epee f-gas industry roundtable 15 · development of hfc prices epee f-gas roundtable 15 april 2019...
TRANSCRIPT
EPEE F-GAS INDUSTRY
ROUNDTABLE
15
April
2019
Agenda13.00 – 14.00 Registration of participants - Lunch14.00 – 14.10 Introduction - Andrea Voigt, EPEE
14.10 – 14.25
14.25 – 14.35
Evolution of HFC prices - Öko-Recherche
Q&A
14.35 – 15.05
15.05– 15.15
EPEE EU HFC Model update - Ray Gluckman, Gluckman Consulting
Q&A
15.15 – 15.30 Coffee break
15.30 – 15.45
15.45 – 15.55
Update on implementation of the F-gas Regulation - Arno Kaschl, Bente Tranholm-Schwarz,
European Commission (DG CLIMA)
Q&A
15.55 – 16.05
16.05 – 16.15
Update on Brexit – Russell Patten, Grayling Brussels
Q&A
16.15 – 16.45
16.45 – 17.00
Dedicated industry activities – Andrea Voigt, EPEE; Angelica Candido, EFCTC; Wolfgang
Zaremski, ASERCOM
Q&A
17.00 – 17.10
17.10 – 17.20
HFC phase-down implementation: from a global perspective – Didier Coulomb, International
Institute of Refrigeration
Q&A
17.20– 17.30 Closing remarks
Andrea Voigt, EPEE Director General
WelcomeAndrea Voigt, EPEE
Evolution of HFC pricesÖko-Recherche
Development of HFC prices
EPEE F-gas Roundtable
15 April 2019
EPEE offices, Brussels
Julia KleinschmidtÖko-Recherche GmbH
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
6
Agenda
15 April 2019
► Methodology
► Update on price developments in 2018
► Short outlook to 2019
Methodology
Companies
• from the RAC sector
• from all supply chain levels
• from eleven different EU Member
States (Austria, Czech Republic, Estonia, France, Germany,
Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Slovakia,
Spain, UK)
• provide data on purchase
and/or selling prices of HFC
refrigerants and lower GWP
alternatives
• provide additional information
on sectoral use, regional
availability, prices of quota
authorisations
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
2 to 3 gas producers (selling prices)
4 to 6 gas distributors (purchase and/or selling prices)
~ 25 OEMs (purchase prices)
~ 30 service companies (purchase and selling prices)
(End-users)
715 April 2019
► On average, 60 companies per quarter
Methodology
• Ex-post price analysis
• Data collected via
1) Standardised questionnaires
2) Personal interviews
• Additional information on underlying factors, transition to
alternative refrigerants in different sectors, expectations for market
and price trends in the next quarters, etc.
• More information and questionnaires for download (as excel files)
on the Öko-Recherche website
• https://www.oekorecherche.de/en/implementation-f-gas-
regulation-eu-no-5172014
815 April 2019
Methodology
Refrigerant GWP100 years (AR4) Refrigerant GWP100 years (AR4)
R134a 1430 R449A 1397
R404A 3922 R450A 604
R407A 2107 R452A 2105
R407C 1774 R513A 613
R407F 1825 R507A 3985
R407H 1495 R1234yf 4
R410A 2088 R1234ze 7
R422D 2729 R717 (ammonia) 0
R507A 3985 R744 (CO2) 1
R32 675 R290 (propane) 3
R448A 1387 R1270 (propylene) 2
915 April 2019
Refrigerants covered by the price analysis so far:
► Assessment of price developments for the entire refrigerant
supply chain and each supply chain level
Update on price developments in 2018
10
• 2018 was split into two parts:
− Flattening of price increases after strong price rises at
the beginning of the year
− Price decreases in Q3 and Q4
• According to the interviewed companies, different
aspects might have affected refrigerant prices
− Residual quota quantities (mainly Q4)
− Stockpiling in previous years
− Increased care in handling refrigerants
− Move to lower GWP alternatives
− Illegal trade
€
15 April 2019
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Pe
rce
nt
Gas producers (selling price)
Gas distributors (purchase price)
OEMs (purchase price)
Service companies (purchase price)
Service companies (selling price =end-user price)
Price development of R134a (GWP 1430)
11
Average prices at all levels of the supply chain
(price index, 2014 = 100 %)
Source: Öko-Recherche (2019)
15 April 2019
100
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
Pe
rce
nt
R404A (GWP 3922)
R410A (GWP 2088)
R407C (GWP 1774)
R134a (GWP 1430)
Price developments at service company level
12
Average purchase prices of various HFC refrigerants
(price index, 2014 = 100 %)
Source: Öko-Recherche (2019)
15 April 2019
* Data recorded in the
previous price monitoring
project
Development of abatement costs at OEM level
