erccot ordc options analysis · 1. june 1, 2014 – october 31, 2015 2. january 1, 2011 –...

Version 1.0

ERCOT ORDC Options Analysis

January 5, 2015

SAWG

Market Analysis, ERCOT

[ ERCOT ORDC Options Analysis ] Back to TOC ↑

Market Analys is | ERCOT Publ ic E lect r ic Rel iab i l i ty Counci l o f Texas, Inc. | Page 1

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Table of Contents

List of Figures ................................................................................................................................................ 2

List of Tables ................................................................................................................................................. 3

Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 4

Options ...................................................................................................................................................... 5

Section 1: June 1, 2014 – October 31, 2015 Backcast .................................................................................. 7

Real-Time On-Line Price Adder ................................................................................................................. 7

Additional Peaker Net Margin ................................................................................................................ 13

Real-Time On-Line Price Adder Histogram ............................................................................................. 15

Probability of Falling Below Minimum Contingency Level on August 13, 2015 ..................................... 19

Section 2: January 1, 2011 – December 31, 2011 Backcast ........................................................................ 20

Real-Time On-Line Price Adder ............................................................................................................... 20

Additional Peaker Net Margin ................................................................................................................ 26

Real-Time On-Line Price Adder Histogram ............................................................................................. 28

Probability of Falling Below Minimum Contingency Level on August 3, 2011 ....................................... 31

Section 3: Sensitivity Analysis ..................................................................................................................... 32

Section 4: Add Demand Curves to DAM – Snapshot from August 13, 2015 Online ORDC Curve as an

Example (Option 2) ..................................................................................................................................... 39

Example for options 0,1,3,4 .................................................................................................................... 40

Section 5: X = URS + RRS – A look at the 2016 AS Methodology Values (Options 6 & 7) ........................... 41

Without RRS Floor ................................................................................................................................... 41

With RRS Floor of 2,750 MW .................................................................................................................. 43



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List of Figures

Figure 1. Energy and Time Weighted Average RTORPA of All Hours (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015) .................. 7

Figure 2. Time Weighted Average RTORPA of All Hours (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015) ..................................... 7

Figure 3. ONPEAK Energy and Time Weighted Average RTORPA (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015) ....................... 8

Figure 4. ONPEAK Time Weighted Average RTORPA (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015) .......................................... 8

Figure 5. OFFPEAK Energy and Time Weighted Average RTORPA (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015) ...................... 9

Figure 6. OFFPEAK Time Weighted Average RTORPA (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015) ......................................... 9

Figure 7. Energy and Time Weighted Average RTORPA of All Hours by Month (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015) 11

Figure 8. Time Weighted Average RTORPA of All Hours by Month (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015) .................. 12

Figure 9. Sum of Estimated Additional PNM with ORDC (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015) ................................... 13

Figure 10. Sum of Estimated Additional PNM with ORDC by Month (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015) ................ 14

Figure 11. Number of Hours where RTORPA > Threshold (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015) ................................. 15

Figure 12. Max PBMCL on August 13, 2015 ................................................................................................ 19

Figure 13. Energy and Time Weighted Average RTORPA of All Hours (2011) ............................................ 20

Figure 14. Time Weighted Average RTORPA of All Hours (2011) ............................................................... 20

Figure 15. ONPEAK Energy and Time Weighted Average RTORPA (2011).................................................. 21

Figure 16. ONPEAK Time Weighted Average RTORPA (2011)..................................................................... 21

Figure 17. OFFPEAK Energy and Time Weighted Average RTORPA (2011) ................................................ 22

Figure 18. OFFPEAK Time Weighted Average RTORPA (2011) ................................................................... 22

Figure 19. Energy and Time Weighted Average RTORPA of All Hours by Month (2011)............................ 24

Figure 20. Time Weighted Average RTORPA of All Hours by Month (2011) .............................................. 25

Figure 21. Sum of Estimated Additional PNM with ORDC (2011) ............................................................... 26

Figure 22. Sum of Estimated Additional PNM with ORDC by Month (2011) .............................................. 27

Figure 23. Number of Hours where RTORPA > Threshold (2011) ............................................................... 28

Figure 24. Max PBMCL on August 3, 2011 .................................................................................................. 31

Figure 25. Energy and Time Weighted RTORPA Sensitivity to Market Behavior (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015)

.................................................................................................................................................................... 33

Figure 26. Time Weighted RTORPA Sensitivity to Market Behavior (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015) ................. 34

Figure 27. Additional Peaker Net Margin from ORDC Sensitivity to Market Behavior (6/1/2014 –

10/31/2015) ................................................................................................................................................ 35

Figure 28. Energy and Time Weighted RTORPA Sensitivity to Market Behavior (2011) ............................ 36

Figure 29. Time Weighted RTORPA Sensitivity to Market Behavior (2011) ............................................... 37

Figure 30. Additional Peaker Net Margin from ORDC Sensitivity to Market Behavior (2011) ................... 38

Figure 31. August 13, 2015 HE17 Online ORDC Curve (VOLL * LOLPs) Overlaid with AS Requirements.... 39

Figure 32. Heat map of URS + RRS without RRS floor from 2016 AS Methodology ................................... 41

Figure 33. Heat map of URS + RRS with RRS floored at 2750 MW from 2016 AS Methodology ................ 43



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List of Tables

Table 1. Proposed options ............................................................................................................................ 5

Table 2. Averages of RTORPA (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015) ............................................................................ 10

Table 3. Energy and Time Weighted Average RTORPA of All Hours by Month (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015) . 11

Table 4. Time Weighted Average RTORPA of All Hours by Month (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015) .................... 12

Table 5. Sum of Estimated Additional PNM with ORDC (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015) .................................... 13

Table 6. Sum of Estimated Additional PNM with ORDC by Month (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015) ................... 14

Table 7. Number of Hours where RTORPA > Threshold (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015) .................................... 15

Table 8. Number of Hours where RTORPA > $100/MWh by Month (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015) ................. 16

Table 9. Number of Hours where RTORPA > $500/MWh by Month (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015) ................. 16

Table 10. Number of Hours where RTORPA > $1,000/MWh by Month (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015) ............ 17




Table 14. Max PBMCL on August 13, 2015 ................................................................................................. 19

Table 15. Averages of RTORPA (2011) ........................................................................................................ 23

Table 16. Energy and Time Weighted Average RTORPA of All Hours by Month (2011) ............................. 24

Table 17. Time Weighted Average RTORPA of All Hours by Month (2011) ................................................ 25

Table 18. Sum of Estimated Additional PNM with ORDC (2011) ................................................................ 26

Table 19. Sum of Estimated Additional PNM with ORDC by Month (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015) ................. 27

Table 20. Number of Hours where RTORPA > Threshold (2011) ................................................................ 28

Table 21. Number of Hours where RTORPA > $100/MWh by Month (2011) ............................................. 29

Table 22. Number of Hours where RTORPA > $500/MWh by Month (2011) ............................................. 29

Table 23. Number of Hours where RTORPA > $1,000/MWh by Month (2011) .......................................... 29




Table 27. Max PBMCL on August 3, 2011 ................................................................................................... 31

Table 28. Energy and Time Weighted RTORPA Sensitivity to Market Behavior (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015) 33

Table 29. Time Weighted RTORPA Sensitivity to Market Behavior (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015) ................... 34

Table 30. Additional Peaker Net Margin from ORDC Sensitivity to Market Behavior (6/1/2014 –

10/31/2015) ................................................................................................................................................ 35

Table 31. Energy and Time Weighted RTORPA Sensitivity to Market Behavior (2011) .............................. 36

Table 32. Time Weighted RTORPA Sensitivity to Market Behavior (2011) ................................................. 37

Table 33. Additional Peaker Net Margin from ORDC Sensitivity to Market Behavior (2011) ..................... 38

Table 34. Penalty Price of AS Demand Curve for last MW of AS Requirement in DAM using August 13,

2015 HE17 Online ORDC Curve as an Example ........................................................................................... 40

Table 35. URS + RRS without RRS floor from 2016 AS Methodology ......................................................... 42

Table 36. URS + RRS with RRS floored at 2750 MW from 2016 AS Methodology ...................................... 44

Table 37. Individual URS and RRS tables from 2016 AS Methodology Requirements ............................... 45



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Introduction

Options for changing the Operation Reserve Demand Curve (ORDC) parameters were proposed

at the November 13, 20151 and December 2, 20152 Supply Analysis Working Group (SAWG).

