eurofins scientific a) · source: company data, goldman sachs research estimates. see disclosures...

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Key Data __________________________________ GS Forecast ________________________________ GS Factor Profile ____________________________ Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details. Market cap: €7.1bn / $8.1bn Enterprise value: €11.3bn / $12.8bn 3m ADTV: €16.9mn / $18.7mn France Europe Business Services M&A Rank: 2 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes Pan Europe Conviction List 12/19 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E Revenue (€ mn) New 4,562.8 4,843.5 5,134.2 5,442.2 Revenue (€ mn) Old 4,576.9 4,856.1 5,147.5 5,456.4 EBITA (€ mn) 469.3 628.1 736.0 816.8 EPS (€) New 11.12 18.78 23.24 26.68 EPS (€) Old 14.29 20.25 22.56 25.31 EV/EBITDA (X) 13.3 11.2 9.7 8.6 P/E (X) 36.1 22.1 17.9 15.6 Dividend yield (%) 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 CROCI (%) 8.6 10.5 11.4 12.0 12/19 6/20E 12/20E 6/21E EPS (€) 4.94 7.92 10.85 8.93 EUFI.PA relative to Europe Coverage EUFI.PA relative to Europe Business Services Growth Financial Returns Multiple Integrated Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th We remain Buy on Eurofins (on CL) with a 12m price target of €640 following FY19 results that were impacted by a cyber attack in June, yet showed revenue recovery back to 5%+ organic growth levels in 2H19. Going into 2020 we believe Eurofins remains well-positioned to deliver over 5% organic growth through its leadership in Food, Pharma, Environment end markets with specialized Clinical Diagnostics (especially Trugraf) offering scope for further acceleration. The company is guiding for improved underlying margins in 2020 (+50bp yoy) & 2021 (+100bp yoy), lower SDI’s and stable net capex, and with our expectation for normalized working capital outflows, we forecast a strong ramp in free cash generation which should support de-leveraging and drive further re-rating. Virus may lead to additional testing: While the coronavirus has resulted in estimate downgrades at other testers due to their exposure to China (15-20% of revenues), we see limited impact for Eurofins (c.3% exposure to China, Italy, South Korea). Further with the company helping governments globally test people for the virus, we think this could lead to potential incremental revenue from additional testing. Delivering normalized FCF remains the key: We believe a key concern in the market is on underlying cash generation potential through lower capex/sales while maintaining 5% organic revenue growth. While Eurofins did deliver on lower capex last year, revenue and profit growth was impacted by the cyber attack, thus hitting FCF. Hence we think some of the market concerns on cash still remain and believe delivery and execution by management this year will be important to allay these concerns. We estimate FCF to equity to improve to €345m in 2020 from €92m in 2019 driving leverage down to 3.9x net debt/EBITDA (including hybrid) in 2020 from 5.0x. EUFI.PA 12m Price Target: €640.00 Price: €415.60 Upside: 54.0% Eurofins Scientific (EUFI.PA) FY19: On track for strong organic growth with improved margins and FCF; virus may lead to more testing; Buy (on CL) 10 March 2020 | 8:37PM GMT Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html . Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. Suhasini Varanasi +44(20)7774-3722 | [email protected] Goldman Sachs International Matija Gergolet +44(20)7774-3023 | [email protected] Goldman Sachs International Vatsala Jain +1(212)934-8901 | [email protected] Goldman Sachs India SPL David Peat +44(20)7552-2834 | [email protected] Goldman Sachs International Buy CL For the exclusive use of [email protected] 899090598d5d440bb323bf39d81f822a

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Page 1: Eurofins Scientific A) · Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details. Market cap: €7.1bn / $8.1bn Enterprise value: €11.3bn / $12.8bn

Key Data __________________________________

GS Forecast ________________________________

GS Factor Profile ____________________________

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.

See disclosures for details.

