epic research daily agri report 08 jan 2016

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DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT

08 January 2015

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Market Views

2

MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL

TURMERIC

APR 9970 10100 9878 10066 +0.76 6865

INTRADAY

LEVELS

SUPPORT SUPP. 1

9929

SUPP. 2

9793

PIVOT

10015

Turmeric short term

trend is bullish and

May continue in

coming days.RESISTAN

CE

RES. 1

10151

RES. 2

10237

CORIANDER

JAN 7700 7989 7660 7989 +4.00 3020

INTRADAY

LEVELS

SUPPORT SUPP.1

7770

SUPP. 2

7550

PIVOT

7880

Coriander short term

trend is bearish and May

continue in coming

days.RESISTAN

CE

RES. 1

8099

RES. 2

8208

GUARGUM

JAN 6100 6100 5740 5930 -2.79 14507

INTRADAY

LEVELS

SUPPORT SUPP. 1

5747

SUPP. 2

5563

PIVOT

5923

Guargum short term

trend is bearish and

May continue in

coming days.RESISTAN

CE

RES. 1

6107

RES. 2

6283

CASTORSEED

JAN 3690 3740 3670 3700 +0.08 32450

INTRADAY

LEVELS

SUPPORT SUPP. 1

3666

SUPP. 2

3633

PIVOT

3703

Castorseed short term

trend is bearish and

May continue in

coming day.RESISTAN

CE

RES. 1

3737

RES. 2

3773



Most Active Contract

3

NCDEX INDICES

Index ValuePre.

Close

%

Change

CASTORSEED 3660 3665 -0.14

CHANA 4870 4855 +0.31

CORIANDER 7420 7135 +3.99

GUARGUM 5930 6100 -2.79

JEERA 13965 13805 +1.16

MUSTARD

SEED4242 4220 +0.52

SOYABEAN 3647 3595 +1.45

TURMERIC 10066 9990 +0.76

TOP LOSERS

SYMBOL EXPIRY DATECURRENT

PRICE

CHANGECHANGE

%

CORIANDER 20-01-2016 7420.00 310.00 4.36%

SOYABEAN 20-01-2016 3647.00 51.00 1.42%

JEERA 20-01-2016 13965.00 175.00 1.27%

CHANA 20-01-2016 4870.00 50.00 1.04%

TURMERIC 20-04-2016 10066.00 88.00 0.88%

RAPESEED-MUSTARD

SEED20-01-2016 4242.00 36.00 0.86%

CASTOR SEED NEW 20-01-2016 3660.00 1.00 0.03%

TOP GAINERS

SYMBOL EXPIRY DATECURRENT

PRICECHANGE CHANGE %

BARLEY 20-01-2016 1351.00 -39.00 -2.81%



Commodities In News

4

ECONOMIC NEWS

Having herald Green Revolution in the past, farmers in Punjab are now

keen on Green energy by setting up solar projects in their farms. Solar

power proposals to set up projects of capacity 629 MW by farmers have

poured in against the target of 500 MW set by Punjab Energy Development

Agency under the Farmers' Solar Scheme."As such projects doesn't include

the cost of land the entire cost could be covered in 7-8 years," says

Ravinder Bansal a farmer from Muktsar who is keen to install solar project

of capacity 2 MW on part of his family owned ancestral land. Under the

scheme the PEDA facilitates Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with

Punjab State Power Corporation Limited. The PPA is effective for a period

of 25 years from the date of commissioning of the project.But Bansal is

unsure whether his project will get nod from the agency. As after Prime

Minister Narendra Modi ramped up Solar target in June last year to 100

GW by 2022, more and more farmers have evinced interest in the scheme.The scheme was launched by Punjab government in the beginning of the

current financial year."A large number of proposals will not get approved

as the target under the current scheme is 500 MW," chief executive, Punjab

Energy Development Agency Amarpal Singh told a leading newspaper.

Singh said that the scheme is part of the strategy to promote small grid

based solar projects.Against PEDA announced tariff of Rs 7.4 per kwh,

lowest tariff of Rs 6.25 per kwh have been offered by a famer under the

reverse bidding process, senior official in Punjab Energy Development

Agency said.As many as 381 farmers so far have submitted proposals to set

up solar power projects in the state. Under the scheme, PEDA is promoting projects with capacity between 1 MW to 2.5 MW from farmers who owns

land. A project of one-MW capacity requires around five-acre of land."The

projects are expected to be approved in the coming weeks," senior official

in Punjab Energy Development Agency said. Farmers are awaiting

extension of the scheme as a large number of projects are unlikely to be

covered under the scheme due to overwhelming response to the scheme.

