Environment and Security in Eastern Europe

Aleh Cherp, Ph.D., Central European University

Alexios Antypas, Ph.D., Central European University

Environment and Security Linkages

Environment, Tensions, and Conflict Stability and Trust Through Environmental

Cooperation Interaction Between Environmental and Security

Policies and Measures Environment and Instability Aspects of Security

Environment, Tensions, and Conflict

Environmental factors can aggravate existing tensions between and within states

Conflict arises over scarce natural resources, or when distribution is unequal Scarcity may be absolute or relative Social processes through which resources are

distributed must be included in the environment and security framework

Violent conflict over resources is relatively rare, most tensions remain “sub-critical” Sub-critical tensions bread hostility, distrust, and an

unwillingness to co-operate

Stability and Trust through Environmental Co-operation

Co-operation over critical shared resources such as water has proven to foster stability in inter-state relations

Co-operation over low-tension issues (“no regrets” projects) can build trust Especially appropriate for situations in which distrust

and tension prevail Legal regimes create an atmosphere of

predictability and dialogue, and co-operation in critical areas such as information sharing and early warning systems

Interaction between Environmental and Security Policies and Measures

When elements of one policy area affects another: Environmental impacts of peacetime military

activities Energy policy Environmental policy integration in defence and

foreign affairs policies poses significant opportunities

Environment and Instability Aspects of Security

Trends that undermine social stability and therefore state stability Rapid demographic change Human health crises Mass migration

Environmental problems that undermine social institutions Over-exploitation of resources → decline of rural

economies Environmental pollution → health problems, migration

Regional Context

845,000 km2 60 million inhabitants Wedged between

“East” and “West” Conflicts, tensions, and

transformations: Transnistria, “Orange Revolution”, Crimea, energy security issues

Security Issues in Eastern Europe

Geopolitical Context

European Union interests include: Europeanization outside of the EU accession process “to make a particular contribution to stability and good

governance in our immediate neighbourhood and to promote a ring of well-governed countries to the East of the European Union….”

EU-Ukraine Action Plan, harmonization of laws, continued democratization and co-operation

EU-Moldova Action Plan, co-operation in helping settle Transnistria conflict

Environment as priority to help “avoid conflicts over scarce resources.”

Russian interests include: Maintaining transit to and from Western and Central Europe Protecting Russian minorities Retaining political and economic influence

Economic and Demographic Indicators

Environmental Legacies and Challenges of Transition The effects of Chernobyl Soviet-era industrialization and

environmental “hot spots” Military legacies of the Soviet-era Lack of attention to environmental

issues and under-funding of state institutions

Intensive use of natural resources Trade liberalization and

consumerism Environmental Sustainability

Index: Belarus: 47 out of 146 countries Moldova: 58 out of 146 countries Ukraine: 108 out of 146 countries

Interaction between Environment and Security Factors

Water Resources and Key Ecosystems

Environmental Hazards with Security Implications

Key Environmental Issues with Security Implications in Ukraine Continued environmental and social consequences of Chernobyl Industrial hot spots

Concentrated in Eastern Ukraine Pesticide Stockpiles

100 large and 5000 small sites, 19,406 tons 2000+ tons of POPs

Import of hazardous wastes Illegal import from Hungary of over 25,000 tons

Water management Water deficient areas Shared river basins Bystroe Canal

Black Sea and Sea of Azov Sever Pollution Collapse of fisheries

Transboundary biodiversity and Protected Areas 2 transboundary biosphere reserves Carpathian Convention

Security Issues with Environmental Implications in Ukraine Energy security

Heavy dependence on gas and oil imports from Russia 4 nuclear stations and large coal reserves Oil and gas exploration on Black Sea and Sea of Azov shelves

Melange 16,764 tons at 8 sites

Other military sites 2 million tons at 184 depots

Crimea Land disputes Potential disputes over oil and gas rights

Environment and Security Issues in UkraineWater Management

Land and Ecosystems

Hazardous Sites and Activities

Tensions Black Sea, Azov, Dniester, other rivers

Land disputes in Crimea

Stockpiles of banned pesticides; weapons; Chernobyl issues; waste import

Co-operation Black Sea, Azov, Dniester, Pripyat, other rivers

Polesye marshlands, Carpathians, border natural areas

Chernobyl issues

Interaction of E & S Policies and Measures

Development of domestic energy sources

Stockpiles of weapons and rocket fuel; Chernobyl issues

Disruption of Institutions

Drinking water quality & abundance

Land degradation Stockpiles of pesticides

Criteria for ENVSEC Interventions

Give high priority to actions likely to build trust and foster mutual learning

Attempt to address more than one Environment and Security theme in the same actions

Avoid overlapping with other programmesDraw on the unique capacity of the

ENVSEC Initiative to deal with complex multidimensional issues

Summary of Issues

The geo-political position of Eastern Europe strongly affects the way security and environmental issues interact in the region

EE does not experience outright conflict but rather tensions that can be exacerbated by unattended environmental problems or calmed by co-operation over the environment

In the medium and long term the “East-West” divide, population decline, economic restructuring, and energy dependence will have the potential to heighten transboundary and internal tensions and will keep environment and security issues high on the political agenda

Thank you !