et2050 new step towards scenarios tpg meeting bruxelles march 2012
TRANSCRIPT
ET2050New Step towards Scenarios
TPG Meeting Bruxelles March 2012
Most likely scenario
Worse-Scenario
SPSP / Infographic Group United Kingdom view by Alessandro Augiri ex. Flows?
According to Project Specifications:
This scenario provides an image of the European territory in which economic and population growth as well as public investments are mainly stimulated to take place within maincorridors. Europe of the Flows is characterised by strong connections between cities and transport nodes that structure the European territory. Political focus lies on issues such as enhancing connections and long distance networks and global integration
SPSP / Infographic Group Netherlands // Paul van Hemert ex. Cities?
According to Project Specifications:
This scenario provides an image of the European territory in which economic and population growth as well as public investments are mainly stimulated to take place within existing cities; cities that have a role as driving forces in the global, national and/or regional level. Europe of the Cities is characterised by economically strong and compact cities that structure the European territory. Political focus lies on issues such as intensified use of urban space, strong preservation of open space, reduction of long-distance traffic
ex. Regions?
According to Project Specifications:
This scenario provides an image of the European territory in which economic and population growth as well as public investments mainly take place on the basis of specific regional identities and strengths. Europe of the Regions is characterised by strong urban and rural territories that form a mosaic of different regions and types of territories with strong identities. Political focus lies on issues such as regional self-reliance, small-scale development and landscape protection.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Consistent Likely Desirable
CITIES FLOWS REGIONS
Initial Assessment: Opinions of the ET2050 experts
Next Assessment: Opinions of the Krakow Seminar experts
Next Assessment: Opinions of the Krakow Seminar experts
Next Assessment: Opinions of the Krakow Seminar experts
Jacques Robert (2011) Scenario territoral-policy matrix
Michael Wegener (2012) based on Jacques Robert (2011)
Political/economic framework
Scale Scenario
orientation A Global
integration
B Euro-crisis
C Fortress Europe
D Energy scarcity
1 European Promotion of competitive metropolitan areas
A1 B1 C1 D1
2 Transnational /macro- regional
Promotion of macro-regional territorial integration
A2 B2 C2 D2
3 Regional Promotion of endo-genous regional potentials
A3 B3 C3 D3
4 Subregional/ local
Promotion of territorial and social cohesion
A4 B4 C4 D4
Political/economic framework
Scale Scenario
orientation A Global
integration
B Euro-crisis
C Fortress Europe
D Energy scarcity
1 European Promotion of competitive metropolitan areas
A1 B1 C1 D1
2 Transnational /macro- regional
Promotion of macro-regional territorial integration
A2 B2 C2 D2
3 Regional Promotion of endo-genous regional potentials
A3 B3 C3 D3
4 Subregional/ local
Promotion of territorial and social cohesion
A4 B4 C4 D4
3/ National
Michael Wegener (2012) based on Jacques Robert (2011)
Political/economic framework
Scale Scenario
orientation A Global
integration
B Euro-crisis
C Fortress Europe
D Energy scarcity
1 European Promotion of competitive metropolitan areas
A1 B1 C1 D1
2 Transnational /macro- regional
Promotion of macro-regional territorial integration
A2 B2 C2 D2
3 Regional Promotion of endo-genous regional potentials
A3 B3 C3 D3
4 Subregional/ local
Promotion of territorial and social cohesion
A4 B4 C4 D4
REGIONS
