engr 597 session 10 mobile and area sources of ghg and ...home.olemiss.edu/~cmchengs/global...

Dr. Waheed Uddin Copyright 2009 1

Waheed Uddin PhD P E

Lecture 12March 23, 2009

7:00 to 8:15 PM, 211 Carrier

ENGR 597 Session 10Global Warming - Causes, Impacts and Solutions

Waheed Uddin, PhD, P.E.Professor and Director, CAIT

Department of Civil EngineeringThe University of Mississippi

[email protected]://www.olemiss.edu/projects/cait/Index.html

• Economic prosperity is tied to well-built and maintained infrastructure...to provide mobility and services

transportation, water supply, sewage and solid waste disposal, power generation and energy facilities, sports

l k h h i l

Mobile and Area Sources of GHG and Abatement Strategies

22Dr. W. Uddin Copyright © 2009

complexes, amusement parks, theatres, hospitals, industrial facilities, communication towers, structures for space programs.

• Transportation infrastructure built to provide mobility, sustain quality of life, promote economic prosperity, and …?

• Protecting the environment (not until late 1960’s).

• Quantifying traffic and built environment impacts on mobility and traffic congestion

• Evaluation of traffic and built environment impacts on GHG

Objective / GoalsObjective: To assess impacts of mobile and area sources of air pollution and greenhouse gases and evaluate abatement strategies

Goals:


• Evaluation of traffic and built environment impacts on GHG emissions and global warming

• Assessment of traffic and built environment impacts on air quality and public health

• Application of remote sensing and geospatial technologies and air pollution models for traffic visualization, environmental assessment

• Evaluation of abatement strategies

Transportation Impacts on Society

• Providing efficient public mobility and safety during disasters.

• Commuting to workplace, delivery of goods and services

• Accessing consumer services and other modes

• Creating create new businesses and increase jobs

44Dr. W. Uddin Copyright © 2009Dr. W. Uddin Copyright © 2009

• Good transportation network is imperative for economic

prosperity and growth• Paved road density in km per million inhabitants is strongly

associated with the gross national product (GNP);above 6,000 km per million inhabitants for high-income economies in industrialized nations

Roads represent the largest public infrastructure investment.

• The GNP per capita reflects a country’s total market value of the goods and services produced annually divided by the population.

Sustainable and Efficient Transportation


World Bank’s Research Report

Paved Road Density Comparison for Selected

Industrialized and Developing Countries

USACentral &Eastern

14,00016,00018,00020,000

illio

n

paved road density, km/million pop



USACentral &Eastern

14,00016,00018,00020,000

illio

n




USACentral &Eastern

14,00016,00018,00020,000

illio

n


Transportation Related Economic BenefitsUddin’s Research PapersUSAID Research


TurkeyTajikistan

EU

ChinaBrazilIranIndia

JapanAfghanistan

Pakistan

Eastern Europe

2,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,000

USA EU

C & E Euro

peJa

pan

Tajikist

anTurk

ey

Pakist

an India

Iran

Brazil

China

Afghan

istan

Countries

Pave

d R

oad

Den

sity

, km

/mi

inha

bita

nts

66.5 m6.6 m290 m 1.3 b

175 m66.1 m1 b128 m 26.8 m145 mPop-

ulation

0

TurkeyTajikistan

EU


JapanAfghanistan

Pakistan

Eastern Europe

2,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,000

USA EU

C & E Euro

peJa

pan

Tajikist

anTurk

ey

Pakist

an India

Iran

Brazil

China

Afghan

istan

Countries

Pave

d R

oad

Den

sity

, km

/mi

inha

bita

nts

TurkeyTajikistan

EU


JapanAfghanistan

Pakistan

Eastern Europe

2,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,000

USA EU

C & E Euro

peJa

pan

Tajikist

anTurk

ey

Pakist

an India

Iran

Brazil

China

Afghan

istan

Countries

Pave

d R

oad

Den

sity

, km

/mi

inha

bita

nts

66.5 m6.6 m290 m 1.3 b

175 m66.1 m1 b128 m 26.8 m145 mPop-

ulation

066.5 m

6.6 m290 m 1.3 b175 m66.1 m1 b128 m 26.8 m

145 mPop-ulation

0


Worldwide Vehicle Statistics Automobile Registration for Selected Countries, 1990 & 2002

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

ons (

thou

sand

s)

1990 2002

Source: ORNL24-p3-2 (Table 3.1)

Total = 222 million vehicles in 2002 in USASource: Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Brunei: 0.2 million vehicles?


0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

U.S.A. Japan Germany France U.K. Canada India China

Aut

omob

ile R

egist

ratio Pakistan: 5 million vehicles?

