estimating ethnic mortality
DESCRIPTION
Estimating Ethnic Mortality. Pia Wohland. ESRC Research Award RES-165-25-0032, 01.10.2007- 30.09.2009 What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas. Mortality input data for. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
ESRC Research Award RES-165-25-0032, 01.10.2007- 30.09.2009What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas
EstimatingEthnic Mortality
Pia Wohland
Survival probability for ethnic groups in 432 local areas of the UK, by SYA age and 2 gender
UK:England 16 ethnic groups 352 LAWales 16ethnic groups 22 LAScotland 5 ethnic groups 32 LANorthern Ireland 12 ethnic groups 26 LA
Ethnic projection model by local areas (LA) of the UK
Mortality input data for
We have.....
Ethnic population estimates and projections in the UK
BUT
No ethnic specific mortality
Except:•Longitudinal Study•ONS ethnic group infant mortality (2008)
• United States
New Zealand
Is ethnic group mortality of importance?
Ajwani S, Blakely T, Robson B, Tobias M, Bonne M. 2003. Decades ofDisparity: Ethnic mortality trends in New Zealand 1980-1999. Wellington: Ministryof Health and University of Otago.
Arias E. United States life tables, 2004. National vital statistics reports; vol56 no 9. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2007.
Surrogate data?Self-reported health - a strong predictor of subsequent mortality.
(Burström and Friedlund 2001, McGee et al. (1999) Heistaro et al. (2001) Helwig-Larson et al. (2003) Franks et al. (2003) , Singh and Siahpush (2001)
•The relationship for men is different from that for women.
•Socioeconomic factors are important in explaining mortality variation across groups but self-reported health status still has a significant influence after controlling for them.
•There is variation between racial/ethnic groups in the self-reported health-mortality link but it is not huge.
•There is an important influence of immigrant generation with the first generation having better self-reported health and mortality than subsequent generations.
Census 2001 Question
Available for local areas, ethnic groups and age groups
School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
ALL PERSONDEATHS DATA
2001 Vital statistics
Countries & Local Authorities
POPULATION DATA
2001 Mid year Estimates
Countries & Local Authorities
ALL PERSON STANDARDISED MORTALITY RATIOS (SMR)
2001, UK Standard
Countries & Local Authorities
STANDARDISED MORTALITY RATIOS BY ETHNICITY
2001, UK Standard
Countries & Local Authorities
LIFE TABLES & SURVIVORSHIP PROBABILITIES BY ETHNICITY
2001 (Calendar Year)
Countries & Local Authorities
ALL PERSON RESIDENTS DATA
2001 Census Tables S16,S65
Countries & Local Authorities
ALL PERSON LIMITING LONG TERM ILLNESS DATA
2001 Census Tables S16,S65Countries & Local
Authorities
ALL PERSON STANDARDISED ILLNESS RATIOS
(SIR)
2001 , UK Standard
Countries & Local Authorities
RESIDENTS DATA BY ETHNICITY
2001 Census Tables ST 101, 107, 207, 318
Countries & Local Authorities
LIMITING LONG TERM ILLNESS BY ETHNICITY
2001 Census Tables ST 101, 107, 207, 318
Countries & Local Authorities
STANDARDISED ILLNESS RATIOS BY ETHNICITY
(SIR)
2001, UK Standard
Countries & Local Authorities
Method 1Using illness data from the census
Step 1 compute life tables for all UK LAs: mortality rates
Wales
120 to 135 (0)
110 to 120 (6)
100 to 110 (31)
90 to 100 (20)
80 to 90 (2)
70 to 80 (0)
Female SMR UKEngland
120 to 135 (5)
110 to 120 (40)
100 to 110 (93)
90 to 100 (151)
80 to 90 (88)
70 to 80 (13)
Northern Ireland
120 to 135 (0)
110 to 120 (8)
100 to 110 (6)
90 to 100 (11)
80 to 90 (2)
70 to 80 (0)
Scotland
120 to 135 (11)
110 to 120 (35)
100 to 110 (76)
90 to 100 (26)
80 to 90 (0)
70 to 80 (0)
Wales
120 to 135 (0)
110 to 120 (6)
100 to 110 (31)
90 to 100 (20)
80 to 90 (2)
70 to 80 (0)
Female SMR UKEngland
120 to 135 (5)
110 to 120 (40)
100 to 110 (93)
90 to 100 (151)
80 to 90 (88)
70 to 80 (13)
Northern Ireland
120 to 135 (0)
110 to 120 (8)
100 to 110 (6)
90 to 100 (11)
80 to 90 (2)
70 to 80 (0)
Scotland
120 to 135 (11)
110 to 120 (35)
100 to 110 (76)
90 to 100 (26)
80 to 90 (0)
70 to 80 (0)
Standardised mortality ratio (SMR)
Standardisation = Observed data / Excepted data
Standard populationUK
UK population mortality ratesillness rates
All group SMR as a function of SIRDifferences between home countries?
