engineered solutions international what is the severn barrage and what will it do? euring prof ian...

Engineered Solutions International

What is the Severn Barrage and what will

it do?

EurIng Prof Ian M. Arbon MSc, MBA, CEng

FIMechE, FASME, FEI, FInstR, MIoD

Environmental Decision-Making –Does Theology Help?Trinity College Bristol

10 March 2007


The Severn Barrage

Overview of PresentationOverview of Presentation

1 Recap on Sustainability2 ‘Energy’ and ‘Electricity’ 3 Energy and Climate Change4 The Energy Hierarchy5 How is the UK responding?6 The Severn Barrage7 Concluding Thoughts


1. Recap on Sustainability1. Recap on Sustainability

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Definition of SustainabilityDefinition of Sustainability

Some of the best-known (and memorable) definitions of Sustainability are:

“Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.”

Bruntland Report (1987)

Or even more simply, “We have borrowed the present from our children.”

Old African proverb The Severn Barrage


Sustainability Diagram

SOCIETALSOCIETAL ENVIRON-ENVIRON-MENTALMENTAL

ECONOMICECONOMIC

Reducing negative impacts on environment and health

Increasing quality

of life

Improving financialgains for businessesand society

The ‘Triple Bottom Line’

Effect SustaiSustai

n-n-abilityability

Definition of SustainabilityDefinition of Sustainability

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2. ‘Energy’ and ‘Electricity’ 2. ‘Energy’ and ‘Electricity’

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Breakdown of Total UK Energy Breakdown of Total UK Energy UsageUsage

Source: Dr Sue Ions, British Nuclear Group (2005)

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ElectricityHeatTransport

Actual split of energy types in UK ‘Coverage’ in the Energy Review

Source: P. Wolfe, REA (2006)

Coverage of UK Energy in Energy Coverage of UK Energy in Energy ReviewReview

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3. Energy and Climate Change3. Energy and Climate Change

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Global primary energy use, historical development from 1850 to 1990 and in the three cases to 2100, in Gtoe. The insert shows global population growth, 1850 to 1990 and projections to 2100, in billion people. Source: Bos et al., 1992

Global Primary Energy UseGlobal Primary Energy Use

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Source: World Energy Council (2000)

Global carbon emissions from fossil fuel (in billions of tonnes of Carbon)green curve [C] would lead to CO2 stabilisation at ~450 ppmv

Global Fossil Fuel Carbon Global Fossil Fuel Carbon EmissionsEmissions

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Carbon Carbon Emissions per Emissions per Capita (2000) Capita (2000)

versus versus PopulationPopulation

Carbon Emissions per CapitaCarbon Emissions per Capita

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CO2 contraction

for 450 ppm and

convergence

by 2030 to globally

equal per capita

emissions rights

Source: Global Commons Institute (2003)

COCO22 Contraction and Contraction and ConvergenceConvergence

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Source: IEA ‘World Energy Outlook’ (2006)

Global Carbon EmissionsGlobal Carbon Emissions

Compared with CO2 Stabilisation at

450 ppmv (510 ppmv CO2eq)

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Source: IEA ‘World Energy Outlook’ (2006)

Global Carbon EmissionsGlobal Carbon EmissionsCompared with COCompared with CO22 Stabilisation at 450 ppmv (510 ppmv Stabilisation at 450 ppmv (510 ppmv

COCO22eq)eq) ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO BAPS SCENARIO EXTRAPOLATED TO 2050

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Source: Prof Robert Socolow, 2004, Science 305:968-9720)

Socolow’s Stabilisation WedgesSocolow’s Stabilisation Wedges

Stabilisation triangle includes 7 wedges, each of 25 GtC

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4. The Energy Hierarchy4. The Energy Hierarchy

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Definition of the ‘Energy Definition of the ‘Energy Hierarchy’Hierarchy’

1 – Energy Conservation

2 – Energy Efficiency

3 – Renewable, Sustainable Energy Supplies

4 – Other Low Carbon Energy

Supplies

5 – Conventional Energy Supplies The Severn Barrage


Definition of the ‘Energy Definition of the ‘Energy Hierarchy’Hierarchy’

1 – Energy Conservation (do not use as much energy)