20 million

• Car ownership rates are highly correlated with per capita income.• In Europe and Singapore the rates are kept low through providing good public

transport and charging for the use of urban roads.

Transportation Infrastructure

88Dr. W. Uddin Copyright © 2009Dr. W. Uddin Copyright © 2009CAIT Research on Traffic Flow, GIS, Air Quality, and greenhouse gases

Cars emit 2-3 times more CO than diesel trucks.Diesel trucks produce 10 times more NOx than cars.

Idling long haul trucks consume 20 million barrels of diesel and produce 10 million tons of carbon emissions.


Aviation Related Pollution

1.5 million tons or 24 % of the world’s total carbon emission, 1990’s


Memphis International Airport

Space Missions


Fossil Fuels Impacts on Global Warming and Climate Change

Source: BBC.com Temperature rise 1.4 – 5.8 degree C by Year 2100

1948 2056



U.S. Petroleum and Liquids Supply, Consumption and Net Imports (million barrels per day)

U.S. Dependence on Imported Oil

Net Imports20 -

25 -

30 -History

s pe

r da

y

Projections

Consumption


(Source: Energy Information Agency, Annual Energy Outlook 2007)

2030

p

0 -

5 -

10 -

15 -

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Mill

ion

barr

els

Year

Domestic Supply

Average fuel consumption per vehicle decreasing from 1970 to 2000: 13.25%Average mileage per gallon increasing from 1970 to 2000: 40.60%

Average fuel consumption per vehicle (gal.)

1970 19801970Average fuel consumption for all vehicles: 830 gal.

Average mileage per gallon for all vehicles: 12.02 mi

1990 Average fuel consumption for all vehicles: 677 gal.


2000Average fuel consumption for all vehicles: 720 gal.


Average fuel consumption for all vehicles: 712 gal.Average mileage per gallon for all vehicles: 13.29 mi

Emission and Pollution Sources• A significant amount of air pollutants comes from transportation-related

mobile sources, including highway motor vehicles and aviation activities.

Miscellaneous 10.9 %

Transportation 49.2 %

Fuel Combustion

45.4 %

Miscellaneous 1.5 %

F l C b ti

Miscellaneous 4.5 %


EPA Criteria Pollutant Emissions by Source in USA, 1997Source: National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report, 1997



Fuel Combustion 5.5 %

Industrial Processes

6.9 %

CO


3.9 %NOx

Fuel Combustion 4.5 %


51.2 %

4.5 %

VOC

Percent Change of Transportation, Economic and Population Indicators, 1980 - 2005

20

40

60

80

100

120

Perc

ent C

hang

e


0

Licenced

Driv

ers

Vehicl

e Mile

s Tra

veled

Moto

r Veh

icle R

egistr

ation

Real G

DP

Employmen

t

Populat

ion G

rowth

IndicatorsSource: U.S. Government Printing Office. U.S. Statistical Abstract, 2007 and 2006. (Includes inflation adjustment. U.S. DOT, Highway Statistics, 2005.)

8.75.7

19.6 20.84.55.6

N th t

Percentage Change in Metropolitan and Non-metropolitan Populations by Region in U.S. 1990 to 2000

13 9

Metropolitan Nonmetropolitan


MidwestWest

11.5

19.3

South

Northeast10.2

13.9

United States

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 200 and 1990 census.

U.S. Households by Size: 1970 to 2000(Percent Ditribution)

17 5 17.3 16.415.8

15.7 15.5 14.620.9

12.8 10.4 10.45 or more people

4 people


17.1 22.7 24.6 25.5

28.931.4 32.3 33.1

17.3

17.5

1970 1980 1990 2000

3 people

2 people

1 person


U.S. Mobile Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions, 1990-2004

U.S. GHG Emissions from Mobile Sources (Tg CO2 Eq.)

Gas 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Percent Change

(1990-2004)


(1990-2004)CO2 1,476.2 1,565.3 1,782.3 1,768.1 1,813.1 1,815.5 1,870.4 +27%

http//www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/pdf/chapter2.pdf,p. 16.

GHGs from transportation represent 33% of total U.S. GHG emissions.

1,600

1,800

2,000

HG

, Tot

al

U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Mobile Sources (Tg CO2 Eq.)


1,000

1,200

1,400

1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004Year

(CO

2) G

H

http//www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/pdf/chapter2.pdf, p. 16.

