1 ETTC

CALED “Smart Buildings”

Ken DozierFar West RTTC

11/07/01

Presentation

2 ETTC

“When the Rate of Change Outside is Greater Than the Rate of Change Inside, The End Is In Sight”

Jack Welch, Chairmen General Electric

The Future

3 ETTC

What is Knowledge ?

Truth Knowledge Belief

Universal

No Debate

Effect

Social

Converge on debate

Cause

Personal

Diverge on debate

Cause

10 Philosophical Mistakes (Adler 85)

4 ETTC

“where ... The ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons,computer in the the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and weigh only 1.5 tons”

- Popular Mechanics, 1949

“I predict the internet... Will go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse ”

- Bob Metcalfe, 3COM founder and inventor, 1995

“This ‘Telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us”

- Western Union, Internal memo, 1876

“The problem with television is that the peoplemust sit and keep their eyes glued on a screen; The average American family hasn’t time for it”

- New York Times, 1949

“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home”

- Ken Olson, president andfounder, Digital Equipment Corp., 1977

“Man will never reach the moon, regardless of all future scientific advances”Lee De Forest, Radio Pioneer, 1957

The Future

5 ETTC

“ According to Silicon Valley CEO’s, 60 % of the high-tech items they manufacture today did not exist 10 months ago”

Lon Hatamiya, Secretary - California Trade and Commerce Agency

Velocity

“Startups are now expected to go public within 6-18 months after venture investment”

Donna Jensen, Founder and CEO of startups.com

6 ETTC

Industry Clusters

– “Industry Cluster”: collections of competing and collaborating industries in a region networked into horizontal and vertical relationships, involving strong common buyer-supplier linkages, and relying on a shared foundation of specialized economic institutions. Because they are built around export-oriented firms, industry clusters bring new wealth into a region an help drive the regions economic growth.

Industry Cluster Electronic

Key Export Oriented Firms

Key Supplier Oriented Firms

Key Economic Infrastructure Providers

Consumer Electronic Assembly

Computer Hardware Assembly

Tool, Die & Machinery

Office & Production Supply

Specialized Component Supply

Education & Training Institutions

Physical Infrastructure Providers

Financial and Regulatory Institutions

(ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)

7 ETTC

Automotive

Aerospace/Defense

IndustrialMachinery

Transportation andDistribution

Financial Services

Tourism andRecreation

EducationalServices

Info/Media and Entertainment

Business Services

Health Services

Fashion, Apparel andTextiles

Home and LifestyleProducts

Agriculture andFood Processing

Bio-MedicalProducts

Electronics Machineryand Systems

Forest Products

Metals

ConstructionProducts

Energy andProcessMaterials

Industry Clusters (ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)

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Industry Clusters (ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1965)

9 ETTC

Industry Clusters (ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)

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194 0

-196

5

196 5

-199

0

199 0

-201

5Motion Pictures

AviationElectronics

Defense Aviation

AutomobileManufacturing

FoodProcessing

Agriculture

Theme Parks

Motion Pictures

Television

ComputerPeripherals

Defense Instruments

Commercial Aviation

MetalProducts

GeneralManufacturing

InformationProcessing

DefenseAerospace

Theme Parks/Tourism

Visual Media Production

Professional Services

Multimedia Technology

Engineering Services

Technology-Based

ManufacturingGeneral

Manufacturing

Information Processing

Business Services

The Evolution of Industry (ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)

11 ETTC

EZ and Incubator Spatial Distribution

12 ETTC

Traditional Entrepreneurship

• Typical Waterfall model• Six Stages

– basic research, development research, product and process ideas, prototype, production, diffusion

Sung 2001

• Criticisms– Too much focus on the solution “push”– basic research not the only initiator stage– relationship between research and commercialization

is too complex to be linear– Users are the key “pull” to the problems and markets

13 ETTC

New Non-Linear Model• 2001 study of startup companies across: Software

telecom (35%), Bio-med (19%), Computers (16%), and Semi-conductors (10.8%)

• Innovation: research (12%), development ( 22%), application stage (57%), production (9%)

• Age: Linear older ( 35-45), non linear (25-35)• Education: Linear more (28%P,42%M,30%B), Non

Linear (7.5%P, 22%M,67%B)• Experience: Linear narrower (59% research, 35%

commerce), Nonlinear (37% research, 29% commerce, 17% education)

• Both groups agreed on success factors: business plan, leadership, technical skills, management skills, and location

Sung 2001

14 ETTC

DevelopersDrivers

Gates “Microsoft” XeroxJobs “Apple” XeroxClark “SGI” E&S, StanfordClark “Netscape” University of

Illinois

The Non-Linear

15 ETTC

Make & Sell vs Sense & Respond

Incubators and Science Parks created to bridge gap between development and commercialization

Chart Source: Corporate Information Systems, Applegate

Venture: Niche markets,

public trading (pull)

Federal Agencies, SBIR: Mission Based, Linear (push) Universities: Curiosity Based, emerging, (push)

Chabol (large companies) hierarchy, products based, (push)

16 ETTC

Media Bandwidth Source: 1999 Fall Meeting, Community Development Council, Chuck MatthewsINFOWORLD, Sept. 2000

DSL/ Cable

IEEE 1394 / Firewire

Gigabit Ethernet

LASER / Fast Ethernet

10BaseT / CAT 5 Microwave /

Ethernet

G2 Wireless

G3 / Wireless LAN

ATM

G1 Wireless

17 ETTC

Smart Building Project

• The 6 packs• 4 Category 7 cable• 1 Fiber Optic• 1 Coax Cable

• Energy and Efficiency

Image courtesy of Johnson Controls

The connection point in each cubicle / office

• ATM to the desktop.• A coaxial and fiber optic connection for next

generation high-speed bandwidth requirements like streaming video and distributive computing.

• Additional Ethernet ports for multiple connection.

18 ETTC

Market Redefinition:Radical Change

Seven Organizational Change Propositions, Venkatraman 1994

19 ETTC

Solutions for Content Distribution

SatelliteCable

TerrestrialInternet

DSLWireless

IP Gateway

Encrypted IP

Content

Encryptor

20 ETTC

Security Solutions for Data Broadcasting

Network operation CenterContent Aggregator Rural Infrastructure

21 ETTC

Solutions for Digital Cinema

Picture StudiosIP Gateway

Encrypted IP

Encryptor

File ServersDigital Projector

22 ETTC

6-D Dimensions of Global Commerce

Demassification

Denationalization

Despacialization

Disintermediation

Disaggregation

Decentralization

Source: The Social Life of information, Brown & Duguild

23 ETTC

Global Competition

Source: The world Competitiveness Yearbook IMD International

• 3 Finland

• 4 Luxembourg

•5 Netherlands

•6 Hong Kong

•7 Ireland

•8 Sweden

•9 Canada

•10 Switzerland

24 ETTC

http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC

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