environmental module and methodology for the assessment of data quality sust-rus 22. april 2010

Environmental Module and methodology for the assessment of data quality

SUST-RUS

22. April 2010

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Agenda

Timing of work packages and their components

Environmental Issues in Russian Federation

Environmental Module: Data Issues & Modeling Approach

Discussion

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WP0 Project management

WP1 Development of methodology

WP2 Data collection and analysis

WP3 General structure of the model

WP6 International dimension

WP7 Social dimension

WP5 Environmental dimension

WP4 Sustainability indicators

WP8 Linking the three dimensions of sustainability

WP9 Policy analysis including assessment of the model reliability

WP10 Dissemination of the project results

Construction of the set of the economic indicators (WP 4.3)


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Energy & Climate Issues

• Energy intensity (amount of energy consumed per unit of GDP) is higher than any of the world’s 10-largest energy-consuming countries.

• Russia’s energy intensity vs. countries of the former Soviet Union 1990-2005 is very high

Source: Worldbank and IFW (2008)

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Energy & Climate Issues

Source: Worldbank and IFW (2008)

Comparative Energy Intensity of Steel Production (2005)

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Environmental situation in Russia

• Climate change impacts (risks linked to permafrost degradation, increased frequency and intensity of extreme meteorological phenomena such as floods and winter melts )

• Air pollution levels exceed maximum allowable concentrations in major urban areas of Russia.

• Acidifying emissions lead to surface water acidification (e.g. in the border areas between Russia and Norway) and to heavy damages of forests (e.g. in Norilsk). Today around 50% of total SO2 emissions come from the five largest sources in the metallurgical industry. In future, SO2 emissions from the power sector will rise due to increasing competitiveness of coal against natural gas.

• Other problems: water quality and toxic waste (around 20-30% of drinking water does not meet quality standards)

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Russia’s strategy to combat air pollution

• Improving energy efficiency: 40% reduction of Russia’s energy efficiency by 2020 compared with 2007 levels (Presedent Medvedev signed a decree in June 2008); significant increase in energy efficiency of electric power sector (government order of Prime Minister Putin 2009)

• Climate Doctrine of the Russian Federation approved in 2009: Reduction of the share of energy generated from natural gas to 46% or 47% by 2030, doubling of nuclear power capacity, limit the burning of gas produced from oil wells, increase the use of renewable energy in electricity production to 4,5% by 2020

• Compliance with international agreements (e.g. UNFCCC / Kyoto; UNECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution / 1994 Oslo Protocol: 40% SO2 reduction compared to 1980 levels)

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Environmental sustainability indicators

• Define a set of sustainability indicators to assess Russia’s environmental performance within SUST-RUS modeling framework

• Policy-relevant indicator lists used at international and national level:

58 indicators / 19 related to environment - developed by the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development (2001)

79 structural indicators (SIs) / 18 related to environment – agreed upon between by the European Council an the Commission in order to assess the progress made towards the Lisbon strategy goals

Sustainable development indicators (EU SDIs) / About 55 indicators related to climate change and energy, sustainable consumption and production, sustainable transport, and natural resources - developed by the European Commission in order to measure progress towards the 2006 EU Sustainable Development Strategy (http://epp.EUROSTAT.ec.europa.eu)

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/

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• The following table lists indicators by whether they are (i) covered by standard CGE models (blue-green), (ii) in the scope of extended CGE models (yellow), or (iii) most likely beyond the scope of CGE models.

• EU SDIs are classified according to three levels:

– Level 1 indicators refer to overall lead objectives.

– Level 2 indicators correspond to priority objectives of the EU sustainable development strategy.

– Level 3 indicators refer to actions.