Marketcap:€7.1bn/$8.1bn

Enterprisevalue:€11.3bn/$12.8bn

3mADTV:€16.9mn/$18.7mn

France

EuropeBusinessServices

M&ARank:2

Leasesincl.innetdebt&EV?:Yes

PanEuropeConvictionList

12/19 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

Revenue(€mn)New 4,562.8 4,843.5 5,134.2 5,442.2

Revenue(€mn)Old 4,576.9 4,856.1 5,147.5 5,456.4

EBITA(€mn) 469.3 628.1 736.0 816.8

EPS(€)New 11.12 18.78 23.24 26.68

EPS(€)Old 14.29 20.25 22.56 25.31

EV/EBITDA(X) 13.3 11.2 9.7 8.6

P/E(X) 36.1 22.1 17.9 15.6

Dividendyield(%) 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1

CROCI(%) 8.6 10.5 11.4 12.0

12/19 6/20E 12/20E 6/21E

EPS(€) 4.94 7.92 10.85 8.93

EUFI.PArelativetoEuropeCoverage

EUFI.PArelativetoEuropeBus inessServices

Growth

FinancialReturns

Multiple

Integrated

Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th

We remain Buy on Eurofins (on CL) with a 12m price target of €640 following FY19 results that were impacted by a cyber attack in June, yet showed revenue recovery back to 5%+ organic growth levels in 2H19. Going into 2020 we believe Eurofins remains well-positioned to deliver over 5% organic growth through its leadership in Food, Pharma, Environment end markets with specialized Clinical Diagnostics (especially Trugraf) offering scope for further acceleration. The company is guiding for improved underlying margins in 2020 (+50bp yoy) & 2021 (+100bp yoy), lower SDI’s and stable net capex, and with our expectation for normalized working capital outflows, we forecast a strong ramp in free cash generation which should support de-leveraging and drive further re-rating.

Virus may lead to additional testing: While the coronavirus has resulted in estimate downgrades at other testers due to their exposure to China (15-20% of revenues), we see limited impact for Eurofins (c.3% exposure to China, Italy, South Korea). Further with the company helping governments globally test people for the virus, we think this could lead to potential incremental revenue from additional testing.

Delivering normalized FCF remains the key: We believe a key concern in the market is on underlying cash generation potential through lower capex/sales while maintaining 5% organic revenue growth. While Eurofins did deliver on lower capex last year, revenue and profit growth was impacted by the cyber attack, thus hitting FCF. Hence we think some of the market concerns on cash still remain and believe delivery and execution by management this year will be important to allay these concerns. We estimate FCF to equity to improve to €345m in 2020 from €92m in 2019 driving leverage down to 3.9x net debt/EBITDA (including hybrid) in 2020 from 5.0x.

EUFI.PA 12mPriceTarget:€640.00 Price:€415.60 Upside:54.0%

Eurofins Scientific (EUFI.PA)

FY19: On track for strong organic growth with improved margins and FCF; virus may lead to more testing; Buy (on CL)

10 March 2020 | 8:37PM GMT

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.

Suhasini Varanasi +44(20)7774-3722 | [email protected] Goldman Sachs International

Matija Gergolet +44(20)7774-3023 | [email protected] Goldman Sachs International

Vatsala Jain +1(212)934-8901 | [email protected] Goldman Sachs India SPL

David Peat +44(20)7552-2834 | [email protected] Goldman Sachs International

Buy

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Page 2: Eurofins Scientific A) · Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details. Market cap: €7.1bn / $8.1bn Enterprise value: €11.3bn / $12.8bn

Ratios & Valuation _______________________________________

Growth & Margins (%) ____________________________________

Price Performance _______________________________________

Source: FactSet. Price as of 9 Mar 2020 close.

