enthralled by the immediate v5.0 - building a smarter la - team sixthirty - 25mar2016
TRANSCRIPT
Team SixThirty ConferenceBuilding a Smarter Los Angeles – 25 March 2016
Mark Dixon – Executive Architect – Smarter Cities Solutions - IBM [email protected] / [email protected]
Enthralled by the ImmediateWhy humans have not adopted Smarter Cities technologies faster
A Biological Perspective
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Disclaimer
The ideas and assertions presented herein are mine and mine alone. They should not be construed to be the opinions of the organization by whom I am employed.
I have attempted, in good faith, to perform due diligence in “fact-checking” all relevant information provided in this presentation.
Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but not their own facts.”
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Themes
“Every great architect is -- necessarily -- a great poet. He must be a great original interpreter of his time, his day, his age.”
“The architect must be a prophet . . . if he can't see at least ten years ahead, then don’t call him an architect.”
– Frank Lloyd Wright
“The interest of the man must be connected with the constitutional rights of the place...But what is government itself, but the greatest of all reflection on
human nature? If men were angels, no government would be necessary.
– James Madison
“Humanity is a biological species in a biological world...we are exquisitely well adapted to live on this particular planet. Although exalted in many ways, we remain an animal species of the global fauna.”
– Edward O. Wilson
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Agenda
● Historical Perspectives
● 21st Century Challenges
● Governance SitRep
● Enthralled by the Immediate
● Going Forward...
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Historical Perspectives
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
» - George Santayana
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Historical Perspectives More recent and esoteric works...
3d-printers – replication
2000
First description of cyberspace
2003
Virtual collaboration and avatars
1991
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Historical Perspectives Machine Intelligence...
58 years ago... 5 years ago...
HAL . . . . . . . IBM
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Historical Perspectives Personal Communication Devices
87 years ago... 4 years ago...50 years ago...
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21st Century ChallengesSidebar: Context
“ 'What the hell is a millisecond?'...Light in a vacuum travels at 186 miles a millisecond...Physics is physics”.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/06/magazine/flash-boys-michael-lewis.html
How long did it take George Washington to find out he had been elected POTUS?
Now
.8seconds
Then
8days
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Historical PerspectivesRecycling
Recycling wastewater
”...communities across the state, including Sonoma Valley, are turning rivers of raw sewage
into clean water...[its] certified organic”
Circa 1973... Circa 2011...
SONOMASONOMA
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Historical PerspectivesObesity
1990 2000 2010
http://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/adult.html
A Sofalarity, not a Singularity...
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Historical Perspectives Popular Culture: Dystopian views...more prevalent?
“The Lottery”by Shirley Jackson - 1948
“The Most Dangerous Game”
by Richard Connell - 1924
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Historical PerspectivesThe Ancient Greek Perspective...
“Those who cannot remember [understand] the past are condemned to repeat it.”
» - George Santayana
1974
Our Past is laid out before us...
...and our Future is rushing up from behind.
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Historical Perspectives A view from Harvard and MIT
“We have created a Star Wars civilization, with Stone Age emotions, medieval institutions, and god-like technology...We are terribly confused by the mere fact of our existence, and a danger to ourselves and to the rest of life.”
•» – Edward O. Wilson
“...it appears that much of the preparation nature has invested in us...is failing us. Our neuroanatomy is tuned
to respond to sudden, dramatic changes in our environment...We focus on immediate needs and
problems, and are trapped by the illusion that what is most tangible is most real. We’ve been conditioned for
thousands of years to identify with our family, our tribe, and our local social structures. A future that asks us to
overcome this conditioning...looks alien indeed."
» – Peter M. Senge
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Agenda
● Historical Perspectives
● 21st Century Challenges
● Enthralled by the Immediate
● Governance SitRep
● Going Forward...
