establishing the baseline to ensure ... - … mill ha. ... method to estimate change against the...

ESTABLISHING THE BASELINE TO ENSURE

ENVIRONMENTAL PERFORMANCE –

THE INDONESIA APPROACH

Ministry of Forestry of the Republic of Indonesia

INDONESIA

- Archipelago + 17000 islands, 7 big islands

- Total area 190 millions ha, 33 provinces

- Forest lands 120.35 million ha:

. Conservation 20.5 mill ha

. Protection 33.5 mill ha

. Production 58.3 mill ha

. Convertible 8.0 mill ha


PETA KAWASAN HUTAN INDONESIA

KETERANGAN :

Hutan Lindung (HL)

Kawasan Suaka Alam/Kawasan Pelestarian Alam (KSA/KPA)

Hutan Produksi Tetap (HP)

Hutan Produksi Terbatas (HPT)

Hutan Produksi yang dapat dikonversi (HPK)

Areal Penggunaan Lain (APL)

Perairan (sungai dan danau)

KETERANGAN :

HL

KSA/KPA

HP

HPT

HPK

APL

Perairan

MAP OF FOREST LAND USE PLAN (BY FUNCTION)

Java

SumateraKalimantan

Sulawesi

Papua

Trend of forest condition

Forest

cover

Time

Papua

Kalimantan

Sumatra

Forest/plantations/

agric. mosaics

Undisturbed

forests

Forest/agric.

mosaics

Forest

frontiers

Java?

Papua

Kalimantan

SumatraJava

REDD

AR/REDD

I. INTRODUCTION


Baseline Reduced

Deforestation

Monitoring Carbon

markets ($)

Payment

distribution

mechanism

How much

forest will be

lost in the

future?

What can be

done to reduce

deforestation?

What would it

take to

implement it?

How much

would it cost?

Where to start

from?

How can we

prove that

reduced

deforestation

as really taken

place?

Who is entitled

to sell forestry

carbon?

Who are the

buyers?

How is the

price formed?

How should

carbon

transactions be

regulated?

How will

carbon

payments be

distributed to

provide

incentives to

reduce

deforestation?

Who has a

legal

entitlement to

receive

payments?

I. INTRODUCTION


Elements of REDD need to be developed in Indonesia

A BASELINE:

• A projection of emissions from

deforestation and forest degradation

• A reference for measuring

reductions in emissions from

deforestation and forest degradation

II. BASELINE CONCEPTS


How is a Baseline Set?

1. Historical approach

– a straight projection of the past

•Which years and how far back?

– an average of the past

•Which years and how far back?

2. Modeling approach (Business as usual)

- it is modeled on planned land use

..Spatial model

..Non spatial model

- Which model, how far to the future?



How a Baseline Works

100

150

200

250

300

350

Year 2004 2009 2014 2019

Year

Millio

n t

on

CO

2

Baseline 1

Baseline 2

REDD intervention

Potential carbon credits ($)



SCALE OF BASELINE:

• Local - individual project/sub national» Leakage ?

• National - whole country» Leakage ?

• Global - several countries in the system» Leakage ?



Approach for activity data:

change in areas

Tiers for emission factors:

change in C stocks

1. Non-spatial country statistics

(e.g. FAO )—generally gives

net change in forest area

1. IPCC default values at a

continental scale

2. Based on maps, surveys, and

other national statistical data

2. Country specific data for

key factors

3. Spatially specific data from

interpretation of remote

sensing data

3.National inventory of key

carbon stocks, repeated

measurements or

modeling

Approaches and Tiers (IPCC GPG 2006)



Method to estimate change against the baseline

• Table 5: Sectoral Report for LULUCF (1 Table)

• Tables 5.A - 5.F: Sectoral Background Data for LULUCF for each of the land use categories (6 Tables):

– 5.A: Forest Land

– 5.B: Cropland

– 5.C: Grassland

– 5.D: Wetlands

– 5.E: Settlements

– 5.F: Other Land

• Tables 5 (I) - (V): Sectoral Background Data for LULUCF for emission sources from land use categories (5 Tables):– Table 5(I): Direct N20 emissions from N fertilization

– Table 5(II): N2O emissions from drainage of soils

– Table 5(III): N20 emissions from disturbance associated with land-use conversion to cropland