400

600

800

hous

e E

mis

sion

s, ot

al

Cars

Light Trucks

Other Highway

Aircraft

U.S. GHG Emissions from All Mobile Sources, by Vehicle Type (CO2)

29 % Increase in all mobile GHG emissions over 15 years (about 2% per year)


0

200

1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Year

Veh

icle

Gre

enh T Aircraft

Marine

Locomotives

Mobile Air Conditioners andRefrigerated TransportationOther

Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2004, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2006, U.S. Department of Transportation Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting: Data

U.S. Transportation GHG Emission, 2004

Passenger CarsAircraft

Ships and Boats3%

Locomotives3%

Motorcycles,Pipelines and

Lubricants2%

Mobile AC andRefrigerated Transport

2%


Heavy-Duty Vehicles19%

Passenger Cars34%

Light-Duty Trucks28%

9%

81% from On-Road Vehicles(source: TRR2017)

Built-up Area and Population for Selected MSAs based on NLCD 1992 and Census 2000

1.311.32

3.25

1,600

2,000

2,400

2,800

3,200

up a

rea

[km

2 ]

1 5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

tion

[Mill

ions

]

Built-up area (NLCD 1992)MSA Population (Census 2000)

Built-up area calculated within 32km radial zone based on NLCD 1992 (Taken from Brown, 2006)

(By Carla Brown, 2006)


1.31

0.500.40 0.340.350.09

1.21

0.71

0

400

800

1,200

Bilt

-u

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Popu

lat

The EPA designations -- June 15, 2004. The 8-hour Ozonenonattainment areas (126) include 474 counties and are home to 159 million people.

Floor space by Building Type and Size for All Buildings in the United States, 2003 (Source EIA)


Building footprint can be extracted from high-resolution satellite imagery more cost-effectively than traditional aerial photography.

(courtesy: Scott Dooley, CAIT PhD student)


Electricity Consumption by Building Type and Size for All Buildings in the United States, 2003

(Source EIA)


Large urban built-up areas demand more energy causing more carbon emissions and consequently more air quality degradation.

(courtesy: Scott Dooley, CAIT PhD student)

Heat-island Effect in Oxford, MississippiAs temperature rises so does the likelihood that smog will exceed

national standards of air quality; more power generation will produce more carbon emissions


34.8 °C

W E

Weighted average surface temperature over 2-km wide strip along E-W cross section

• Landuse, Urbanization and Social Integration• Built-up Area Effects on Environment (air, water)• Built Environment Impacts on Physical Inactivity

T ffi F t liti d I j i

Sustainable transportation & development must consider all these factors.

Societal Impacts of Built-Environment


• Traffic Fatalities and Injuries• Traffic Related Emissions and Air Pollution• Traffic Related Pavement Noise Impacts• Construction Process and Material Resources• Energy Demand and Diminishing Natural Resources

• CAIT air quality models implemented in Pisa, Italy

• Air pollution should be a concern in rural areas and many emerging urban areas.

Air Quality Management

August 3, 2004


Abu Dhabi Dubai

Emissions from CNG vehicles?g p ( )

March 2007

1,303 1,300

410334

1,454

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

r of

CN

G V

ehic

les

n T

hous

ands

)


334

142 125

0

200

400

Argentina Brazil Pakistan Italy India USA China

Country (in order of CNG use)

Num

be (in

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

PM? (Source: The Daily JANG, Karachi, Pakistan, March 31, 2007)

Vehicle miles traveled, 2002

Buses , 0.2%Other single-unit

trucks 2 7%

Combination trucks, 4.9% Automobiles

M otorcycles

T l f ti t k

Source: ORNL24-p3-1

USA: Vehicle fuel efficiency and emission control improving; Offset by more VMT

VMT: Number of vehicles in an area (AADT) x average travel distance (miles) x 3652.6 trillion per year


trucks, 2.7%

Automobiles, 58.1%

Motorcycles, 0.3%

Two-axle, four-tire trucks, 33.8%

Two-axle , four-tire trucks

Other single-unit trucks

Combination trucks

Buses

Total vehicle miles travelled, 2002 (billion miles) = 2,855.8

Total = 222 million vehicles in 2002Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratory


Traffic Congestion and Gridlock

U.S. Average Travel Time Index for All Urbanized Areas, 1995-2004

1 3

1.351.37 1.38

y = 0.029x + 1.2471.35

1.40

avel

Tim

e x


1.27

1.3

1.20

1.25

1.30

1995 1997 2000 2002 2004

Year

Ave

rage

Tra

Inde

Commuters spend 46 hours annually stuck in traffic and waste 5 billion gas annually.