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EU-SDI - Level 1, 2, 3EU-SI Structural Indicators

UN CSD Indicators

Climate Change Emissions of GhG (Level 1) 010 Emissions of GhG Emissions of GhGGHG emissions by sector (including sinks) (Level 2)

GHG emissions intensity of energy consumption (Level 3)

GHG emissions by transport mode (Level 2)

EnergyGross inland energy consumption by fuel (Level 3)

020 Energy intensity of the economy

Intensity of energy use - Economic Indicator

Annual energy consumption per capita - Economic Indicator

Combined heat and power generation (Level 3)

030 Combined heat and power generation

Implicit tax rate on energy (Level 3)

040 Implicit tax rate on energy

Final energy consumption by sector (Level 3)Electricity consumption of households (Level_2)Energy consumption by transport relative to GDP (Level_1)

Selection of Indicators (Environmental)

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EU-SDI - Level 1, 2, 3 (Selection)

EU-SI Structural Indicators

UN CSD Indicators

Renewable Sources

Electricity generated from renewable sources (Level_3)

050 Electricity generated from renewable sources

Share of consumption of renewable energy resources - Economic Indicator

Share of renerwables in gross inland energy consumption (Level_1)Share of biofules in fuel consumption of transport (Level_3)

TransportVolume of freight transport relative to GDP (Level_3)

060 Volume of freight transport relative to GDP

Distance traveled per capita by mode of transport - Economic Indicator

Volume of passenger transport relative to GDP (Level_3)

070 Volume of passenger transport relative to GDP

Modal split of freight transport (Level_2)

080 Road share of inland freight transport

Modal split of passenger transport (Level_2)

090 Car share of inland passenger transport

Energy consumption by transport mode (Level_3)Investment in transport infrastructure by mode (Level_3)Motorisation rate of households (Level_3)Average CO2 emissions per km from new passenger cars (Level_3)

Indicators (Environmental) - (2)

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UN CSD Indicators

Ozone Layer Depletion

Emissions of ozone precursors by source sector / transport (Level_3)

Consumption of ozone depleting substances

Air QualityUrban population exposure to air pollution by ozone (Level_3)

100 Urban population exposure to air pollution by ozone

110 Urban population exposure to air pollution by particulate matter (Level_3)

110 Urban population exposure to air pollution by particulate matter

Emissions of acidifying substances by source sector (Level_3)

Ambient concentration of air pollutants in urban areas

Emissions of particulate matter by source sector / transport (Level_3)

AgricultureArable and permanent crop land areaUse of fertilizers

Use of agricultural pesticides

ForestsForest area as percent of land areaWood harvesting intensity

Forest trees damaged by defoliation (Level_3)Forest increment and fellings (Level_2)


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UN CSD Indicators

Dersertification Land affected by desertification

UrbanizationArea of urban formal and informal settlements

Oceans, Seas Algae concentration in coastal waters

and Coasts Percent of total population living in coastal areas

Fish catches taken from stocks outside of save biological limits (Level_1)

150 Fish catches from stocks outside of 'save biological limits'

Annual catch by major species

Resource Use, Waste,

Municipal waste generated (Level_2)

120 Municipal waste generated

Generation of industrial and municipal solid waste - Economic Indicator

Biodiversity, Water Resources

Municipal waste treatment, by type of treatment method (Level_3)

130 Municipal waste by type of treatment

Waste recycling and reuse - Economic Indicator

Generation of harzardous waste, by economic activity (Level 3)

Generation of harzardous waste / management of radioactive waste - Economic Indicators

Resource productivity (Level_1)

140 Resource productivityIntensity of material use - Economic Indicator


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UN CSD Indicators

BOD in water bodiesConcentration of faecal coloform in freshwater

Sufficiency of sites designated under the EU Habitats directive (Level_2)

160 Sufficiency of sites designated under the EU Habitats directive

Abundance of selected key species

Common bird index (Level_1) 170 Farmland bird index

Healthy life years and life expectancy at birth, by gender (Level_1)

180 Healthy life years at birth by gender

Life expectancy at birth - Social Indicator

Index of production of toxic chemicals, by toxicity class (Level_2)Population connected to urban waste water treatment with at least secondary treatment (Level_3)


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• Selection of policy-relevant indicators which correspond to our modeling framework:

1. CO2 emissions (per sector, per energy consumption)

2. Gross inland energy consumption by fuel

3. Electricity consumption of households

4. Final energy consumption by sector / transport (per GDP)

5. SO2 and NOx emissions by source sector (optional)

6. Regional depositions and ambient air concentrations (optional)

7. Waste (optional)

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The SUST-RUS environmental module: options • Two main tasks of the environmental module:

1. Modeling of Russia’s environmental development depending on economic acitivities;2. Modeling the impacts of environmental policies (including technical standards, energy and emission taxes, and tradable permits) on the behaviour of firms and households and thus on the Russian economy and environment

• At the best, SUST-RUS will include three environmental dimensions: climate change, deposition (transboundary pollution) of acidifying emissions, and ambient air quality (→ explore the synergies and trade-offs of local and regional air pollution control and of GHG mitigation policies).

