estimating optimal capital requirements for banks
TRANSCRIPT
Peterson Institute for International Economics | 1750 Massachusetts Ave., NW | Washington, DC 200366/17/2016 1
Estimating Optimal Capital
Requirements for Banks
William R. Cline
Senior FellowPeterson Institute for International Economics
Modigliani-Miller Equity Cost as
Function of Debt/Equity Leverage
ππ = π + π β ππ·π
ππ
ππ = unit cost of equity
π = sectoral capitalization rate
π = interest rate
π·π = debt
ππ = shareholder equity
M&M Test for 51 Large US Banks 2001-13
Earnings yield: Adj. R2 = 0.088
eyt = 6.63 + 0.0513 Rtβ1 -1.89 D0810; (19.5) (1.62) (β7.2)
R: debt/equity D: dummy
Net income/ Book equity Adj. R2 =0.268
NIt/Etβ1 = 7.206 + 0.636 Rtβ1 -5.823 D0810; (10.0) (9.4) (β10.5)
Losses from a Banking CrisisOutput
Timet0t-1 t1 t2
Qt-1
Q*
Qt0
A
B
Deriving the benefits curve
Baseline damage: π·0 = πππ0π0
Crisis probability: ππππ = π΄ππΎ, πΎ < 0
Benefit: π΅ = β(ππππ β πππ0)π0
= βπ΄π0 ππΎ β π0πΎ
Marginal benefit: ππ΅
ππ= βπ΄π0πΎπ
πΎβ1
BCBS Schedule of Crisis Probability
For Alternative Capital Ratios
Benefits of higher capital ratios
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
0.0
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TCE/TA
Fraction of GDP
Impact on cost of capital
to the economy
Banks: π§ = π§0 + (π β π0)(ππ΅ β ππ)(1 β π)
Non-banks: πππ΅,0 + π Γ (π§ β π§0)
Economy:
π€ = ππ΅ π§ + ππ + πππ΅πππ΅ + ππππ
Proportional change π£ =π€π
π€0β 1
Cost of higher capital cost to
economy
πΆ =π£ Γ πΌ Γ π
(1 β πΌ)
= output elasticity with respect to capital
= elasticity of substitution, capital & labor
If =0.33, = 0.5, w0= 0.1, w = 0.01, and
v =0.1, then:
πΆ = 0.025
Marginal cost to economy from
higher k is constant
ππΆ
ππ=ππΆ
ππ£Γππ£
ππ€Γππ€ππ§
Γππ§ππ
=πΌπ
1βπΌ
1
π€0ππ΅ + ππππ΅ ππ΅ β ππ 1 β π
β‘ π
Benefits and costs of additional
bank capital
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
0.035
0.0
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CostBenefit
ratio of capital to total assets
fraction of GDP
Simulation parameters
Parameter Concept Low OCR Base High OCR
Loss from crisis 0.3 0.64 1.0
B Equity cost to banks 0.13 0.10 0.07
M&M offset 0.35 0.45 0.60
Nonbank spillover 0.7 0.5 0.2
Capital elasticity 0.43 0.40 0.33
Substitution elast. 0.8 0.5 0.4
Frequency, optimal capital ratio
0
100
200
300
0.0
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optimal capital/asset ratio
Optimal Capital Requirements(tce/rwa %)
Great Recession change, net income/assets,
and log asset size, 50 large US banks
-0.03
-0.025
-0.02
-0.015
-0.01
-0.005
0
0.005
0.01
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8