Environmental Protection and

Public Opinion

Table of Contents Introduction (Koji) 3

Case Study 1 (Nina)

Public Opinion on Major Nuclear

Power Accidents

14

Case Study 2 (Anna)

Public Opinion and Global

Warming (Climate Change) –

Kyoto Protocol

39

Case Study 3 (Gene)

Anti-American Sentiment in South

Korea Towards USFK Pollution

after 2000

64

Conclusion (James) 77

Koji Yamaguchi

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Introduction to Environmental

Protection and Public Opinion

News Coverage on Climate Change and

Environmental Consequences Rises in the Post-

Disaster

September 2009: Sumatra

Earthquake

March 2011: North-East

Japan Earthquake

September 2004: Indian

Ocean Earthquake

May 2006: An Inconvenient

Truth

Poll: The most important issues in the

world (2005-2014)

Start of the 2007-2008

Financial Crisis

Environmental Issues: RoI, Causes,

Effects, Policies and Obstacles

Issue Region of

Interest Causes Effects

Policies/Soluti

ons Obstacles

Pollution Global • Mankind

• Natural

• Climate Change

(0.85C rise since

1880)

• Kyoto Protocol

• Investments into

renewable energy

Decreasing emissions and

funding renewable energy

projects is very costly and

uncertain

Nuclear

Accidents

Global

(Chernobyl/Europe,

Japan)

• Natural Disaster

• Human Errors

(Design and

Operational)

• Spread of

radioactive matter

• Households

displaced

• Decrease

Usage/Shutdown of

nuclear power plants

Nuclear energy is relatively less

harmful to the environment

than other traditional plants,

and is less expensive than clean

energy power plants

Deforest-

-ation Global

• Resource

Obtainment

• Farming

• Wildfires

• Ecosystems lost

(animals displaced)

• Acceleration of

climate change

• Consumer level

purchases of

environmentally friendly

products

Environmentally friendly

products come at a premium

and most households cannot

afford to make the switch

The Environmental Protection Dilemma

Solutions to issues almost always involves money and a negative (at least short-term) impact on the economy

A 10% increase in electricity prices would reduce U.S. economic growth by 5.7% and would push close to a million Americans into poverty

Environmental issues are often interrelated

Increasing hydroelectricity usage in order to decrease carbon emissions leads to increased deforestation (which contributes to climate change) and further loss in eco-systems

Though they run the risk of melting down, nuclear power plants are relatively less polluting (unless they do melt down) and cheaper

Why Renewable Energy is Expensive

Most places suitable for producing large amounts of renewable energy are far away from the city centers where the majority of electricity is consumed

Optimal locations to build wind turbines range from Scottish hillsides, French lakes, to American deserts

The power stations do not run constantly, as wind turbines only run about 1/3 of the time and solar energy is also dependent on the amount of sunlight that is available

In order to meet demand when needed, countries would have to pay for traditional power station upkeep and a higher electricity cost (since those factories are not running at full capacity)

Generally, people admit that global warming has

been occurring and consider themselves to be

knowledgeable in the area

Percentage of Americans who believe global

warming has been happening

Percentage of Americans who consider

themselves 'highly knowledgeable' about

global warming

Survey Question: 2012-2013: What is your personal opinion? Do you think

that the world's temperature probably has been going up over the past 100

years, or do you think this probably has not been happening? 2012: What is your

personal opinion? Do you think that the world's temperature probably has been

going up over the past 100 years, or do you think this probably has not been

happening? 1997-2011: You may have heard about the idea that the world's

temperature may have been going up slowly over the past 100 years. What is

your personal opinion on this? Do you think this has probably been happening,

or do you think it probably has not been happening?

Survey Question: How much do you feel you know about global warming - a

lot, a moderate amount, a little, or nothing?

