Estimates of Immigrant Civic Potential

Prepared for

Carnegie Corporation of New York

Rob Paral and AssociatesResearch and evaluation for family and community development

Rob Paral and AssociatesResearch and evaluation for family and community development June 2008

Executive Summary

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This report estimates the size and scope of three key groups of immigrants and their children:

• Adult legal immigrants eligible to naturalize, • Adult naturalized immigrants, including those who are not registered to vote, and • U.S. citizen children of immigrants who will be of voting age by 2012.

At the end of this report we sum these three populations to an “immigrant inclusive” number that illustrates the magnitude of these communities.

Some of the key findings include:

Adult Legal Immigrants Eligible to Naturalize

There are 8.3 million legal immigrants eligible to naturalize. These immigrants represent a wide variety of countries of origin. More than 80 percent are located in ten states.

Adult Naturalized Immigrants in Need of Voter Registration

There are 14.9 million naturalized adults in the U.S. Many of these persons – 5.8 million or 39 percent – are not registered to vote.

U.S. Citizen Children of Immigrants Who Will Be of Voting Age by 2012

Almost one in six or 16 percent of children aged 12-17 years are U.S. citizens who have an immigrant parent. In California the corresponding number is 41 percent.

71 percent of Asian and 48 percent of Latino children nationally are U.S. citizens who have an immigrant parent.

Sum Total of These Populations

The sum of these populations could represent one of ten adult citizens in the year 2012. These groups could represent 30 percent of adult citizens in California, 23 percent in New York, and 20 percent in New Jersey.

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Legal Immigrants Eligible to Naturalize

There are 8.3 Million Legal Immigrants Eligible to Naturalize in the United States

By Selected States: 2006Legal Permanent

Residents Eligible to Naturalize

Percent of Total

United States 8,250,000 100.0% Arizona 150,000 1.8% California 2,490,000 30.2% Florida 680,000 8.2% Georgia 110,000 1.3% Illinois 370,000 4.5% Massachusetts 190,000 2.3% New Jersey 350,000 4.2% New York 1,030,000 12.5% Texas 840,000 10.2% Washington 170,000 2.1% Rest of U.S. 1,870,000 22.7%Source: US Dept. of Homeland Security

By Countries of Origin: 2006Legal Permanent Residents Eligible

to NaturalizePercent of

Total

United States 8,250,000 100.0% Mexico 2,650,000 32.1% Philippines 310,000 3.8% Dominican Republic 310,000 3.8% Canada 260,000 3.2% Cuba 230,000 2.8% Vietnam 220,000 2.7% El Salvador 220,000 2.7% China 210,000 2.5% India 200,000 2.4% Korea 180,000 2.2% Other 3,460,000 41.9%Source: US Dept. of Homeland Security

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• The largest single group of immigrants eligible to naturalize is from Mexico. However, nine other countries of origin have at least 180,000 persons who could naturalize.

• More than 80 percent of immigrants eligible to naturalize are found in ten states

• California is home to 30 percent of immigrants eligible to naturalize, followed by New York (13 percent) and Texas (10 percent)

The Leading Groups Eligible to Naturalize Vary by State

Red ink highlights groups that are at least

10% of a state’s legal immigrant population

Country-of-Origin Percentage of State Legal Immigrant PopulationsAll

Countries Mexico China Philippines VietnamEl

Salvador CubaDominican Republic

United States 8,250,000 100% 32% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 4% Arizona 150,000 100% 67% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% California 2,490,000 100% 49% 3% 7% 4% 4% 0% 0% Florida 680,000 100% 9% 0% 1% 1% 1% 22% 3% Georgia 110,000 100% 35% 2% 1% 4% 2% 1% 1% Illinois 370,000 100% 45% 2% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% Massachusetts 190,000 100% 1% 5% 1% 4% 3% 0% 12% New Jersey 350,000 100% 8% 2% 5% 1% 2% 2% 12% New York 1,030,000 100% 6% 5% 2% 1% 2% 1% 18% Texas 840,000 100% 63% 1% 2% 3% 4% 0% 0% Washington 170,000 100% 29% 3% 6% 6% 1% 0% 0%Includes groups with >200,000 persons nationally, excepting Canada

Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security; authors' estimates

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• Mexico is the leading country of origin of immigrants eligible to naturalize in many but not all states.

