eugenijus ušpuras lithuanian energy institute lithuanian research activities in energy security
TRANSCRIPT
Eugenijus Ušpuras
Lithuanian Energy Institute
Lithuanian Research Lithuanian Research Activities in Energy Activities in Energy
SecuritySecurity
Content
1. Energy security (research) institutions
2. Energy security research in Lithuania
3. Security of Energy Supply
4. Security of Energy Infrastructures
Energy security (research) institutions
Lithuanian Energy Institute (established in 1956)
Energy Security Research Centre – founded by Vytautas Magnus University (VMU) and Lithuanian Energy Institute (LEI) in 2008
NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence, established on 10 July 2012 (previously – Energy Security Center under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Lithuania)
Other institutions
Energy security research in Lithuania (1)
Ignalina NPP. Lithuanian Energy Institute (LEI)
(Risk analysis, Accidents analysis);
Lithuanian Energy Strategy (1999; 2002; 2005: 2007);
Special Studies (e.g. Ignalina NPP decommissioning impact to Lithuanian economic security after 2010).
Energy security research in Lithuania (2)
State funded research project Development of methodologies of Security and Reliability Assessment of Energy Supply to Lithuania (2006-2008; 2009-2011).
Research Council of Lithuania funded National research programme Future Energy project Development of Methodology for Energy Security Analysis and Integrated Security Level Assessment (2010 – 2011).
Energy security research in Lithuania (3)
Research Council of Lithuania funded National research programme Future Energy project Development of Methodology for Optimal Integration of Future Technologies into Energy Sector (2011-2012).
Research Council of Lithuania funded National research programme Future Energy project Investigation of Lithuanian energy security and energy security level assessment (2012-2014).
Energy security research in Lithuania (4)
7FP project Security of Energy Considering Its Uncertainty, Risk and Economic Implications (SECURE) (2008-2010). The project developed appropriate tools for evaluating the vulnerability of the EU to the different energy supply risks, and for promoting the optimization of EU energy insecurity mitigation strategies, including investment, demand side management and dialogue with producing countries.
SECURE partners from France, Italy, Denmark, Lithuania (LEI), JRC, Germany, Switzerland, Russian Federation, UK, Belgium, Austria.
Energy security research in Lithuania (5)
Leonardo da Vinci programme project European energy supply security management coordinators UNDER way towards STANDard indicators for continuous vocational education and training (UNDERSTAND) (2006-2008).
UNDERSTAND is a pilot training project which is intended for the emergency planners and emergency operators of the European energy supply, transmission system operators (TSOs) in particular.
UNDERSTAND partners from Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Czech Republic, Lithuania (LEI), UK, Italy, Slovak Republic
Energy security research we could divide into two branches:
Security of Energy Supply
Security of Energy Infrastructures
Security of Energy Supply
Assessment of Security of Energy Supply
Different approaches are used for assessing security of energy supply in Lithuanian Energy Institute:
•economical modelling (MESSAGE model), •disturbances impact to the energy system assessment employing probabilistic and deterministic models•development of security indicators system for the assessment of energy security level.
Lithuanian electricity system model
Lithuanian electricity system
Lithuanian district heating system
Poland, (ENTSO-E)
Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Russia
Sweden(Nordpool)
Belarus,Russia(IPS/UPS)
Kaliningrad(IPS/UPS)
Diagram of renewable energy sources flow
Economical modellingMESSAGE MODEL• model is designed for planning energy sector in long perspective, where could be predictable technological process;• optimization function is minimization of costs of energy system during the considered period.•Using model it is possible to assess and compare different energy development strategies, alternatives of using different energy resources or new energy technologies. •Applying sensitivity analysis it is possible to investigate the influence of particular indicators to functioning of energy system. Results: • costs of energy production, then exits limitations of: primary energy resources, environment, policy.
