establishing cause and effect from data
DESCRIPTION
Establishing Cause and Effect from Data. Jason McFall, Causata. Use temporal information. Causes precede effects. Granger causality. Does wage inflation lead to price inflation, or vice versa?. U. W. P. X. Store all the detail, in time order. Website Session. Call Center Question. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Establishing Cause and Effect from DataJason McFall, Causata
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Use temporal informationCauses precede effects
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Granger causality
W XP
U
Does wage inflation lead to price inflation, or vice versa?
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WebsiteSession
WebsiteSession
WebsiteSession
Call CenterQuestion
Loyalty CardPromo Email
Loyalty CardSign Up
Major Product Purchase in Store
Store all the detail, in time order
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filter customer journeystime
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filter customer journeysalignrelative timetime
before after
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Build models
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XPXW
ImG
IR
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BP
Bayesian networksAnalysing observational data is hard
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ExperimentPut the science into data science
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INTERVENTION
CONTROL
Split population randomly into two groups
Measure outcomes for both groups
Randomised Controlled Trials
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Renewal rate
vsRENEW
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Randomise
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Concurrent control
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badscience.net
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Bandit algorithmsIncluding random exploration
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confi
denti
al
response rate
Regulated exploration/exploitation
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Lorem Ipsum
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Click on ad Acquire new customer
Retain Customer
Measure the right thing!
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Credit: Flickr winnifredxoxo
Beware of bias
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Beware of bias
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Confirmation bias
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Analysing observational data is HARD. It’s often much easier to do experiments!
Randomise
Use concurrent controls
Be alert to bias
Summary
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Thankyou