Income Statement (€ mn) __________________________________

12/19 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

EV/sales(X) 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.0

EV/EBITDAR(X) 13.3 11.2 9.7 8.6

EV/EBITA(b.gw)(X) 24.8 18.6 15.5 13.5

P/E(X) 36.1 22.1 17.9 15.6

P/B(X) 3.2 2.6 2.4 2.3

EV/GCI(X) 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2

Goodwilladj.CROCI(%) -- -- -- --

Netdebt(€mn) 4,347.0 4,097.5 3,764.4 3,380.2

Netdebt/EBITDA(X) 3.8 2.9 2.3 2.0

EBITinterestcover(X) 6.0 8.6 10.1 11.3

FCFcoverofdividends(X) 1.5 5.1 5.8 6.0

Workingcap./sales(X) 10.5 16.1 22.8 24.2

Capex/D&A(%) 70.1 64.9 64.1 65.4

Capex/sales(X) 9.3 8.3 8.1 8.1

12/19 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

Totalrevenuegrowth 20.7 6.2 6.0 6.0

Organicsalesgrowth 3.6 5.5 6.0 6.0

EBITAgrowth 7.6 30.8 15.6 10.1

EPSgrowth (14.1) 68.9 23.8 14.8

DPSgrowth 19.8 10.0 10.0 10.0

EBITAmargin 11.6 14.3 15.6 16.2

EUFI.PA(€) FTSEWorldEurope(EUR)

Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20

300

350

400

450

500

550

440

460

480

500

520

540

3m 6m 12m

Absolute (16.2)% 1.8% 11.1%

Rel.totheFTSEWorldEurope(EUR) (7.0)% 7.6% 13.1%

12/19 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

Totalrevenue 4,562.8 4,843.5 5,134.2 5,442.2

Totaloperatingexpenses (3,660.8) (3,798.1) (3,960.1) (4,165.5)

Otheroperatinginc./(exp.) (36.8) (6.5) (6.5) (6.5)

EBITDA 865.2 1,038.9 1,167.5 1,270.2

Depreciation (337.2) (348.1) (368.8) (390.7)

Amortisation (58.7) (62.7) (62.7) (62.7)

EBITA(beforegoodwill) 469.3 628.1 736.0 816.8

Netinterestinc./(exp.) (95.7) (93.4) (94.2) (95.5)

Income/(loss)fromassociates 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7

Totalothernet -- -- -- --

Pre-taxprofit 374.2 535.3 642.5 722.0

Provisionfortaxes (116.9) (146.9) (168.3) (187.9)

Minorityinterest (0.9) (1.0) (1.0) (1.1)

Preferreddividends (49.7) (36.3) (36.3) (28.8)

Netinc.(pre-exceptionals) 206.7 351.1 436.9 504.3

Goodwillamortisation (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0)

Post-taxexceptionals (61.3) (95.9) (93.8) (96.5)

Netinc.(post-exceptionals) 145.5 255.2 343.1 407.8

EPS(basic,pre-except)(€) 11.61 19.62 24.27 27.86

EPS(basic,post-except)(€) 8.17 14.26 19.06 22.53

Wtdavgsharesout.(basic)(mn) 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.1

Taxrate(%) 31.2 27.4 26.2 26.0

Commondividendsdeclared 61.4 67.9 75.1 83.1

DPS(€) 3.45 3.80 4.17 4.59

Div.payoutratio(%) 29.7 19.3 17.2 16.5

10 March 2020 2

Goldman Sachs

Balance Sheet (€ mn) _____________________________________

Cash Flow (€ mn) ________________________________________

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.

