Energy Transitions: Decarbonisation Challenges

Paul Deane and Fiac GaffneyMaREI, University College Cork, Ireland

Integrated Systems

Modelling

National and EU Energy

PolicyCitizens and Community

Economic Opportunities

Strong Interaction and Linkages

Power System, Gas System,

Interconnection, Nuclear, Economics,

Uncertainty

Renewables, Conventional,

Transport, Energy Efficiency, District Heating, Demand

forecasting

Citizen Scenarios, Community , EPE,

engagement, Agencies and intermediaries

Supply and value chains, Innovation systems, Resilient

investments, Innovation and

Transitions

Decarbonising the European power system in alignment with the Paris

Agreement: A comparison of scenariosExamining a snapshot of single year scenarios for the EU power system

in 2050 under varying levels of decarbonisation*

*Preliminary results presented

Electricity22%

Thermal51%

Transport27%

EU Energy End Use 2016

Source: EUROSTAT

The Paris Climate Agreement…..• Alignment will require CO2 removal not just CO2 reduction!• Negative Emission Technologies (NETs) may have a large part to play

CCS: https://energyw atch-inc.com /w p-content/uploads/2017/04/4-19-17-CCS.g ifB ECCS: https://hub.g lobalccsinstitute.com /sites/default/files/im agecache/620xH /publications/13516/advanced/07.jpgD A C: http://w w w .sciencem ag.org/sites/default/files/styles/in line__450w __no_aspect/public/RETTER.jpg?itok=izjg_jeD

Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) Bioenergy CCS (BECCS) Direct Air Capture (DAC)

Biomass potentials

• Potentials for each MS from JRC• Indirect Land use change (ILUC) not considered

Questions we need to ask on future electricity systems (IEA Task 25)

• Can supply match demand at all times• Will the power system be Reliable• Will the power system remain stable• Will power quality be assured• How does it compare to alternatives

Future Scenarios we examined

100%

Electricity demand: 4063 TWhInterconnection capacity: 111 GWVariable renewable capacity: 655 GWTotal installed capacity: 1286 GW

Electricity demand: 4063 TWhInterconnection capacity: 111 GWVariable renewable capacity: 896 GWTotal installed capacity: 1599 GW

Electricity demand: 4063 TWhInterconnection capacity: 156 GWVariable renewable capacity: 1371 GWTotal installed capacity: 2002 GW

Reference Negative Emissions Low Carbon

Decarbonisation

74

-18

27

89

3735

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

-300

-200

-100

-

100

200

300

400

500

Reference Negative Emissions Low Carbon

CO2

Inte

nsity

(kgC

O2/

MW

h)

CO2

Prod

uctio

n &

Aba

tem

ent (

Mt)

Gross CO2 Production CO2 Capture from CCS CO2 Capture from BECCS

CO2 Intensity CO2 Intensity without CCS

Decarbonisation with Direct Air Capture

74

-18

27

89

3735

58

-35

11

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

-300

-200

-100

-

100

200

300

400

500

Refer ence Negat ive Emissions Low Car bon

CO2

Inte

nsity

(kgC

O2/

MW

h)

CO2

Prod

uctio

n &

Aba

tem

ent (

Mt)

Gross CO2 Production Gross CO2 Production with DAC CO2 Capture from CCSCO2 Capture from BECCS CO2 Capture from DAC CO2 IntensityCO2 Intensity without CCS CO2 Intensity with DAC

Inertia – Continental Europe

Inertia – Continental Europe

Inertia – Continental Europe

Inertia – Continental Europe

Weaknesses in Our Analysis

Technological Weaknesses• No detailed modelling of transmission or distribution system• No robust adequacy analysis/system dynamics• Only single wind and solar years modelling• Assumptions that market support for NET’s will exist

Limiting Factors• Computational limits• Data access and availablity

High-level Challenges

• Technological: • System operation; maintain stable, reliance supply• Negative Emission Technologies; Slow technology development, e.g. no

significant progress around CCS

• Policy: • Lack of policy support for Negative Emission Technologies

• Societal: • Lack of commercial buy-in of Negative Emission Technologies

Thank you.Questions?

All feedback welcome! Email: fiac.gaffney@ucc.ie