They have a general perception that global

warming poses a threat to the world’s future as

well as their own well-being

Percentage of Americans who believe the world's temperature will continue to rise if nothing is done to prevent it

Percentage of Americans who believe global

warming will pose a serious problem for the

United States

Survey Question: 2012: If nothing is done to prevent it, do you think the

world’s temperature probably will go up slowly over the next 100 years, or do

you think the world’s temperature probably will not go up slowly over the next

100 years? 2012: If nothing is done to prevent it, do you think the world’s

temperature probably will go up over the next 100 years, or do you think the

world’s temperature probably will not go up over the next 100 years? 2010-2011:

If nothing is done to prevent it, do you think the world’s temperature probably

will go up slowly over the next 100 years, or do you think the world’s

temperature probably will not go up slowly over the next 100 years?

Survey Question: 2012: If nothing is done to reduce global warming in the future,

how serious of a problem do you think it will be for the United States – very serious,

somewhat serious, not so serious, or not serious at all? 2012: Assuming it’s

happening, if nothing is done to reduce global warming in the future, how serious of a

problem do you think it would be for the United States – very serious, somewhat

serious, not so serious, or not serious at all? 1997-2011: If nothing is done to reduce

global warming in the future, how serious of a problem do you think it will be for the

United States – very serious, somewhat serious, not so serious, or not serious at all?

1o997-2011: Assuming it’s happening, if nothing is done to reduce global warming in

the future, how serious of a problem do you think it would be for the United States –

very serious, somewhat serious, not so serious, or not serious at all?

Most show support for the reduction of carbon

dioxide emissions by others and the general public

Percentage of Americans who support tax

breaks to produce renewable energy as a

way to reduce future global warming

Percentage of Americans who believe the

U.S. government should do more to address

global warming

Survey Question: 2012: For each of the following, please tell me whether you

favor or oppose it as a way for the federal government to try to reduce future

global warming. Each of these changes would increase the amount of money that

you pay for things you buy. Do you favor or oppose the federal government giving

companies tax breaks to produce more electricity from water, wind, and solar

power? 1997-2011: For the next items, please tell me for each one whether it's

something the government should require by law, encourage with tax breaks but

not require, or stay out of entirely. Do you favor or oppose the federal

government giving companies tax breaks to produce more electricity from water,

wind, and solar power?

Survey Question: 2009-2012: How much do you think the U.S. government

should do about global warming? A great deal, quite a bit, some, a little, or

nothing? 2009-2012: How much do you think the U.S. government is doing now

to deal with global warming? A great deal, quite a bit, some, a little, or nothing?

2008: Do you think the federal government should do more than it’s doing now

to try to deal with global warming, should do less than it’s doing now, or is it

doing about the right amount?

Survey Question: How important is the issue of global warming to you personally – extremely important, very important,

somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important?

However, 80%+ of Americans do not think global

warming is an issue that they must deal with

personally

Percentage of Americans for whom the issue of global warming is extremely important personally

Mini-Case: Love Canal Location: Love Canal, Western New York (USA)

Background: An abandoned waterway, which was previously owned by a chemical company, transformed into a neighborhood of over 200 households

Disaster: Due to several years of heavy rain, in 1976 the canal overflowed and 21,000+ tons of chemical waste that had been buried resurfaced causing health issues to the inhabitants and growing fears of the possibilities of similar disasters occurring around the country.

Effect and Aftermath: Movements lead by Lois Marie Gibbs, president of the Love Canal Homeowners Association and residents led to the passage of CERCLA (Superfund), which grew to $1.6 billion in 5 years and $13.6 billion by 1994

Analysis: A spiral of extensive nationwide media coverage on unjustified facts (studies which were later found to be scientifically flawed were leaked and the crisis was given front-page coverage on the New York Times) and a rise in public awareness led to 85% of Americans to favor the clean up of hazardous waste sites and the multi-billion dollar act (CERCLA, SARA, Superfund)

This case was an example of an availability cascade (Kuran and Sunstein), which is “a self-reinforcing process of collective belief formation by which an expressed perception triggers a chain reaction that gives the perception increasing plausibility through its rising availability in public discourse”

References

Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux

Kuran, T. & Sunstein, C. R. (1999). Availability cascades and risk regulation. Stanford Law Review 51(4). 683-768

Nina Balykova

Case Study 1: Public Opinion on Major Nuclear Power

Accidents

=Background=

♦ World's first

artificial nuclear

reactor:

Chicago Pile-1

(CP-1), 1942, US.