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21st Century ChallengesHuman population growth: AD 0 to 2050
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/numb-nf.html
AD 0: 300 million
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21st Century ChallengesHuman population growth: AD 0 to 2050
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/numb-nf.html
AD 1000: 310 million
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21st Century ChallengesHuman population growth: AD 0 to 2050
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/numb-nf.html
AD 1800: 1 billion
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21st Century ChallengesHuman population growth: AD 0 to 2050
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/numb-nf.html
AD 1927: 2 billion
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21st Century ChallengesHuman population growth: AD 0 to 2050
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/numb-nf.html
AD 1960: 3 billion
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21st Century ChallengesHuman population growth: AD 0 to 2050
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/numb-nf.html
AD 1974: 4 billion
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21st Century ChallengesHuman population growth: AD 0 to 2050
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/numb-nf.html
AD 1987: 5 billion
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21st Century ChallengesHuman population growth: AD 0 to 2050
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/numb-nf.html
AD 1999 : 6 billion
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21st Century ChallengesHuman population growth: AD 0 to 2050
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/numb-nf.html
AD 2050 : 9 billion
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21st Century Challenges Human Migration Timeline
Image source: http://www.utexas.edu/features/2007/ancestry/graphics/ancestry5_medium.jpg
Pre-Humans – 2,000,000 years agoArchaic Humans – 500,000 years ago
200,000 yrs ago 100,000 yrs ago Present
Anatomically ModernHumans
Behaviorally ModernHumans
50,000 yrs ago
Settlements
Agriculture
Cities
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21st Century ChallengesHomo Sapiens Sapiens: The ultimate invasive species?
"I think computer viruses should count as life. I think it says something about human nature that the only form of life we have created so far is purely destructive. We've created life in our own image."
- Stephen Hawking
Man is the most insane species. We worship an invisible God and slaughter a visible Nature without realizing that this Nature is the invisible God we worship.
- HubertReeves
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21st Century ChallengesHuman population and the Keeling Curve (ppm CO
2)
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/7990
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21st Century ChallengesThe roots of Climate Change Science are almost 200 years old
Joseph Fourier(heat analytics)
Circa early-1800s
John Tyndall(infrared radiation/air)
Circa mid-1800s
Svante Arrhenius (greenhouse effect)
Circa late-1800s
this is cutting-edge 19th century science that we’re now refining.”
“...this is cutting-edge 19th century science that we’re now refining.”- Rear Admiral David W. Titley (Ret.)
Former Oceanographer and Navigator of the US Navy
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21st Century ChallengesClimate Change
"Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide" J. Hansen, D. Johnson, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, P. Lee, D. Rind, and G. Russell, Science, vol. 213, 1981, pp. 957-966.
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh and Rein HaarsmaKoninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI) April 2012
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21st Century ChallengesLimits to Growth – System Dynamics
1972
2002
2052
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/System_dynamics
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Situation ReportThe only Box we have...
Source: National Geographic Society – “State of the Earth: 2010”
There are now about
7 Billion people on
our planet...
“The future is already here… It is just not evenly distributed.” – Gibbons
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21st Century ChallengesSidebar: Science, Biomimicry and Philosophy
Physics Infrastructure
Chemistry
Biology
Platform
Software
ProcessLife
Digital Building BlocksNatural Building Blocks
Sapience Cognitive
InorganicPatterns
OrganicPatterns
BiologicalPatterns
SocialPatterns
MoQ Building Blocks
EthicalPatterns
http://www.moq.org/forum/mcwatt/anthony.html and http://www.quantonics.com/Anthony_McWatts_MoQ_Paper.html
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Agenda
● Historical Perspectives
● 21st Century Challenges
● Enthralled by the Immediate
● Governance SitRep
● Going Forward...
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Enthralled by the ImmediateDilbert said it on the internet, so it must be true...
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/109880240641/sciences-biggest-fail
...I’m on the side that says climate change, for example, is pretty much what science says it is because the scientific consensus is high. But I
realize half of my fellow-citizens disagree, based on pattern recognition.”
“We humans operate on pattern recognition...
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Enthralled by the ImmediateNeuroanatomical Architecture
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23036719 http://phenomena.nationalgeographic.com/2014/01/22/let-us-take-a-walk-in-the-brain-my-cover-story-for-national-geographic/
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Enthralled by the ImmediateNeuroanatomical architecture artifacts
Human Phobias - Irrational fears
Primitive Reflexes – your “lizard brain” at work
Cognitive Biases
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_phobiashttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primitive_reflexes
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Enthralled by the ImmediateBiological Programming – Human Phobias
What is the #1 human phobia in the world?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_dangerous_snakes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_mamba https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inland_taipan
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What is the #2 human phobia in the world?