12/19 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

Cash&cashequivalents 297.0 581.2 948.4 1,066.5

Accountsreceivable 1,001.2 1,061.6 1,125.3 1,192.8

Inventory 79.3 84.2 89.2 94.6

Othercurrentassets 226.7 226.7 226.7 226.7

Totalcurrentassets 1,604.2 1,953.7 2,389.6 2,580.6

NetPP&E 1,593.5 1,689.5 1,776.0 1,868.0

Netintangibles 4,527.0 4,364.3 4,201.6 4,038.9

Totalinvestments 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3

Otherlong-termassets 93.2 93.2 93.2 93.2

Totalassets 7,823.2 8,106.0 8,465.7 8,585.9

Accountspayable 409.8 451.2 488.8 529.3

Short-termdebt 454.8 454.8 454.8 454.8

Short-termleaseliabilities -- -- -- --

Othercurrentliabilities 716.9 722.7 729.2 736.5

Totalcurrentliabilities 1,581.5 1,628.7 1,672.8 1,720.6

Long-termdebt 2,680.8 2,680.8 2,680.8 2,680.8

Long-termleaseliabilities 406.1 441.9 476.9 511.8

Otherlong-termliabilities 256.5 256.5 256.5 256.5

Totallong-termliabilities 3,343.4 3,379.2 3,414.2 3,449.1

Totalliabilities 4,924.9 5,007.8 5,087.0 5,169.7

Preferredshares -- -- -- --

Totalcommonequity 2,838.8 3,038.6 3,319.3 3,356.7

Minorityinterest 59.5 59.5 59.5 59.5

Totalliabilities&equity 7,823.2 8,106.0 8,465.7 8,585.9

GCI,nominal(excash) 7,898.1 8,221.4 8,554.0 8,905.6

Unfundedpens.liab(offb/s) -- -- -- --

12/19 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

Netincome 145.5 255.2 343.1 407.8

D&Aadd-back 495.9 510.8 531.5 553.4

Minorityinterestadd-back 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1

Net(inc)/decworkingcapital (64.1) (23.9) (31.1) (32.4)

Otheroperatingcashflow (63.9) 8.8 9.2 9.6

Cashflowfromoperations 514.3 751.9 853.6 939.5

Capitalexpenditures (425.1) (403.5) (415.5) (442.9)

Acquisitions (171.0) -- -- --

Divestitures 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

Others 47.6 0.0 -- --

Cashflowfrominvesting (543.1) (403.5) (415.5) (442.9)

Repaymentofleaseliabilities -- -- -- --

Dividendspaid(common&pref) (51.4) (64.2) (71.0) (78.5)

Inc/(dec)indebt (147.8) 0.0 0.0 (300.0)

Otherfinancingcashflows 23.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

Cashflowfromfinancing (175.8) (64.2) (71.0) (378.5)

Totalcashflow (209.2) 284.2 367.1 118.1

Eurofins Scientific (EUFI.PA) Rating since Jun 22, 2016

Buy CL

Eurofins Scientific (EUFI.PA)

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Page 3: Eurofins Scientific A) · Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details. Market cap: €7.1bn / $8.1bn Enterprise value: €11.3bn / $12.8bn

FCF to improve in 2020/21 led by underlying margin improvement, lower capex, SDIs and normal working capital outflows

Exhibit 1: We expect an underlying margin improvement of 50bp in 2020 and 100bp in 2021... EBITDA (co. def.) margin trends

Exhibit 2: ...coupled with lower SDIs Separately disclosed items (SDIs in €mn) and as % of adjusted EBITDA

14.4%

16.3%

18.3%

16.9%17.9%

18.5%18.5%

18.9%

18.7%

19.0% 20.4%

22.4%23.4% 23.9%

1.5%

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

E

2021

E

2022

EEBITDA margin Margin impact of cyber attack

3318 12 15

30 3016 19

43

68

98

60

30 30

35.9%

16.2%

8.2% 8.7%

13.8%

11.7%

4.4% 3.9%

7.8% 9.5% 10.5%

5.5%2.5% 2.3%

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

E

2021

E

2022

E

SDI as % of adjusted EBITDA

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 3: Working capital outflow was high in 2019 due to the cyber attacks, but we expect that to normalize in the future... Working capital inflow/outflow (in €mn)

Exhibit 4: ...along with stable capex spend Net capex (in €mns) and capex as % to sales

-2

2

-7 -11

14 17

-3 -7 -11-21

-64

-24-31 -32

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

E

2021

E

2022

E

44 40 54 6599

131164

194 213

361321 305 308 327

6.9%5.8%

6.5% 6.2%

8.1%9.3%

8.4%7.7% 7.2%

9.6%

7.0%6.3% 6.0% 6.0%

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

E

2021

E

2022

E

Net Capex Net Capex as % of sales

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 5: As a result we expect free cash flow generation to improve from 2020... Free cash flow generation (in €mns)

