estimation techniques for scrum teams

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Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams

Morning Talk SeriesBy Jesus Mendez

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Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams

About You

https://leanpub.com/forming_agile_teams

http://jesusmendez.ca/

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I’m passionate reader who nurtures from curiosity by connecting with people and finding ways to change the world by learning and sharing, one conversation at a time. An authentic dancer who uses coaching to help himself and others to thrive.

About Me

Twitter: @chuzzete



http://www.leanpub.com/forming_agile_teams

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Morning Talk Series: Transforming TeamsLink to BOOK / WEBSITE Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams

0. Introduction (Warm up) 0.5 Context (Agile Scrum) (5 minutes)1. Thoughts about Estimation in Software Development (10 minutes)2. Thoughts about the #NoEstimates movement (20 minutes)3. Estimating Scrum Projects – Challenges (10 minutes)

Let’s reflect about our biggest challenges when estimating scrum projects Write down the biggest challenges that you’re facing

Let’s share them in groups of three-four people What have we learned? Any similarities?

4. Our role in the Estimation process (5 Minutes)5. Coffee Break (5 Minutes)6. Estimation Techniques Workshop (60 Minutes)

Absolute Estimates Planning Poker Affinity Estimation Relative Estimation

7. Coffee Break (5 Minutes)8. Final thoughts (Retrospective) – (30 Minutes)9. What’s next (5 Minutes)

Proposed Agenda



https://leanpub.com/agile_teams_from_forming_to_performing

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Individuals

Teams

Divisions

Organization

Consume + Request

CONTEXT



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CONTEXT



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TEAMSAgile Values

Customer Collaboration Individuals & Interactions Working Software Responding to change

Agile Mindset

Iterative approach Continuous Feedback Self-Organization Working together Have fun Get better results faster

CONTEXT



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CONTEXT

Individuals

Teams

Divisions

Organization



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CONTEXT



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Forming Agile Teams - Flow

Techniques for Forming Agile Teams


1 Planning The Team

Transformation Process 2 Team

Transformation Process

Kickoff BProduct

RoadMapping(Team Level)3 Iteration

Planning4 Daily Sync

5 Help Team stay

focused

8 Iteration Retrospective

Team PerformanceSatisfaction 7Iteration

Review

9 IterationReport

A Product Road

Mapping(Stakeholder Level)

6 Product Backlog

Refinement

IterationReview

Preparation

ITERATION

1 or 2 Weeks



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WHAT’S THAT?



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THOUGHTS ABOUT ESTIMATION (SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT)

What’s that ?Human Evaluation(Amount of Work to develop something)= Estimation

=

Human Evaluation

Amount of work

Estimation



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THOUGHTS ABOUT ESTIMATION (the optimism bias)(also known as unrealistic or comparative optimism)

cognitive bias that causes a person to believe that they are less at risk of experiencing a negative event compared to others.

Even though if we have Previous experience



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THOUGHTS ABOUT ESTIMATION (cognitive bias/the optimism bias)



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WHY DO WE ESTIMATE PROJECTS?



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THOUGHtS ABOUT ESTIMATION (WHAT’S FOR?)

PROJECT IS PROFITABLE

FITS INTO THE SPRINT

WHAT TO DO IN A SPRINTWHAT BRINGS

MORE VALUEREQUIRED RESOURCES

BUDGET TO HELPDECIDE GO OR NOT GO

TEAM ENGAGEMENT



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THOUGHTS ABOUT ESTIMATION (WHAT’S FOR?)

ESTIMATION



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WHAT’S THE ULTIMATE

GOAL?



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Estimation Techniques for Scrum teams


People get:- Very caught up in the actual number, forgetting that it’s just an estimate

and wrong anyway. - Very emotionally invested in being “right”, they start defending their

estimates, or giving in to the majority without discussion.- There is confusion between team members about the proper way to

estimate effort.When the real deal when estimating effort is

to get a Shared Understanding and Consensus, it is just a way to plan and know where we are against the plan.

THE ULTIMATE GOAL (AGILE CONTEXT)

Relative estimate vs. absolute80/20Rule

L.E.B.ERule

Getting about 80% right estimates with 20% of the effort

Less Effort Better Estimates



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WHAT ABOUT OTHER

ALTERNATIVES?