Enthralled by the ImmediateBiological Programming – Human Phobias
https://www.livescience.com/13434-phobias-fears-acrophobia-heights-agoraphobia-arachnophobia.html
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Enthralled by the ImmediateBiological Programming – Human Phobias
What is the #3 human phobia in the world?
https://en.wikipedia.org/"Cumulus Clouds over Yellow Prairie2" by Wing-Chi Poon. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.5 via Commons -
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cumulus_Clouds_over_Yellow_Prairie2.jpg#/media/File:Cumulus_Clouds_over_Yellow_Prairie2.jpg
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Enthralled by the ImmediateBiological Programming – Human Phobias
What is the #4 human phobia in the world?
US THEM
https://www.livescience.com/13434-phobias-fears-acrophobia-heights-agoraphobia-arachnophobia.html
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Enthralled by the ImmediateBiological Programming – Human Phobias
What is the #5 human phobia in the world?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear_of_falling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visual_cliff
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Enthralled by the ImmediateBiological Programming – Human Phobias
What is the #6 human phobia in the world?
Do blank black screen next and kill all the lights...
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Enthralled by the ImmediateBiological Programming – Primitive Reflexes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moro_reflexhttps://www.nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/ency/images/ency/fullsize/17269.jpg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_lAFst43TE
The Moro Reflex – birth to 3-6 months
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Enthralled by the ImmediateBiological Programming – Primitive Reflexes
Palmar Grasp Reflex – 16 weeks (in utero) to 6 months
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primitive_reflexes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palmar_grasp_reflex
http://originsofmotherhood.com/images/Got_You_Daddy.jpg
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Enthralled by the ImmediateBiological Programming – Primitive Reflexes
Hypnic Jerk Reflex – lifetime
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primitive_reflexes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypnic_jerk
http://www.knowledge.info/sites/default/files/images/1/hypnic-Jerk.jpg
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Enthralled by the ImmediateBiological Programming – Primitive Reflexes
Pilomotor vestigal reflex (goose bumps) – lifetime
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primitive_reflexes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goose_bumps http://www.personal.psu.edu/afr3/blogs/SIOW/520905761_44867e4caa.jpg http://www.awf.org/sites/default/files/media/gallery/wildlife/Porcupine/Porcupine4.jpg
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Enthralled by the ImmediateBiological Programming – Cognitive Biases
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_bias https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases
• A systematic pattern of deviation from the norm or rationality in judgment
• A "by-product" of human processing limitations
• Illogical inferences about other people and situations
• People create their own "subjective social reality" - dictate[s] behavior
• Lead to perceptual distortion, inaccurate judgment and illogical interpretation
However...
• Can lead to more effective actions in a given context
• Enable faster decisions – timeliness vs accuracy
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Enthralled by the ImmediateBiological Programming – Cognitive Biases
http://www.businessinsider.com/cognitive-biases-that-affect-decisions-2015-8
Anchoring Bias – over-reliance on the first piece of information
Blindspot Bias – failing to recognize your own cognitive biases
Confirmation Bias – information that confirms our preconceptions
Ostrich Effect – ignore dangerous or “negative” information
Pro-Innovation Bias – over-valuing usefulness/under-valuing limitations
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Enthralled by the ImmediateBiological Programming – Cognitive Biases – Rock, Paper, Scissors
http://mentalfloss.com/us/go/77260
“...most humans have a tendency to make moves that are irrational, unconscious, and to some degree, predictable.”
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Enthralled by the ImmediateBiological Programming – Dunbar's Number
Dunbar's number is a suggested cognitive limit to the number of people with whom one can maintain stable social relationships. These are relationships in which an individual knows who each person is and how each person relates to every other person. Numbers larger than this generally require more restrictive rules, laws, and enforced norms to maintain a stable, cohesive group.
● Species-specific index of social group size (mean neocortical volume)● Correlation from non-human primates to predict human group size● Human "mean group size" of 148 (regression equation)● Large error measure (a 95% confidence interval of 100 to 230)
● Hunter-gatherer groups● Small – bands – 30-50 people● Medium – groups – 100-200 people● Large – tribes – 500-2,500 people
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunbar's_number
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Enthralled by the ImmediateBiological Programming – Dunbar's Number – W.L. Gore
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W._L._Gore_and_Associates
● Gore is a team-based, flat lattice organization that fosters personal initiative. There are no traditional organizational charts, no chains of command, nor predetermined channels of communication.
