envs 189—intro. to systems thinking
DESCRIPTION
Policy Insensitivity Cartoon “Solutions” to a problem may not solve the problem and actually make the problem worseTRANSCRIPT
ENVS 189Intro. To Systems Thinking Policy Insensitivity
Cartoon
Solutions to a problem may not solve the problem and actually make
the problem worse There are a few sensitive points where you can
exert effective leverage, but they may not be where you expect them
Delayed feedback cartoon
There is atime delay between cause and effect. This prevents us
from knowinghow the immediate outcomes of our actions will effect
us later. Slow Systems Response Cartoon
A system can change in slow and imperceptible ways Lighted arrows
cartoon
The future is not more of the past. So, past experiences dont
always apply to solving future problems. The future is not more of
the past Elephant Sufi Cartoon The more that the parts of a problem
come intofocus, the more difficult it may be to identify what the
whole problem is. Definition of a System SYSTEM -- a collection of
individual parts (people, policies, etc.) that work together as a
whole. Definition of ST SYSTEMS THINKING How we view and work with
complex systems by looking for and understanding patterns of
inter-relationships between the parts of the system. No numbers and
computers
Systems thinking has nothing to do with numbers or computers THE
BEST SYSTEMS THINKERS ARE:
Intuitive (right brain dominant) people People exposed to Zen and
other Eastern philosophies Mystery category (something you once all
were) Fixes that Backfire Fixes that Backfire
Why is it that, in complex systems, the more we try to solve the
problem, the worse the existing problem can become or even new
problems are created? My examples: Bacterial Outbreak at Mass.
General Hospital Wells in Africa Your examples-?? The Policy
Insensitivity Continuum
WORSTBEST Existing problemsImprovement become worse and/orIis less
than new problems areanticipated created There are many reasons for
this.
Leverage Points--1 Systemsdont behave the way we intend them to
because they are insensitive to traditional ways we try to alter
their behavior. There are many reasons for this. The first two
involve leverage points: places in the system where a small change
in one thing can produce big changes in everything. We look for
them in the symptom of the problem.
Leverage points--2 There are a few leverage points that will solve
the problem.But they are hard to find because they are not where
you would expect them to be. We look for them in the symptom of the
problem. But, instead they are found in the underlying causes of
the problem. Symptoms vs. Causes-1 Systems Thinking Helps You
Uncover The Leverage Points in a Complex System. It helps you
discover the deep, underlying causes of a problem, not just the
outward superficial systems. Symptoms vs. Causes-2 So why are we
drawn to the symptoms, where there are no leverage points, rather
than to its underlying behaviors, where there are leverage points?
Symptoms: Shout-- display prominent results are short-term and
compelling provide immediate gratification (political implications)
demand local attention Underlying causes: Whisper--display subtle
results are long- term and persistent provide delayed gratification
cut across departmental or agency boundaries Unintended
Consequences
When we treat the symptoms rather than the causes, we get:
UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES Examples: Traffic on Shelburne Road Ski
Bindings This is the short-term, quick fix solution
UCShelburne Rd--1 Shelburne Road in South Burlington becomes overly
congested, so a decision is made to widen it. After the
construction, the congestion is initially relieved. This is the
short-term, quick fix solution that treats the problem symptom This
is the long-term unintended consequence
UCShelburne Rd--2 Eventually, this low traffic flow makes the road
attractive to new drivers who werent using the road before
construction, so the congestion becomes worse than ever. This is
the long-term unintended consequence Ineffective policies-1
Why Policies Dont Give the Results You Want The system gets in the
way: the harder you push, the harder the system pushes back We are
drawn to the very symptom points where intervening will fail. There
are a few sensitive influence points that where you can exert
leverage to solve the problem, but they are not where you are
expecting them to be. Cause and effect are not closely related in
time and space. Ineffective policies-2
Why Policies Dont Give You the Results You Want (continued) 5. The
more that a problem comes into focus, the fuzzier it appears. 6.
Past experiences may not apply. 7. Outcomes may first improve
before they get worse, or first get worse before they improve. 8.
The system can change in slow and imperceptible ways. Complex
systems are inherently uncontrollable
Conclusions Conclusions: Complex systems are inherently
uncontrollable They cannot be understood sufficiently even while
they are unfolding So prediction and control of complex systems is
very hard, if not impossible, to do Benefits of Learning Systems
Thinking:
Benefits of ST--1 Benefits of Learning Systems Thinking: Systems
Thinking will help youbetterunderstand how complex systems behave.
This will help you immensely in your own personal life, in your
other courses, and how you see the world. You already know
everything you need to know factuallyits just rearranging the
information. 17 Practices of Systems Thinking
Considering both short and long term consequences of ones actions
Looking ahead and anticipating not only the immediate results of
actions, but also theeffects down the road Looking at multiple
perspectives of an issue Changing perspective to see other points
of view within a system Looking at the big picture Focusing on the
overall forest as opposed to the details of any one tree Looking
for patterns in data Reviewing information with an eye towards
patterns or themes Looking for trends over time Viewing changes
over time as part of the natural dynamics of the system Being
comfortable with ambiguity Holding the tension of paradox and
ambiguity; taking the time necessary to understand thedynamics of a
system before taking action 17 Practices of Systems Thinking
Checking results and changing actions if needed. Assessing for
improvement using benchmarks; seeing errors as a means to learning
and adjustment Looking for interconnected issues Perceiving
connections between multiple issues/parts within a system Looking
for small actions that can make big differences Using systems
understanding to determine what small actions could produce high
leverage results Considering the impacts of accumulations over time
Paying attention to things that build up (or deplete) slowly over
timeboth concrete (money in a bank account) or abstract (trust
within a relationship) Being comfortable with questioning ones deep
assumptions Understanding that ones beliefs of how the world works
(mental models) may limit ones thinking. Being aware of boundaries
Understanding that boundaries are arbitrary; checking for
consistency of understanding about where a particular boundary is
drawn. 17 Practices of Systems Thinking
Thinking critically about causation, not just correlation Looking
beyond basic connectedness to understand the dynamic relationship
between the connected parts Being cautious of adopting a win/lose
attitude Being skeptical of a zero-sum game approach to individual
goals within a highly interdependent system Considering unintended
consequences Anticipating ancillary effects of actions over time
Seeingself as part of system under study Understanding that ones
own behavior within the system, impacts the system Recognizing that
a systems structure drives its behavior Focusing on system
structure and avoiding blaming others when things go wrong If you
dont know where youre going,
Benefits of ST--3 If you dont know where youre going, when you get
there, it may not be where you wanna be. Casey Stengel Former
Manager NY Yankees