Scheme of Energy security assessment methodology
Analysis of threats of energy system
Investigation of disturbances development
Disturbed energy system modelling by
Probabilistic models
Disturbed energy system modelling by
Economic models
Energy security indicators
Technical, economic and sociopolitical information
Analysis of energy security level
Conclusions
Results of energy security analysis
Recommendations
Probabilistic Energy Security Analysis
Threats
Natural
Economical
Sociopolitical
Terrorism
Barriers
Auxiliary systems
Safety systems
Physical protection
Diversification
Long term agreements
Diplomacy
Generators,power
distributionand
power supply
networks, storages, suppliers, consumers.
Energysystem
War conflicts
Consequences mitigation
Consequences
Emergency plans
Warning system
Evacuation
Deactivation
First-aid
Human lifes
Damages of
infrastructure
Economicallosses
Sociopolitical
disturbances
Assessment of Energy Security Level Steps:
• Description of energy security indicators;• Grouping of indicators to different blocks; • Estimation of critical and precritical values of security
indicators;• Assessment of weights for indicators and blocks of indicators; • Performance of sensitivity analysis of indicators in critical
situations; • Setting of indicators correlations matrix;• Setting of functional systems and equations, which consists
parameters energy security of supply;• Calculation of energy security level.
Creation of a Security of Supply Index
Export share of production
External Suppliers
Border crossings
Reserves / consumption
Country risk to border
Replaceable share of gas
Production share of consumption
LNG terminals
National storages
Security of Supply
Import pipelines
Offshore pipelines risk
• Index allows for country specific characteristics • Allows for assessment of SoS impact of new investments and policies • Allows for analysis of scenarios
SECURE - NATURAL GAS STAKEHOLDER MEETING
Ramboll Oil & Gasas.com Stefan Schaar Kruse Senior Economist
Security of Supply in the EU – Risk and Impact
Low impact –Low SoS High impact –Low SoS
Low impact –High SoS High impact –High SoS
Low SoS
High SoS
• Swiden • Finland
Low impact High Impact
Security of energy supply is assessed by analysing various energy system development scenarios
For example, just revising the last energy strategy more than 70 different development scenarios were analysed
All scenarios energy production price with various restrictions taking into account energy security were taken into account
Analysed energy system development scenarios
Analysed scenarios were grouped in the following group:
Group of scenarios with various restrictions to the electricity import
Flexible non-nuclear scenarios without nuclear power plant
Scenarios with new nuclear power plant
Energy security level of analysed scenarios
Economic analysis showed that scenarios with nuclear energy and restricted electricity import has slightly higher energy price
Assessing energy security as price increase and system resistance to possible perturbations, we can state that scenarios nuclear energy has higher energy security level
Security of Energy Infrastructures
Two approaches are used:
Deterministic
Probabilistic
The solution of the infrastructure security problem is consisting of two parts:
1. Identification of the critical elements of the infrastructure, the development of security plans.
2. The analysis and assessment of infrastructure criticality.
Scheme of energy infrastructure
Scheme of energy infrastructure (Lithuanian case)
Probabilistic Assessment of Critical Infrastructures
Reliability and Security Assessment of Lithuanian Power Transmission System.
Risk analysis of petroltransportation by trucks through Lithuanian roads
Probabilistic Assessment of Kaunas Hydropower System
Kaunas hydropower plant (KHP)
Kruonis hydro pump storage power plant (KHSP)
KHP dam
Flooding zone
Analysis of Aircraft Crash
Structural response, Global level.
Structural response, Semi-global level.
Structural response, Local level.
Fire analysis.
Global Analysis of Aircraft Crash
Concluding remarks In Lithuania we have developed and approved
methodology for energy security analysis Energy security assessment is significant only
when it is compared with other countries or regions. For that reason unified understanding of energy security and usage of the common methodology should be implemented
Methodologies developed in Lithuania could be a good starting point at least in Baltic States to introduce unified energy security assessment concept. That would enable to assess separate projects and entire situation.
Concluding remarks
Despite the fact that research in the field of energy security is performed in Lithuania, further collaboration and integration of efforts in this field should be accomplished in Baltic Sea region and entire Europe.
