epi in development: hepb/hib combination vaccine tender overview pre-tender meeting unicef supply...
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EPI in development:
HepB/Hib combination vaccine tender overview
Pre-tender meetingUNICEF Supply Division, 10-11 December 2008Meredith Shirey
Assessment of HepB & Hib combination vaccine procurement objectives
Objective
1. A healthy market: ensuring the sustainable quantity of supply through a diverse supplier base
2. Select products and presentations that best meet the need of client countries
3. Achieving a long-term affordable price that countries can eventually finance in a sustainable manner
Assessment (2007-2009)
1. Significant improvements in supplier base (1 to 5 WHO PQ penta products from 4 manufacturers)
2. Increased availability of liquid products as per country preference, but close management required
3. Mixed. Decline in DTP-HepB price; beginning to see decline in penta price
The positive effect of competition on affordability
Weighted Average Prices for Vaccines
Introduced/Approved penta
Introduced Hib-containing
GAVI has been a catalyst for Hib introduction. From 2009, 53 GAVI-supported countries using or approved to introduce Hib-containing vaccines with procurement through UNICEF- 51 countries with Pentavalent, covering birth cohort of ~37.6 million children per year- 2 countries with other Hib-containing vaccines, covering a birth cohort of ~0.79 million children per year-8 additional countries applied to GAVI in October 2008, covering an additional birth cohort of ~11 million children per year*- 6 GAVI eligible countries remaining for Hib introduction (likely procurement through UNICEF**)
Applied for penta *India did not apply for nationwide introduction
**7 additional GAVI-eligible countries not procuring through UNICEF
Healthy market developing, marked by increased availability & evolving pipeline and expect to see significant price decreases in the next tender period.
Pipeline products Weighted average price PQ products
-
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
160,000,000
180,000,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Do
se
s
Original Quantity on LTA Forecast to Suppliers at beginning of YearQuantity Procured Current Forecasted Quantity Upcoming Tender Quantity
•Steady increase introduction of GAVI support from 2001 with significant increases in 2008 and 2009 due increased availability and introduction in large population countries
DTP-HepB/Hib – Procurement Overview – Historical
-
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
160,000,000
180,000,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Do
se
s
Original Quantity on LTA Forecast to Suppliers at beginning of YearQuantity Procured Current Forecasted Quantity Upcoming Tender Quantity
Upcoming Tender Period
•Steady increase introduction of GAVI support from 2001 with significant increases in 2008 and 2009 due increased availability and introduction in large population countries
DTP-HepB/Hib – Procurement Overview – Forecast
DTP-HepB/Hib – Demand scenario by country product preference
•Strong preference from countries for fully liquid vaccine
•Currently 1,2 and 10 dose presentations with WHO PQ. Countries beginning to state interest in multi-dose vials for fully liquid vaccines
•Possible demand: largely driven by Myanmar & Nigeria
-
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
160,000,000
180,000,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Quantity procured/predictable (lph) Quantity procured/predictable (lqd) Likely Possible
Country preference and inter-changeability of products
Country preference:
For vaccines with two pharmaceutical forms available:• Vaccines covering the same diseases will be considered as one
product for the purpose of the request;
• However in the tender, we will also indicate the estimated number of doses required for each formulation based on country preferences.
• But not at the expense of other procurement objectives (healthy market and affordable prices)
Non Inter-changeability:
Restricts the short term supply management flexibility, but not the longer term security achieved by a healthy market with multiple suppliers.
-
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
160,000,000
180,000,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Do
se
s
GAVI Qty Predictable Likely Possible Non GAVI Qty
DTP-HepB/Hib: starting to see some demand from non-GAVI eligible countries.
•Tender strategy still under review for non-GAVI eligible countries (MICs).
DTP-HepB/Hib – introduction in India
•Demand approx. 40-50 million doses per year, based on the application to GAVI
•Planned introduction in 2009
•Preference for fully liquid, multi-dose vials
•Considering whether separate tender should be issued to cover India demand, pending final approvals from GOI/GAVI
DTP-HepB/Hib Procurement Trends
-
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
GAVI Countries India
Summary of DTP-HepB/Hib tender quantities
*Tender strategy still under review for non-GAVI eligible countries (MICs).
Quantities do not include India (approx. 40-50 million doses per year).
DTP-HepB/Hib
2010 2011 2012GAVI 157,300,000 153,200,000 158,600,000Non-GAVI * 4,900,000 6,800,000 8,800,000Total 162,200,000 160,000,000 167,400,000
-
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Do
ses
Original Quantity on LTA Forecast to Suppliers at beginning of YearQuantity Procured Current Forecasted Quantity Upcoming Tender Quantity
Upcoming Tender Period
•Steady decrease as countries shift to combination vaccines, although some new countries may introduce with GAVI support during the next tender period (possible demand)
DTP-HepB – Procurement Overview – Historical & Forecast
•Majority of demand from GAVI supported countries
•Some possible demand from new countries in next tender period
-
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Do
se
s
GAVI Qty Non GAVI Qty Predictable Possible
DTP-HepB – Procurement Overview – Forecast demand scenarios
Summary of DTP-HepB tender quantities
DTP-HepB
2010 2011 2012Total 5,500,000 7,400,000 7,200,000
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Do
se
s
GAVI Qty Non GAVI Qty
Upcoming Tender Period
Hib – Procurement Overview – Historical & Forecast
• Demand from 1 GAVI-supported country
• Limited quantities of non-GAVI demand
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Do
se
s
Original Quantity on LTA Forecast to Suppliers at beginning of Year
Quantity Procured Current Forecasted Quantity
Upcoming Tender Quantity
Upcoming Tender Period
DTP/Hib – Procurement Overview – Forecast
•LTA established for GAVI quantities only. Non-GAVI quantities through ad hoc procurement
•Demand remains stable during the tender period
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Do
se
s
GAVI Qty Non GAVI Qty
Majority of DTP/Hib demand for non-GAVI eligible countries (mostly Morocco)
Summary of Hib and DTP/Hib tender quantities
Hib
2010 2011 2012GAVI 100,000 100,000 0Non-GAVI * 30,000 30,000 30,000Total 130,000 130,000 30,000
DTP-Hib
2010 2011 2012GAVI 200,000 200,000 100,000Non-GAVI * 2,500,000 2,500,000 2,600,000Total 2,700,000 2,700,000 2,700,000
*Tender strategy still under review for non-GAVI eligible countries (MICs).
HepB & Hib combination vaccine procurement objectives
1. A healthy market: ensuring the sustainable quantity of supply through a diverse supplier base
2. Select products and presentations that best meet the need of client countries
3. Achieving a long-term affordable price that countries can eventually finance in a sustainable manner
UNICEF VACCINES
Thank You