– Table 5(IV): Carbon emissions from agricultural lime application

– Table 5 (V): Biomass burning



The 12 common reporting format (CRF) Tables

IMPLEMENTATION

Historical approach

Scale:

- Set at national

- Implement at sub national

Data availability (Approach 3, Tier 2)

- Remotely sensed data

- Ground plots: TSP/PSP

- Digital thematic forest maps

III. IMPLEMENTATION



DATA AVAILABILITY

A. MEDIUM SPATIAL RESOLUTION IMAGES

Satellite data (3-year monitoring):

. 1997 Landsat MSS, Landsat 5

. 2000 Landsat TM 7

. 2003 Landsat ETM 7

. 2006 Landsat ETM 7, SPOT 4

Outputs:

. Landcover maps – forest, non-forest (1997)

. Landcover maps – 23 classes (2000-2006)

III. IMPLEMENTATION


INDONESIA FOREST COVERS

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Conserv Protec Product

Forest

Non forest

No data

AR

EA

(x 0

00 H

a)

Year 2000

Year 2003

Year 2006

FOREST COVER CHANGE

BASED ON LANDSAT

IMAGES

III. IMPLEMENTATION

1,8

2,83

1,08

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

1982-1990 1990-1997 1997-2000 2000-2006YEAR

Def.

rate

(m

ill.

ha/y

ear)


Rate of deforestation/forest degradation

• Annual monitoring

• Fill gaps of Landsat 3-year monitoring

• Cover class: forest, non forest

• Map scale 1:500.000

>> In-cooperation with SDSU, WB, WRI (2006)

B. LOW SPATIAL RESOLUTION IMAGES >250 M (MODIS)


III. IMPLEMENTATION

Vegetation Continuous Field of percent tree cover for Indonesia for the year 2000.


III. IMPLEMENTATION

C. SAMPLE PLOTS ON THE GROUND (NFI 1987)

PSP/TSP: 2735 PLOTS

Distributed across the country 20 KM X 20 KM

Re-enumerate 3 – 5 years

Data recorded: species, diameter, height, dead trees,

regeneration, soil types


III. IMPLEMENTATION

DISTRIBUTION OF 2.735 CLUSTER PLOTS ACROSS INDONESIA


• To estimate stand volume using multi spatial imageries

• Multi-stage sampling:- Medium resolution images (Landsat TM)- High resolution images (SPOT 5)- Field surveys

• Production Forest- 2006 – Kalimantan- 2007 – Sumatera, Sulawesi- 2008 – Papua, Maluku, Nusteng

D. STAND VOLUME ESTIMATION


III. IMPLEMENTATION

How is the baseline set

using available data?

• Maps of forest cover from Landsat images

– 23 land cover classes

• Maps of PSP/TSP

– 2735 plots

• Maps of rainfall

– Wet, moist, dry


III. IMPLEMENTATION

Land cover 23 classes

PSP/TSP Rainfall

CALCULATE

BIOMASS &

CARBON

Biomass & carbon stock

Land cover 6 classes

Reclassify

Union



IV. Follow up Development

- Capacity building

. Transfer of technology

. Pilot/demonstration activities

. Development of technical guidance

- Data base management:

. Data/images requirement/availability

-Definition:

. forest, deforestation, degradation


V. SUMMARY

• In Indonesia, forest lands occupy more than 60% of the country

land territory. Based on forest land use plans, Indonesia Forests

consist of conservation forest, protection forest, and production

forest.

• Forest cover monitoring in Indonesia indicated that deforestation

and forest degradation have significantly decreased in the last

decade.

• As encouraged on the decision of COP-13, the IPCC GPG 2006 is

used as the reference to set baselines and to measure emission

changes. Common reporting format of GPG 2006 included

components of environmental performance in the tables.

• Data from several sources (remotely sensed data, on the ground

sample plots, and digital forest thematic maps) are available in

the Ministry of Forestry of Indonesia. These data met the

approach 3 of activity data, and tier 2 of emission factors of the

GPG 2006.


V. SUMMARY

• Setting the baseline with the available data has been carried out

under the standard procedure of the GPG 2006, and results are in

progress.

• The baseline exercises indicated that the procedures are

complex, and detailed data are needed.

establishing the baseline to ensure ... - … mill ha. ... method to estimate change against the...

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