- Was part of the

Manhattan Project

for producing

nuclear weapons.

- Consisted of “a

crude pile of black

bricks and wooden

timbers”.

♦ World's first electricity-generating nuclear power plant:

Experimental Breeder Reactor I (EBR-I), Idaho, US.

- On December 20, 1951 it produced sufficient electricity to

illuminate four 200-watt light bulbs.

♦ World's first nuclear power plant built for civil purposes:

AM-1 Obninsk Nuclear Power Plant, launched on 27 June

1954 in the Soviet Union.

…Globally, there have been 100< nuclear plant accidents.

♦World's first major nuclear reactor accident: NRX

(National Research Experimental), Ontario, Canada.

- December 12, 1952: partial meltdown due to operator error

and mechanical problems

- Clean-up required several months

- Reactor core removed and buried, improved reactor back in

operation within two years

- Was a research reactor, little to no public attention

♦World's most known accidents:

- 1979, Three Mile Island, US

- 1986, Chernobyl, USSR/Ukraine

- 2011, Fukushima-1, Japan

Three Mile Island, 28/03/1979

Partial reactor core meltdown, no fatalities

Cancer risk: out of 2 mln. people living in 50-mile radius, 325 000 were

expected to develop cancer from natural

causes in next 30 years. Radiation from TMI

could add 1 person to that number.

Extensive press coverage, including titles:

“It's all over the US”,

“There's no hiding place”...

=>Anti-nuclear demonstrations

(protest in Harrisburg, 1979 >>)

=> Enhanced credibility of anti-nuclear groups

=> Decline in reactor building in the US

Chernobyl, 26/4/1986

Figures from

Eurobarometer.

The number of

countries listed at the

bottom of the chart

refer to the European

countries which were

included in each

Eurobarometer

survey (which has

increased as the

number of EU

member states has

grown).

Attitudes across Europe on the risk

posed by nuclear energy (1978-2008)

Fukushima Daiichi,

11/3/2011

Japanese Post-Fukushima Polls

American public opinion

polls

American

Polls

Global Polls

On the 15th of April 2011 1,193

members of the CLUB BBQ free

email forwarding service

completed a private internet-based

questionnaire.

People from the disaster-affected

areas were not surveyed.

Several months after the nuclear

disaster in Japan, market research

company Ipsos asked citizens in 24

countries how they feel about

atomic energy.

World nuclear power plant construction

through 1954-2013

Worldwide Nuclear Electricity Generation and Nuclear reactor

construction starts, 1951 – 2011. Source: World Energy Outlook

2011, International Energy Agency

But…

Amount of

total

domestic

electricity

generation

deriving

from nuclear

power (2013)

But… 2013 British

Polls

But…

French Polls

Use of nuclear power in France 2013

In favor

Against

Undecided

Use of nuclear power in France 2011

In favor

Against

Undecided

=Summary=

#Visibility of big nuclear accidents gives them an increased ability to influence public opinion on nuclear energy, health & environment on the global scale

#Major accidents cause periods of elevated anti-nuclear sentiments. However, the durability of these sentiments isn’t uniform.

#There's a global tendency to decrease the number of reactors, which shows the effectiveness of public opinion in relation to nuclear industry, but there is big difference by state.

…Why does this difference exist?

Possible reason 1:

People from countries that rely more on nuclear energy are more

used to it, consider themselves more knowledgeable, and

understand their country’s needs or lack of resources.

Possible reason 2: Nuclear energy does not feature amongst most

people’s highest concerns. The highest energy related concerns are

those of price and security of energy supply.

Possible reason 3: (Anti-)Nuclear movement is closely tied with

other social movements such as civil rights, anti-war etc. =>

Societies with developed civil rights movements might be more

anti-nuclear. Even gender equality may play a role.

(Attitude to nuclear industry: UK gendered data, 2009)

Thank you for attention!