ERCOT was asked to analyze the options and present the following results:

1. Additional Peaker Net Margin (PNM) contributed by ORDC

2. Real-time On-line Price Adder (RTORPA)

3. Number of hours histogram where RTORPA was greater than $100/MWh, $500/MWh,

and $1,000/MWh

Following the December 16, 2015 SAWG meeting, clarification was needed on the weighting

method used for calculating RTORPA. As a result, two weighting methods will be presented:

1. Energy and Time-weighted RTORPA (originally presented on December 16, 2015)

2. Time-weighted RTORPA

Energy is weighted by generation to be dispatched (GTBD) and time is weighted by each SCED

interval length. Calculations using on-peak hours include hour ending 0700-2200 CPT weekdays

and exclude NERC defined holidays. Off-peak hours include all other hours.

ERCOT was asked to analyze the following dates with actual FIPs:

1. June 1, 2014 – October 31, 2015

2. January 1, 2011 – December 31, 2011

Market behavior changes after ORDC implementation, changes in the System-Wide Offer Cap

(SWOC), and changes in price floors will significantly affect the validity of 2011 backcast results.

Additionally, it is recommended to use the backcast only to compare options since changes in

market behavior can affect both periods

How does the market behavior price response mechanism work? Using the proposed options,

the new RTORPA is calculated for each option. If System Lambda plus the new RTORPA is greater

than the price response value (i.e. $75), then offline and available capacity with cold start time

greater than 30 minutes is added to the Real-Time On-Line Capacity (RTOLCAP) until either offline

and available capacity is exhausted or System Lambda + RTORPA reaches the price response

value.

1 http://www.ercot.com/calendar/2015/11/13/78245-SAWG 2 http://www.ercot.com/calendar/2015/12/2/80827-SAWG

http://www.ercot.com/calendar/2015/11/13/78245-SAWG




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Options

Current ORDC implementation values are in red.

See ORDC Options Whitepaper from 12-16-15 for more details3.

Table 1. Proposed options

Option 0 – Base Case No Response

X = 2000

VOLL = $9,000

SWOC = $9,000

RDF = 0.99

PRC Threshold to set RTOFFCAP to 0 = 2300

Option 1 – Base Case

Option 0 with price response at $75/MWh

Option 2

Convert ORDC into Ancillary Services Demand Curves in the DAM

3 http://www.ercot.com/calendar/2015/12/2/80827-SAWG

Option Minimum RRSValue of X

(MCL)VOLL

Effective

Price Cap

Price

ResponseOther

0 2,300 MW 2,000 MW $9,000 $9,000 None

1 2,300 MW 2,000 MW $9,000 $9,000 $75

2

3 2,300 MW 2,000 MW $9,000 $9,000 $75 Discount Factor = 0.98 (0.99)

4 2,300 MW 2,000 MW $9,000 $9,000 $75 RTOFFCAP = 0 when PRC < 2500 (2300)

5

6 2,750 MWSum of

RRS & URS$18,000 $9,000 $75

7 2,750 MWSum of

RRS & URS$9,000 $9,000 $75

RTORPA+System Lambda = $4,500

when PRC < 2,500 MW (None)

RTORPA+System Lambda = $9,000

when PRC < 2,300 MW (None)

8 2,300 MW 2,300 MW $12,000 $9,000 $75

9 2,750 MW 2,750 MW $18,000 $9,000 $75

10 2,300 MW 1,708 MW $18,000 $9,000 $75

See Section 4

Same results as base case




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Option 3 – RDF=0.98

Price response at $75/MWh

RDF = 0.98

Option 4 – RTOFFCAP=0 PRC<2500


PRC Threshold to set RTOFFCAP to 0 = 2500

Option 5

Upon deployment of NSRS by the ERCOT operator, require all Quick Start Resources providing NSRS to

come physically online. Note: This would not change RTOLCAP if implemented but would increase PRC.

Option 6 – X=RRS+URS VOLL=18000


X = RRS + URS

Min. RRS = 2750

VOLL = $18,000

Option 7 – X=RRS+URS Price Floor


X = RRS + URS

Min. RRS = 2750

Floor Price to $4,500 when PRC<2500 and Price to $9,000 when PRC<2300

Option 8 – X=2300 VOLL=12000


X = 2300

VOLL = $12,000

Option 9 – X=2750 VOLL=18000


X = 2750

VOLL = $18,000

Option 10 – X=1708 VOLL=18000


X = 1708

VOLL = $18,000



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Section 1: June 1, 2014 – October 31, 2015 Backcast

Real-Time On-Line Price Adder

Figure 1. Energy and Time Weighted Average RTORPA of All Hours (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015)

Figure 2. Time Weighted Average RTORPA of All Hours (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015)



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Figure 3. ONPEAK Energy and Time Weighted Average RTORPA (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015)

Figure 4. ONPEAK Time Weighted Average RTORPA (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015)



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Figure 5. OFFPEAK Energy and Time Weighted Average RTORPA (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015)

Figure 6. OFFPEAK Time Weighted Average RTORPA (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015)



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Table 2. Averages of RTORPA (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015)

OptionEnergy and Time

Weighted Average

RTORPA($/MWh)

Time Weighted

Average

RTORPA($/MWh)

ONPEAK Energy and

Time Weighted

Average

RTORPA($/MWh)

ONPEAK Time

Weighted Average

RTORPA($/MWh)

OFFPEAK Energy and

Time Weighted

Average

RTORPA($/MWh)

OFFPEAK Time

Weighted Average

RTORPA($/MWh)

0: Base Case

No Reponse1.05$ 0.71$ 1.81$ 1.31$ 0.25$ 0.19$

1: Base Case 0.66$ 0.43$ 1.21$ 0.85$ 0.07$ 0.05$

3: RDF=0.98 0.73$ 0.48$ 1.33$ 0.94$ 0.08$ 0.06$

4: RTOFFCAP=0

PRC<25000.66$ 0.43$ 1.23$ 0.86$ 0.07$ 0.05$

6: X=RRS+URS

VOLL=1800010.71$ 7.32$ 18.94$ 13.80$ 1.97$ 1.65$

7: X=RRS+URS

Price Floor6.44$ 4.52$ 11.13$ 8.28$ 1.46$ 1.22$

8: X=2300

VOLL=120001.66$ 1.10$ 3.01$ 2.15$ 0.23$ 0.18$

9: X=2750

VOLL=180005.72$ 3.84$ 10.26$ 7.36$ 0.91$ 0.75$

10: X=1708

VOLL=180000.67$ 0.43$ 1.26$ 0.87$ 0.05$ 0.04$



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Figure 7. Energy and Time Weighted Average RTORPA of All Hours by Month (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015)

Table 3. Energy and Time Weighted Average RTORPA of All Hours by Month (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015)