● Gore is one of the 200 largest privately held U.S. companies● 2014 was the 3rd consecutive year for World’s Best Multinational Workplaces ● For the 18th consecutive year, Gore earned a position on the FORTUNE 100
Best Companies to Work For® list in 2015. Gore ranked 17th overall. ● Gore has also been named one of the best workplaces in France, Germany,
Italy, Korea, Sweden, and the UK. And in 2013, for the first time, Gore was named one of the best workplaces in China.
● More than 35 million innovative Gore Medical Devices have been implanted, saving and improving the quality of lives worldwide.
● Gore has been granted more than 2,000 patents worldwide in a wide range of fields
● Virtually all of Gore's products are based on just one material, a versatile polymer called ePTFE (expanded polytetrafluoroethylene)
● $3 billion in annual sales and more than 10,000 associates worldwide, the company is owned by members of the Gore family and associates. Gore prefers this private ownership and believes this reinforces a key element of its culture to “take a long term view” when assessing business situations.
10,000 associates / 50 locations = 200 per location
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Agenda
● Historical Perspectives
● 21st Century Challenges
● Enthralled by the Immediate
● Governance SitRep
● Going Forward...
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Situation ReportThe Box...
If you're thinking outside the box, you're still in the box!
- Jon Fullinwider (Ex-CIO Los Angeles and San Diego Counties)
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Situation ReportBoxed In...
Historical trends return...The good ol' days will come back...
“Old Normal” “New Normal”
Government is challengedto redefine itself to becomemore efficient and cost effective
“We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used to create them...” – Einstein
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Situation ReportOur Inefficient Box...up to $15 Trillion wasted annually
How to read the chart:
As an example, the Healthcare system‘s value is $4,270B. It carries an estimated inefficiency of 42%. From that level of 42% inefficiency, economists estimate that ~34% can be eliminated (= 34% x 42%).
We now have the capabilities to manage a system-of-systems
planet...
Source: IBM economists survey 2009; n= 480 (*Estimate) – Chart shows “systems”, not “industries”.
System inefficiency as % of total economic value
Improvem
ent poten
tial as %
of system in
efficiency
Analysis of inefficiencies in the
...of which $4 Trillion could be eliminated*...
System-of-systems
$54 Trillion100% of WW 2008
GDP
Improvement potential
$4 Trillion7% of WW 2008
GDP
Inefficiencies$15 Trillion28% of WW 2008
GDP
Global economic value of:
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Situation Report The “unique” American Box...
“The Eternal Frontier” - An Ecological History of North America– Isolation: Both a Blessing and a Curse
– Geographic Isolation – a temperate zone between oceans, ice cap and isthmus
– Biological Isolation – native vs. invasive species – flora, fauna and human
– Political Isolation – freedom to start over – greenfield approach
Manifest Destiny – Westward Expansion– Geographic Enablers and Constraints - Rivers, Mountains, Deserts
– Conestoga Wagons and the Transcontinental Railroad
– Pony Express vs. the telegraph
– Cowboys and Immigrants – a “grass is greener” mentality
• Local Government Topologies – Distance to the County Seat– 200+ years ago – Eastern seaboard – one day's walk
– 100+ years ago – Western Expansion – one day's ride (horse or buggy)
– Today – almost irrelevant!
• Human Scale vs Global Scale in the US Local Government– Digital Infrastructure mapped to archaic Physical Infrastructure
– Unsustainable (resource consumption) and non-competitive (world economy)
Geographical and Political Evolution of Local Government Structures
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Situation ReportOur Local Government Box...2007 Census of Governments
“Real-world problems may not respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper
# of Local Governments by County (darker is denser)
89,476 89,476
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Situation ReportOur Future Boxes...Megapolitan America
“This is an extraordinary book. It completely and--in my largely lay judgment--correctly reorients our thinking about where our cities and communities are going both physically and in terms of actual living. What an extraordinary contribution to our thinking on these issues. This should be required reading--and I rarely say that--for every governor, mayor, legislator, city council member, Chamber of Commerce member, and, indeed, citizen!”
--Michael K. Young, President, University of Washington
USA population projected to be 400 million by 2040
23 megapolitan areas dominate the nation's economy by 2050 18 percent of the contiguous 48 states' land base more densely settled than Europe as a whole
Common characteristics Economic Landscape Social Cultural
Will change how America plans...
Map source: www.america2050.org
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Situation Report50% of the US population lives in 146 counties...
“Real-world problems may not respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper
http://www.businessinsider.com/half-of-the-united-states-lives-in-these-counties-2013-9 (Data: US Census Bureau)
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Situation ReportBoxed in: States can hold cities back...budget dependence...