2 – Energy Efficiency (find more efficient ways of

supplying/using energy)

3 – Renewable, Sustainable Energy Supplies (least environmental impact)

4 – Other Low Carbon Energy Supplies (other GHG-

reducing supply sources)

5 – Conventional Energy Supplies (the way we currently do it) The Severn Barrage


5. How is the UK responding?5. How is the UK responding?

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Power Generation Mix (1990-2005)

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2005

Year

Mt oil

equiv

alen

t

Other

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Power Generation Mix 1990-2005Power Generation Mix 1990-2005

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Source: DUKES (2006)


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CoalCoal +0.62%+0.62%

OilOil -0.10%-0.10%

GasGas +1.01%+1.01%

NuclearNuclear -0.52%-0.52%

HydroHydro +0.01%+0.01%

OtherOther +0.48%+0.48%

TotalTotal +1.50%+1.50%

Power Generation Mix 1997-2005Power Generation Mix 1997-2005

Average Annual Change in MixAverage Annual Change in Mix


UK’s Self-Sufficiency in Fossil Fuels:UK’s Self-Sufficiency in Fossil Fuels:

20022002 20102010 20202020GasGas net exporternet exporter import 30%import 30% import import 80%80%OilOil net exporternet exporter modest importermodest importer large large importerimporterCoalCoal net importernet importer large importerlarge importer large large importerimporter

Source: PIU Energy Review, February 2002Source: PIU Energy Review, February 2002

Does this describe a sustainable Does this describe a sustainable situation?situation?

How is the UK responding?How is the UK responding?

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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Austria

Sweden

Portugal

Finland Spain

Italy

France

Denmark Greece

Germany

Ireland

Netherlands Luxembourg

UK

Belgium

Overall EU

EU

Mem

ber

Sta

te

Percentage of Total Power

1997 actual

2010 targets

Total Power From Renewables In The Total Power From Renewables In The EUEU


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Percentage of UK Electricity from Percentage of UK Electricity from Renewables:Renewables:

19971997 20102010 20202020actualactual target target aspirationaspiration

UKUK 2%2% 10% 10% (8%)(8%) 20% 20% (15%)(15%)SCOSCO 10%10% 18% 18% (23%)(23%) 40% 40% (>50%)(>50%)ENG+WALENG+WAL 1.8% 1.8% 9% 9% (7%)(7%)18% 18% (12%)(12%)


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Stop Press: 09 March 2007Stop Press: 09 March 2007

EU leaders agree to introduce legislation which will EU leaders agree to introduce legislation which will reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20% reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20% by 2020, just 13 years from now.by 2020, just 13 years from now.

Question: by how much has the UK reduced its Question: by how much has the UK reduced its GHG emissions over the past nearly ten years GHG emissions over the past nearly ten years since this Government has been in office?since this Government has been in office?

Er… they’ve actually increased over that period!Er… they’ve actually increased over that period!

So, how are we going to reverse this trend?So, how are we going to reverse this trend?

How about a tidal barrage?How about a tidal barrage?

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6. The Severn Barrage6. The Severn Barrage

The Severn Barrage


LocationLocation• Bristol Channel/ Severn Estuary

• Downstream of Cardiff to Weston-super-Mare

• 16 km length

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Tidal Tidal PowePowe

rr

• The Barrage impounds the tide, then the water is released through a turbine to generate electricity

• Proven Technology: La Rance in France has generated tidal power reliably for over 35 yearsThe Severn Barrage


Barrage Barrage OperationOperationThe Severn Barrage


Barrage Layout (1989 Barrage Layout (1989 Report)Report)

• 216 Turbines, 40MW each, 8640MW total

• 166 Sluices 35,000m2

• Ship Locks

• Small Locks

• Public Road

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Facts and Facts and FiguresFigures

Annual Output 17 TWh (~5% of UK consumption)Annual Output 17 TWh (~5% of UK consumption)

Installed Capacity 8640 MW Installed Capacity 8640 MW

Savings of COSavings of CO22 emissions: 18Mt per year compared to emissions: 18Mt per year compared to Coal;Coal; (equivalent to 3% of total UK Carbon emissions) (equivalent to 3% of total UK Carbon emissions)

