person camp,
AustraliaArmed border fence,
India - Bangladesh
or a fortress world?
![Page 28: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K28
“Exxon Mobil's response to climate change
is consummate arrogance”
Bill McKibben, 2014
Unprecedented wildfires are burning in the American west
What does big oil have to say about climate change?
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his
salary depends on his not understanding it.” Upton Sinclair
![Page 29: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K29
Adaptation (to peak oil) obvious
benefits to air, health; climate
mitigation – opposed by big
carbon
![Page 30: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K
Joining the dots: creative destruction,
stranded assets and dysfunctional
lock-ins; technological and social
“canal mania”
30
“creative
destruction”
(Schumpeter’s
gale)
“coal
mania”
“railway
mania”
Eroding the social license
![Page 31: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K
“free-market advocates seem to experience a peculiar
loss of faith whenever the subject of the environment
comes up” Paul Krugman, 2014 (Nobel Laureate economics)
Subsidies (IMF) (2011)
Fossil fuel $480 billion (0.7% global GDP; 2% govt
revenues)
Renewable energy: $88 billion ratio: >5:1
Subsidies (IMF) (2011)
Fossil fuel $2 trillion (factoring in externalities)
Renewable energy: $88 billion; ratio: >20:1
31Hurricane Sandy - $50 billion
![Page 32: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K
Why We’re in a New Gilded AgePaul Krugman
US political class actively
working to restore
patrimonial capitalism
Emman
Capital in the
Twenty-First Century
Thomas Piketty
![Page 33: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K
Gini
co-efficient (%)
China
US
world
Global Gini data (US$) Butler, 200233
![Page 34: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K34
![Page 35: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K35
Global Energy Assessment, 2012Global Energy Assessment, 2012
Unmet electricity need
3535
![Page 36: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K
Peabody Energy: “Coal Can Help Meet Millennium
Goals (Burson-Marsteller)
Mandela: overcoming poverty "is not a task of charity, it is
an act of justice".
36
Mandela – in favour of economic boycotts over apartheid
AND big carbon
![Page 37: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K
Global Energy Assessment, 2012
Solar (1975-2007
2007-10)
NUCLEAR
US$/kwH
(2005
dollars)
37
![Page 38: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K38
April 29, 2014: Natural Resources Defense Council,
BlackRock and FTSE Group launch 1st equity global index
series excluding companies linked to fossil fuel reserves.
May 7 2014
Stanford University will divest its $18.7 billion endowment of stock in coal-mining
companies.
![Page 39: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K39
urgent
Inequality, dirty energy, limits to growth & climate change are core
interlinked public health issues
sustainability solutions will deliver many co-benefits
need radically new ways of thinking and doing
James Hanson
arrested again
“society .. like a sorcerer no longer able to control the powers of
the nether world whom he has called up by his spells” (Marx, 1848)
![Page 40: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K
http://www.canberra.edu.au/faculties/health/courses/public-
health/staff-profiles/butler-colin
www.bodhi.net.au
https://twitter.com/ColinDavdButler
http://globalchangemusings.blogspot.com.au/
http://www.cabi.org/bookshop/book/9781780642659Healthy People, Places and Planet: Reflections based on Tony McMichael’s four decades of
contribution to epidemiological understanding (ANU E-Press) (co-eds Jane Dixon, Tony Capon)
![Page 41: Energy transition or the collapse of civilisation](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042817/55a09e2a1a28ab656a8b4884/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
CRICOS #00212K