13
Source: Öko-Recherche (2019)
15 April 2019
Average purchase prices of various HFC refrigerants
(in €/t CO2e)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
€/t
CO
2e
R404A (GWP 3922)
R410A (GWP 2088)
R407C (GWP 1774)
R134a (GWP 1430)
• Prices of R134a/R410A
were stronger than for
R404A when
considering the GWP
Price developments at service company level
14
Source: Öko-Recherche (2019)
15 April 2019
Average purchase prices of various alternative refrigerants
(price index, Q2/2017 = 100 %)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Pe
rce
nt
R448A (GWP 1387)
R449A (GWP 1397)
R452A (GWP 2140)
R513A (GWP 631)
R1234yf (GWP 4)
R32 (GWP 675)
► Natural refrigerants: no price changes
• Broad price ranges at service company level
• Both purchase and selling prices of R404A, R410A,
R407C and R134a differed widely
► 75 % – 230 % and 190 % – 280% difference
between minimum and maximum prices,
respectively
• Regional price differences
• Gas availability:
• The indications have been significantly reduced
towards the end of the year
• Prices of quota authorisations varied from 15 to 28
€/t CO2e in Q4/2018
• Some gases sold at 50 % lower prices; these may be of illegal sources
1515 April 2019
Update on price developments in 2018
Short outlook to 2019
• According to first indications, the trend of late-2018 seems to
continue in Q1/2019
− (Very) low demand
− Further price reductions of refrigerants and quota
authorisations
1615 April 2019
Thank you very much for your attention!
Julia [email protected]
Öko-Recherche
Büro für Umweltforschung und -beratung GmbHMünchener Str. 23
60329 Frankfurt/Main
GERMANY
www.oekorecherche.de
@OekoRecherche
Any questions?
EPEE EU HFC Model update
Ray Gluckman, Gluckman Consulting
Any questions?
Coffee break
Update on implementation of the F-gas Regulation Arno Kaschl, Bente Tranholm-Schwarz,
European Commission (DG CLIMA)
Any questions?
Update on BrexitRussell Patten, Grayling
Brussels
Any questions?
Dedicated industry activities
Andrea Voigt, EPEE; Angelica Candido, EFCTC; Wolfgang Zaremski, ASERCOM
Illegal imports of HFCs into the European Union
April 2019
What are HFCs and what are they used for?
Impact of Illegal Imports
• Scope: HFC-products affecting broadly into sectors STATAC, Heating, Refrigeration and Automotive (Service)
• Import of potential serious health & safety hazardous products (flammability/pressure/toxicity) – and lower product performance
• A missed economic revenue for Member States:
• Loss in Duty & VAT revenue
• The environmental goals of the F Gas Regulation are being undermined and postponed
Potential Impacts of Illegal trade in HFCs
Confidential
Way forward to stop Illegal trade
Targeted Action at Customs level is needed
• Short term - URGENT:1. Stop the illegal imports
1. from surrounding countries; 2. into main EU harbours
2. Identify false import declarations1. into EU28; 2. in transit
• Mid-term: need a solid electronic notification system for customs to access the F Gas Quota Database
How can we work together to stop illegal HFC traffic in the EU and its Member States?
30Confidential
EFCTC Action plan against illegal imports: Communication strategy
• Press release: out on 28 March 2019• Associations, magazines,
journalists, users
• Website: • Banner and Info tab published
on the EFCTC website: https://www.fluorocarbons.org/
EFCTC hotline
Reporting of Potential Illegal impacts
• Action Line powered by EQS is active:• https://efctc.integrityline.org
• Webform can be completed in any language
• Reporting of suspicious illegal actions can be done in full confidence
• Use of the Action Line will be confidential and independently operated by the consultant
• EFCTC members will have no access to individual reports
• Further information: https://www.fluorocarbons.org/
Title of Presentation 32
We need your help
Basic immediate first steps
• Register on the HFC Registry – your main tool for controlling product flows
• Setup a Database for tracking product flows: imports/exports/local use/stockpiling
• Increase controls, and notify your authorities and DG CLIMA of any suspicious activity: [email protected]
• Check key Product codes at Customs (both EU and UN codes)• R134a, R404A, R410A, R32, R125
• Create a “Positive List” of responsible companies
33Confidential
Conclusion – we have work to do!
