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This project is funded by the EU and implemented by a consortium led by MWH

EU Technical Assistance Facility (TAF)

for the Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All) Initiative

- Solar Corridor Support Programme -

Project funded by the European Union

EuropeAid/Development Cooperation Instrument

DCI-ENV/2013/335-152

This project is funded by the EU implemented by a consortium led by MWH

Objective, resources and implementation calendar

2

Objectives of the assignment:

– Analysis of the West Africa Solar Corridor and the required investments

under technical and economic considerations as part of the West Africa

Clean Energy Corridor (WACEC)

– Identification and specification of appropriate support measures

providing assistance to ECOWAS Member States in preparing and

implementing their solar electricity generation programmes with the

objective to speed-up the implementation process by removing barriers

and impediments.

Resources: In total 7 person-months

(energy planning, solar power systems, electricity networks, economics

and financing, institutional expert, GIS development)

Implementation calendar: Start: August 2016 / End: November 2016


for the Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All) Initiative - ENV/2013/335-152


Regional coverage

ECOWAS countries will be covered by the project work:

– Review of relevant solar technologies and framework conditions

– Solar zoning exercise

– Strategy and support programme

Solar corridor countries (Sahel / tropical region of Western

Africa with high potential for grid-connected solar power

plants):

– Regional strategy relevant grid-connected capacities

– Planning, implementation and back-up requirements

– Cost assessment and financing considerations

– Strategy and support programme

– Integration into the West African Clean Energy Corridor (WACEC):

Solar, hydro, wind, biomass

3


Scope of work: Part 1 – Solar corridor analysis and

accompanying technical and economic considerations

4

Solar electricity generation targets (AA)

Ongoing project development – implementation - operation

Scope of work of a “West Africa Solar Masterplan”

Solar technology mix

Assessment of technical and economic potential (GIS Zoning)

Reserve capacity requirements – management of intermittencies

Network development

Cost-estimate

Economic and financial considerations

Legal and institutional requirements




Scope of work: Part 2 – West Africa Solar

Corridor Support Programme

5

Implementation strategy for the corridor support programme – West African Clean Energy Corridors (WACEC): Solar, hydro, wind, biomass

– National Governments

– ECOWAS and specialized agencies

– International technical and financial cooperation

Guiding principles for the support programme

Corridor support programme components – GIS Zoning

– Planning and technical analyses

– Enabling environment

– Financing

– Capacity building

Integration into future cooperation initiatives (such as EU RIP)

…




Presentation of work in progress

6

Solar technologies

GIS development and zoning

Electricity planning – Case study Ghana

– Generation and reserve requirements

Economic and financial considerations

Enabling environment of investments in Solar PV/CSP

– Areas for Harmonization -




Solar technologies

7

Large-scale solar generation projects (PV and CSP) of regional

importance in the range from 20 to150 MW of special interest

for WAPP embedded in the transmission grids at voltage levels

above 50 kV

Decentralized solar generation projects integrated in the

distribution grids below 50 kV (only for PV below 10 MWp)

Stand-alone and non-interconnected systems such as: – Mini-grids for communities >30 km away from the grid

– Stand-alone systems for settlements with population density below 100 people

– Small solar home systems and solar powered appliances for dispersed people




GIS development and zoning (1)

8

Goal: to provide ECREEE with a set of tools, data and

maps as a support to the evaluation of potentialities for

development of RE in ECOWAS countries

Development of tools for GIS data processing:

– Exclusion areas

– Land suitability for PV on-grid, PV off-grid and CSP systems

– Technical Potential

– Computation of LCOE

The tools will allow to re-compute each map based on

different sets of exclusion criteria, thresholds, assumptions

and unit costs




GIS development and zoning (2)

9

Methodologies based on previous works carried out by

IRENA and by University of Geneva

All tools are going to be developed using open source

software

Set up of scenarios for different time horizons (2016, 2020

and 2030)




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11




12




13




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Energy planning – Case study Ghana (1)

15

Indicative work for Ghana is presented here and it is based on :

WAPP masterplan extended to 2030(WAPP-IRENA study)-

results for Ghana regarding electricity demand up to 2030, peak

load demand up to 2030

Solar energy penetration up to 2020 based on National

Renewable Energy Action Plan

Renewable Energy Master Plan for Ghana (in progress), Energy

Commission, for the period 2020-2030





16

The approach followed :

WAPP masterplan extended to 2030 is considered for electricity demand

and peak load demand

The masterplan is corrected by replacing conventional plants with the solar

plants foreseen in the National Renewable Energy Plans up to 2030

An aggregated assessment of the roadmap of the power system generation

technologies up to 2030 is derived including Ghana’s indicative contribution

for the solar corridor

Load following reserve is estimated for the year 2030 together with storage

requirements





17

Presentation of indicative results for the assessment of solar

systems penetration by 2030 :

