enrique ortega, fea – unicamp, 8/02/2006 ciclos naturais e panarquia
TRANSCRIPT
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Enrique Ortega, FEA – Unicamp, 8/02/2006
Ciclos naturais e Panarquia
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The model of the adaptive cycle was derived from the comparative study of the dynamics of ecosystems.
It is meant to be a tool for thought.
Adaptive cycle
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System’s dynamics, adaptive cycle, after Holling (1986)
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It focuses attention upon processes of destruction and reorganization, which are often neglected in favor of growth and conservation.
Including these processes provides a more complete view of system that links together system organization, resilience and dynamics.
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Traditionally ecology has focused on the concept of succession that describes the transition from a time when exploitation (i.e., the rapid colonization of recently disturbed areas) is emphasized to a time when conservation (i.e., the slow accumulation and storage of energy and material) is emphasized.
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Our current understanding of ecological dynamics however indicates that two additional functions - release and reorganization - are needed.
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An adaptive cycle that alternates between long periods of aggregation and transformation of resources and shorter periods that create opportunities for innovation, is proposed as a fundamental unit for understanding complex systems from cells to ecosystems to societies.
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For ecosystem and social-ecological system dynamics that can be represented by an adaptive cycle, four distinct phases have been identified: Growth or exploitation (r) Conservation (K) Collapse or release (omega) Reorganization (alpha)
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The adaptive cycle exhibits two major phases (or transitions). The first, often referred to as the foreloop, from r to K, is the slow, incremental phase of growth and accumulation. The second, referred to as the backloop, from Omega to Alpha, is the rapid phase of reorganization leading to renewal.
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During the slow sequence from exploitation to conservation, connectedness and stability increase and a capital of nutrients and biomass (in ecosystems) is slowly accumulated and sequestered.
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Competitive processes lead to a few species becoming dominant, with diversity retained in residual pockets preserved in a patchy landscape.
While the accumulated capital is sequestered for the growing, maturing ecosystem, it also represents a gradual increase in the potential for other kinds of ecosystems and futures.
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For an economic system, the potential could be the skills, networks of human relationships, and mutual trust that are incrementally developed and tested during the progression from r to K.
Those represent a potential developed and used in one setting, that could be available in transformed ones.
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Adaptive cycles are nested in a hierarchy across time and space which helps explain how adaptive systems can, for brief moments, generate novel re-combinations that are tested during longer periods of capital accumulation and storage.
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These windows of experimentation open briefly, but the results do not trigger cascading instabilities of the whole because of the stabilizing nature of nested hierarchies.
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In essence, larger and slower components of the hierarchy provide the memory of the past and of the distant to allow recovery of smaller and faster adaptive cycles.
A nest hierarchy of adaptive cycles represents a panarchy.
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1. Exploitation (organization into a new political/social system),
2. Conservation (maintenance and proliferation of the new system),
3. Release (revolution) and 4. Reorganization (regime change to
a new paradigm).
The adaptive cycle has four phases:
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The system reaches its highest potential and connectedness at the end of the conservation phase then declines.
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Oscillations of cycles of production and consumption!
Expansion and contraction of area under influence!
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Acentuado crescimento per capita só depois de 1820 Causa: inovação tecnológica organizada
Gráfico: The Economist, 31.12.1999
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The End!