CITIES
FLOWSTOWNS
Local differencié Archipel éclaté
Polycentrisme maillé
Centralisme renové
Territorial scenarios for France “Amenager la France” (DATAR, AEBK 1999)
SustainableGrowth
(Growingwithinlimits)
ResilientDevelopment
(New Welfare)
UnhealthyGrowth
(Growingwithout
limits)
Declineand/or collapse
I II
IIIIV
PASHMINA Paradigm Shift AnalyzerDO IT FAST
DO IT SLOW
DO IT TOGETHER
DO IT
ALONE
The Future of Internet
ENERGY & INTERNET
CONVERGENCE
SOCIAL INTERNET
SURFING ALONE
INTERNET DISCONNECTION
I II
IIIIV
DO IT
TOGETHERDO IT ALONE
DO IT FAST
DO IT SLOW
Internet Infrastructure& Regulation
Internet UseBehaviour
The Future of Global Governance
GLOBAL CONSTITUTION
LEGAL BORDERS
LEGAL INTERNET
GOVERNANCEBREAKDOWN
I II
IIIIV
PUBLICPRIVATE
INTERNATIONAL
NATIONAL
Global vs Regional-ledGovernance
Public vs Private-ledGovernance
The Future of Population Settlement
DEMOGRAPHIC BOOM
(Fast growing population)
DEMOGRAPHIC STAGNATION(Decliningpopulation
compensated by immigration)
DEMOGRAPHIC PRESSURE
(push& pull factors leadingtoemigration)
DEMOGRAPHIC DECAY
(Ageing& shrinking population)
I II
IIIIV
POSITIVENEGATIVE
HIGH
(above substitution)Fertility Rate
Net Immigration
LOW
(below substitution)
…
FUTURE PATTERNS RECOGNITIONSustainable
Growth(Growingwithin
limits)
ResilientDevelopment
(New Welfare)
UnhealthyGrowth
(Growingwithout
limits)
Declineand/or collapse
I II
IIIIV
PASHMINA Paradigm Shift AnalyzerDO IT FAST
DO IT SLOW
DO IT TOGETHER
DO IT
ALONE
The Future of Internet
ENERGY & INTERNET
CONVERGENCE
SOCIAL INTERNET
SURFING ALONE
INTERNET DISCONNECTION
I II
IIIIV
DO IT
TOGETHERDO IT ALONE
DO IT FAST
DO IT SLOW
Internet Infrastructure& Regulation
Internet UseBehaviour
The Future of Global Governance
GLOBAL CONSTITUTION
LEGAL BORDERS
LEGAL INTERNET
GOVERNANCEBREAKDOWN
I II
IIIIV
PUBLICPRIVATE
INTERNATIONAL
NATIONAL
Global vs Regional-ledGovernance
Public vs Private-ledGovernance
The Future of Population Settlement
DEMOGRAPHIC BOOM
(Fast growing population)
DEMOGRAPHIC STAGNATION(Decliningpopulation
compensated by immigration)
DEMOGRAPHIC PRESSURE
(push& pull factors leadingtoemigration)
DEMOGRAPHIC DECAY
(Ageing& shrinking population)
I II
IIIIV
POSITIVENEGATIVE
HIGH
(above substitution)Fertility Rate
Net Immigration
LOW
(below substitution)
…
FUTURE PATTERNS RECOGNITION
SustainableGrowth
(Growingwithinlimits)
ResilientDevelopment
(New Welfare)
UnhealthyGrowth
(Growingwithout
limits)
Declineand/or collapse
I II
IIIIV
PASHMINA Paradigm Shift AnalyzerDO IT FAST
DO IT SLOW
DO IT TOGETHER
DO IT
ALONE
The Future of Internet
ENERGY & INTERNET
CONVERGENCE
SOCIAL INTERNET
SURFING ALONE
INTERNET DISCONNECTION
I II
IIIIV
DO IT
TOGETHERDO IT ALONE
DO IT FAST
DO IT SLOW
Internet Infrastructure& Regulation
Internet UseBehaviour
The Future of Global Governance
GLOBAL CONSTITUTION
LEGAL BORDERS
LEGAL INTERNET
GOVERNANCEBREAKDOWN
I II
IIIIV
PUBLICPRIVATE
INTERNATIONAL
NATIONAL
Global vs Regional-ledGovernance
Public vs Private-ledGovernance
The Future of Population Settlement
DEMOGRAPHIC BOOM
(Fast growing population)
DEMOGRAPHIC STAGNATION(Decliningpopulation
compensated by immigration)
DEMOGRAPHIC PRESSURE
(push& pull factors leadingtoemigration)
DEMOGRAPHIC DECAY
(Ageing& shrinking population)
I II
IIIIV
POSITIVENEGATIVE
HIGH
(above substitution)Fertility Rate
Net Immigration
LOW
(below substitution)
…
FUTURE PATTERNS RECOGNITION
A
B
C
DELocal differencié
Archipel éclaté
Polycentrisme maillé
Centralisme renové
Regions
Flows/Markets/Technology (KS4)
Creative Cities/Government (KS2)
Talent Towns/Behaviour (KS1, KS5)
VISION ?
Links/Networks/CorporativismZones/Landscape/Cooperativism
Nodes/Territories/Institutions
Houston (Texas, USA)Antigua (Guatemala)
Singapur
Vevey (Nestlé HQ)?