Together, we can have an impact on illegal trade
• Many actions can happen today
• Collaboration across all players: • At National level and in the region• EU Commission support• Industry support
• We are here to listen• We need your local experience to better help you
Title of Presentation 34
Contacts
EFCTC – European Fluorocarbons Technical Committee
Cefic – The European Chemical Industry Council
Rue Belliard 40, Box 15B-1040 Brussels, Belgium
http://www.fluorocarbons.org/
Any questions?
Framework – Phase down
The European F-Gas Regulation and other legal regulations are forcing a rethink within the HVAC & R
industry:
The refrigerants that currently dominate the market, such as R404A, R410 A and R134, the so-called
hydrofluorocarbon's (HFCs), have to be gradually phased down by 2030! Refrigerants with a higher GWP
value will be replaced be more environmentally friendly alternatives, such as flammable refrigerants.
This will be accomplished to:
Supporting the market to adapt new technologies through
training and awareness especially about the safe use of
flammable solutions
New and longer term product solutions, that deliver equal and
better cooling performance, but a lower GWP (global-warming
potential) for new equipment's
17/04/2019 38
Framework – High relevance!
Lack of individual advice: The market – decision makers, planners and operators – does
not have the necessary individual solutions to be able to make the right short-term (refilling)
and long-term decisions (new installation) within the prescribed time.
Hight relevance for the HVAC & R industry:
without solutions, the F-Gas Regulation cannot be implemented
adequately!
17/04/2019 39
Coolektiv – Shaping change together.
Industry experts developing solutions.
The expert committee
On the initiative of the Westfalen Group, experts from companies
and institutions of all relevant market participants have joined
forces.
Within two years, solutions for the refrigerant market will be
generated and made available to support the market.
Every market perspective – whether a specialist company,
manufacturer, operator, dealer or trade association – should be
included. The aim is to illuminate and answer relevant questions
on many different levels.
17/04/2019 40
Coolektiv market launch in October 2018
Panel discussion in front of 150
guests: as part of the Chillventa on the
evening of the first day of the trade fair
in Nuremberg
Audience participation
Subsequent survey of promoters:
Guests commented very positively on
the Coolektiv initiative and showed
great interest in participating in further
expert committee information events
17/04/2019 41
COOLEKTIV participants – initiated by the Westfalen Group
Wolfgang Zaremski –
Asercom AISBL
Heribert Baumeister – Federal Guild
Association (BIV) of the German
Refrigeration Trade
Laurent Zielezinski –
Chemours International
Operations Sàrl
Sebastien Casterman –
Honeywell Deutschland GmbH
Burkhard Rüßmann –
L&R Kältetechnik
Egon Schrezenmaier –
Schrezenmaier Kältetechnik
GmbH & Co. KG
Harald Conrad –
Westfalen AG
17/04/2019 42
Goals of Coolektiv
To identify the problems/challenges of the industryBy compiling & evaluating existing market intelligence
To perform preliminary testsMarket test & event formats (inclusion of other market participants)
To prioritise and evaluate problems/challenges Expert committee & event formats (inclusion of other market participants)
Develop solutions and tools for the market Expert committee
To make solutions and tools available to the marketImplementation & publication by participants of the expert committee
17/04/2019
43
Market-relevant focus topics and working committees
Policy
Illegal placing on
the market of
refrigerants
Operators
and planners
System concepts /
refrigerants
Security /
insurance
Training and
further
education
Normative
DIN standards /
guidelines
17/04/2019 44
Work results and next steps
Sample slides
45
13.11.2018: Expert
committee meeting,
Dortmund
Definition of the relevant
topics / working
committees:
Policy
Operators &
planners
Training and further
education
Press release
Cover letter on the illegal
placing on the market of
refrigerants to the
European Commission
and politically responsible
institutions
Feedback from the
European Commission
Press release
Development of three
focus topics
Definition of next steps
Discussion about
collaboration with VDKF
Supersmart, Mr Jeschkeit
& Mr Egly
Press release
18.01.2019: Political
committee action
2. Cover letter sent to
customs offices, customs
investigation offices and
labour inspectorates on
the illegal placing on the
market of refrigerants