• Cuba is the leading country of origin in Florida, while the Dominican Republic is the leading country in Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York.

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Adult Naturalized Immigrants,

Including Those Not Registered to Vote

Large Numbers of Naturalized Adults Are Not Registered to Vote

Percent of Naturalized Adults Who Are Not Registered to Vote by Selected States

Naturalized Adults

Number Not Registered

Percent Not Registered

United States 14,850,532 5,805,299 39.1% Arizona 253,241 75,544 29.8% California 4,112,144 1,724,870 41.9% Florida 1,467,132 459,160 31.3% Georgia 244,230 136,380 55.8% Illinois 732,241 320,274 43.7% Massachusetts 400,223 134,748 33.7% New Jersey 812,007 249,097 30.7% New York 2,032,641 799,327 39.3% Texas 1,081,800 459,191 42.4% Washington 318,008 118,927 37.4% Rest of U.S. 3,396,867 1,327,782 39.1%Note: Population data are 2006; Registration rates are 2004

Source: 2005/2006 American Community Survey; 2004 Current Population Survey

• Almost 40 percent of adult naturalized immigrants were not registered in 2004.

• By contrast only 28 percent of the overall U.S. population was not registered.

• Naturalized immigrants in need of voter registration ranges from 30 percent in Arizona to 56 percent in Georgia.

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Percent of Naturalized Adults Not Registered to Vote

56%44%

34%39%30%

42%

31% 31%39%

42%37%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%

Percent of Naturalized Adults Who Are Not Registered to Vote by Race/Ethnicity

Naturalized Adults

Not Registered to Vote

Percent Not Registered

US Total 14,850,532 5,805,299 39.1%Asian non-Latino 4,555,852 2,056,041 45.1%Black non-Latino 1,194,615 447,959 37.5%Latino 4,658,075 1,883,582 40.4%White non-Latino 4,173,046 1,321,834 31.7%Other non-Latino 268,945 95,884 35.7%Note: Population data are 2005/2006; Registration rates are 2004

Source: 2005/2006 American Community Survey; 2004 Current Population Survey

Asian Immigrants Are Least Likely to Be Registered Voters

• Among naturalized immigrants, rates of voter registration vary considerably among the major racial/ethnic groups.

• 46 percent of naturalized Asian are not registered to vote.

• 41 percent of naturalized Latinos are not registered.

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Percent of Naturalized Adults Not Registered to Vote

39% 38% 40%

32%

45%

36%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

US Total Asian non-Latino

Black non-Latino

Latino White non-Latino

Other non-Latino

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U.S. Citizen Children of Immigrants

In Many States, Large Percentages of Young Persons Have an Immigrant Parent

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Percent of U.S. Citizen Children Who Have an Immigrant Parent

Source: 2005/2006 American Community Survey

• Nationally, 3.7 million or 16 percent of young persons aged 12-17 years are U.S. citizens who have an immigrant parent.

• U.S. citizen children of immigrants are 41 percent of all young persons in California and 26 percent of young persons in New York.

Total Children 12-17

Total U.S Citizen Children of Immigrants 12-17

Percent of Children Who Are U.S. Citizens and Have an Immigrant Parent

United States 23,304,530 3,734,180 16.0% Arizona 468,621 94,772 20% California 3,025,352 1,231,003 41% Florida 1,267,374 280,065 22% Georgia 722,252 64,214 9% Illinois 1,015,993 168,346 17% Massachusetts 483,032 76,274 16% New Jersey 689,947 150,438 22% New York 1,467,163 376,542 26% Texas 1,909,828 416,719 22% Washington 496,623 72,678 15% Rest of U.S. 11,758,347 803,133 7%

Percent of Children Who Are U.S. Citizens and Have an Immigrant Parent

16% 20%

41%

22%9%

17% 16% 22% 26% 22%15%

0%10%20%30%40%50%

Latino Children Aged 12-17 Years in the United States

37%

15%

48%

Citizen children with noforeign-born parent

Non-citizen children

Citizen children with aforeign-born parent

Percent Asian Children 12-17 in the United States

9%

20%

71%

Citizen children with noforeign-born parent

Non-citizen children

Citizen children with aforeign-born parent

Percent of Citizen Children 12-17 Years of Age with an Immigrant Parent by Race/Ethnicity

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71% of Asian children are U.S. citizens with a foreign-born parent