Exhibit 6: ..resulting in deleveraging of the balance sheet to 1.5x-2.0x by 2022E Net debt/EBITDA (ex IFRS 16 and ex hybrid capital)

2045 57 70 71 81

127178 192 183 258

482

566613

9 35 46 51 50 53101 127 150 127

168

389

471515

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

E

2021

E

2022

E

Free cash flow to the firm Free cash flow to equity

2.0x

1.5x1.7x 1.7x 1.8x 1.9x

2.5x

1.2x

2.5x

3.7x3.5x

2.6x

2.0x1.8x

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

E

2021

E

2022

E

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

10 March 2020 3

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Page 4: Eurofins Scientific A) · Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details. Market cap: €7.1bn / $8.1bn Enterprise value: €11.3bn / $12.8bn

Option to remove related-party leases once the company de-gears

A key concern for investors has been the related-party transactions on properties held by the family (Martin family who are also controlling shareholders) and leased to Eurofins. However we note that the company has been reducing its reliance on related parties in the last few years. Furthermore, the CEO has said that once the company de-levers to the mid-point of its targeted leverage of 1.5x to 2.5x, minority shareholders will be able to vote on these related-party leases and choose for Eurofins to buy it back (and thus eliminate related-party leases). For more details see our note here . We see the company de-levering to this targeted range by 2022 and believe this option (if exercised) could remove the overhang on the shares and improve investor confidence.

Financials: Strong organic growth should drive operating leverage and improved cash generation

Following good FY results, we nevertheless lower our FY20 organic growth forecast slightly from 5.9% to 5.5% to account for potential macroeconomic risks. On margins, we expect underlying margin expansion of c.50bp for FY20 and 100bp in 2021 (in line with company guidance), given a 2019 underlying margin adjusted for the cyber attack was estimated by the company to be 19.1% on an ex-IFRS 16 basis (21.9% post IFRS 16). Overall, we see a 14% EPS CAGR (post-hybrid) over 2020-2024E.

Exhibit 7: Related-party leases have reduced in the mix from 19% in 2018 to 17% in 2019 Breakdown of ownership of sites occupied by Eurofins globally

Exhibit 8: We note related-party rents are broadly similar/ lower to third party Rent per sqm

65%16%

19%

63%20%

17%

Third-party landlords

Eurofins owned

Related parties

2019

2018

124

139

125134

2018

2019

Sites rented from third parties Sites rented from related parties

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Source: Company data

10 March 2020 4

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Page 5: Eurofins Scientific A) · Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details. Market cap: €7.1bn / $8.1bn Enterprise value: €11.3bn / $12.8bn

Exhibit 9: We expect a 6% organic revenue CAGR and 8% adjusted EBITDA (GS def) CAGR over 2020-24E Summary P&L statement

Group P&L 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E CAGR ’20-24E

Sales 1,410 1,950 2,537 2,971 3,781 4,563 4,844 5,134 5,442 5,769 6,115 6%% YoY 15.1% 38.3% 30.1% 17.1% 27.2% 20.7% 6.2% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%% Organic growth 6.0% 7.5% 9.0% 6.0% 4.5% 3.6% 5.5% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% % FX -1.0% 5.5% -0.3% -0.8% -2.9% 2.4% -0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% % M&A 10.1% 25.3% 21.4% 11.9% 25.6% 14.6% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Add back: Total Separately Disclosed Items 30 16 19 43 68 98 60 30 30 30 30

Co. def. Adj. EBITDA (ex stock options) 260 361 480 557 720 931 1,085 1,199 1,302 1,391 1,473 8%margin 18.5% 18.5% 18.9% 18.7% 19.0% 20.4% 22.4% 23.4% 23.9% 24.1% 24.1%% yoy 19% 39% 33% 16% 29% 29% 17% 11% 9% 7% 6%