Month0: Base Case

No Response

1: Base

Case3: RDF=0.98

4: RTOFFCAP=0

PRC<2500

6: X=RRS+URS

VOLL=18000

7: X=RRS+URS

Price Floor

8: X=2300

VOLL=12000

9: X=2750

VOLL=18000

10: X=1708

VOLL=18000

6/2014 0.03$ 0.01$ 0.02$ 0.01$ 0.56$ 0.40$ 0.05$ 0.24$ 0.01$

7/2014 0.13$ 0.05$ 0.06$ 0.05$ 1.77$ 1.26$ 0.19$ 0.73$ 0.03$

8/2014 0.80$ 0.27$ 0.29$ 0.27$ 3.11$ 2.34$ 0.55$ 1.50$ 0.23$

9/2014 0.13$ 0.04$ 0.04$ 0.04$ 1.56$ 1.12$ 0.13$ 0.58$ 0.02$

10/2014 0.35$ 0.06$ 0.07$ 0.06$ 2.43$ 1.84$ 0.22$ 0.96$ 0.03$

11/2014 0.15$ 0.03$ 0.04$ 0.03$ 1.97$ 1.44$ 0.13$ 0.73$ 0.02$

12/2014 0.11$ 0.09$ 0.10$ 0.09$ 2.20$ 1.51$ 0.23$ 0.82$ 0.07$

1/2015 0.10$ 0.05$ 0.06$ 0.05$ 1.10$ 0.77$ 0.13$ 0.42$ 0.04$

2/2015 0.66$ 0.08$ 0.09$ 0.08$ 2.62$ 1.89$ 0.24$ 1.08$ 0.06$

3/2015 0.49$ 0.24$ 0.29$ 0.24$ 7.68$ 5.75$ 0.82$ 3.48$ 0.17$

4/2015 0.96$ 0.32$ 0.37$ 0.32$ 4.51$ 3.47$ 0.86$ 2.41$ 0.25$

5/2015 0.79$ 0.24$ 0.28$ 0.24$ 4.83$ 3.78$ 0.77$ 2.60$ 0.18$

6/2015 0.14$ 0.10$ 0.12$ 0.10$ 3.56$ 2.54$ 0.34$ 1.62$ 0.06$

7/2015 2.12$ 1.23$ 1.36$ 1.23$ 23.65$ 12.08$ 3.04$ 11.12$ 1.27$

8/2015 8.32$ 6.39$ 6.97$ 6.50$ 89.28$ 50.70$ 15.54$ 51.73$ 6.89$

9/2015 0.43$ 0.23$ 0.27$ 0.23$ 4.49$ 3.68$ 0.75$ 2.48$ 0.15$

10/2015 0.05$ 0.04$ 0.05$ 0.04$ 2.61$ 1.96$ 0.18$ 1.12$ 0.02$



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Figure 8. Time Weighted Average RTORPA of All Hours by Month (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015)

Table 4. Time Weighted Average RTORPA of All Hours by Month (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015)

Month0: Base Case

No Response

1: Base

Case3: RDF=0.98

4: RTOFFCAP=0

PRC<2500

6: X=RRS+URS

VOLL=18000

7: X=RRS+URS

Price Floor

8: X=2300

VOLL=12000

9: X=2750

VOLL=18000

10: X=1708

VOLL=18000

6/2014 0.02$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.46$ 0.33$ 0.04$ 0.19$ 0.01$

7/2014 0.10$ 0.04$ 0.05$ 0.04$ 1.46$ 1.02$ 0.15$ 0.59$ 0.03$

8/2014 0.64$ 0.21$ 0.24$ 0.21$ 2.58$ 1.93$ 0.45$ 1.22$ 0.18$

9/2014 0.11$ 0.03$ 0.04$ 0.03$ 1.27$ 0.91$ 0.10$ 0.48$ 0.02$

10/2014 0.29$ 0.05$ 0.06$ 0.05$ 2.15$ 1.62$ 0.19$ 0.84$ 0.03$

11/2014 0.13$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 1.86$ 1.36$ 0.12$ 0.69$ 0.02$

12/2014 0.11$ 0.08$ 0.09$ 0.08$ 2.08$ 1.42$ 0.22$ 0.77$ 0.06$

1/2015 0.08$ 0.04$ 0.05$ 0.04$ 0.95$ 0.66$ 0.10$ 0.35$ 0.03$

2/2015 0.52$ 0.07$ 0.08$ 0.07$ 2.38$ 1.71$ 0.22$ 0.98$ 0.05$

3/2015 0.43$ 0.22$ 0.26$ 0.22$ 7.18$ 5.35$ 0.74$ 3.22$ 0.15$

4/2015 0.81$ 0.28$ 0.33$ 0.28$ 4.19$ 3.21$ 0.77$ 2.20$ 0.22$

5/2015 0.62$ 0.21$ 0.24$ 0.21$ 4.28$ 3.34$ 0.67$ 2.27$ 0.15$

6/2015 0.11$ 0.08$ 0.09$ 0.08$ 2.91$ 2.07$ 0.27$ 1.31$ 0.05$

7/2015 1.59$ 0.92$ 1.01$ 0.92$ 17.81$ 9.11$ 2.28$ 8.35$ 0.95$

8/2015 6.11$ 4.69$ 5.12$ 4.77$ 65.65$ 37.34$ 11.42$ 38.03$ 5.06$

9/2015 0.34$ 0.19$ 0.22$ 0.19$ 3.61$ 2.95$ 0.60$ 1.98$ 0.12$

10/2015 0.04$ 0.03$ 0.04$ 0.03$ 2.26$ 1.70$ 0.16$ 0.96$ 0.02$



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Additional Peaker Net Margin

Figure 9. Sum of Estimated Additional PNM with ORDC (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015)

Table 5. Sum of Estimated Additional PNM with ORDC (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015)

OptionSum of Estimated

PNM without

ORDC

Sum of Estimated

Additional PNM

with ORDC

0: Base Case

No Reponse8,818$

1: Base Case 5,254$

3: RDF=0.98 5,831$

4: RTOFFCAP=0

PRC<25005,314$

6: X=RRS+URS

VOLL=1800089,522$

7: X=RRS+URS

Price Floor55,022$

8: X=2300

VOLL=1200013,517$

9: X=2750

VOLL=1800047,056$

10: X=1708

VOLL=180005,260$

42,731$



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Figure 10. Sum of Estimated Additional PNM with ORDC by Month (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015)

Table 6. Sum of Estimated Additional PNM with ORDC by Month (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015)

Month0: Base Case

No Response

1: Base

Case3: RDF=0.98

4: RTOFFCAP=0

PRC<2500

6: X=RRS+URS

VOLL=18000

7: X=RRS+URS

Price Floor

8: X=2300

VOLL=12000

9: X=2750

VOLL=18000

10: X=1708

VOLL=18000

6/2014 14.86$ 7.36$ 8.87$ 7.36$ 305.97$ 217.27$ 28.17$ 128.83$ 4.92$

7/2014 69.75$ 29.28$ 35.52$ 29.28$ 998.82$ 699.81$ 104.33$ 413.44$ 19.27$

8/2014 473.71$ 157.52$ 173.72$ 157.52$ 1,846.57$ 1,389.05$ 326.54$ 888.93$ 134.37$

9/2014 76.13$ 21.34$ 25.48$ 21.34$ 900.39$ 644.86$ 73.87$ 340.78$ 14.10$

10/2014 214.86$ 35.78$ 43.58$ 35.78$ 1,521.75$ 1,153.09$ 135.47$ 596.89$ 21.31$

11/2014 86.20$ 16.54$ 20.20$ 16.54$ 1,164.19$ 851.87$ 70.18$ 431.18$ 9.99$

12/2014 62.67$ 44.84$ 51.88$ 44.84$ 1,201.24$ 798.00$ 118.62$ 419.45$ 35.59$

1/2015 54.00$ 26.86$ 30.57$ 26.86$ 628.04$ 430.34$ 66.16$ 226.74$ 22.28$

2/2015 343.78$ 39.23$ 46.26$ 39.23$ 1,520.89$ 1,081.91$ 132.59$ 617.93$ 28.84$

3/2015 300.44$ 143.71$ 172.28$ 143.71$ 5,084.24$ 3,767.30$ 505.38$ 2,259.15$ 99.12$

4/2015 583.11$ 202.09$ 231.79$ 202.09$ 2,909.51$ 2,232.03$ 547.75$ 1,545.47$ 156.83$

5/2015 454.13$ 145.29$ 171.83$ 145.29$ 3,060.30$ 2,382.47$ 477.50$ 1,630.15$ 107.49$

6/2015 77.00$ 54.52$ 65.97$ 54.52$ 2,055.34$ 1,462.64$ 193.75$ 930.77$ 33.67$

7/2015 1,186.30$ 682.24$ 754.96$ 682.24$ 13,244.37$ 6,772.57$ 1,693.03$ 6,209.98$ 708.81$

8/2015 4,543.84$ 3,489.59$ 3,809.42$ 3,549.14$ 48,845.74$ 27,783.47$ 8,498.72$ 28,290.83$ 3,761.93$