48% of Latino children are U.S. citizens with a foreign-born parent

Source: 2005/2006 American Community Survey

Large Numbers of Asian and Latino Children Are U.S. Citizens Who Have an Immigrant Parent

Total Number of Children

Number of U.S. CitizenChildren with an

Immigrant Parent

Percent of Children WhoAre Citizens with an

Immigrant ParentAll Children 23,304,530 3,734,180 16.0%Asian non-Latino 875,351 624,508 71.3%Latino 4,018,424 1,911,056 47.6%White non-Latino 14,317,565 759,253 5.3%Other non-Latino 4,093,190 439,364 10.7%

Numbers of Asian/Latino Children with Immigrant Parents Are Particularly High in Some States

• More than three quarters of California and New Jersey Asian children are citizens who have an immigrant parent.

• More than 61 percent of California Latino children are citizens who have an immigrant parent.

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Percent of Asian Children 12-17 Who Are Citizen Children of Immigrants

71% 66%76% 68% 65% 73% 68% 76% 73% 72% 70%

0%20%40%60%80%

100%

Percent of Latino Children 12-17 Who Are Citizen Children of Immigrants

48% 42%61%

47% 39%54%

33% 43% 45% 42% 45%

0%20%40%60%80%

100%

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The Potential “Immigrant Inclusive”

Adult Population

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An “Immigrant Inclusive” Adult Citizenry in 2012 Could Include Large Numbers of Persons Who Have a Close Connection to the Immigrant Experience• The “Immigrant Inclusive”

population -- immigrants eligible to naturalize, naturalized adults and citizen children of immigrants turning 18 by 2012– potentially represents 12 percent of adults in that year.

• This “immigrant inclusive” population potentially represents 29 percent of California adults and 23 percent of New York adults.

Potential Citizen Adults

Immigrants and Their Young Adult

Children

"Immigrant Inclusive" Percent

United States 232,187,328 26,834,712 11.6% Arizona 4,448,883 498,013 11.2% California 26,577,031 7,833,147 29.5% Florida 13,955,444 2,427,197 17.4% Georgia 6,993,791 418,444 6.0% Illinois 9,879,718 1,270,586 12.9% Massachusetts 5,074,602 666,496 13.1% New Jersey 6,725,819 1,312,444 19.5% New York 15,073,381 3,439,183 22.8% Texas 16,896,889 2,338,519 13.8% Washington 5,032,647 560,686 11.1% Rest of U.S. 121,529,125 6,070,000 5.0%Source: 2005/2006 American Community Survey; authors' estimates

Potential Scope of an "Immigrant Inclusive" Adult Citizenry in 2012

"Immigrant Inclusive" Percent of Potential Voters: 2012

12% 11%

29%

17%

6%13% 13%

20% 23%14% 11%

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%

Methodology

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Data Item Source NotesNaturalized immigrants American Community Survey

2005-2006Data from ACS years 2005 and 2006 were aggregated and averaged for this report to minimize sampling error.

Registration rates of naturalized immigrants

Current Population Survey 2004

Legal immigrants eligible to naturalize

U.S. Department of Homeland Security; American Community Survey 2005-2006

USDHS provides estimates for states and countries of origin separately.  We develop country-specific state-level estimates by apportioning national data, using ACS estimates on the place of residence of foreign-born persons.

Children of Immigrants American Community Survey 2005-2006

Includes “own children” in families.

Methodology Notes

About Rob Paral and Associates

Rob Paral and Associates is a consulting firm that helps institutions understand the populations they serve and the impact of their programs. We collect and analyze information and present our findings in an accessible format. Our recent projects have included:

• Helping a health policy organization determine the need for health insurance in legislative districts in Illinois.

• Estimating the numbers of legal immigrants in U.S. metro areas for a national philanthropic organization.• Providing a legal aid corporation with information to understand the shifting needs of its clients. • Evaluating the impact of charitable giving and support for community foundations in the Midwest.• Developing policies and procedures needed by a state agency to communicate with limited-English clients.

Direct outcomes of our work have recently been cited in The New York Times, the Washington Post, the Economist, the Wall Street Journal, and a large number of other major news media outlets. Please contact Rob Paral and Associates at info@robparal.com, www.robparal.com, and 773-506-7308.

16Rob Paral and Associates

Research and evaluation for family and community development

Rob Paral and AssociatesResearch and evaluation for family and community development