EUROCONTROL ETS Support Facilitiesand Fuel Estimator tool

Antonio Astorino

Objectives

• Present • Eurocontrol • Eurocontrol Fuel Estimator (Small emitters tool) • Eurocontrol Support Facility for ETS aviation’s

Stakeholders (Reporting Monitoring and Verification)

• States/Competent Authorities

• Aircraft operators

• ETS-SF architecture and data provider services• Monitoring, Reporting and Verification process support

What is Eurocontrol ?

• Public International Organisation

• Not an institution of the EU

• 49 years of existence

• 2000+ persons staff specialised in Aviation

• Multi-projects Organisation

EUROCONTROL and the EU

•

What Eurocontrol is doing ? : Coordination Body

• Pan-European Technical and operational « Coordination » body between :

• a) Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSP) and Civil Aviation Authorities (CAA) through Europe

• b) Telecommunications and transport National agencies and ministers through Europe

• c) Aircraft Operators (AO) as well as their associations (IATA, ERA, EBAA, IAOPA…..)

• d) Military and NATO• e) European Commission & Agencies – EASA, ESA• f) ICAO EUR NAT and Montreal, FAA (USA)• g) Standardisation bodies• ARINC/EUROCAE/ETSI• g) Industry partners

• Airframe manufacturers ,Engine manufacturers• Aircraft on board systems, ATC systems

What Eurocontrol is doing ? Manages and Operates

• Manages pan-European Air Traffic Management (ATM) Implementation programs and defines ATM standards

• Operates pan-European ATM functions at every seconds

• - Central Flow Management Unit (CFMU)

- - MAASTRICH upper airspace control centre

- - Central Route Charge Office (CRCO)

What are ENV activities in Eurocontrol ?

• ETS-SF, for CAs and AOs and Verifiers• Fuel estimator for ETS• ELSO, list publication for European Commission• Historical Emissions for CO2 CAP aviation

• Others related modelling activities for NOISE, Advance Emissions model

• Main partners • EC & MS & CAs & Compliance Forum• ICAO/CAEP WGs• AOs and Verifiers

• Support to Regulation and research (1x staff)

ETS Aviation process is complex

• More than 35xx AOs to report to EU ETS• 5xx Regular AOs • 3xxx Small Emitters

• AC/Airframes NB in Europe approx 14xxx• 1 Aircraft = 1 installation• No other alternative energy than Fossil Fuel

• 27/30 States, +3 CAs Norway, Lichen, Iceland

• MS are responsible for emissions of Administered AO for flights outside their own Airspace (8.000.000 flights/year)• Impossible for States to “control” ETS unless help from

Eurocontrol

ETS Aviation process is dynamic

• At any time Aircrafts change owner/AO• At any time ETS concerned parties/stakeholders change

also• 300 changes in AO status per year in CRCO• More States in Future as EU30 or more• AO new entrants in ETS every year• AO at edge of de-minimis (2xxx AOs) thresholds

• potential new entrants next years

EUROCONTROL offers support to ALL ETS Stakeholders

ETS-SF Sys. Architecture

Data Workspace

for ETS

+ETS Data• Exemptions• Fuel Estimate• C02 Estimate

FlightsFlightsY + Y-1Y + Y-1

Production ofETS Specific Data

viaFuel estimator

& Exemptions Identification

(5,7, Commercial)&

Geo. Scope&

AO attribution (Fleet list and CA feedback)

AO-SE

AirspaceAirspace

Exemp-Exemp-tionstions

CA

Support AO’s VerificationCSV file all flights detailed

Report for AOsAggregated, XLS file Report for States

Aggregated XLS file

MonitoringMonitoring

AO AO Admin Admin

data Hist.data Hist.

AO AO FleetsFleetsHist.Hist.

CRCO NATIVE DATA

CRCO Data extractsmonthly

Archives ALL ETS workspace regularlyLatvia, Estonia,

UPR, Iceland

Flight LENGHT(3)CFMU

ELSO*dataupdates

AO-SE

* Eurocontrol List Support Office

Background FUEL ESTIMATOR– Fuel Burn Data Acquisition in 2009

• Request for cooperation from EUROCONTROL’s Director General on 11 February 2009 to Air Transport Associations

• First data set received in March 2009

• Last data set received week of 2 June 2009

• Most data received late May 2009

Emissions Estimation Methodology

•ANCAT (Abatement of Nuisances Caused by Air Transport) also known as EMEP/CORINAIR

•Recommended by ECAC: “ECAC Member States should calculate the emissions of aviation as accurately as possible using ANCAT method number three as described in the Guidance Material” (ECAC 27/3, 8-9 July 2003)•http://reports.eea.europa.eu/EMEPCORINAIR5/en/page002.html

A320 Standard flight distances (nm) [1nm = 1.852 km] 125 250 500 750 1000 1500 2000 2500 Distance (km) Climb/cruise/descent 232 463.048 926 1389 1852 2778 3704 4630