Various feedback
18.01.2019: Expert
committee meeting, Neu-
Isenburg
March 2019: Political
committee action
17/04/2019
Work results and next steps
Sample slides
46
April 2019: Exclusive
interview KKA
Exclusive interview in the
KKA with Mr Kemler, Mr
Zaremski & Mr Zielezinski
on the illegal placing on
the market of refrigerants
After publication: Interview
to be sent to entire
refrigeration/air-
conditioning press
Mr Casterman
(Honeywell) and Mr
Rössling (REWE) present
COOLEKTIV,
presentation of case
studies
Mr Zielezinski/Mr Gerstel
(Chemours) present
COOLEKTIV and outline
the measures for
combating the import of
illegal refrigerants
02.04.2019: EHI Refrigeration
Technology WG, presentation
of COOLEKTIV
Mr Zaremski (Asercom)
presents COOLEKTIV and
outlines the measures for
combating the import of
illegal refrigerants
10.04.2019: EFCTC
meeting, presentation of
COOLEKTIV
15.04.2019: EPEE F-Gas
round table, presentation
of COOLEKTIV
17/04/2019
Work results and next steps
Sample slides
47
16.04.2019: EPEE F-Gas
working group, presentation
of COOLEKTIV
Mr Zaremski (Asercom) to
present the initiative and
outline the measures for
combating the import of
illegal refrigerants
Development of further
content and measures
Coordination of results
with all experts
Definition of next steps
Press release
Presentation of the
previously developed
solutions / measures
Evaluation and further
elaboration of solutions /
measures
Press release
08.05.2019: Expert
committee meeting,
Münster
07.11.2019: COOLEKTIV
Event, Grand Hall
Zollverein, Essen
17/04/2019
Events – The market is also participating in development
COOLEKTIV is in a constant dialogue with the market
This permits the best possible resolution and overcoming of market-relevant
problems and challenges.
At events, the market participants should evaluate the solutions developed so far, test
them and provide a new and important impetus for further development.
In cooperation with the market participants, COOLEKTIV will
develop the best (individual) solutions for the market!
Save the date, 07.11.2019 in the Grand Hall Zeche
Zollverein in Essen!
17/04/2019 48
Any questions?
HFC phase-down implementation: from
a global perspective Didier Coulomb, International Institute of
Refrigeration
www.iifiir.org
EPEE F-GAS ROUNDTABLE
MONDAY 15 APRIL, 2019
HFC PHASE-DOWN IMPLEMENTATION:FROM A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
Didier COULOMB
Director GeneralINTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF REFRIGERATION (IIR) ― www.iifiir.org
53
www.iifiir.org
The Kigali amendment
Entered into force in January 2019
Creates several categories of countries:→Developed countries, the EU is a pioneer→Developing countries, except Gulf countries and
some South Asian countries→Other developing countries→Hot countries (stationary air conditioning)
54
www.iifiir.org
A2 countriesA5 countries
(Group 1)**
A5 countries
(Group 2)***
Baseline 2011-2013 2020-2022 2024-2026
Formula Average HFC
consumption
Average HFC
consumption
Average HFC consumption
HCFC 15% or 25% baseline* 65% baseline 65% baseline
Freeze - 2024 2028
1st step 2019 – 10% 2029 – 10% 2032 – 10%
2nd step 2024 – 40% 2035 – 30% 2037 – 20%
3rd step 2029 – 70% 2040 – 50% 2042 – 30%
4th step 2034 – 80%
Plateau 2036 – 85% 2045 – 80% 2047 – 85%
* Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan** Group 1: Article 5 parties not part of Group 2*** Group 2: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, India, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan
www.iifiir.org
Various willingnesses initially, thus various obligations
But finally, a real ambition almost all over the world Examples:
‒India: R32, hydrocarbons …‒Saudi Arabia: district cooling …
US case
Everywhere, however, the energy issue : A key discussion within the Montreal Protocol bodies A need for internal cooperation to define a national
strategy: the Paris agreement
56
www.iifiir.org
The EU is in advance illegal trade…
But other regions start to change→An opportunity for EU companies→However, an adaptation is necessary: each country
is different. We cannot simply export our models: ex: CO2 as a refrigerant.
→Cooperation UNE – R. Gluckman→Presence of EPEE in international conferences: UN
conference, IIR Congress …
57
www.iifiir.org
25th IIR International Congress of Refrigeration 2019
www.iifiir.org
INSTITUT INTERNATIONAL DU FROID | INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF REFRIGERATIONwww.iifiir.org | [email protected] | | | | #refrigeration
59
Didier Coulomb, Director general
Thank you!
Questions?
Any questions?
Closing remarksAndrea Voigt, EPEE