Start-up costs, new M&A restructuring -10 1 -4 -31 -39 -50 -30 -15 -15 -15 -15 Stock option charge - non-cash -5 -6 -9 -9 -12 -16 -16 -17 -17 -18 -18GS Adj. EBITDA (incl stock options) 246 355 467 516 669 865 1,039 1,167 1,270 1,358 1,439 8%

margin 17.4% 18.2% 18.4% 17.4% 17.7% 19.0% 21.5% 22.7% 23.3% 23.5% 23.5%% yoy 23% 44% 31% 10% 30% 29% 20% 12% 9% 7% 6%

Reported EBITDA 225 339 453 504 639 817 1,009 1,152 1,255 1,343 1,424margin 16.0% 17.4% 17.8% 17.0% 16.9% 17.9% 20.8% 22.4% 23.1% 23.3% 23.3%% yoy 22% 51% 33% 11% 27% 28% 23% 14% 9% 7% 6%

D&A (excl. start-ups, M&A restr.) -71 -96 -122 -157 -199 -357 -391 -416 -438 -462 -486Co. def. Adj. EBITA (ex stock options) 190 264 358 400 521 574 694 783 864 929 986 9%

margin 13.5% 13.6% 14.1% 13.4% 13.8% 12.6% 14.3% 15.2% 15.9% 16.1% 16.1%% yoy 17% 39% 35% 12% 30% 10% 21% 13% 10% 8% 6%

D&A costs for start-ups, M&A restr. -11 -15 -20 -19 -25 -39 -20 -15 -15 -15 -15GS Adj. EBITA (incl stock options) 165 244 326 341 445 469 628 736 817 881 938 11%

margin 11.7% 12.5% 12.8% 11.5% 11.8% 10.3% 13.0% 14.3% 15.0% 15.3% 15.3%% yoy 23% 48% 33% 5% 31% 5% 34% 17% 11% 8% 6%

Acquisition related expenses -12 -30 -29 -31 -71 -55 -100 -100 -100 -100 -100Co. reported EBIT 132 198 282 297 344 367 498 621 702 766 823

margin 9.3% 10.2% 11.1% 10.0% 9.1% 8.0% 10.3% 12.1% 12.9% 13.3% 13.5%% yoy 17% 50% 42% 5% 16% 7% 36% 25% 13% 9% 7%

Net Financial Items -31 -66 -40 -47 -55 -96 -93 -94 -96 -97 -100

Associates 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1Co. def. Adj. PBT 159 199 318 353 467 478 601 689 769 833 888GS adj pre-tax profit 134 179 286 294 391 374 535 642 722 785 839

Reported pre-tax profit 101 132 243 250 290 271 405 527 607 670 724

Underlying tax -31 -60 -81 -54 -105 -117 -147 -168 -188 -203 -217 Underlying tax rate, % 23.4% 33.4% 28.4% 18.5% 26.9% 31.2% 27.4% 26.2% 26.0% 25.9% 25.8% Minorities 0 -3 -6 -3 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1

Co. def. Adj. net income 128 136 231 295 361 361 454 520 580 628 670 10%GS adj Net Income 103 116 199 236 286 256 387 473 533 580 621 Exceptional tax and minorities 9 18 19 24 39 42 34 21 18 16 15Reported Net Income 79 87 174 217 224 195 291 379 437 482 521 16%

Earnings due Hybrid capital investors 1 31 36 36 49 50 36 36 29 18 18

GS Earnings post Hybrid capital 102 85 163 201 237 207 351 437 504 562 603 14%

Basic Shares 15.1 15.3 16.0 17.1 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.3Diluted Shares 16.1 16.3 17.0 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.7 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.1

Co. def. Adj. EPS basic before hybrid 8.45 8.88 14.45 17.26 20.42 20.26 25.34 28.88 32.06 34.51 36.59 10%% yoy 9% 5% 63% 19% 18% -1% 25% 14% 11% 8% 6%

