ercot public 4/22/2014 1 2014 rtp inputs and assumptions april 22, 2014

ERCOT PUBLIC4/22/2014 1

2014 RTP Inputs and Assumptions

April 22, 2014


Outline

Initial 2014 RTP case overview

Generation summary

Weather year selection for wind and load

in economic analysis

Hydro dispatch in economic analysis

Updates to the RTP scope

Next steps


Initial 2014 RTP case overview

The initial 2014 RTP summer peak cases for years

2015, 2017, 2019 and 2020 were created per the

RTP scope

“Higher-of” load was used in the summer peak case

Generation was added and retired per the planning

guide and RTP scope


NCP Load-Generation Balance Summary

YearLoad* +

Loss Generation** Margin Imbalance2020 89383 80503 1375 10255

2019 88043 80302 1375 9116

2017 85069 81382 1375 5062

2015 82028 80285 1375 3118

*Load on this table is the NCP load using higher-of the SSWG or 90th percentile forecast**This includes generation available as per planning guide section 6.9, with wind and solar dispatched as per the RTP scope with no adjustments to address the imbalance


Generator addition/retirement summarySite Name County COD Fuel

MW For Grid

Sufficient Financial Security Received

2015 2017 2019 2020

Panda Temple Power Bell Aug-14 GAS 717 Yes Yes Yes Yes YesJ.T. Deely 1 & 2 Bexar N/A COAL 845 N/A (Retired in 2018) Yes Yes No NoStephens Ranch Wind Energy Phase 1

Borden Oct-14 WIND 201 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Mesquite Creek Borden Jan-15 WIND 249 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Longhorn Energy Center Briscoe Dec-14 WIND 361 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Cameron County Wind Cameron Jun-15 WIND 165 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Panhandle Wind Carson Jul-14 WIND 218 Yes Yes Yes Yes YesConway Windfarm Carson Dec-14 WIND 600 Yes Yes Yes Yes YesHereford Wind Castro Sep-14 WIND 200 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Wake Wind EnergyFloyd and Crosby

Apr-15 WIND 299 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

CPV Rattlesnake Den Ph 1

Glasscock May-15 WIND 201 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Miami Wind 1 Project Gray Jul-14 WIND 289 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Panda Sherman Power Grayson Aug-14 GAS 720 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Deer Park Energy Center Harris Jul-14 GAS 190 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Rentech Project Harris Aug-14 GAS 15 Yes Yes Yes Yes YesKeechi Wind 138 kV Joplin

Jack Dec-14 WIND 102 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Sendero Wind Energy Project

Jim Hogg Feb-15 WIND 78 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Baffin (Penascal Wind Farm 3)

Kenedy Dec-14 WIND 202 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

OCI Alamo 4 Kinney Aug-14 SOLAR 38 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes


Generator addition/retirement summary

Site Name County COD Fuel MW For GridSufficient Financial Security Received

2015 2017 2019 2020

Green Pastures Knox Feb-15 WIND 300 Yes Yes Yes Yes YesFerguson Replacement Project

Llano Jul-14 GAS 570 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Goldthwaite Wind Energy

Mills Apr-14 WIND 149 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Spinning Spur Wind Two

Oldham Jun-14 WIND 161 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Spinning Spur Wind Three

Oldham Dec-14 WIND 194 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Barilla Solar Pecos Nov-14 SOLAR 30 Yes Yes Yes Yes YesRoute66 Wind Randall Dec-14 WIND 150 Yes Yes Yes Yes YesLos Vientos III Starr Dec-14 WIND 200 Yes Yes Yes Yes YesPanda Temple Power II

Bell Aug-15 GAS 717 Yes No Yes Yes Yes

Briscoe Wind Farm Briscoe Dec-15 WIND 300 Yes No Yes Yes YesPanhandle Wind 2 (Phase 2)

Carson Nov-15 WIND 182 Yes No Yes Yes Yes

Antelope Station* Hale Jun-16 GAS 359 Yes No No No NoPatriot (Petronilla) Wind

Nueces Aug-15 WIND 178 Yes No Yes Yes Yes

Midway Farms Wind San Patricio Oct-15 WIND 161 Yes No Yes Yes Yes

*359 MWs of antelope station has financial commitment, but ERCOT is working to understand the configuration and availability for ERCOT reliability cases.