Fuel (kg) Flight total 1644.4 2497.3 3660.6 4705.0 6027.2 8332.0 10865.9 13441.3 LTO 802.3 802.3 802.3 802.3 802.3 802.3 802.3 802.3 Taxi out 167.3 167.3 167.3 167.3 167.3 167.3 167.3 167.3 Take off 89.9 89.9 89.9 89.9 89.9 89.9 89.9 89.9 Climb out 232.5 232.5 232.5 232.5 232.5 232.5 232.5 232.5 Approach landing 145.4 145.4 145.4 145.4 145.4 145.4 145.4 145.4 Taxi in 167.3 167.3 167.3 167.3 167.3 167.3 167.3 167.3

Climb/cruise/descent 842.1 1695.0 2858.3 3902.7 5224.9 7529.7 10063.6 12638.9

ANCAT 3 – EMEP/CORINAIRInput & Output Data

EmissionsEmissions Flown DistanceFlown Distance ))Generic Aircraft TypeGeneric Aircraft Type(( ,,==

CFMU Based Actual Route Length

Fuel Burn Influencing Factors, ANCAT, Best Available Data

Main factors influencing fuel burn of ONE flight

• Mass of Aircraft during flight• PAX (0-10%, EBAA example)• Fuel (40%)

• Tank management Strategy• Jet or turbo prop

• Airframe (50%)• Distance (no height effects)

• GCD (+95km)• Actual (radar tracks)

• Time• Meteo• ATM (LTO, stacks,,rerouting)• Cost Index (business type)

• Cumulated effect : two “identical” flight, same ADES ADEP, same distance, same aircraft type could vary +/- 40%

Fuel Burn Data Samples (1)

• 23 aircraft operators:• European business aviation• European legacy carriers• European leisure carriers• European low fares carriers• European regional carriers• Non-European legacy carriers from the following continents:

Africa, Asia, and North America

• Each aircraft operator provided data for one or more months for 2004, 2005 and/or 2006.Few provided data for periods relating to2007 or 2008

Fuel Burn Data Samples (2)

• Data for 59 aircraft types, covering both jet and turbo-prop aircraft.

• For 54 of them, the sample data has been deemed valid.

• The remaining 5 aircraft types were discarded because of insufficient sample data

2004 2005 2006

92.2% 92.6% 93.0%

Fuel Burn Dispersion

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

600 650 700 750 800 850 900

AO_FUEL_EGLL_LPPR AO_FUEL_EDDF_ESSA AO_FUEL_LKPR_UKBB

A320 Fuel Burn Distribution

A320 Fuel Burn Distribution with Fit

B744 Fuel Burn Distribution

B744 Fuel Burn Distribution with Fit

Methodology after Reconciliation (1)

• AO SAMPLE• If sample data then use new fit

• AO EQV• If aircraft of same type of a sample (e.g. RJ70 vs. RJ1H)

then use sample new fit with correction factor based on MTOW ratio

Methodology after Reconciliation (2)

• ANCAT with new delta factor• If aircraft in ANCAT but not in sample, use ANCAT data

with a delta factor based on difference between ANCAT aircraft family regression and sample aircraft family regression

Heavy Jet

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000

MTOM

FUE

L/N

M

Methodology after Reconciliation (3)

• REGRESSION• If neither of the previous, then use average fuel per nautical

mile based on model from sample aircraft family regression

Heavy Jet

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000

MTOM

FU

EL

/NM

X

Fuel Burn Statistics

Intra EU27 Non Intra EU27 TotalDistance: Actual VS Great Circle 10.6% 5.0% 7.4%ANCAT Fuel: Actual VS Great Circle 7.6% 4.9% 5.7%AO Based Model Fuel: Actual VS ANCAT GC 9.0% 7.6% 8.0%AO Based Model Fuel: Actual VS ANCAT Actual 1.3% 2.6% 2.2%AO Based Model Fuel: Actual VS Great Circle 7.7% 4.4% 5.4%