Household Carbon Emissions

Natural Gas, 20%

The Automobile is the Largest Contributor to a Household’s Carbon Footprint


Electricity, 25%

Automobile Use*, 55%

*Typical two car household

*30% Saving due to Public Transportation

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

f CO

2 Sa

ved

per

year

(saves 20 pound per day)

Public Transportation – one for the most significant Actions to reduce household carbon footprint


0

500

1000

1500

2000

Taking transit to work

2nd Car

Replacing light bulbs

Replacing old refrigerator

Poun

ds o

f

Projected Growth in CO2 Emissions from Cars and Light Trucks

Assuming Status Quo Vehicle and Fuel Standards

Source: EIA 200700

%

130%140%150%160%170% VMT

CO2


Source: EIA AEO 200

2005

= 1

0

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 203070%80%90%

100%110%120%130%

MPG

Fuel GHG

1990 CO2

Projected Growth in CO2 Emissions from Cars and Light Trucks Assuming Stringent Nationwide Vehicle and Fuel Standards

Source: EIA 2007.

00%

130%140%150%160%170%

VMT

MPG

3535Dr. W. Uddin Copyright © 2009Dr. W. Uddin Copyright © 2009Source: EIA AEO 200

2005

= 1

0

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 203070%80%90%

100%110%120%130% MPG

CO2

Fuel GHG

1990 CO2

GHG Abatement Strategies

• The transportation sector accounts for 28 percent of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States and 33 percent of the nation’s energy–related CO2 emissions (EIA 2006, p. xvi; EIA 2007a, p. 15).

• The United States in turn is responsible for 22 percent of CO2


The United States, in turn, is responsible for 22 percent of CO2emissions worldwide and close to a quarter of worldwide GHG emissions (EIA 2007b, p. 93).

• It is hard to envision a “solution” to the global warming crisis that does not involve slowing the growth of transportation CO2emissions in the United States.


49%

60%

39%32%32%40%

50%

60%

70%

Change in UrbanizedLand

Growth of Population and Urbanized Land Area by Census Region between 1982 and 1997


32%

7%7%

22%

32%

0%

10%

20%

30%

West

South

Northea

st

Midw

est

Change inMetropolitanPopulation

Source: Fulton et al. 2001

New York Today on the Sustainability Scale

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Per Capita

7 19.6 11.1 11.2

24.5

10

15

20

25


5.9 7.1

0

5

10

London

New Y

ork C

ity

Toron

to

San D

iego

San Fra

ncisco

United Stat

es

Source: NYC Mayor’s Office of Long – Term Planning and Sustainability

Transport and Development—Challenges and Impacts

(Source World Bank)● CO2 Emission per ton km (grams CO2 per ton-km)

Train: 25 Barge: 35 Road: 130● Urban populations in developing countries are rapidly expanding

China: 300 million more urban dwellers by 2020India: 200 million more urban dwellers by 2020

I i l d b i


CHINA

● Improve spatial management and urban transport options� Structure urban development with adequate transport policies and systems� Manage efficiently the urban/rural/regional interfaces� Develop and implement enhanced GIS-based transport infrastructure asset

management systems

• California’s Climate Action Team (2007) expects “smart land use and intelligent transportation system (ITS)” to make the second – largest contribution toward meeting the state’s ambitious GHG reduction goals.

California’s Abatement Strategies

Compact Development Sprawl


Medium to high densities Low densities

Mixed uses Single uses (residential, commercial..)

Centered development Strip development

Interconnected streets Poorly connected streets

Pedestrian – and transit – friendly design Auto – oriented design

Source: Ewing 1997; Ewing, Pendall, and Chen 2002

Abatement Strategies to Protect Clean Air and Reduce GHG Emissions

• Conservation and compact urban growth… by all government levels and by public

• Efficiency in vehicles and traffic flow... by vehicle manufacturer,

Energy only 4 % from clean sources ─ not applicable for transportation; how to reduce transportation emissions?


y yconsumers, transport agencies

• Better commercial truck fleet management.. by transporters• Public mass transit, HOV, car pooling, flexible work hours…..• Non-motorized transport…… by government levels and by public• Equity in road user charges for pollution and VMT• Clean fuel and energy sources (LPG, CNG, Hydrogen, Hydraulic,

Nuclear)…. By all

Win-Win (for society and environment)

Sustainability•• Enhancing health, Safety and Security.Enhancing health, Safety and Security.•• Conserving Energy and Enhancing the Environment.Conserving Energy and Enhancing the Environment.•• Creating Equitable and Livable Communities.Creating Equitable and Livable Communities.•• Promoting Economic Prosperity.Promoting Economic Prosperity.‘Sustainable Transport’ (World Bank 1996)


‘Sustainable Transport’ (World Bank 1996)� EconomicEconomic�� FinancialFinancial�� EnvironmentalEnvironmental�� SocialSocial

} Sustainable Development

• Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.

engr 597 session 10 mobile and area sources of ghg and ...home.olemiss.edu/~cmchengs/global...

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