• Check environmental dimensions with respect to practicability and data availability.

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The SUST-RUS environmental module: options Cimate change: CO2

• CO2 emissions are directly related to the fuel input used in production of sectors and in consumption of households

• Household activities might be linked to CO2 emissions via the use of so-called ‘durable goods’ (e.g. cars and heating systems in GEM-E3)

• CO2-emissions are computed with help of input-specific emission factors

• No end-of-pipe abatement technologies such as CCS will be included (still too expensive)

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The SUST-RUS environmental module: options Climate change: CO2

• The costs of climate policy (e.g. a carbon tax) are added to the fuel prices (→ user costs of energy). Since input decisions depend on relative prices, a change of relative prices affects input demands and CO2 emissions.

• Carbon policies affect the CO2 emission level via two channels: 1. substitution of fuels within existing technologies, 2. decline in production3. technological update.

Data requirement CO2• Region-specific energy balances: Energy consumption by region, sector,

fuel (disaggregated), and transport/heating• Share of energy-relevant use of fossil fuels in total fuel consumption

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Energy consumption in Russian iron and steel sector (2005, mtoe)

Source: Bashmakov et. al (2009)

The SUST-RUS environmental module: options

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Energy consumption in Russian iron and steel sector (2005, mtoe)

Source: Bashmakov et. al (2009)

The SUST-RUS environmental module: options

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The SUST-RUS environmental module: options Deposition of acidifying emissions: SO2, NOx

• SO2 and NOx emission levels depend on abatement (end-of-pipe) technologies such as flue gas desulfurization plants. The sector-specific user costs of energy now include also abatement costs.

• SO2 and NOx are transboundary pollutants leading to ambient air concentration and deposition far from the emitting source.

• Environmental feedback mechanisms could be introduced (see e.g. Bergman and Hill 2000 )

Data requirement SO2, NOx• Energy balances: Energy consumption by region, sector, fuel

(disaggregated), and transport/heating• Fuel-and sector-specific SO2 and NOx emission coefficients

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The SUST-RUS environmental module: options Data requirement SO2, NOx• Sector-specific marginal abatement cost functions (and separate

abatement cost functions for heating and cars). Common asumptions: Marginal abatement cost functions are increasing on a progressive scale in the amount of already abated emissions; firms in all regions have access to abatement technologies at the same costs.

Data sources: Russia-specific technology and cost databases for SO2: MOSES model (developed by TME, the Netherlands), the IIASA GAINS-Europe model (includes estimates for the European part of Russia and for NOx, PM, VOC), the GEM-E3 model (only for EU-countries)

• Transport matrices for SO2 and NOx (specific for Russia’s regions)

Data sources: Source-receptor calculations with the Unified (UN-ECE) EMEP model using meteorological and emission data; acid deposition monitoring network in East Asia EANET

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The SUST-RUS environmental module: options Data requirement SO2, NOx

• Parameters to convert total region-specific primary pollutants into concentration and deposition of secondary pollutants (values can be taken from GEM-E3 model)

• Damage function:

Damage estimates for Russia per damage category (e.g. acidification of forest and agricultural soils, health effects) and monetary evaluation (damage function) are required.

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Discussion

Next steps• Core model code

• Environmental module as a “stand-alone tool”, no feedback effects

• Data availabilty (TER form and regional energy balances from Rosstat) and data proceeding for CO2;

• Data availability for SO2, NOx and PM (including Russa’s specific abatement cost curves)

• ……..

environmental module and methodology for the assessment of data quality sust-rus 22. april 2010

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