“Real-world problems may not respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper
http://nextcity.org/daily/entry/state-control-city-tax-spend-fiscal-growth
67No plans...No blueprints...No architecture...a maintenance nightmare!
• 160 rooms• 2 ballrooms• 40 bedrooms • 6 kitchens• 2 basements • 47 fireplaces • 17 chimneys
• 38 years• $5.5M• 1257 windows • 467 doors• 52 skylights• 40 staircases• 367 steps
Staircase to Ceiling
Circular Staircase
Situation ReportThe Box we have built...
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Situation ReportChallenges to Service Delivery
● Physical Infrastructure● 2009 ASCE: Grade of “D”● $157 Billion/yr needed to 2020● $3.1 Trillion in lost productivity – 3.5M jobs
● Digital Infrastructure● The World Economic Forum ranked the US
35th out of 148 countries in Internet bandwidth● 150Mbps for $130/month - Verizon FiOS in NYC● Elsewhere in world - $50-$77/month
● Underfunded Pensions● Cities face $217 Billion gap (61 over 500K)● States face $1.38 Trillion Shortfall
● “The Charitable-Industrial Complex”● Peter Buffett OpEd NYTimes
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Situation Report The Great Regression
The Great Regression - http://www.cnbc.com/id/44876150
Danger to our physical and economic well-being2009 I-5 Skagit River bridge in WA – 3 injured2007 I-35W bridge in Minneapolis - 13 dead and 145 injured
Surface Transportation - $752 Billion by 202025% of bridges are structurally deficient or obsolete4,000 dams are in need of repairPort of LA - 39K truck trips daily due to insufficient freight rail
Electricity - $107 Billion by 2020Windstorm – 3.8M people in Mid-Atlantic states - 2012Equipment – 5M people in SoCal and AZ - 2011Cold weather – 1M people in Texas - 2011
Water - $84 Billion by 2020
Ports and Waterways - $34 Billion by 2020
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Situation ReportCurrent State of Digital Affairs...
“Keeping the lights on” or “putting out fires,” whatever tends to dominate the CIO’s work schedule.
NASCIO CIO survey:
33% say they spend 90% of time keeping the lights on.
40+% say they spend 75% of time on maintenance
50% say they spend 25% of time or less on “innovation”
30 percent said they spend just 5 % or less of time on “innovation”
http://www.govtech.com/management/7-Ways-to-Innovate-Government-IT.html
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Agenda
● Historical Perspectives
● 21st Century Challenges
● Governance SitRep
● Enthralled by the Immediate
● Going Forward...
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Going forward
“The best way to predict the future is to create/invent it.”
» – Moliere/Kay
“Gentlemen, we have run out of money. Now we have to think.”
– Winston Churchill
“You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.”
» – R. Buckminster Fuller
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Going ForwardAn awakening?
“You can't handle the truth!”
“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful people can change the world. Indeed, it's the only thing that ever has...”
- Margaret Mead
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Going ForwardTwo inter-related concepts
Regional Government Platform: Regional clouds for operational systemsOpen-source IT infrastructure and applications
Data is created every second of every minute of every hour; we now create 2.5 quintillion bytes of data per year. That is 2,500,000,000,000,000,000 bits of information.
http://www.businessofgovernment.org/sites/default/files/Realizing the Promise of Big Data.pdf
Cognitive Digital Democracy: Gaming, Simulation, Modeling (off-shift)XMILE: OASIS Standard for System Dynamics
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Going ForwardCognitive Digital Democracy: Trust issues...
http://insights-on-business.com/government/does-more-open-equate-to-greater-trust-in-government-not-necessarily
General Trust vs Trust in Government
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Going ForwardCognitive Digital Democracy: Open Data and Trust in Government
http://insights-on-business.com/government/does-more-open-equate-to-greater-trust-in-government-not-necessarily
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Going ForwardLessons from the crowdsourced law reform in Finland
1) People participate in a constructive way
2) The crowd is not delusional about potential impact on the law
3) Crowdsourcing creates learning moments
4) Crowdsourcing as knowledge search
5) The crowd is smart
6) Minority voices were not lost
http://www.businessofgovernment.org/sites/default/files/Realizing the Promise of Big Data.pdf
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Going ForwardScience...
https://mitpress.mit.edu/search/mitpress_search/michael%20batty http://discovermagazine.com/2012/oct/21-geoffrey-west-finds-physical-laws-in-cities
http://www.pnas.org/content/104/17/7301.abstract
Walking Speed/Size
Mammalian Heart Rate/Size
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Going ForwardNew Architecture for Smart Cities: Dr. Rick Robinson
http://theurbantechnologist.com/2012/09/26/the-new-architecture-of-smart-cities/
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Going ForwardEnthralled by the immediate
“...we fail to see the systemic issues because we define urgency by what is immediate. We are victims of a self-reinforcing crisis of perception – a crisis of our own making. If it persists, we doom ourselves to continued passivity.