Anna MOHRI

5614A029

Case 2:

Public Opinion and Global Warming

(Climate Change) –Kyoto Protocol

Ⅰ. Back Ground

What Is Global Warming?

あ

Examples of Climate Change

What is Kyoto Protocol? Formal name: “Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations

Framework Convention on Climate Change”

Date: Dec. 11th, 1997(Signed) Feb. 16th, 2005(Effective)

Purpose: State Parties to reduce 5% of greenhouse gases emissions from 1990 to prevent global warming and climate changes

The first treaty which global world achieved an agreement

COP3 was hold in Kyoto

Countries; EU (15 countries), Japan, Hungary, Poland, Croatia, New Zealand, Russia, Ukraine, Norway, Australia, Iceland, United States, Canada

Post-Kyoto Protocol

A new goal for “Framework

Convention on Climate

Change”

However, it has not succeed to

make one because battles

between developed and

developing countries

Post-Kyoto Protocol

28%

16%

6% 6% 4%

2%

2% 2%

1%

1% 1% 1%

1%

1%

28%

CO2 emmisions(2012)

China U. S. India Russia

Japan Germany S. Korea U. K.

Mexico Canada Brazzil Indonesia

Australia Italy Others

Total amount: 32,6 billion t

CO2 emissions/ person

(2012)

Ⅱ. Analysis 1

How Public Opinion Effect on Government and the Policy ?

Public

Opinion

Government &

the Policy

Solving

Environment

Problems

United States

a

United States As economy getting worse, economic growth has become much more

important than protection of the environment for American people

United States The number of Americans who requires policies to reduce greenhouse gas

emissions is also slightly decreasing

Australia

In Australia, which had not

ratified the Kyoto Protocol

likewise America, change of

government took place

through a nationwide election

and immediately after that the

new government ratified the

protocol on December 3,

2007

Public opinion persuade to

join Kyoto Protocol

the Coalition

47% the Labor

Party 53%

the percentage of the vote obtained

Australia

Europe European favorable public opinion on climate change persuade the EU

government to commit to Kyoto Protocol seriously

Europe European favorable public opinion on climate change persuade the EU

government to commit to Kyoto Protocol seriously

Japan

Before 3.11, Japanese people

tried to achieve Kyoto

Protocol because it has singed

in Japan.

However, more people think

that no nuclear power plants is

much more important than

reducing greenhouse gases

Japan

Ⅲ. Analysis 2

How Government Try to Make Public Opinion ?

Government &

the Policy

Public

Opinion

Solving

Environment

Problems

Making public opinion is also important to deal with environmental problems

Japan

Making public opinion is also important to deal with

environmental problems

Tried to show climate change or global warming on media

a lot

Tax reduction policies for eco-friendly products

“Cool Biz”

“Eco-Point”

Japan

Newspaper cove rage (Jan 2005 -Dec 2011) on climate change or global warming

Ⅳ. Summary

Summary Public opinion plays very important role for environmental

problem

Policies related with environmental problems is effected by public opinion in both of positive way and negative way

Some people (or some country) really care about climate change, others think that their benefits are much more important because protecting climate cost them a lot.

At the same time, to solve environmental problem, supports of public opinion is necessary for governments

To get support for producing policies to reduce greenhouse gas emission

To get public efforts to solve global warming problems

GENE JINSUK LEE

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Case 3:

Anti-American Sentiment in South Korea Towards

USFK Pollution after 2000

ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AND PUBLIC OPINION

I. Background 1) The origin of Anti-American sentiment in South Korea

After the liberalization in 1945, Korean peninsular was ruled by U.S.(South) and USSR(North) military forces

Through the democratization in South Korea, there has been a demand to withdraw U.S military forces from the peninsular in order to achieve ‘true’ independence

Tension between South and North Korea held the U.S military forces back

Korea was divided by ideologies; liberalism and communism

Communists left in South & those who demanded the establishment of autonomy took political position against U.S military

Extreme comparison: Right (Conservative party, Liberalism, American-friendly) vs. Left (Progressive party, Socialism, Anti-American)