Nation Gender r2 Intercept SlopeEngland 0.51 52.1 0.48Wales Females 0.78 43.9 0.37Scotland 0.69 60.5 0.64Northern Ireland 0.16 71.2 0.26
Gender r2 Intercept Slope 0.63 47.3 0.52
Males 0.56 54.9 0.39 0.75 28.3 0.82 0.40 59.9 0.36
♀ ♂
Female SIR175.00150.00125.00100.0075.0050.00
Fem
ale
SM
R
150.00
125.00
100.00
75.00
50.00
Fit line for TotalEthnic minorty <= 8.2%Ethnic minorty > 8.2%Fit line for TotalEthnic minorty <= 8.2%Ethnic minorty > 8.2%
ETH_Min
R Sq Linear = 0.484
Male SIR175.00150.00125.00100.0075.0050.00
Mal
e S
MR
150.00
125.00
100.00
75.00
50.00
Fit line for TotalFit line for TotalEthnic minority <= 8.2%Ethinc minorty > 8.2%Ethnic minority <= 8.2%Ethinc minorty > 8.2%
ETH_Min
R Sq Linear = 0.583
Female SIR175.00150.00125.00100.0075.0050.00
Fem
ale
SM
R
150.00
125.00
100.00
75.00
50.00
Fit line for TotalEthnic minorty <= 8.2%Ethnic minorty > 8.2%Fit line for TotalEthnic minorty <= 8.2%Ethnic minorty > 8.2%
ETH_Min
♀ ♂
England all group SMR as a function of SIR:High ethnic minority versus low ethnic minority LAs
Female SIR17515012510075
Fem
ale
SM
R
140
120
100
80
60
SouthNorthFit line for TotalSouthNorth
Female SIR17515012510075
Fem
ale
SM
R
140
120
100
80
60
SouthNorthFit line for TotalSouthNorth
Male SIR1751501251007550
Mal
e S
MR
140
120
100
80
60
SouthNorthFit line for TotalSouthNorth
http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2007/10_04/england2410_468x816.jpg
England all group SMR as a function of SIR:North versus South
♂
Standardized Illness Ratios for ethnic groups in England
0 50 150 2500
5010
015
0 White British
Num
ber
of L
As
0 50 150 2500
5010
015
0
97 (m)96 (f)
0 50 150 250
050
100
150 White Irish
0 50 150 250
050
100
150
109 (m)100 (f)
0 50 150 250
050
100
150 Other White
0 50 150 250
050
100
150
79 (m)83 (f)
0 50 150 250
050
100
150 White & Black Caribbean
0 50 150 250
050
100
150
135 (m)133 (f)
0 50 150 250
050
100
150 White & Black African
Num
ber
of L
As
0 50 150 250
050
100
150
121 (m)117 (f)
0 50 150 2500
5010
015
0 White & Asian
0 50 150 2500
5010
015
0
108 (m)107 (f)
0 50 150 250
050
100
150 Other Mixed
0 50 150 250
050
100
150
115 (m)110 (f)
0 50 150 250
050
100
150 Indian
0 50 150 250
050
100
150
99 (m)122 (f)
0 50 150 250
050
100
150 Pakistani
Num
ber
of L
As
0 50 150 250
050
100
150
133 (m)159 (f)
0 50 150 250
050
100
150 Bangladeshi
0 50 150 250
050
100
150
138 (m)152 (f)
0 50 150 2500
5010
015
0 Other Asian
0 50 150 2500
5010
015
0
105 (m)119 (f)
0 50 150 250
050
100
150 Black Caribbean
0 50 150 250
050
100
150
110 (m)122 (f)
0 50 150 250
050
100
150 Black African
SIR
Num
ber
of L
As
0 50 150 250
050
100
150
83 (m)98 (f)
0 50 150 250
050
100
150 Other Black
SIR
0 50 150 250
050
100
150
129 (m)135 (f)
0 50 150 250
050
100
150 Chinese
SIR
0 50 150 250
050
100
150
60 (m)67 (f)
0 50 150 2500
5010
015
0 Other Ethnic Group
SIR
0 50 150 2500
5010
015
0
87 (m)80 (f)
Small number issue
♀♀ = above threshold
= below threshold = need model replacementthreshold = 10 ill, 100 population
SMR Bangladeshi Males
150 to < 175 (4)
130 to < 150 (41)
115 to < 130 (98)
101 to < 115 (146)
99 to < 101 (22)
85 to < 99 (43)
62 to < 85 (0)
SMR White British Males
150 + (0)
130 to < 150 (1)
115 to < 130 (18)
101 to < 115 (75)
99 to < 101 (25)
85 to < 99 (202)
62 to <85 (33)
SMR Indian Males
150 + (0)
130 to <150 (1)
115 to <130 (19)
101 to <115 (79)
99 to <101 (17)
85 to <99 (187)
62 to <85 (51)
SMR Chinese Males
150 + (0)
130 to < 150 (0)
115 to < 130 (0)
101 to < 115 (1)
99 to < 101 (0)
85 to < 99 (58)
55 to < 85 (295)
SMRs for White British Males
SMRs for Indian Males
SMRs for Bangladeshi Males
SMRs for Chinese males
Results: SMRs
SMRS for all groups
Estimate mortality rates by age and sex for ethnic groups from estimated SMRs:
Miexg = Mi
xg × SMRi eg / 100
We assume each ethnic group has the same mortality pattern by age
Adjust the estimated mortality rates so that they agree with the all group mortality rates.