Generators not added to the cases

Site Name County COD Fuel MW For GridSufficient Financial Security Received

Windthorst 2 Archer Dec-14 WIND 65 No

Stephens Ranch Wind Energy Phase b Borden Apr-15 WIND 177 No

Freeport LNG PreTreatment Facility Brazoria Jun-17 GAS 11 NoJumbo Road Wind Castro Apr-15 WIND 300 NoSouth Clay Windfarm Clay Dec-14 WIND 200 NoLogans Gap Wind I Comanche May-15 WIND 200 NoMoore Wind 1 Crosby Aug-14 WIND 149 NoGoldsmith Peaking Facility Ector Jun-15 GAS 408 NoTexas Clean Energy Project Ector Jun-18 COAL 240 NoSouth Plains Wind I Floyd Jul-15 WIND 200 NoSouth Plains II Floyd Dec-15 WIND 300 NoPHR Peakers Galveston Apr-15 GAS 390 NoCPV Rattlesnake Den Ph 2 Glasscock May-16 WIND 150 NoMiami Wind 1 Project Gray Aug-15 WIND 111 NoPampa Wind Project Gray Mar-17 WIND 500 NoAntelope Station CT1 Hale Jul-16 GAS 197 NoAntelope Station CT2 Hale Jul-16 GAS 197 NoFriendswood Energy Generation Harris Sep-15 GAS 316 NoPondera King Power Project Harris Jun-17 GAS 1629 NoGunsight Mountain Howard Aug-15 WIND 120 NoCobisa-Greenville Hunt Dec-16 GAS 1792 NoForney Power Plant Upgrade Kaufman Aug-14 GAS 34 NoWhite Camp Solar Kent Oct-14 SOLAR 100 NoFGE Texas 1 Mitchell Jun-16 GAS 799 NoMariah Wind Parmer Oct-14 WIND 232 NoMariah Wind Parmer Dec-15 WIND 200 NoMariah Wind Parmer Dec-16 WIND 168 NoComanche Run Wind Swisher Dec-16 WIND 500 NoMustang Solar Project Travis Dec-15 SOLAR 30 No


Study regions in 2014 RTP

2014 RTP cases will have four study areas

North and North Central

Coast and East

South and South Central

West and Far West

Each study region will have its load at the “higher-

of” SSWG or ERCOT 90th percentile load levels


Study regions in 2014 RTPYear 2015 RTP load (80512 MW) 2017 RTP load (83171 MW)

Study regions N, NC W, FW S, SC E, C N, NC W, FW S, SC E, C

Wind output outside of study region (MW)+ 464 810 889 1335 1137 871 889 1370

Mothball generation on (MW)

528 88 603 590 528 88 603 590

Outside scaling %* 95% 97% 97% 96 % 92% 94% 93% 92%

Study region load (MW) 27084 5350 19636 28081 27876 5763 20714 28818

Year 2019 RTP load (85963 MW) 2020 RTP load (87219 MW)

Study regions N, NC W, F W S, SC E, C N, NC W, FW S, SC E, C

Wind output outside of study region (MW)+ 1137 871 867 1370 1137 871 889 1370

Mothball generation on (MW)

528 88 603 590 528 88 603 590

Outside scaling %* 85% 89% 87% 86% 84% 88% 85% 84%

Study region load (MW) 28577 6074 21815 29498 28919 6187 22323 29790

+ Wind output outside study region increased up to the 25 th percentile output* Outside load will be scaled from the “higher-of” load levels


Load and wind profile analysis

Economic analysis uses 8760 profile for load (by weather zone) and wind (by plant site)

Normalized load and wind patterns tend to smooth out peaks and valleys experienced in real-time conditions and don’t necessarily correlate well to each other

ERCOT plans to use a representative “weather year” for load and wind profiles in the economic analysis based on an analysis of historical weather year data


Weather year selection for economic analysis

ERCOT 50th percentile forecast is derived from twelve years worth of historic weather and load data

ERCOT planning obtained twelve load forecasts for 2017 (sample year) using weather data from 2002-2013 as the only variable

Load forecast for 2008 weather year was ignored because of the impacts of hurricane Gustav

Annual energy and peak load levels for each of the twelve sample forecasts were compared to the official forecast


Annual energy comparison


Annual peak comparison


Weather year selection for economic analysis

Based on the correlation analysis the 2006 weather

year is the most correlated to the 2014 official 50th

percentile forecast with respect to both the peak and

monthly energy

AWS Truepower wind profiles from 2006 will be used

in 2014 economic analysis


Hydro dispatch in economic analysis

Hydro dispatch from 2003 through 2013 was analyzed

Data shows that most hydro units have some output, even in

2011

ERCOT plans to use a 8760 profile for each hydro unit

The 8760 profile will be created based on historical dispatch

for the representative weather year

ERCOTs representative weather year analysis identified

2006 to be the representative year


Updates to RTP scope

Solar plant dispatch in reliability analysis has been changed to 70% from a previous 50%. This was done based on a percentile/confidence analysis using Solar curves data (similar to what was done for wind)

The horse hollow plant will still be connected to Kendall and not to West Texas.


Next steps

ercot public 4/22/2014 1 2014 rtp inputs and assumptions april 22, 2014

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