9/2015 245.87$ 134.43$ 158.34$ 134.43$ 2,578.62$ 2,111.61$ 431.38$ 1,417.91$ 88.85$

10/2015 31.73$ 23.84$ 30.00$ 23.84$ 1,656.42$ 1,243.23$ 113.70$ 707.79$ 12.55$



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Real-Time On-Line Price Adder Histogram

Figure 11. Number of Hours where RTORPA > Threshold (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015)

Table 7. Number of Hours where RTORPA > Threshold (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015)

Option# of Hours RTORPA >

100 $/MWh

# of Hours RTORPA >

500 $/MWh

# of Hours RTORPA >

1000 $/MWh

0: Base Case

No Reponse18.05 2.25 0.00

1: Base Case 12.00 0.58 0.00

3: RDF=0.98 12.34 1.33 0.00

4: RTOFFCAP=0

PRC<250012.00 0.75 0.00

6: X=RRS+URS

VOLL=1800036.67 23.54 17.00

7: X=RRS+URS

Price Floor31.96 16.84 11.33

8: X=2300

VOLL=1200018.42 7.17 2.00

9: X=2750

VOLL=1800029.88 16.51 11.58

10: X=1708

VOLL=1800012.09 1.75 0.00



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Table 8. Number of Hours where RTORPA > $100/MWh by Month (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015)

Table 9. Number of Hours where RTORPA > $500/MWh by Month (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015)

Month0: Base Case

No Response

1: Base

Case3: RDF=0.98

4: RTOFFCAP=0

PRC<2500

6: X=RRS+URS

VOLL=18000

7: X=RRS+URS

Price Floor

8: X=2300

VOLL=12000

9: X=2750

VOLL=18000

10: X=1708

VOLL=18000

6/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

7/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

8/2014 0.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

9/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

10/2014 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

11/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

12/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

1/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2/2015 1.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

3/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

4/2015 1.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

5/2015 1.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

6/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

7/2015 3.04 2.17 2.25 2.17 12.75 10.29 3.75 9.12 2.25

8/2015 10.84 9.84 10.09 9.84 23.84 21.68 14.67 20.76 9.84

9/2015 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

10/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Month0: Base Case

No Response

1: Base

Case3: RDF=0.98

4: RTOFFCAP=0

PRC<2500

6: X=RRS+URS

VOLL=18000

7: X=RRS+URS

Price Floor

8: X=2300

VOLL=12000

9: X=2750

VOLL=18000

10: X=1708

VOLL=18000

6/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

7/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

8/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

9/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

10/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

11/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

12/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

1/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

3/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

4/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

5/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

6/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

7/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.29 3.75 0.83 3.34 0.00

8/2015 2.25 0.58 1.33 0.75 17.25 13.09 6.33 13.17 1.75

9/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

10/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00



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Table 10. Number of Hours where RTORPA > $1,000/MWh by Month (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015)


Month0: Base Case

No Response

1: Base

Case3: RDF=0.98

4: RTOFFCAP=0

PRC<2500

6: X=RRS+URS

VOLL=18000

7: X=RRS+URS

Price Floor

8: X=2300

VOLL=12000

9: X=2750

VOLL=18000

10: X=1708

VOLL=18000

6/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

7/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

8/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

9/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

10/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

11/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

12/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

1/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

3/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

4/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

5/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

6/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

7/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.83 2.00 0.00 2.08 0.00

8/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.17 9.33 2.00 9.50 0.00

9/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

10/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Month0: Base Case

No Response

1: Base

Case3: RDF=0.98

4: RTOFFCAP=0

PRC<2500

6: X=RRS+URS

VOLL=18000

7: X=RRS+URS

Price Floor

8: X=2300

VOLL=12000

9: X=2750

VOLL=18000

10: X=1708

VOLL=18000

6/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

7/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

8/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

9/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

10/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

11/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

12/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

1/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

3/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

4/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

5/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

6/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

7/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

8/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.50 1.75 0.00 2.25 0.00

9/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

10/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00



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Month0: Base Case

No Response

1: Base

Case3: RDF=0.98

4: RTOFFCAP=0

PRC<2500

6: X=RRS+URS

VOLL=18000

7: X=RRS+URS

Price Floor

8: X=2300

VOLL=12000

9: X=2750

VOLL=18000

10: X=1708

VOLL=18000

6/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

7/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

8/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

9/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

10/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

11/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

12/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

1/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

3/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

4/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

5/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

6/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

7/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

8/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

9/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

10/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Month0: Base Case

No Response

1: Base

Case3: RDF=0.98

4: RTOFFCAP=0

PRC<2500

6: X=RRS+URS

VOLL=18000

7: X=RRS+URS

Price Floor

8: X=2300

VOLL=12000

9: X=2750

VOLL=18000

10: X=1708

VOLL=18000

6/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

7/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

8/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

9/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

10/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

11/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

12/2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

1/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

3/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

4/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

5/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

6/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

7/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

8/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

9/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

10/2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00



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Probability of Falling Below Minimum Contingency Level on August 13, 2015

Figure 12. Max PBMCL on August 13, 2015

Table 14. Max PBMCL on August 13, 2015

OptionMax PBMCL on

August 13, 2015

by SCED Interval

0: Base Case 6.2%

1: Base Case

Price Response5.8%

3: RDF=0.98 6.2%

4: RTOFFCAP=0

PRC<25007.0%

6: X=RRS+URS

VOLL=1800029.3%

7: X=RRS+URS

Price Floor29.3%

8: X=2300

VOLL=120009.6%

9: X=2750

VOLL=1800018.8%

10: X=1708

VOLL=180003.4%



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Section 2: January 1, 2011 – December 31, 2011 Backcast

Real-Time On-Line Price Adder

Figure 13. Energy and Time Weighted Average RTORPA of All Hours (2011)

Figure 14. Time Weighted Average RTORPA of All Hours (2011)



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Figure 15. ONPEAK Energy and Time Weighted Average RTORPA (2011)

Figure 16. ONPEAK Time Weighted Average RTORPA (2011)



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Figure 17. OFFPEAK Energy and Time Weighted Average RTORPA (2011)

Figure 18. OFFPEAK Time Weighted Average RTORPA (2011)



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Table 15. Averages of RTORPA (2011)

OptionEnergy and Time

Weighted Average

RTORPA($/MWh)

Time Weighted

Average

RTORPA($/MWh)

ONPEAK Energy and

Time Weighted

Average

RTORPA($/MWh)

ONPEAK Time

Weighted Average

RTORPA($/MWh)

OFFPEAK Energy and

Time Weighted

Average

RTORPA($/MWh)

OFFPEAK Time

Weighted Average

RTORPA($/MWh)

0: Base Case

No Reponse29.20$ 20.82$ 47.01$ 34.86$ 10.60$ 8.57$

1: Base Case 15.53$ 9.93$ 27.18$ 18.43$ 3.37$ 2.53$

3: RDF=0.98 16.37$ 10.48$ 28.58$ 19.40$ 3.61$ 2.71$

4: If PRC<2500

RTOFFCAP=015.62$ 9.98$ 27.34$ 18.53$ 3.38$ 2.53$

6: X=RRS+URS

VOLL=18000129.23$ 80.92$ 218.68$ 147.12$ 35.83$ 23.23$

7: X=RRS+URS

Price Floor98.38$ 63.10$ 166.24$ 113.48$ 27.51$ 19.20$

8: X=2300

VOLL=1200031.05$ 19.66$ 54.25$ 36.58$ 6.83$ 4.90$

9: X=2750

VOLL=1800074.61$ 46.75$ 128.78$ 86.53$ 18.05$ 12.08$

10: X=1708

VOLL=1800019.70$ 12.32$ 35.14$ 23.51$ 3.59$ 2.56$



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Figure 19. Energy and Time Weighted Average RTORPA of All Hours by Month (2011)

Table 16. Energy and Time Weighted Average RTORPA of All Hours by Month (2011)

