ETHIOPIA SUSTAINABLE TOURISM DEVELOPMENT

PROJECT (ESTDP)

Impact Evaluation PlanDakar, February 3, 2010

LALIBELA

ADDIS ABABA

AXUM

ESTDP-Development Objective

Title of the Evaluation

Evaluation of the Impact of Implementing a Matching Grant

Scheme for the Enterprises in the Tourism Value Chain.

Contents of the Evaluation Plan

1. Intervention Description2.Evaluation question3.Evaluation Design4.Sampling and Data 5.Resources

1.Intervention DescriptionEthiopia has just launched a tourism development project

(ESTDP) with a purpose of narrowing the gap between its tourism potential and the economic value the country is currently making out of its historical, cultural and natural attractions and wonders.

The project is a multi-thematic and multi destination integrated project

Matching Grant Scheme (MGS) is one of the components of the project used as a vehicle to support private sector initiatives aimed at improving Ethiopian competitiveness in the tourism market

The MGS seeks to finance proposals submitted by the enterprises which prove to be innovative and significantly enhance the value chain in tourism sector

1.Intervention Description..ctd

The Scheme in particular will help the skills beneficiary enterprises:Upgrade the technological and managerial Improve market intelligence and success andFoster backward and forward linkages with in the private

sector and eventually increase the spill-over effects of the entire tourism sector

As a demand-Driven intervention, the application to the Matching Grant should come from business enterprises

The applicant commits to bearing 50% of the cost of the proposal prepared as a business plan

A total of 3 mill. USD is allotted for the MGS and a maximum cumulative grant per firm will be 50,000 USD

The expected outcome of this intervention will be the provision of improved products and services to tourists at the destinations which will lead to more spending and longer stay by tourists

2. Evaluation Questions1. Did the beneficiary firms of the MGS increase the range

and standard of the services they provide to tourists2. Did tourist satisfaction improve due to the improved

services provided by the MGS beneficiaries3. Are more tourist coming into the country due to the

effort of the MGS enterprises (increase in firm clients)4. Have the annual turnover and profit of the enterprises

shown significant increment for the MGS beneficiaries more than the control group

5. Are more gender equitable new jobs created by the MGS beneficiary enterprises (male vs female jobs created)

6. Has the growth and progress shown among the MGS beneficiary enterprises resulted in spillover effects on other smaller enterprises

3. Evaluation Design National statistics show that more than 300 enterprises

are licensed to engage in the tourism sector service provision

It is estimated that out of the total number of enterprises in the sector, about 200 firms shall apply for the MGS

Assumption is made that most of the enterprises demand for the grant of the maximum 50,000 USD and accordingly the project can reach 60 enterprises

It is expected that at least 120 of the 200 enterprises will be selected as eligible for the grant and also these selected enterprises would be capable of submitting a viable proposal and deliver if all secured the resource

The 120 enterprises selected will represent appropriate proportion of key industry segments of the value chain

3. Evaluation Design…ctd. Now we have a list of 120 eligible enterprises and

this group of enterprises will be stratified based on the typology of the enterprises (Tour operators, Hoteliers and Travel and other service agents)

Then each of the strata will be divided in to two equal group each element in the group will be selected by lottery method and this process will result in having two groups each with 60 members and constituting appropriate proportion from each type of enterprises in the value chain,

The financed group will be the treatment group and the other will serve as the control group.

4. Sampling and Data Regarding sampling procedure for the

evaluation, due to the fact that the number of units in both treatment and control group are small, then census is recommended and shall be implemented

The pool of data and information required to answer the evaluation question shall be collected using the following methods Carry out firms survey (including all tour operators

in Ethiopia) Carry out clients survey Design and implement tourism information system

and use the data so generated

5. Resource Requirement The evaluation work demands the use of a

consultant, enumerators installing and administrating tourist information system. Therefore the major cost items will be:

Consultancy Training Information system design and administration

Currently, the total project budget for M&E is about $640K

Support from the Impact Evaluation Researcher.

6. Time linePublicize the MGS March-June/2010Call for Expression of Interest (EoI)-May/2010Review the EoI and determine the treatment and

control groups July/2010Conduct Baseline Survey (Firm and client surveys) –

August/2010Support prospective beneficiaries in designing their

business plan (BP) July-August/2010Monitor the implementation of the BP of the selected

enterprises Sep.2010-June/2011Follow up surveys in July 2011Carry out the analysis ---Impact evaluation August-

December 2011

Thank You