From SMR to mortality rates
The ranking of mean life expectancy for ethnic groups, men and women, England, 2001
Rank Ethnic groupMean e0
Rank Ethnic groupMean e0
Ethnic groupYears Rank
Women Men ♀ - ♂ ♀ - ♂
1 Chinese 82.1 1 Chinese 78.1 Indian 3.8 5
2 Other Ethnic 81.5 2 Other White 76.9 Chinese 4 0
3 Other White 81.3 3 Other Ethnic 76.2 Pakistani 4.2 1
4 White British 80.5 4 Black African 76.1 Other Asian 4.3 2
All groups 80.5 All group 76 Black African 4.3 1
5 Black African 80.4 5 White British 75.9 Other White 4.4 1
6 White-Irish 80.3 6 Indian 75.5 All group 4.5 0
7 White-Asian 80 7 Other Asian 75.2 White British 4.6 -1
8 Other Mixed 79.9 8 White-Asian 75.1 Black Caribbean 4.7 1
9 Other Asian 79.5 9 White-Irish 74.9 White-Asian 4.9 -1
10 White-Black African 79.5 10 Other Mixed 74.6 Bangladeshi 5 -1
11 Indian 79.3 11 Black Caribbean 74.4 Other Black 5.1 1
12 Black Caribbean 79.1 12 White-Black African 74.2 Other Ethnic 5.3 -1
13 White-Black Caribbean 78.7 13 Other Black 73.4 White-Black African 5.3 -2
14 Other Black 78.5 14 White-Black Caribbean 73.4 White-Black Caribbean 5.3 -1
15 Bangladeshi 77.7 15 Pakistani 73.1 Other Mixed 5.3 -2
16 Pakistani 77.3 16 Bangladeshi 72.7 White-Irish 5.4 -3
Spatial distribution of life expectancies at birth 2001(1)
White Other
Black African
Black Caribbean Pakistani
≥81.2 to <85.9
≥78.9 to <81.2
≥73.8 to <78.9
♀♀
Chinese ♀♀
≥81.2 to <85.9
≥78.9 to <81.2
≥73.8 to <78.9
Spatial distribution of life expectancies at birth 2001(2)
Pakistani
Spatial distribution of life expectancies at birth 2001 (3)
♂♂
Pakistani and other South Asian
≥77.2 to <84.6
≥74.5 to < 77.2
≥68.7 to < 74.5
1995 2000 2005
75
80
85
Townsend deprivation quintiles
Life
exp
ect
an
cy a
t bir
th, U
KT 1 (least deprived)T 2T 3T 4T 5 (most deprived)
Outlook- Projection Scenarios
7075
8085
Life
exp
acta
ncy
at b
irth
M SIR
WBRWIR
OWHWBC
WBAWAS
OMIIND
PAKBAN
OASBCA
BAFOBL
CHIOET
7075
8085
Life
exp
acta
ncy
at b
irth
M GWM
WBRWIR
OWHWBC
WBAWAS
OMIIND
PAKBAN
OASBCA
BAFOBL
CHIOET
7075
8085
Life
exp
acta
ncy
at b
irth
F SIR
WBR
WIR
OWH
WBC
WBA
WAS
OMI
IND
PAK
BAN
OAS
BCA
BAF
OBL
CHI
OET
7075
8085
Life
exp
acta
ncy
at b
irth
F GWM
WBR
WIR
OWH
WBC
WBA
WAS
OMI
IND
PAK
BAN
OAS
BCA
BAF
OBL
CHI
OET
Comparison with an alternative method
7075
8085
Life
exp
acta
ncy
at b
irth
M SIR
WBRWIR
OWHWBC
WBAWAS
OMIIND
PAKBAN
OASBCA
BAFOBL
CHIOET
7075
8085
Life
exp
acta
ncy
at b
irth
M GWM
WBRWIR
OWHWBC
WBAWAS
OMIIND
PAKBAN
OASBCA
BAFOBL
CHIOET
7075
8085
Life
exp
acta
ncy
at b
irth
F SIR
WBR
WIR
OWH
WBC
WBA
WAS
OMI
IND
PAK
BAN
OAS
BCA
BAF
OBL
CHI
OET
7075
8085
Life
exp
acta
ncy
at b
irth
F GWM
WBR
WIR
OWH
WBC
WBA
WAS
OMI
IND
PAK
BAN
OAS
BCA
BAF
OBL
CHI
OET
England
♂♂
England
♀♀
Alternative:geographically weighted
Alternative:geographically weighted
Method of choice
Method of choice