Month0: Base Case

No Response

1: Base

Case3: RDF=0.98

4: RTOFFCAP=0

PRC<2500

6: X=RRS+URS

VOLL=18000

7: X=RRS+URS

Price Floor

8: X=2300

VOLL=12000

9: X=2750

VOLL=18000

10: X=1708

VOLL=18000

1/2011 14.73$ 3.80$ 4.02$ 3.80$ 12.92$ 13.81$ 5.81$ 9.29$ 3.42$

2/2011 106.89$ 15.44$ 16.36$ 15.47$ 151.26$ 159.34$ 32.30$ 87.95$ 21.04$

3/2011 18.41$ 5.03$ 5.38$ 5.03$ 20.47$ 23.07$ 8.40$ 14.25$ 4.43$

4/2011 11.58$ 1.52$ 1.62$ 1.52$ 9.15$ 8.92$ 2.58$ 5.13$ 1.34$

5/2011 10.69$ 2.45$ 2.60$ 2.45$ 10.61$ 14.16$ 3.80$ 6.67$ 2.19$

6/2011 10.36$ 0.86$ 0.93$ 0.86$ 11.27$ 14.64$ 1.68$ 4.82$ 0.76$

7/2011 15.00$ 11.62$ 12.54$ 11.63$ 202.80$ 109.32$ 27.59$ 89.50$ 12.74$

8/2011 118.42$ 103.01$ 107.98$ 103.71$ 773.97$ 582.84$ 204.89$ 473.62$ 136.40$

9/2011 2.81$ 0.74$ 0.82$ 0.74$ 15.04$ 10.05$ 1.67$ 5.23$ 0.63$

10/2011 5.54$ 1.75$ 1.87$ 1.75$ 9.48$ 8.96$ 2.87$ 5.53$ 1.52$

11/2011 5.13$ 1.12$ 1.19$ 1.12$ 5.62$ 4.54$ 1.76$ 3.27$ 0.98$

12/2011 4.27$ 1.58$ 1.72$ 1.60$ 9.08$ 12.16$ 2.88$ 5.63$ 1.44$



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Figure 20. Time Weighted Average RTORPA of All Hours by Month (2011)

Table 17. Time Weighted Average RTORPA of All Hours by Month (2011)

Month0: Base Case

No Response

1: Base

Case3: RDF=0.98

4: RTOFFCAP=0

PRC<2500

6: X=RRS+URS

VOLL=18000

7: X=RRS+URS

Price Floor

8: X=2300

VOLL=12000

9: X=2750

VOLL=18000

10: X=1708

VOLL=18000

1/2011 15.07$ 3.90$ 4.12$ 3.90$ 13.08$ 14.46$ 5.94$ 9.45$ 3.50$

2/2011 74.94$ 11.45$ 12.14$ 11.47$ 104.95$ 111.32$ 23.41$ 61.90$ 15.13$

3/2011 16.20$ 4.74$ 5.08$ 4.74$ 20.01$ 21.60$ 8.03$ 13.85$ 4.16$

4/2011 9.40$ 1.35$ 1.44$ 1.35$ 8.78$ 8.36$ 2.36$ 4.86$ 1.18$

5/2011 10.11$ 2.27$ 2.41$ 2.27$ 10.58$ 14.97$ 3.58$ 6.50$ 2.01$

6/2011 8.11$ 0.77$ 0.84$ 0.77$ 9.56$ 11.89$ 1.50$ 4.15$ 0.68$

7/2011 11.62$ 8.98$ 9.69$ 8.98$ 157.34$ 84.91$ 21.34$ 69.25$ 9.83$

8/2011 92.35$ 80.19$ 84.07$ 80.74$ 606.41$ 455.65$ 159.69$ 369.78$ 106.11$

9/2011 2.02$ 0.55$ 0.61$ 0.55$ 10.90$ 7.69$ 1.25$ 3.88$ 0.47$

10/2011 4.55$ 1.47$ 1.58$ 1.47$ 8.64$ 8.18$ 2.49$ 4.96$ 1.27$

11/2011 4.58$ 0.99$ 1.06$ 0.99$ 5.18$ 4.18$ 1.58$ 3.00$ 0.88$

12/2011 4.17$ 1.52$ 1.65$ 1.53$ 8.66$ 11.58$ 2.74$ 5.37$ 1.38$



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Additional Peaker Net Margin

Figure 21. Sum of Estimated Additional PNM with ORDC (2011)

Table 18. Sum of Estimated Additional PNM with ORDC (2011)

OptionSum of Estimated

PNM without

ORDC

Sum of Estimated

Additional PNM

with ORDC

0: Base Case

No Reponse178,959$

1: Base Case 83,624$

3: RDF=0.98 88,157$

4: If PRC<2500

RTOFFCAP=084,067$

6: X=RRS+URS

VOLL=18000692,720$

7: X=RRS+URS

Price Floor538,781$

8: X=2300

VOLL=12000166,574$

9: X=2750

VOLL=18000399,382$

10: X=1708

VOLL=18000105,018$

130,794$



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Figure 22. Sum of Estimated Additional PNM with ORDC by Month (2011)

Table 19. Sum of Estimated Additional PNM with ORDC by Month (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015)

Month0: Base Case

No Response

1: Base

Case3: RDF=0.98

4: RTOFFCAP=0

PRC<2500

6: X=RRS+URS

VOLL=18000

7: X=RRS+URS

Price Floor

8: X=2300

VOLL=12000

9: X=2750

VOLL=18000

10: X=1708

VOLL=18000

1/2011 10,334.23$ 2,018.66$ 2,132.70$ 2,018.66$ 6,823.95$ 8,201.16$ 3,110.08$ 4,984.70$ 1,830.92$

2/2011 49,866.65$ 7,203.44$ 7,636.47$ 7,218.87$ 68,705.12$ 73,194.77$ 14,978.57$ 40,319.24$ 9,736.46$

3/2011 10,994.73$ 2,471.20$ 2,643.77$ 2,471.20$ 10,778.66$ 12,369.94$ 4,250.63$ 7,390.88$ 2,202.16$

4/2011 6,570.79$ 770.88$ 820.20$ 770.88$ 4,579.64$ 4,579.08$ 1,292.48$ 2,600.00$ 692.53$

5/2011 7,224.06$ 1,388.16$ 1,463.92$ 1,388.16$ 5,923.15$ 9,437.61$ 2,105.57$ 3,703.47$ 1,255.33$

6/2011 5,726.66$ 441.76$ 483.95$ 444.43$ 6,060.62$ 7,881.91$ 882.65$ 2,571.50$ 393.93$

7/2011 8,620.56$ 6,654.00$ 7,181.38$ 6,656.98$ 116,650.84$ 62,867.71$ 15,820.41$ 51,369.10$ 7,289.52$

8/2011 68,702.32$ 59,659.33$ 62,546.14$ 60,067.85$ 451,069.39$ 338,934.95$ 118,802.12$ 275,088.91$ 78,944.56$

9/2011 1,445.17$ 391.63$ 434.07$ 391.90$ 7,660.98$ 5,391.39$ 882.19$ 2,733.68$ 334.21$

10/2011 3,311.26$ 1,017.66$ 1,085.72$ 1,019.47$ 5,642.16$ 5,424.93$ 1,679.68$ 3,276.30$ 887.02$

11/2011 3,254.25$ 673.95$ 713.15$ 673.95$ 3,204.54$ 2,587.50$ 1,041.62$ 1,898.72$ 601.41$

12/2011 2,908.63$ 933.25$ 1,015.63$ 944.30$ 5,620.91$ 7,909.86$ 1,727.83$ 3,445.61$ 850.16$



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Real-Time On-Line Price Adder Histogram

Figure 23. Number of Hours where RTORPA > Threshold (2011)

Table 20. Number of Hours where RTORPA > Threshold (2011)

