Environmental Factors and Natural Resources in 2050: climate change, ecosystem degradation, and land

use

Gilbert F. White National Flood Policy ForumNovember 6-7, 2007

William H. HookeAmerican Meteorological Society

Forecasting…an iffy business

• “If present trends continue”

??? (strengths and limitations)

Forecasting…an iffy business

• Colliers magazine 1950’s

• Former Soviet Union breakup

If present trends (e.g., from previous talk) continue…

• The climate will continue to change (natural and human causes)

• Change will be global, regional, local, ongoing

• For the most part, we will regard this change as adverse

If present trends (from previous talk)* continue…

• Pressure on ecosystems, land use

• Zero margin

• Decline in the value of ecosystem services

• Far more vulnerable to extremes

• “fixes” unintended consequences “more heroic fixes”

*population growth, urbanization, (+ S&T advance)

What about the presentation ofclimate change, ecosystem

degradation?

not chronic and widespread,

so much as

acute, highly localized crises

The most vulnerable ecosystems, human populations will be hit earliest, hardest

Some counter-trends?

• Awareness

• Information (and other?) technology

• Distributed decision-making