Airport Coverage Representativeness

Weigth AC_TYPEARR in TOP10 EU27 AP

ARR in OTHER AP MVTS % Busy % Non Busy % Busy % Non Busy

ARR in TOP10 EU27 AP

ARR in OTHER AP Mvt

19.8% B744 3,409 3,954 7,363 46% 54% 43% 57% 5,497 7,236 12,733 8.3% B772 4,557 4,853 9,410 48% 52% 45% 55% 4,163 5,007 9,170 6.9% B763 1,809 2,941 4,750 38% 62% 35% 65% 4,445 8,242 12,687 6.2% A320 20,506 35,352 55,858 37% 63% 33% 67% 24,951 50,052 75,003 5.7% A343 2,626 4,367 6,993 38% 62% 46% 54% 2,803 3,336 6,139 4.9% B738 1,656 13,487 15,143 11% 89% 14% 86% 7,188 45,040 52,228 3.5% A332 883 1,589 2,472 36% 64% 29% 71% 1,800 4,319 6,119 3.5% B752 1,425 11,710 13,135 11% 89% 24% 76% 5,141 15,955 21,096 3.2% MD11 647 3,055 3,702 17% 83% 33% 67% 1,231 2,450 3,681 3.0% B742 159 164 323 49% 51% 26% 74% 673 1,916 2,589 2.7% A321 12,654 22,030 34,684 36% 64% 37% 63% 10,333 17,353 27,686 2.6% A319 27,822 83,492 111,314 25% 75% 30% 70% 13,007 30,557 43,564 2.4% B733 7,230 10,522 17,752 41% 59% 23% 77% 8,497 28,516 37,013 2.4% A333 565 563 1,128 50% 50% 31% 69% 1,139 2,505 3,644 1.9% A346 600 594 1,194 50% 50% 50% 50% 677 674 1,351 1.8% B734 6,684 28,848 35,532 19% 81% 25% 75% 5,694 17,399 23,093 1.5% MD82 19 5,195 5,214 0% 100% 31% 69% 7,325 16,128 23,453 1.4% B735 12,670 46,768 59,438 21% 79% 32% 68% 7,305 15,749 23,054 1.3% B737 2,268 7,281 9,549 24% 76% 17% 83% 2,910 14,106 17,016 1.3% A310 267 5,710 5,977 4% 96% 22% 78% 828 2,984 3,812 1.2% B762 402 821 1,223 33% 67% 22% 78% 657 2,364 3,021

Sep-05in Sample

Airport Pairs from AO Sample

Confidence Intervals of Eurocontrol Fuel (and CO2) estimator(Based on a confidence level of 99.5%)

•A confidence level of 99.5% with a confidence interval of 1.5% means that by estimating the CO2 emissions using another data sample of the same size, there is a probability of 99.5% that the newly estimated CO2 emissions are within ±1.5% of the previously calculated CO2 emissions

2

222

ityperegiancateqvsample errerrerrerr

2004 2005 2006

Cluster CO2 share

Confidence Interval

CO2 share

Confidence Interval

CO2 share

Confidence Interval

SAMPLE 92.2% 0.02% 92.6% 0.02% 93.0% 0.02%

EQV 4.6% 0.10% 4.6% 0.10% 4.8% 0.10%

ANCAT 1.6% 0.29% 1.5% 0.30% 1.0% 0.33%

REGRESSION 1.5% 26.49% 1.3% 25.36% 1.2% 21.87%

TOTAL 100.0% 0.41% 100.0% 0.34% 100.0% 0.27%

Eurocontrol Fuel Estimator = Small emitters tool

• Same algorithm as standalone tool is used in ETS-SF and in the Generated AER and CSV reports & files• also used in calculation of Historical Emissions at EC request

(coherency)

• Is a STATISTICAL tool, very good estimator performances IF :• Applied to Multiple flights records

• More flight more accurate aggregated (sum) CO2• CAP example (8.000.000 flights)

• Aircraft types in use in AO fleet • If all fleet in Regression model aircraft types, increased

uncertainties on Fuel and CO2 estimates• Mixed fleet (sample and regression), better accuracy

Fuel Estimator feedback from Airlines

• comments (major airline) CO2 estimates is very accurate• comments on Fuel over-estimates considerable for some

Aircraft types (147 Jets concerned) • Minor ‘advantage’ in the CAP work • As a statistical tool, the tool also under-estimate fuel

and CO2 in some cases (turbo prop) but no comments received so far, silent majority ?

Small emitters tools Next STEPS

• => by the end of 2011 at the latest more accurate models of some aircrafts types, Fuel and CO2 estimated values in AER and CSV files more reliable !• Regression model Class improvement

• 3 (or 4) sub class and not one • Reduction of Fuel and CO2 estimates by 23% in

average for 147 Jets Aircraft Types concerned (min 20 to max 40%)

• Gathering additional actual fuel burn from AOs• many contribution, actual fuel data, received since few

months

Contributing to EMEP/CORINAIR-ANCAT

• Fuel modelling are available (and will be improved)

• Linear parameters by Aircraft types will be published on a regular basis by Eurocontrol

• Eurocontrol will propose a complementary methodology to be an input to the review of ANCAT/Emep-Corinair in coordination with JRC ISPRA

• Specificities :

• CO2 only

• “Specific” LTO concept (intercept at distance 0) hardly differentiable from cruise

Questions ?

• Thank you

• Contacts : • Fuel model update

• antonio.astorino@eurocontrol.int

• ETS-SF project manager• Stefano.mancini@eurocontrol.int

Acronyms

• AER Annual Emission Reports• AO Aircraft Operator• AC Aircraft• ATM Air Traffic Management• CA Competent Authority• CFMU Central Flow Management Unit• CRCO Central Route Charge Office• ETS : Emission Trading Scheme (as per Directive xx and related legislation MRV, interpretation

etc…)• EC European Commission• EEA European Economic Area• ENV Environment• ELSO Eurocontrol List Support Office (in relation with AO-MS List published in June by EC)• ETS-SF ETS Support facility • EURO Eurocontrol• LEN3 Route Length Model 3 as from Flight Plan corrected when significant deviations• MRV Monitoring Reporting and Verifications• MS Member State• SE Small Emitters• SES Single European Sky• SESAR Single European Sky ATM Research • TKR Tonnes Kilometres Reports• XML Extensible Markup Language