Option# of Hours

RTORPA > 100 $/MWh

# of Hours

RTORPA > 500 $/MWh

# of Hours

RTORPA > 1000 $/MWh

0: Base Case

No Reponse271.66 79.72 36.67

1: Base Case 92.73 45.19 19.61

3: RDF=0.98 95.31 47.30 21.36

4: If PRC<2500

RTOFFCAP=092.90 45.53 20.27

6: X=RRS+URS

VOLL=18000211.58 163.52 133.28

7: X=RRS+URS

Price Floor194.65 138.21 108.57

8: X=2300

VOLL=12000122.74 74.17 50.53

9: X=2750

VOLL=18000172.46 117.57 92.37

10: X=1708

VOLL=1800093.35 51.41 29.52



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Table 21. Number of Hours where RTORPA > $100/MWh by Month (2011)

Table 22. Number of Hours where RTORPA > $500/MWh by Month (2011)

Table 23. Number of Hours where RTORPA > $1,000/MWh by Month (2011)

Month0: Base Case

No Response

1: Base

Case3: RDF=0.98

4: RTOFFCAP=0

PRC<2500

6: X=RRS+URS

VOLL=18000

7: X=RRS+URS

Price Floor

8: X=2300

VOLL=12000

9: X=2750

VOLL=18000

10: X=1708

VOLL=18000

1/2011 31.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00

2/2011 32.66 10.72 11.13 10.80 24.17 22.34 15.85 21.23 11.44

3/2011 28.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.00

4/2011 13.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00

5/2011 19.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.01 0.00 0.00 0.00

6/2011 9.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.55 6.03 0.00 4.25 0.00

7/2011 21.84 15.67 16.17 15.67 53.02 46.28 24.16 40.48 15.25

8/2011 80.68 66.34 68.01 66.43 122.60 113.58 81.66 104.01 66.66

9/2011 3.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.25 3.41 1.08 2.50 0.00

10/2011 11.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00

11/2011 11.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

12/2011 6.66 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.67 0.00 0.00 0.00

Month0: Base Case

No Response

1: Base

Case3: RDF=0.98

4: RTOFFCAP=0

PRC<2500

6: X=RRS+URS

VOLL=18000

7: X=RRS+URS

Price Floor

8: X=2300

VOLL=12000

9: X=2750

VOLL=18000

10: X=1708

VOLL=18000

1/2011 3.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00

2/2011 11.07 4.79 4.91 4.79 19.42 16.65 7.97 14.84 6.09

3/2011 4.64 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.00

4/2011 4.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00

5/2011 2.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.01 0.00 0.00 0.00

6/2011 4.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.49 1.47 0.00 0.00 0.00

7/2011 4.75 3.25 4.33 3.25 37.97 27.18 11.09 23.08 4.92

8/2011 43.90 37.15 38.07 37.49 100.98 87.50 55.12 78.82 40.40

9/2011 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.66 2.41 0.00 0.83 0.00

10/2011 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00

11/2011 0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

12/2011 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.67 0.00 0.00 0.00

Month0: Base Case

No Response

1: Base

Case3: RDF=0.98

4: RTOFFCAP=0

PRC<2500

6: X=RRS+URS

VOLL=18000

7: X=RRS+URS

Price Floor

8: X=2300

VOLL=12000

9: X=2750

VOLL=18000

10: X=1708

VOLL=18000

1/2011 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00

2/2011 8.61 0.90 1.40 0.90 16.27 12.74 5.22 10.45 3.36

3/2011 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.00

4/2011 1.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00

5/2011 0.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.01 0.00 0.00 0.00

6/2011 1.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.47 0.00 0.00 0.00

7/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 27.26 18.08 5.25 15.50 0.33

8/2011 23.90 18.70 19.95 19.37 87.50 72.35 40.06 66.34 25.82

9/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.25 0.91 0.00 0.08 0.00

10/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00

11/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

12/2011 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.67 0.00 0.00 0.00



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Month0: Base Case

No Response

1: Base

Case3: RDF=0.98

4: RTOFFCAP=0

PRC<2500

6: X=RRS+URS

VOLL=18000

7: X=RRS+URS

Price Floor

8: X=2300

VOLL=12000

9: X=2750

VOLL=18000

10: X=1708

VOLL=18000

1/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00

2/2011 6.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.87 8.78 0.00 4.93 0.00

3/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00

4/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00

5/2011 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.84 0.00 0.00 0.00

6/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.75 0.00 0.00 0.00

7/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.42 4.83 0.00 5.50 0.00

8/2011 2.00 2.00 2.17 2.00 62.18 42.40 8.15 40.31 6.18

9/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00

10/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00

11/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

12/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.67 0.00 0.00 0.00

Month0: Base Case

No Response

1: Base

Case3: RDF=0.98

4: RTOFFCAP=0

PRC<2500

6: X=RRS+URS

VOLL=18000

7: X=RRS+URS

Price Floor

8: X=2300

VOLL=12000

9: X=2750

VOLL=18000

10: X=1708

VOLL=18000

1/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2/2011 5.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.56 8.05 0.00 1.17 0.00

3/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00

4/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

5/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00

6/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

7/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.75 1.83 0.00 0.08 0.00

8/2011 2.00 2.00 2.17 2.00 46.41 32.99 4.50 22.98 1.34

9/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

10/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

11/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

12/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00

Month0: Base Case

No Response

1: Base

Case3: RDF=0.98

4: RTOFFCAP=0

PRC<2500

6: X=RRS+URS

VOLL=18000

7: X=RRS+URS

Price Floor

8: X=2300

VOLL=12000

9: X=2750

VOLL=18000

10: X=1708

VOLL=18000

1/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2/2011 0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.58 2.56 0.00 0.00 0.00

3/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00

4/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

5/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00

6/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

7/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.74 0.41 0.00 0.00 0.00

8/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19.37 11.95 0.08 2.17 0.00

9/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

10/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

11/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

12/2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00



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Probability of Falling Below Minimum Contingency Level on August 3, 2011

Figure 24. Max PBMCL on August 3, 2011

Table 27. Max PBMCL on August 3, 2011

OptionMax PBMCL on

August 3, 2011

by SCED Interval

0: Base Case

No Reponse34.8%

1: Base Case 34.8%

3: RDF=0.98 35.6%

4: If PRC<2500

RTOFFCAP=034.8%

6: X=RRS+URS

VOLL=18000100.0%

7: X=RRS+URS

Price Floor100.0%

8: X=2300

VOLL=12000100.0%

9: X=2750

VOLL=18000100.0%

10: X=1708

VOLL=1800025.4%



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Section 3: Sensitivity Analysis

Offline and available resources had varying levels of startup time and startup cost. Assuming that

all those resources will be online any time prices were greater than a particular level might lead

to over commitment.

Hence, a sensitivity analysis was done to show a range of outcomes:

1. Price response any time prices were greater than $75/MWh

2. Price response when prices go above $75/MWh for 2 hours

3. Price response any time prices were greater than $250/MWh

4. Price response when prices go above $250/MWh for 2 hours

5. No price response

Two hours were estimated based on average start times, start costs, and time needed to

recover average start costs.



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Figure 25. Energy and Time Weighted RTORPA Sensitivity to Market Behavior (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015)

Table 28. Energy and Time Weighted RTORPA Sensitivity to Market Behavior (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015)

OptionPrice Response

@ $75

Price Response when

Price > $75 for 2+ Hours

Price Response

@ $250

Price Response when


No Price

Response

1: Base Case $0.66 $0.78 $0.85 $0.94 $1.053: RDF=0.98 $0.73 $0.86 $0.94 $1.04 $1.17

4: If PRC<2500

RTOFFCAP=0$0.66 $0.79 $0.86 $0.95 $1.06

6: X=RRS+URS

VOLL=18000$10.71 $13.47 $16.81 $20.50 $28.08

7: X=RRS+URS

Price Floor$6.44 $8.26 $10.20 $12.07 $14.33

8: X=2300

VOLL=12000$1.66 $2.02 $2.22 $2.43 $2.81

9: X=2750

VOLL=18000$5.72 $6.90 $8.08 $9.29 $11.37

10: X=1708

VOLL=18000$0.67 $0.77 $0.84 $0.93 $1.07



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Figure 26. Time Weighted RTORPA Sensitivity to Market Behavior (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015)

Table 29. Time Weighted RTORPA Sensitivity to Market Behavior (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015)