I. Background

Therefore…

Public enemy: the nature of the foundation of Republic of Korea, widely influenced (or liberated) by U.S, brought tendency on Anti-American groups to target U.S as primary source to almost every unfavorable factor related to the social structure (liberal economy and democratic system, which sometimes cannot be perfect solution at all)

Social causality: U.S is sometimes scapegoated in the public opinion of South Korea

I. Background 2) The background of United States Forces Korea

The most notable trace of post-Korean War and division of territory

Since the establishment of Republic of Korea in 1948, U.S military remained and United States Forces Korea (USFK) was established in 1957

As of 2014, 29,300 USFK soldiers are stationed in South Korea

Up to 2009, USFK bases were located in 70 sites, including Yongsan – the central part of Seoul, the capital city. The number is to be reduced to 47 by 2017

Anti-sentiment against USFK arose; especially after two U.S. soldiers in the armed vehicle accidentally hit and killed two South Korean teenage girls in 2002

Environmental pollution caused by USFK was relatively highlighted (in comparison of other pollution caused by the others)

II. Hypothesis

Korean are more keen (and more likely to resist) to the

pollution occurred by USFK

Such more-than-usual resistance is mainly caused by anti-

sentiment

Public opinion towards environmental issues is linked to

public sentiment

III. Pollution Incidents

1) Yongsan: dispose of formaldehyde leakage to Han-river in 2000

An incident in 2000 in which a civilian

mortician, Albert L. McFarland, working for

the U.S. military in Seoul dumped a large

amount of formaldehyde down the drain. In

addition to its environmental concerns, this

has added some antagonism against the

United States

III. Pollution Incidents

2) Waegwan: expose of defoliant buried in 2011

Former USFK soldiers revealed to

American broadcasting network KPHO-TV

that, in 1978, they were ordered to bury

250 barrels of toxic substance labeled as

‘Agent Orange’ – sooner to be identified as

defoliant, which was used as chemical

weapon in Viet Nam war

III. Pollution Incidents

3) Osan Air Base: Bacillus anthracis(known as Anthrax) delivery in 2015

U.S Defense Department laboratory

accidentally sent live samples of anthrax through

a commercial delivery service to a lab at Osan

Air Base, South Korea. 22 people were exposed

during a training event. Anthrax is known as

most dangerous chemical weapon of mass

destruction

IV. Analysis

1) Korean Movie “The Host (2006)”

13 million audience views (No.1 in Korean movie history) in South Korea, the story was inspired by 2000’s Han-river formaldehyde leakage incident

The American military situated in South Korea is portrayed as uncaring about the effects their activities have on the locals. The director, Bong Joon-ho, commented on the issue: "It's a stretch to simplify The Host as an anti-American film, but there is certainly a metaphor and political commentary about the U.S."

IV. Analysis

2) Media exposure on USFK pollution

3,351 articles on USFK pollution: among them, 1,723 news articles on Waegwan defoliant pollution, 986 news articles on formaldehyde leakage vs. 707 news articles on Samsung Cooperation’s oil leakage, the biggest environmental disaster in South Korea

The number of news article on USFK pollution was highly increased in 2006-2007, after mega-hit of the movie ‘The Host’ – 434 related articles in 1 year

(Source: Korea News Foundation Database)

IV. Analysis

3) Public opinion poll on USFK

Survey 1: “Withdraw USFK from South Korea”

39% in 2003 → 62% in 2007 → 51% in 2008

(Source: Joongang Daily Newspaper)

Survey 2: “Osan AB Anthrax incident”

78.3% “U.S. is responsible for the infringement of sovereignty”

87.3% “Korea-U.S. SOFA agreement needs to be revised”

79.1% “Korean government is taking a submissive attitude on the accident”

= An incident is being amplified to other issues such as SOFA & OPCON

(Source: Social Trend Institute Korea)

IV. Analysis

4) Future study: comparative research on Okinawa case

In Japan: USFJ 1980s Kadena Air Base

V. Summary

Anti-American sentiment may not be the only factor since

the awareness on environmental protection is increasing

Plus, the gap between political stances of liberalism and

socialism are being narrowed

However, it is unavoidable that such sentiment spotlighted

the pollution caused by USFK – again, “scapegoating”

James Lansdowne

5614A032-5

Conclusion:

Recent Trends in Public Opinion on

Environmental Policy

Overview

Connections between public opinion and environmental

policy

The current state of global environmental policy

Current trends in public opinion around the world

Paris 2015 Conference

Conclusions

Public Opinion and

Environmental Policy

Very fluid connection, particularly in democracies.

