A risk assessment of the impact

of climate change on human

health & well-being, including

potential impact upon animals

Prof. Matthew Baylis1, Dr. K. Marie McIntyre1,

Dr. Cyril Caminade2, Dr. Andy Morse2

1 Liverpool University Climate & Infectious Diseases of

Animals (LUCINDA) research group, School of

Veterinary Science, University of Liverpool

2 Department of Geography, University of Liverpool

ENHanCE project (ERA NET Health & Climate in Europe)

What ERA-EnvHealth Network wanted -

A better understanding of how global warming climatic scenarios for

west European regions will translate over the next few decades into:

(i) direct impacts on soil-water ecosystems

(ii) the indirect effects this will have on human health

(iii) potential for adaptation or mitigation with respect to land use and

water resources

Three sub-themes -

Anthropogenic contaminants, pathogens, toxins in soil-water

Health impact estimation of global warming

Methodological improvements for understanding and modelling

health impacts as a result of changes in soil-water ecosystems

ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages

ENHanCE project –

ERA NET Health & Climate in Europe

ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages

Will most diseases respond to climate change or just a few?

Will there be a net increase or decrease in certain disease burdens?

Will most diseases respond to climate change or just a few?

Is it possible that the diseases ‘that matter most’ are the least likely

to respond to climate change?

How realistic is the threat to human health from climate change’s

future effects on infectious diseases?

WP 1. Identification of pathogens

Who’s included in western Europe?

ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages

Our framework

What are their known climate drivers?Literature search

How will climate change?Regional climate projections

How might they respond to climate change?Risk assessment

What might we try to do about it?Participatory Integrated Assessment

WHAT MIGHT REALLY HAPPEN?Integrated Assessment Scenarios

Which matter most?Decision Support Tool

What pathogens affect or threaten us?

ENHanCEd EID Pathogen Database

ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages

WP1. Identification of all pathogens of

humans and animals that occur in

western Europe and have known climatic

or environmental drivers

WP2. A Decision Support System for

identifying short-listed pathogens of highest

impact on human health and well-being

WP3. Projected climate and

environmental change in the region

WP4. Risk assessment and modelling of the response of high

impact diseases to future climate change

WP6. Integrated Assessment Scenarios of our future health and

well-being in Europe

WP7. Project Communication WP8. Project Management

WP5. Expert opinion of the societal response to changing

disease risk from climate and environmental change:

Participatory Integrated Assessment

Work package

structure

ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages

The bottom-up approach

Start by giving equal weight to all

pathogens, then look for climate drivers

Balanced approach; the highest-impact pathogens may

be largely insensitive to climate change

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Most previous assessments have been top-down, starting

(and often ending) with the premise that a few key vector-

borne pathogens of (usually) humans (malaria, dengue,

yellow fever) need urgent consideration

ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages

(Photo: Nicolai

V. Meyling)

(Photo: Nicolai

V. Meyling)

(Photo: Nicolai

V. Meyling)

ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages

WP1. Identification of all pathogens of humans and animals

division no_entities

Bacteria 122824

Environmental samples 23000

Invertebrates 114239

Mammals 3804

Phages 1745

Plants 162556

Primates 663

Rodents 2617

Synthetic 4505

Unassigned 21

Vertebrates 37795

Viruses 44714

518483

ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages

Removing: Env. Samples, Phages, Plants,

Synthetic, Unassigned = 326656 entities

ftp GUI GUI NCBI 1

st backend ENHanCEd EID 2

nd backend ENHanCEd EID ENHanCEd EID

(removal of plants, phages etc) (ID potentially pathogenic entities)

518483 entities

Pathogenic, potentially pathogenic,

non-pathogenic, free-living or

commensal = ?? entities

ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages

ENHanCEd

Emerging

Infectious Diseases

(EID) database

Sql Server 2005

ASP.NET 2.0, 3.5

Virtual Earth

Confluence

Telerik, yFiles

Matlab

Web-based multi-user

Environment

(web application)

ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages

Items

Pathogens

MechanicalVectors

EnvironmentsPolygonPoints

Exit Material Entry RoutesTime

Intervals

References

Links

Comments

Taxonomy Trees

Hosts

How pathogens are transmitted

When and where host, vector, pathogen & climate

interactions occur

Critical (min, max) boundaries & optimum climate values

Attach ‘evidence’ and rate items

Enable sophisticated and efficient queries

Creator

Updater

Update/Creation Data/Time

Rating

Climate Variables

ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages

‘Squares’

ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages

ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages

WP2: Decision support system for

short-listing pathogens

WP2: Decision support system for short-listing

pathogens

Importance in terms of human health impact, animal health and

welfare, and economic impact across the target region

Humans - for instance number of people affected, Disability

Adjusted Life Years (DALYs)

Animals - for instance economic cost, welfare production losses,

costs of prevention

Stakeholders

Defra, HPA and/or DoH, NHS, NFU, NERC, Veterinary

Medicines Directorate, MOD

FAO, WHO, OIE

ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages

Linking climate and EID data

Temperature

Maximum summer temperature

Minimum summer temperature

Mean summer temperature

Maximum winter temperature

Minimum winter temperature

Mean winter temperature

Days of temperature under 0oC

Days of temperature over 30oC

Mean annual temperature

Annual temperature variation

Day-degrees

Humidity

Minimum relative humidity

Rainfall

Total summer rainfall

Total winter rainfall

Total annual rainfall

Summer rainy days

Winter rainy days

Seq. days no rain

Seq. days rain

Wind speed

Maximum wind speed

Mean wind speed

Seasonality

Known seasonality

Plots of seasonal patterns

ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages

ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages

Pathogen survival outside host

Pathogen rate of development outside host

Pathogen development rate in host

Vector biting rate

Vector survival rate

Prof. Matthew Baylis

Dr. Jenny Newman

Mrs. Susan Baker

Dr. Andy Morse

Dr. Cyril Caminade

Prof. Malcolm Bennett

Dr. Helen Clough

Dr. Christian Setzkorn

Department of GeographyProf. Pim Martens

Dr. Maud Huynens

Ms. Su-Mia Akin

Dr. Serge Morand

Ms. Agnes Waret

Dr. John R. Stephenson

Dr. Steve Leach

Mr. Jolyon Medlock

Dr. Peter Stevenson

Prof. Ed Maltby

Mr. Tom West

Acknowledgements