@ $75

Price Response when


Price Response

@ $250

Price Response when


No Price

Response

1: Base Case $0.43 $0.52 $0.58 $0.64 $0.713: RDF=0.98 $0.48 $0.58 $0.64 $0.71 $0.80

4: If PRC<2500

RTOFFCAP=0$0.43 $0.53 $0.58 $0.64 $0.72

6: X=RRS+URS

VOLL=18000$7.32 $9.82 $12.52 $15.76 $21.51

7: X=RRS+URS

Price Floor$4.52 $6.12 $7.69 $9.27 $10.91

8: X=2300

VOLL=12000$1.10 $1.39 $1.54 $1.70 $1.95

9: X=2750

VOLL=18000$3.84 $4.83 $5.77 $6.73 $8.20

10: X=1708

VOLL=18000$0.43 $0.51 $0.55 $0.62 $0.71



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Figure 27. Additional Peaker Net Margin from ORDC Sensitivity to Market Behavior (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015)

Table 30. Additional Peaker Net Margin from ORDC Sensitivity to Market Behavior (6/1/2014 – 10/31/2015)


@ $75

Price Response when


Price Response

@ $250

Price Response when


No Price

Response

1: Base Case $5,254.46 $6,457.22 $7,089.44 $7,881.62 $8,818.393: RDF=0.98 $5,830.66 $7,088.94 $7,902.24 $8,786.55 $9,810.15

4: If PRC<2500

RTOFFCAP=0$5,314.01 $6,516.77 $7,148.99 $7,941.17 $8,880.98

6: X=RRS+URS

VOLL=18000$89,522.41 $120,568.95 $154,169.90 $194,370.91 $265,834.38

7: X=RRS+URS

Price Floor$55,021.54 $74,886.36 $94,421.96 $114,050.91 $134,481.47

8: X=2300

VOLL=12000$13,517.15 $17,054.73 $18,960.95 $20,997.12 $24,072.53

9: X=2750

VOLL=18000$47,056.24 $59,453.59 $71,126.50 $83,079.55 $101,310.73

10: X=1708

VOLL=18000$5,259.91 $6,243.16 $6,828.77 $7,666.11 $8,752.54



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Figure 28. Energy and Time Weighted RTORPA Sensitivity to Market Behavior (2011)

Table 31. Energy and Time Weighted RTORPA Sensitivity to Market Behavior (2011)


@ $75

Price Response when


Price Response

@ $250

Price Response when


No Price

Response

1: Base Case $15.53 $17.06 $18.74 $20.44 $29.203: RDF=0.98 $16.37 $18.03 $19.82 $21.63 $30.73

4: If PRC<2500

RTOFFCAP=0$15.62 $17.26 $18.83 $20.67 $29.50

6: X=RRS+URS

VOLL=18000$129.23 $140.24 $152.56 $171.55 $318.40

7: X=RRS+URS

Price Floor$98.38 $105.00 $116.63 $128.59 $196.23

8: X=2300

VOLL=12000$31.05 $34.13 $37.34 $41.89 $57.84

9: X=2750

VOLL=18000$74.61 $80.34 $87.97 $99.23 $154.39

10: X=1708

VOLL=18000$19.70 $21.60 $22.73 $24.78 $34.86



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Figure 29. Time Weighted RTORPA Sensitivity to Market Behavior (2011)

Table 32. Time Weighted RTORPA Sensitivity to Market Behavior (2011)


@ $75

Price Response when


Price Response

@ $250

Price Response when


No Price

Response

1: Base Case $9.93 $11.50 $12.91 $14.55 $20.823: RDF=0.98 $10.48 $12.19 $13.70 $15.47 $21.98

4: If PRC<2500

RTOFFCAP=0$9.98 $11.69 $12.96 $14.75 $21.09

6: X=RRS+URS

VOLL=18000$80.92 $92.20 $103.98 $123.48 $256.98

7: X=RRS+URS

Price Floor$63.10 $69.89 $81.08 $93.46 $151.79

8: X=2300

VOLL=12000$19.66 $22.90 $25.68 $30.24 $42.13

9: X=2750

VOLL=18000$46.75 $52.75 $59.89 $71.55 $118.12

10: X=1708

VOLL=18000$12.32 $14.27 $15.12 $17.12 $24.30



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Figure 30. Additional Peaker Net Margin from ORDC Sensitivity to Market Behavior (2011)

Table 33. Additional Peaker Net Margin from ORDC Sensitivity to Market Behavior (2011)


@ $75

Price Response when


Price Response

@ $250

Price Response when


No Price

Response

1: Base Case $83,623.92 $97,350.80 $109,674.28 $124,043.89 $178,959.313: RDF=0.98 $88,157.10 $103,104.27 $116,363.82 $131,866.99 $188,855.42

4: If PRC<2500

RTOFFCAP=0$84,066.63 $99,010.41 $110,134.02 $125,865.82 $181,385.05

6: X=RRS+URS

VOLL=18000$692,719.97 $791,496.48 $894,689.13 $1,065,525.65 $2,234,961.82

7: X=RRS+URS

Price Floor$538,780.82 $598,214.40 $696,304.42 $804,706.81 $1,315,720.45

8: X=2300

VOLL=12000$166,573.81 $195,036.08 $219,345.77 $259,280.09 $363,466.42

9: X=2750

VOLL=18000$399,382.10 $451,969.63 $514,522.44 $616,612.57 $1,024,588.17

10: X=1708

VOLL=18000$105,018.20 $122,115.42 $129,587.81 $147,093.73 $209,985.04



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Section 4: Add Demand Curves to DAM – Snapshot from August 13, 2015

Online ORDC Curve as an Example (Option 2)

Figure 31. August 13, 2015 HE17 Online ORDC Curve (VOLL * LOLPs) Overlaid with AS Requirements



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Table 34. Penalty Price of AS Demand Curve for last MW of AS Requirement in DAM using August 13, 2015 HE17 Online ORDC Curve as an Example

Example for options 0,1,3,4

Last MW of URS = 345 MW where price would be $9,000/MWh on the curve

Last MW of RRS = 345 + 2300 = 2645 MW where price would be $2,319/MWh on the curve

Last MW of NSRS = 345 + 2300 + 2000 = 4645 MW where price would be $13/MWh on the

curve

Total AS

(Last MW)

Options 0,1,3,4

X=2000

VOLL=9000

Option 6

X=RRS+URS

VOLL=18000

Option 7

X=RRS+URS

VOLL=9000

Option 8

X=2300

VOLL=12000

Option 9

X=2750

VOLL=18000

Option 10

X=1708

VOLL=18000

345 $9,000 $9,000 $9,000 $9,000 $9,000 $9,000

RRS 2645 $2,318 N/A N/A $4,577 N/A $2,898

NSRS 4645 $13 N/A N/A $51 N/A $8

RRS 3095 N/A $9,000 $4,857 N/A $6,866 N/A

NSRS 5095 N/A $234 $117 N/A $77 N/A

Penalty Price of AS Demand Curve for last MW of AS requirement

in DAM using August 13, 2015 HE17 Online ORDC Curve as an example

Ancillary Service

Type

URS

RRS=2300

RRS=2750



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Section 5: X = URS + RRS – A look at the 2016 AS Methodology Values

(Options 6 & 7)

Without RRS Floor

Figure 32. Heat map of URS + RRS without RRS floor from 2016 AS Methodology



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URS+RRS without 2750 MW RRS Floor 2016

HE Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1 3088 3273 3282 3380 3361 3079 3008 3067 3056 3183 3272 3268