In general, voters care about the

environment, but they don’t

necessarily make votes based on it,

which weakens its

policy-making power.

Public Opinion on the Environment Due to the high cost of environmental protection, the issue

ends up being in pretty much direct conflict with the economy, meaning that when the economy is doing good, people care about the environment and when the economy is down, they don’t.

This however can work in the opposite direction in environmentally vulnerable areas where they feel that maintaining their environment is the key to improving their economy. As such, developing countries are often more concerned about these things than developed ones.

US Public Opinion

Recent Trends

With the recent economic crisis, in general we see a rather

large decline in concern. That said, even these lower levels of

concern are higher than they were ten years ago.

Recent Trends (cont.)

The interesting thing in the

above poll is that the ‘generally

correct’ and ‘generally

underestimated’ lines have

essentially flipped, meaning

that what is actually happening is

less that people aren’t concerned

anymore and more that the

public discourse has changed.

Global Issues

Generally speaking, people in less developed countries are

often as aware, if not more aware, of the impact of global

warming as those in more developed countries.

Policy Creation

The 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference took

place in Copenhagen in December of that year.

Despite a number of minor agreements, the conference is

generally considered to be a rather spectacular failure.

Source: International Traveler; web; July, 2015

Policy Creation (Paris 2015)

The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference is to

be held in Paris beginning in November

A number of conferences have been held around the world

since Copenhagen, but most have held little weight. This

time however, there is some amount of optimism going in.

Source: The Telegraph; web; July, 2015

Paris 2015

There are a number of reasons that analysts are more

optimistic about this conference:

China and the US have changed their positions

Timetables and other pre-agreements have already been made

There is a change in approach from top-down to bottom-up

The situation is better understood.

Businesses are actually getting behind this

Source: The Climate Group; web; July, 2015

Paris 2015

An interesting counterpoint to this is however what I have

already discussed. The public is actually not that concerned

about the environment right now. The issue is of much

greater concern to business elites and politicians.

Another ongoing problem is the huge divide between

developed and developing nations on this issue, though the

change in position of China, which see itself as the de facto

‘leader’ of the developing world, could make a huge

difference here.

Conclusion As has been discussed, public opinion is vitally important to

the formulation of policy on the environment, as it leads to raised awareness and forces politicians to take notice.

On the other hand, the public tends to only respond in a crisis and often forgets as soon as the crisis has ended, which can be a serious barrier to the long-term process of policy creation.

As such, it tends to be elite or business pressure that makes the most long-term difference.

References Bowman, Karlyn, and Jennifer Marsico. "Opinions about the

Environment."Forbes. Forbes Magazine, 20 Apr. 2015. Web. 05 July 2015.

Cohen, Steve. "Understanding Public Opinion About the Environment."Observer. N.p., 25 Jan. 2009. Web. 05 July 2015.

Harms, William. "Global Surveys Show Environment Ranks Low on Public Concerns." UChicagoNews. N.p., 25 Feb. 2013. Web. 05 July 2015.

Kohut, Andrew, Carroll Dohery, Michael Dimock, and Scott Keeter. "Economy, Jobs Trump All Other Policy Priorities In 2009." Pew Research Center for the People and the Press RSS. Pew Research Center, 22 Jan. 2009. Web. 05 July 2015.

Willis, Rebecca. Paris 2015: Getting a Global Agreement on Climate Change. Publication. Green Alliance, Aug. 2014. Web. 05 July 2015.

"Environment." Gallup.com. Gallup, 2015. Web. 05 July 2015.

Thank you!!