Renewables Obligation: Renewables Obligation:

15% by 2015 (50-55TWh) - Barrage cannot 15% by 2015 (50-55TWh) - Barrage cannot contribute contribute

20% by 2020 would require a further 17TWh. 20% by 2020 would require a further 17TWh. Barrage could contribute all of this - if sanctioned Barrage could contribute all of this - if sanctioned soonsoon

Capital Cost £8bn 1989 Capital Cost £8bn 1989 ~£14bn 2005 – needs re- ~£14bn 2005 – needs re-estimateestimate

Security of supply benefitSecurity of supply benefit

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Power Generation (Spring Power Generation (Spring Tide)Tide)The Severn Barrage


Power Generation (Neap Power Generation (Neap Tide)Tide)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

00:0

0

03:0

0

06:0

0

09:0

0

12:0

0

15:0

0

18:0

0

21:0

0

00:0

0Time of Day (hrs)

Dem

and

(GW

)

Typical Winter Demand

Barrage Output MeanNeap Tides

Base Load supplied byNuclear, Gas andImports

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Flexibility of OutputFlexibility of Output

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0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.000

:00

01:0

0

02:0

0

03:0

0

04:0

0

05:0

0

06:0

0

07:0

0

08:0

0

09:0

0

10:0

0

11:0

0

12:0

0Time after High Tide

Bar

rage

Out

put (

GW

) 2 hours afterhigh tide

6 hours afterhigh tide

Plant Output Limited

Water Limited


Environmental Studies 1989Environmental Studies 1989

A total of 70 studies, with a budget of £2m, A total of 70 studies, with a budget of £2m, covering: covering:

• Hydrodynamics (tides, currents, waves)Hydrodynamics (tides, currents, waves)

• Sediments, Salinity, Water Quality, DrainageSediments, Salinity, Water Quality, Drainage

• Ecology, Birds, FishEcology, Birds, Fish

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Environmental Balance ?Environmental Balance ?

• Loss of the unique harsh environmentLoss of the unique harsh environment

• Some birds may lose habitat Some birds may lose habitat

• Marine life and other birds will increaseMarine life and other birds will increase

• Flood protection to estuary and riversFlood protection to estuary and rivers

• Carbon SavingCarbon Saving

The environmental assessment needs to be updated to account for the changes in the

Estuary since the 1980s and also the changes in legislation

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Transport Key IssuesTransport Key Issues

Ports and Ports and ShippingShipping

• Forecast ShippingForecast Shipping Movements Movements

• Size of Locks to Size of Locks to suit suit Avonmouth docksAvonmouth docks

Road and RailRoad and Rail

• Cost-benefit of a Cost-benefit of a Barrage Barrage

CrossingCrossingThe Severn Barrage


Construction : Prefabricated CaissonsConstruction : Prefabricated CaissonsThe Severn Barrage


• 1989 report identified 1989 report identified potential UK sites shownpotential UK sites shown

• Potential Sites in EuropePotential Sites in Europe

• Project and Employment Project and Employment Benefits of using many Benefits of using many sitessites

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Caisson Caisson ConstructiConstruction Siteson Sites


ConstructioConstruction Sequencen Sequence (1989 Report)

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Turbine InstallationTurbine InstallationThe Severn Barrage


9m Diameter Bulb Turbine9m Diameter Bulb TurbineThe Severn Barrage


EmploymentEmployment(1989 report)

• 200,000 man years for construction200,000 man years for construction

• 35,000 jobs at construction peak, distributed 35,000 jobs at construction peak, distributed over over the UK, about half in the Severnside the UK, about half in the Severnside regionregion

• 10,000 - 40,000 permanent jobs in the 10,000 - 40,000 permanent jobs in the regionregion

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Economics of the ProjectEconomics of the Project

Preliminary work in 2005 shows a positive Preliminary work in 2005 shows a positive return:return:

• carbon credits are necessarycarbon credits are necessary

- ROCs buyout- ROCs buyout

- ROCs recycle- ROCs recycle

valued by ILEX (April 2005 Central value)valued by ILEX (April 2005 Central value)