2 3030 3245 3239 3277 3261 3031 2972 2954 2940 3018 3208 3204

3 3008 3252 3234 3228 3250 2941 2932 2952 2921 3020 3198 3199

4 3042 3253 3241 3247 3253 2898 2907 2909 2903 3004 3211 3211

5 3149 3326 3297 3319 3267 2939 2947 2927 2938 3059 3277 3281

6 3332 3524 3474 3452 3433 3092 3053 3047 3118 3221 3494 3500

7 3343 3501 3382 3429 3404 3242 2931 2990 3322 3282 3443 3242

8 3062 3157 3216 3117 3150 3108 2882 2846 2997 3038 3088 3002

9 3034 3111 3159 3203 3188 3173 2974 2954 3162 3054 3124 2977

10 3022 3115 3102 3091 3135 3158 2970 2964 3131 3078 3073 2998

11 3018 3137 3079 3010 3061 3038 3072 2823 2945 3036 3093 2986

12 2974 3104 3096 2986 3032 2942 3027 2799 2950 3074 3053 2955

13 2941 3089 3083 2992 2988 2901 2940 2717 2896 3071 3039 2996

14 2949 3066 3095 2990 2994 2843 2884 2676 2823 3029 3058 2977

15 3043 3061 3056 2954 2997 2804 2596 2589 2833 2991 3036 2943

16 3011 3046 3047 2950 2974 2807 2580 2580 2805 2938 3022 2944

17 3066 3062 3049 2955 2975 2780 2587 2570 2815 2994 3086 2953

18 3323 3168 3079 2997 2977 2781 2594 2590 2776 2983 3240 3162

19 3080 3271 3172 3077 2987 2738 2843 2864 2754 3012 3010 2922

20 2949 3018 3223 3153 3051 2757 2890 2894 2795 2991 3019 2892

21 2953 3057 3086 3203 3051 2742 2846 2818 2730 2896 3025 2910

22 2972 3108 3070 3147 3021 2840 2926 2898 2847 2979 3125 2946

23 3128 3334 3351 3407 3479 3163 3108 3072 3118 3163 3284 3376

24 3058 3282 3329 3384 3446 3121 3072 3053 3086 3195 3274 3330

Table 35. URS + RRS without RRS floor from 2016 AS Methodology



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With RRS Floor of 2,750 MW

Figure 33. Heat map of URS + RRS with RRS floored at 2750 MW from 2016 AS Methodology



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URS+RRS with 2750 MW RRS Floor 2016


1 3088 3273 3282 3380 3361 3133 3056 3115 3110 3183 3272 3268

2 3030 3245 3239 3277 3261 3085 3020 3002 2994 3018 3208 3204

3 3008 3252 3234 3228 3250 2995 2980 3000 2975 3020 3198 3199

4 3042 3253 3241 3247 3253 2952 2955 2957 2957 3004 3211 3211

5 3149 3326 3297 3319 3267 2993 2995 2975 2992 3059 3277 3281

6 3332 3524 3474 3452 3433 3146 3101 3095 3172 3221 3494 3500

7 3343 3501 3382 3429 3404 3290 3202 3261 3370 3336 3443 3296

8 3062 3157 3216 3117 3150 3156 3153 3117 3045 3092 3088 3056

9 3034 3111 3159 3203 3188 3221 3245 3225 3210 3108 3124 3031

10 3022 3115 3102 3091 3135 3206 3241 3235 3179 3132 3073 3052

11 3018 3137 3079 3064 3115 3250 3284 3273 3216 3084 3093 3040

12 2974 3104 3096 3040 3086 3154 3239 3249 3221 3122 3053 3009

13 2941 3089 3083 3046 3042 3113 3152 3167 3167 3119 3039 3050

14 2949 3066 3095 3044 3048 3055 3096 3126 3094 3077 3058 3031

15 3043 3061 3056 3008 3045 3016 3046 3039 3045 3039 3036 2997

16 3011 3046 3047 3004 3022 3019 3030 3030 3017 2986 3022 2998

17 3066 3062 3049 3009 3023 2992 3037 3020 3027 3042 3086 3007

18 3323 3168 3079 3051 3025 2993 3044 3040 2988 3031 3240 3216

19 3080 3271 3172 3077 3041 3009 3055 3076 3025 3066 3010 2976

20 2949 3018 3223 3153 3105 3028 3102 3106 3066 3045 3019 2946

21 2953 3057 3086 3203 3105 3013 3058 3030 3001 2950 3025 2964

22 2972 3108 3070 3147 3075 3111 3138 3110 3118 3033 3125 3000

23 3128 3334 3351 3407 3479 3217 3156 3120 3172 3163 3284 3376

24 3058 3282 3329 3384 3446 3175 3120 3101 3140 3195 3274 3330

Table 36. URS + RRS with RRS floored at 2750 MW from 2016 AS Methodology



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URS Requirements 2016


1 280 273 282 380 361 383 306 365 360 375 272 268

2 222 245 239 277 261 335 270 252 244 210 208 204

3 200 252 234 228 250 245 230 250 225 212 198 199

4 234 253 241 247 253 202 205 207 207 196 211 211

5 341 326 297 319 267 243 245 225 242 251 277 281

6 524 524 474 452 433 396 351 345 422 413 494 500

7 647 693 574 621 596 540 452 511 620 586 635 546

8 366 349 408 309 342 406 403 367 295 342 280 306

9 338 303 351 395 380 471 495 475 460 358 316 281

10 326 307 294 283 327 456 491 485 429 382 265 302

11 322 329 271 314 365 500 534 523 466 334 285 290

12 278 296 288 290 336 404 489 499 471 372 245 259

13 245 281 275 296 292 363 402 417 417 369 231 300

14 253 258 287 294 298 305 346 376 344 327 250 281

15 235 253 248 258 295 266 296 289 295 289 228 247

16 203 238 239 254 272 269 280 280 267 236 214 248

17 258 254 241 259 273 242 287 270 277 292 278 257

18 515 360 271 301 275 243 294 290 238 281 432 466

19 384 463 364 269 291 259 305 326 275 316 202 226

20 253 210 415 345 355 278 352 356 316 295 211 196

21 257 249 278 395 355 263 308 280 251 200 217 214

22 276 300 262 339 325 361 388 360 368 283 317 250

23 320 334 351 407 479 467 406 370 422 355 284 376

24 250 282 329 384 446 425 370 351 390 387 274 330

RRS Requirements 2016


1 2808 3000 3000 3000 3000 2696 2702 2702 2696 2808 3000 3000

2 2808 3000 3000 3000 3000 2696 2702 2702 2696 2808 3000 3000

3 2808 3000 3000 3000 3000 2696 2702 2702 2696 2808 3000 3000

4 2808 3000 3000 3000 3000 2696 2702 2702 2696 2808 3000 3000

5 2808 3000 3000 3000 3000 2696 2702 2702 2696 2808 3000 3000

6 2808 3000 3000 3000 3000 2696 2702 2702 2696 2808 3000 3000

7 2696 2808 2808 2808 2808 2702 2479 2479 2702 2696 2808 2696

8 2696 2808 2808 2808 2808 2702 2479 2479 2702 2696 2808 2696

9 2696 2808 2808 2808 2808 2702 2479 2479 2702 2696 2808 2696

10 2696 2808 2808 2808 2808 2702 2479 2479 2702 2696 2808 2696

11 2696 2808 2808 2696 2696 2538 2538 2300 2479 2702 2808 2696

12 2696 2808 2808 2696 2696 2538 2538 2300 2479 2702 2808 2696

13 2696 2808 2808 2696 2696 2538 2538 2300 2479 2702 2808 2696

14 2696 2808 2808 2696 2696 2538 2538 2300 2479 2702 2808 2696

15 2808 2808 2808 2696 2702 2538 2300 2300 2538 2702 2808 2696

16 2808 2808 2808 2696 2702 2538 2300 2300 2538 2702 2808 2696

17 2808 2808 2808 2696 2702 2538 2300 2300 2538 2702 2808 2696

18 2808 2808 2808 2696 2702 2538 2300 2300 2538 2702 2808 2696

19 2696 2808 2808 2808 2696 2479 2538 2538 2479 2696 2808 2696

20 2696 2808 2808 2808 2696 2479 2538 2538 2479 2696 2808 2696

21 2696 2808 2808 2808 2696 2479 2538 2538 2479 2696 2808 2696

22 2696 2808 2808 2808 2696 2479 2538 2538 2479 2696 2808 2696

23 2808 3000 3000 3000 3000 2696 2702 2702 2696 2808 3000 3000

24 2808 3000 3000 3000 3000 2696 2702 2702 2696 2808 3000 3000

Table 37. Individual URS and RRS tables from 2016 AS Methodology Requirements

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