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THE #NOESTIMATES MOVEMENT



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GO BACK TO THE SOURCE

ESTIMATION

SIMPLEREDUCE WASTE

THE #NOESTIMATES MOVEMENT



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HACK 1. Minimize Importance of the Decision

ApproximateDirection

Learniteratively

Adapt

Collaborate

Flexible Team Roadmapbased on goals

achievable withinthe next Quarter

Sprint results vs

Team Roadmap

AdaptTeam Roadmap

Each Sprint

keepTeam Roadmap

Visible for the team

FAIL EARLY LEARN FASTER REDUCED COST FLEXIBILITY

#NOESTIMATES HACKs



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HACK 2. Focus on the Vision

Product Vision

Regularly revised

Prioritized Backlog

Short Iterations focus is on existing

projects only(Short term)

Feedback

Product Vision Clearly established

Product BacklogWell Sliced

Progress iteratively

#NOESTIMATES HACKs



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HACK 3. Set a limited budget

Set small amount of money for a short period of time

• Iteration reviews each week

Decide to continue or not by the end of the period

HELP US DECIDE AFTER TRYING => Reduce risk without planning at the beginning

#NOESTIMATES HACKs



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HACK 4. Amount of stories completed vs velocity

Prerequisite

User story decoupling Is properly done

Experiences Agile Teams

Fine

Stories

Prioritized Backlog

#AmountStori

es delivered

#NOESTIMATES HACKs



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HACK 4. Amount of stories completed vs velocity

Aug-2Sep-1

Sep-2Oct-1

Oct-2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

12.0

15.0 16.0

10.0

13.0

8.0

17.0

26.0

11.0

20.0

13.0014.00

9.00

13.0011.00

#Items completed vs Completed Story Points x sprint

# Items CompletedLinear (# Items Completed)Completed (Story Points)Linear (Completed (Story Points))# Forecast

#NOESTIMATES HACKs



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WHAT’S OUR ROLE IN THE ESTIMATION

PROCESS?




Our Role as Scrum Master



Connect people and make things happen

COMMON SENSE INSTALLERS







MAKE THINGS VISIBLE







HELPPEOPLE







MAKE ITEASIER



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Estimation at different levels

T-SHIRT SIZES

Affinity Estimates

Planning Poker

Absolute Estimates

Sprints

Story Points

Story Points

Hours

Sprints



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Content

2

3

Planning Poker

Relative Estimation

1

4Absolute Estimates

Affinity estimation

Rules- 4 Exercises.

- 10 Minutes duration per exercise.

- Team had to estimate items using a diff. technique.

- Each team got a set of cards with items written on them.

- Each team got the same items so we could compare between teams at the end.

- When each team finished estimating, the facilitator wrote results per team in a flip chart/white board, and start the discussion about the technique.

- The facilitator shared correct answers once each team has completed each exercise.

- A general discussion is hold about all techniques and the team decides where we go from here

Estimation techniques workshop



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DescriptionThe items to be estimated are dogs.

Instructions- Each team have to estimate the weight of each dog(item) in

kilograms - Each team discuss about the item to get shared understanding- After consensus, the team should decide what estimate would be

assigned to each dog (item)

Special note- To be able to compare each estimation technique, all teams should try their best to get results as soon as they can.

Exercise 1: Absolute Estimates



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Item Team 1 Team 2 Team 3 Team 4 Team 5 Correct Answer

Chihuahua 3

Great Dane 90

Staffordshire Bull Terrier

17

Appalachian Mountain Dog

0

Border Collie

34

American Cocker Spaniel

13

Exercise 1: Absolute estimation Results



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DescriptionThe items to be estimated are country area. Remember that this technique is used for relative estimation

Instructions- Use Spain as your reference point (Value assigned to Spain Area is 3)- Each team have to estimate the area of each country(item) - Each team discuss about the item to get shared understanding, then each person chooses a card

from their set that they think is the closes fit. - Everyone displays their cards at the same time (avoid influencing other between each other). - People discuss the outliers, usually the highest and lowest numbers to see of the people who

selected them, had a different understanding to everyone else.- After discussion, people re-vote taking in consideration anything uncovered in the discussion.- Once everyone converges on a number that is selected as the estimate.- If convergence is not reached by the third vote, then the team would take the highest number or

majority number.Special note- To be able to compare each estimation technique, all teams should try their best to get results as soon as they can.

