Environmental pillar of migration: Introduction to the topicCAR

Tamer Afifi

United Nations University Insitute for Environment and Human Security

Bonn

Towards better evidence on migration and

development in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Capacity-building workshop on migration statistics Almaty, 31. Oct. 2013

Environmental migrants No agreement

1985 UN-Environment Program

(El-Hinnawi):

"……those people who have been forced to leave their traditional habitat,

temporarily or permanently, because of a marked environmental disruption . . . that

jeopardised their existence and/or seriously affected the quality of their

life……."

Environmental migrants No agreement

IOM working definition (2007):

“Environmental migrants are persons or groups of persons who, for compelling

reasons of sudden or progressive change in the environment that adversely affects their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or

choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within

their country or abroad”

Environmental migrants No agreement

Environmentally Motivated Migrants who “may leave” a steadily deteriorating environment to pre-

empt the worst.

Environmentally Forced Migrants who “have to leave” to avoid inevitable and grave consequences

of environmental degradation

Environmental Emergency Migrants who “flee” the worst of an environmental impact to save their

lives.

www.each-for.eu

Tajikistan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Egypt

Turkey

Mozambique

Vietnam

Morocco

Ghana

Senegal

Niger

Dominican Republic, Haiti

Mexico

Ecuador

Argentina

Russia

China

Tuvalu

Bangladesh

Spain

The Balkans

WesternSahara

Tajikistan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Egypt

Turkey

Mozambique

Vietnam

Morocco

Ghana

Senegal

Niger

Dominican Republic, Haiti

Mexico

Ecuador

Argentina

Russia

China

Tuvalu

Bangladesh

Spain

The Balkans

WesternSahara

social

cultural

(Forced) human

displacement

Main outcomes: 1. Food security is a key factor

2. Climatic/environmental problems are often root causes

3. Most of the migration is internal 5. What is national is becoming international migration

6. What is seasonal/temporary is becoming long-term/permanent migration

Gravity model: - The impact of environmental degradation on migration between countries pair wise. - 13 global environmental factors. - Other 13 geographic, economic, political, social, historical and cultural indicators. - 172 countries.

Horn of Africa Study

Horn of Africa Study

Key findings 1. Discernible shifts in weather in the home countries over the past 10–15 years. 2. Severe impacts on farming and livestock husbandry in the homelands of the refugees 3. Weather conditions as a multiplier/magnifier of pre-existing conflicts in countries of origin. 4. Wide range of traditional and innovative adaptation strategies in situ. 5. Human movements were only the last resort. 6. Movements due to pure climatic issues were rather internal and temporary.

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Partners and Donors

With the support of:

and

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Geographic Diversity: 8 Countries

8 case studies

Source: CARE France

Duration: 2011-2013

Fieldwork Summer 2011

- Winter 2012

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Case Study Reports

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OBJECTIVES

1. To understand how rainfall variability, food security and human mobility interact today

2. To understand how these factors might interact in coming decades as the impact of climate change begins to be felt more strongly

Project objectives & scope

3. To work with communities to identify ways to manage rainfall variability, food/livelihood insecurity, and migration.

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Field Research Methodology*

Expert interviews

Participatory Research Approach

Household surveys

Resource map, Tanzania. Source: Afifi, 2012

_______________________________ *See Rademacher-Schulz et al. (2012)

Ranking of coping strategies, Thailand. Source: Sakdapolrak, 2008

Seasonal calendar, Peru. Source: Milan, 2011

Rademacher-Schulz, Christina, Tamer Afifi, Koko Warner, Thérèse Rosenfeld, Andrea Milan, Benjamin Etzold and Patrick Sakdapolrak (2012): “Rainfall variability, food security and human mobility. An approach for generating empirical evidence.” Intersections No. 10. Bonn: UNU-EHS.

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Global Findings based on 8 case studies

Source: Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow, 2012

Resilience to climatic stressors Vulnerability to climatic stressors

Migration improves HH

resilience

Migration used to survive, but not

flourish

Migration erosive coping strategy

Migration not an option: trapped

populations

• Economy: poor • Adaptation options:

access to livelihoods options &assets (social, economic, political),

• Education: Children have 3-5 years more education than parents

• Migrant: early 20s, single; temporal migration

• Remittances: education, livelihood diversification, health

• Economy: chronically food insecure, landless, female -headed HH

• Adaptation options: insufficient assets to adapt locally or through migration

• Education: More HHs have low or no education / skill levels

• Migrant: not feasible • Remittances: none.

Abandoned / trapped populations

• Economy: landless • Adaptation options: few

adaptation options in situ, inability to diversify

• Education: All HH members have low or no education / skill levels

• Migrant: HH Head, mid 40s, migration in hunger season

• Remittances: Partial success in obtaining food or money to buy food

• Economy: land scarce • Adaptation options: less

access to assets & institutions for support

• Education: Children have same education level as parents

• Migrant: HH Head, mid 40s, migration in hunger season

• Remittances: Success in obtaining food or money to buy food

4 household profiles

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Potential future relationships among rainfall variability,

food security and migration (Tanzania)

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Scenario 1(drying)

Scenario 2(wetting)

Scenario 3(extremewetting)

Scenario 4(extremedrying)N

orm

alis

ed d

iffe

ren

ce r

ate

of

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mig

rati

on

Source: Dr. Christopher Smith, 2012 UNU-EHS

cdsmith@ehs.unu.edu

11/4/2013 21

Conclusions

• General perception of climatic changes in the form of rainfall variability

• Negative impacts on agricultural production (food and livelihood insecurity)

• Migration characteristics

• Migration in response to climatic problems/risks (nature of relationship)

• Household characteristics matter

• Future pressure on rainfall-dependent livelihoods and its impact on human mobility

Warner, Koko, Tamer Afifi, Kevin Henry, Tonya Rawe, Christopher Smith, and Alex De Sherbinin (2012): “Where the Rain Falls: Climate change, food and livelihood security, and migration.” Global Policy Report. Bonn: UNU-EHS.

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Thank you for your attention Contact:

Dr Tamer Afifi Associate Academic Officer UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) Bonn Tel + 49-228-815-0232 afifi@ehs.unu.edu www.ehs.unu.edu http://wheretherainfalls.org