Mustard Seed settled down on weak export demand and on

oversupply woes. There is subdued demand from retail buyers as prices

have increased. Mustard oil consumption has fallen over the past two to

three months by almost 60% as prices increased to 120 -130 per liter.

However, good sowing progress subdued demand for meal exports and

record mustard oil imports also putting pressure on prices. There is aworry in the industry about the rabi crop as the winter chill, which is

required for the mustard crop, is still missing.Area coverage of RM

seed this year is lower by 3.5 lakh ha compared to corresponding

period of Rabi 2014-15 as per latest government data release. Mustard

is planted on 60.8 lakh hectare. In Rajasthan, 23.7 lh has been sown as

on Dec 17, compared to 24.34 lh sown last year same time. On the

export front, the shipment of rapeseed meal exports plunge y/y by more

than 61.4 per cent until November to 2.95 lt.According to latest USDA

report, Global rapeseed production is projected at 67.5 mt, up 0.5 mtcompared to last month’s forecast. Canada rapeseed production is

raised 1.7 mt to 17.2 mt.

Ref Soya oil settled down on weak global cues, physical demand and

slack buying support in soya meal. Moreover, reports on more than two

fold increase in soyoil imports in Nov compared to last year data

capped further rise. Import of soybean oil rose more than twofold to 2,

61,338 tonnes in November from 1, 21,097 tonnes in the year-ago

period. Recently, Argentina government has removed export duty on

soybean and soya oil to make their exports competitive, which resultsin falling in the international markets. Earlier, the Agriculture Ministry

has proposed further hike in import duty of edible oils by 5 per cent in

a bid to protect the interest of farmers, but the decision is still pending.

The Ministry has proposed increase in import duty on crude edible oils

to 17.5 per cent and on refined edible oils to 25 per cent from the

existing level. According to latest SEA report, import of vegetable oils

during November 2015 is reported at 1.34 mt compared to 1.19 mt for

November 2014.



5

Fundamental Watch : Castorseed

CASTORSEED PRICES AT KEY SPOT

MARKETNational Market Update

Good production prospects, higher availability of old stock and declining

prices despite better demand for oil from overseas market would continue to

encourage buyers to cover their short position. New crop will hit the marketone month earlier and pressure on market fundamental may continue.

India exported almost double volume of castor oil in the week ending 3rd

Jan-2016.Total oil export was registered at 14339.39 tonne against 71125

tonne exported in the last week of Dec-2015..France and USA brought 5500

and 4523 tonne oil. Average FoB realized during the week was $1334.55 per

tonne. The highest and lowest quotes were $1836.6 & $1106.50 per tonne.

This year seed production may cross 15 lakh tonne while actual yearly

consumption is not more than12/12.5 lakh tonne seed. With ample availability

seed prices may slip below Rs 3000 in the peak arrival season. This year oil

export has increased by 7 % so far. However, higher stock did not allow

market to get firmer so far. Overall sentiment remains bearish.

Agriculture statistics Division, DES has released its 1st Adv estimates of

Production of food-grains for 2015-16 on 16.09.2015.It has estimated 19.44

lakh tonne seed production this year. The production target for 2015-16 has been fixed at 20.34 lakh ton. India has produced 19.63 lakh tonne castor seed

in 2014-15 as per revised 1st Adv estimate. Private trade estimate for the year

is much lower and is between 15 to 16 lakh tonne for 2015-16.However,it is

too early to talk about the final size as sowing is just over.

CENTER 07-Jan-15 06-Jan-15 Change

SUMERPUR NA NA -

PATAN 3450 3525 -75

MEHSANA 3475 3500 -25

BHABAR 3525 3550 -25

HARJI 3575 3550 +25

RAJKOT 3385 3445 -60

KADI 3500 3540 -40



Technical Outlook

6

BUY CORIANDER JAN ABOVE 7450 TARGET 7500 7590 SL

BELOW 7383

BUY GUARGUM JAN ABOVE 6100 TARGET 6150 6220 SL

BELOW 6040

BUY TURMERIC APRIL ABOVE 10120 TARGET 10165 10225 SL

BELOW 10050

SELL CASTORSEED JAN BELOW 3650 TARGET 3625 3585 SL

ABOVE 3700



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epic research daily agri report 08 jan 2016

Documents

farmers solar scheme

solar projects

coming days

intraday levels support

solar target

projects of capacity

mw set

intraday levelssupport