Generation Mix including solar plants




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Ghana

Reference scenario Reference scenario + solar corridor

Grid connected Capacity 2015 2020 2025 2030 2015 2020 2025 2030

Biomass 0 0 793 1000 0 0 793 1000

Coal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Gas 1687 1687 1687 2832 1686 1686 1686 2724

Hydro 1386 1386 1386 1386 1386 1386 1386 1386

Oil 385 385 85 85 385 385 85 85

PV 10 10 10 10 17 200 345 500

Wind 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150

Solar Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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Ghana

Reference scenario Reference scenario + solar corridor

Grid electricity Production 2015 2020 2025 2030 2015 2020 2025 2030

Biomass 0 0 3478 4383 0 0 3478 4383

Coal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Gas 12725 10482 10509 16120 12719 10175 9963 15318

Hydro 3720 3720 3720 3720 3720 3720 3720 3720

Oil 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

PV 22 22 22 22 28 329 568 823

Wind 329 329 329 329 329 329 329 329

Solar Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Net Electricity Imports -2565 4027 6439 8057 -2565 4027 6439 8057

System Peak 2523 3030 3893 5153 2523 3030 3893 5153

2015 2020 2025 2030 2015 2020 2025 2030

Final Electricity Demand 12025 16473 21952 29519 12025 16473 21952 29519

Net Imports of electricity -2565 4027 6439 8057 -2565 4027 6439 8057



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Presentation of indicative results for the assessment of

intermittencies due to solar systems penetration by 2030:

1. Indicative requirements for fast reserve for load balancing

2. Indicative storage reserve requirements to avoid curtailment





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Indicative hourly reserve requirements for Ghana for the year 2030

Reserve Requirments 2030

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1 1001 2001 3001 4001 5001 6001 7001 8001

Time (hr)

Re

se

rve

(M

W)

Upward

Downward



22

storage reserve required is derived from the residual load curves and the thermal minimum of thermal plants



Monthly residual load curves of electricity demand in Ghana after excluding PV

generation(convolution of PV generation curves) and imports for the year 2030

Residual Load (No Imports Inc) 2030

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Time (hr)

Lo

ad

(M

W)

January

March

June

September



23

Overall planning approach :

Areas derived from the zoning work have low LCOEs and they are close to

Load centres to minimize the grid construction costs

Areas chosen from the zoning work correspond to the generation capacity

included in the generation roadmap derived from the combination of the

WAPP masterplan with the solar penetration of the NREAPs

Evaluation of the needs for reserves for balancing and storage will be

performed

Evaluation of the existing grid expansion programme to assess whether or

not the power flows that correspond to the solar corridor can be transmitted

by the foreseen grid will be performed




Economic and financial considerations (1)

24

Economic and financial approach is based on the following

issues:

– Specific inputs:

• Installed capacity for each country (MWp/country)

• Investment schedule for each country – CAPEX (Eur/year/country)

• Annual energy production per country (MWh/year/country)

• Annual full operational hours (specific for each country or site)

• Capacity factor (estimated as number of full operational hours/8760)

• Discounting rate: 10%

• Electricity own consumption (MWh/year/country)

• Current price of electricity per each country (Eur/MWh)

• CPI (Cost Price Index) for Solar corridor countries





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Economic and financial approach (cont.)

– All calculations will be performed in Eur, without VAT

– Operational Costs estimation – OPEX – general assumptions:

• Operating costs incl. salaries: 10-18 Eur/KWp

• Energy own consumption (Eur/year)

• Insurance premium: 0.3% of the investment value

• Spare parts: 0.25% of the investment value

• Land lease: 0.0 Eur/year

• Commercial management: 1.0 Eur/kWp

• Administrative expenses: 3% of operating costs

– Linear constant depreciation (20 years lifetime)

– Financial costs – depending on the financial scheme





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Economic and financial approach (cont.)

– Estimation of the optimal funding scheme

• Equity

• Subsidies

• Grants

• Loans from different sources (commercial banks, WB, EIB, AfDB etc)

– Minim ROE = 15%; Minim DSCR = 1.1

– Estimation of unitary cost (Eur/MWh) per country

– Estimation and comparison of LCOE (related to each country)

Financial risk assessment

– Risk matrix and Risk Control Plan




Enabling environment of investments in

Solar PV/CSP – Areas for Harmonization -

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Policy, planning and legislation • Policy and Panning

• Legal and Regulatory Framework

• State Support

Licensing and procurement procedure • IPP and PPP Frameworks

• Procurement Procedure

• Licenses and Permits Regime

• Tariffs Methodology

Technical standards • Equipment Manufacture/Import

• Codes

Model contracts • PPAs

• Connection Agreements

• Transmission Service Agreements

Dispute resolution • Internal Dispute Procedure

• Appeals Process




Many thanks for your attention!

Martin Ehrlich

EU TAF Key-expert ([email protected])

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