Exercise 2: Planning Poker



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Spain 3 3 3 3 3 3

China 40

Luxembourg 0

Denmark 1

South Africa 8

Belize 1

Exercise 2: Planning Poker Results



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DescriptionThe items to be estimated are cars volume. Remember that this technique is used for relative estimation

Instructions- Lay out one set of planning poker cards so that you have all the numbers.- Agree on a reference story, and place it next to the reference point. In this case put the card

“Convertible” next to the Planning poker card identified with the number “3”.- Give the stack of story cards to the first person in the team.- Each person has a turn where you can either:

- take a new car from the stack of story cards and place it where you think it fits, or- Move a card already on the table to a new spot if you don’t agree with it.- Note: You must always move a card if you don’t agree with the estimate rather than playing a new one- Note2: If you play a new card it means you are happy with every card on the table.

- After your turn you hand the cards to the next person.- If you do a full circuit of the team and one card has been moved each time, then you discuss it

before continuing.- Note: People could explain why they are placing a card at a certain number, but remember,

open discussion just when a card was moved.

Exercise 3: Affinity Estimation



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Motorbike

Startship enterprize

SUV

Minivan

Convertible 3 3 3 3 3 3

Bus

Exercise 3: Affinity estimation Results



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DescriptionThe items to be estimated are Animal weight. Remember that this technique is used for relative estimation

Instructions

- Take all story cards and arrange them on the table in ascending size (ignore the reference point for now)

- Decide what is bigger and what’s the same size (It can be done all team members together)

- Once you the team has arranged all cards, only then assign numbers, starting with the reference point (the “impala” in this case)

Exercise 4: Relative Estimation



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Elephant

Giraffe

Elephant shrew

crocodile

snake

impala 3 3 3 3 3 3

Exercise 4: Relative estimation Results



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References

Forming-Storming-Norming-Performing, http://www.amazon.com/Forming-Storming-Norming-Performing-Communication/dp/1475968434/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1445431235&sr=8-1&keywords=forming+teams

The Five dysfunctions of a Team, http://www.amazon.com/Overcoming-Five-Dysfunctions-Team-Facilitators/dp/0787976377/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1445431275&sr=8-1&keywords=overcoming+the+five+dysfunctions+of+a+team

The Pause Principle http://www.amazon.com/Pause-Principle-Forward-Kevin-Cashman/dp/B00DEK8RUI/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1445431361&sr=1-2&keywords=pause+principle

The Secret of Teams, http://www.amazon.com/Secret-Teams-What-Great-Know/dp/1609940938/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1445431429&sr=1-1&keywords=the+secrets+of+teams

Coaching Agile Teams, http://www.amazon.com/Coaching-Agile-Teams-ScrumMasters-Addison-Wesley/dp/0321637704/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1445431456&sr=1-1&keywords=coaching+agile+teams



http://www.amazon.com/Forming-Storming-Norming-Performing-Communication/dp/1475968434/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1445431235&sr=8-1&keywords=forming+teams




http://www.amazon.com/Overcoming-Five-Dysfunctions-Team-Facilitators/dp/0787976377/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1445431275&sr=8-1&keywords=overcoming+the+five+dysfunctions+of+a+team





http://www.amazon.com/Pause-Principle-Forward-Kevin-Cashman/dp/B00DEK8RUI/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1445431361&sr=1-2&keywords=pause+principle




http://www.amazon.com/Secret-Teams-What-Great-Know/dp/1609940938/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1445431429&sr=1-1&keywords=the+secrets+of+teams



http://www.amazon.com/Coaching-Agile-Teams-ScrumMasters-Addison-Wesley/dp/0321637704/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1445431456&sr=1-1&keywords=coaching+agile+teams



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Book: http://www.leanpub.com/forming_agile_teams

Twitter: @chuzzeteWebsite: www.jesusmendez.ca Email: [email protected]

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