• external benefits are additionalexternal benefits are additional

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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Cost ILEX April2005 spot

marketforecast

ActualPrice

7 Dec 05

Tax

Equity Return

Transmission Opex

Transmission Capex

Barrage Opex

Barrage Capex

Cost – Price relationshipCost – Price relationship

ROC recycle

ROC buyout

Wholesale electricity price

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p/kWh

April 2005 money


0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8 Security of supply

Increased land &

property values

Job creation

Inward investment

Shared grid

strengthening costs

Flood damage

avoidance

Value of ExternalitiesValue of Externalities

p/kWh

These These indicative indicative values are a values are a key part of the key part of the project valueproject value

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Outline Program for Outline Program for ImplementationImplementation

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7. Concluding Thoughts7. Concluding Thoughts

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Concluding ThoughtsConcluding Thoughts• The Severn Barrage is one of very few projects The Severn Barrage is one of very few projects in the UK which could bring the UK’s “electricity in the UK which could bring the UK’s “electricity from renewables” commitment back on target by from renewables” commitment back on target by 20202020

• The ‘real’ solution to the renewables targets is The ‘real’ solution to the renewables targets is not ‘large projects’ not ‘large projects’ versusversus ‘small projects’ – both ‘small projects’ – both will be necessary – cf. Socolow’s wedgeswill be necessary – cf. Socolow’s wedges

• Following the ‘Triple Bottom Line’ analysis, there Following the ‘Triple Bottom Line’ analysis, there are Economic, Environmental and Societal benefitsare Economic, Environmental and Societal benefits

• The Barrage is a truly renewable, sustainable, The Barrage is a truly renewable, sustainable, predictable, indigenous source of electricity, which predictable, indigenous source of electricity, which provides real security of supply provides real security of supply

• If not the Severn Barrage, then what?If not the Severn Barrage, then what?The Severn Barrage


What is the Severn What is the Severn Barrage and what will Barrage and what will

it do?it do?

Thank you for your attention Thank you for your attention during this presentationduring this presentation

Environmental Decision-Making –Does Theology Help?Trinity College Bristol

10 March 2007


Sediment Sediment TypesTypes

Rock & Gravel

Sandy Area

-5m OD Contour Line

Muddy AreaThe Severn Barrage


Main effects of the BarrageMain effects of the Barrage

• Tide Range reduced from 14m to 7m Tide Range reduced from 14m to 7m (springs)(springs)

Smaller inter-tidal areaSmaller inter-tidal area

• Reduction of Sediment in SuspensionReduction of Sediment in Suspension

Improved water qualityImproved water quality

Greater ecological productivityGreater ecological productivity

The Severn Barrage


Reduced sediment in Reduced sediment in suspensionsuspension

Currents will be reduced within Barrage leading to:Currents will be reduced within Barrage leading to:

A large reduction in suspended sedimentA large reduction in suspended sediment

A more stable seabedA more stable seabed

Sunlight penetration through the water columnSunlight penetration through the water column

An Increase in dissolved oxygen to more normal An Increase in dissolved oxygen to more normal levelslevels

These changes will result in colonisation by a range These changes will result in colonisation by a range of estuarine organisms (absent in the existing of estuarine organisms (absent in the existing harsh regime) and an increase in bird species and harsh regime) and an increase in bird species and numbersnumbers

The Severn Barrage


Areas at Risk from Areas at Risk from FloodingFlooding

Cardiff

Bristol

Gloucester

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Flood protection in the Flood protection in the Severn Estuary and RiversSevern Estuary and Rivers

• Flooding in the estuary can occur when extreme Flooding in the estuary can occur when extreme high tides coincide with storm surgeshigh tides coincide with storm surges

• Flooding in the rivers can occur when these Flooding in the rivers can occur when these same sea conditions coincide also with high river same sea conditions coincide also with high river flowsflows

• The water level in the basin can be controlled - The water level in the basin can be controlled -

To prevent the flooding in the estuary To prevent the flooding in the estuary (upstream of the barrage) (upstream of the barrage)

To avoid obstruction to river flow caused by To avoid obstruction to river flow caused by high tideshigh tides

The Severn Barrage


Use Of Barrage for Flood Use Of Barrage for Flood ProtectionProtection

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engineered solutions international what is the severn barrage and what will it do? euring prof ian...

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