Only catastrophe will compel action, which, given the growing social divide that distributes problems like global warming unevenly between rich and poor, is likely to manifest as social and political disruption – not unlike what we are already seeing around the world.
...nothing short of a profound shift in the Western, materialistic worldview is likely to dislodge this crisis of perception.”
- Peter M. SengeMIT Professor of Leadership
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Going Forward”Takin' on the jellies...you got serious thrill issues, dude!”
The Digital Druid's recommendation / challenge:
Build a cross-discipline, multi-semester course for Smarter Cities•
Business
Computer Science and Engineering
Public Policy
Environment / Urban Planning / Architecture
http://facultybio.haas.berkeley.edu/faculty-list/darwin-solomon
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Going ForwardDigital Intelligence
Data that’s coming
Customer recordsTransactional systemsPredictive models Institutional expertiseOperational systems
NewsEventsGeospatialWeatherSocial media
Internet of ThingsSensory dataImages Video
Data outside the firewall
Data you possess ++
Structured and active Unstructured and dark
Understand Reason Learn
Data > Information > Knowledge > Wisdom
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Going ForwardCognitive Computing
Think of all that has been accomplished using only
a fraction of the available data
Unlock the possibilities.
What answers lie in the 88% that is dark?1
By the year 2020, about 1.7 MB of new information will be created every second, for every human being on the planet.2
1 IBM Research2 “Big Data: 20 Mind-boggling Facts Everyone Must Read,” Forbes, Sept. 30, 2015
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Going ForwardCognitive Computing
Cognitive systems
interact with humans naturally to interpret data,
learning from virtually every interaction and proposing new possibilities through
probabilistic reasoning.
Programmable computing responds to requests and makes determinations, analyzing data according to predefined parameters.
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Going ForwardCognitive Computing
“IBM’s Watson is already being used to apply cognitive computing in a wide range of industries and technologies, from education to banking to winemaking to urban planning, and so much more.” - Fast Company
“Cognitive everything—by 2018, over 50 percent of developer teams will embed cognitive services in their apps (versus 1 percent today), providing U.S. enterprises with over USD$60 billion in annual savings in 2020.” - IDC
“We wanted it to be more personal and intuitive with natural language…. the results change dramatically as more questions are asked. And customers can ask questions which would not be possible with filters.” - The North Face
http://www.fastcompany.com/3055148/ibm-under-armour-team-up-to-bring-cognitive-computing-to-fitness-apps
https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=259850
http://www.theretailbulletin.com/news/artificial_intelligence_is_proving_popular_than_with_north_face_customers_18-01-16/
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Going ForwardCognitive Computing
50%say available data limits confidence in strategic decisions
95%
plan to invest in cognitive
Healthcare
believe they can’t deliver on consumer expectations
94%
plan to invest in cognitive
Retail
60% 30%say the quality of data is insufficient for business model innovation
98%
plan to invest in cognitive
Insurance
http://public.dhe.ibm.com/common/ssi/ecm/gb/en/gbe03731usen/GBE03731USEN.PDF
http://public.dhe.ibm.com/common/ssi/ecm/gb/en/gbe03689usen/GBE03689USEN.PDF
http://www-01.ibm.com/common/ssi/cgi-bin/ssialias?subtype=XB&infotype=PM&htmlfid=GBE03710USEN&attachment=GBE03710USEN.PDF
Gaps in organizational abilities
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Going Forward”The Savannah Theory of Happiness...”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/03/18/why-smart-people-are-better-off-with-fewer-friends/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26847844
“When smart people spend more time with their friends, it makes them less happy.”
[email protected]@gmail.com
@DigitalDruid0thedigitaldruid.org
Team SixThirty ConferenceBuilding a Smarter Los Angeles – 25 March 2016