GS Adj. EPS diluted post hybrid 6.33 5.22 9.64 11.14 12.95 11.12 18.78 23.24 26.68 29.60 31.59 14%% yoy 45% -17% 84% 16% 16% -14% 69% 24% 15% 11% 7%

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

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Page 6: Eurofins Scientific A) · Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details. Market cap: €7.1bn / $8.1bn Enterprise value: €11.3bn / $12.8bn

Exhibit 10: We expect strong FCF generation in the future, helped by underlying earnings growth, stable capex, lower SDIs and WC outflow Summary Cash Flow Statement

Group Cash Flow Statement 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024EReported pre-tax profit 101 132 243 250 290 271 405 527 607 670 724D&A (ex IFRS 16) 81 111 142 176 224 285 300 314 329 345 362D&A (IFRS 16) 111 111 117 124 131 139Add back: Net interest (ex IFRS 16) 31 66 40 45 52 69 65 64 63 62 62Add back: Net interest (IFRS 16) 27 27 29 32 34 37Taxes Paid -32 -43 -73 -79 -68 -95 -114 -148 -170 -188 -203Other (acquisition intangibles and stock options) 14 28 28 24 67 74 115 115 115 116 116

Working Capital Cash Flow 17 -3 -7 -11 -21 -64 -24 -31 -32 -34 -35

Cash Flow from Operations 212 291 372 405 543.8 677.8 885 988 1,068 1,137 1,202

Capital Expenditure -135 -169 -200 -246 -364 -327 -305 -308 -327 -346 -367% of sales 9.5% 8.7% 7.9% 8.3% 9.6% 7.2% 6.3% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%IFRS 16 Capex -98 -98 -107 -116 -125 -134% of sales 2.2% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 2.2%Sale of fixed assets 3 5 6 33 3 5 0 0 0 0 0Acquisitions & Disposals -292 -627 -201 -1,534 -1,254 -171 0 0 0 0 0Other Investing Cash Flow 1 -72 3 0 58 51 3 5 6 7 7Cash Flow from Investments -422 -864 -392 -1,747 -1,557 -540 -400 -411 -437 -465 -494

Change in debt increase/(decrease) 14 907 -338 741 822 -145 0 0 0 0 0Equity Issue (Repurchase) 7 9 501 320 20 23 0 0 0 0 0Hybrid capital increase/(decrease) 163 299 0 399 0 -2 0 0 -300 -300 -300Earnings paid to hybrid capital investors -6 -21 -36 -36 -49 -68 -36 -36 -29 -18 -18Interest paid -30 -30 -55 -46 -60 -93 -96 -98 -101 -103 -105Dividends -18 -20 -22 -35 -43 -51 -64 -71 -78 -87 -96Repayment of lease liabilities (IFRS 16) -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5Other Financing Cash Flow 0.226 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Cash Flow from Financing 130 1,143 50 1,343 691 -342 -201 -210 -513 -512 -524

FX impact 2 5 5 -11 1 4 0 0 0 0 0

Total Cash Flow -78 576 35 -10 -321 -201 284 367 118 160 184

Cash Generation

Operating cash flow (post hybrid & int. exp) 177 167 284 324 493 567 757 858 944 1,023 1,086OCF post hybrid/int. exp (ex IFRS 16) 463 654 746 823 893 947% yoy -6.1% 41.0% 14.2% 10.3% 8.5% 6.1%

FCFF (GS defn, ex IFRS 16) 81 127 178 192 182 221 450 538 588 627 660FCFe post net capex (ex IFRS 16) 45 76 87 111 74 92 345 433 491 540 573% yoy 22% 70% 14% 28% -34% 24% 277% 26% 13% 10% 6%FCF Yield 1.4% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.0% 3.9% 4.9% 5.5% 6.0% 6.3%

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

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Page 7: Eurofins Scientific A) · Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details. Market cap: €7.1bn / $8.1bn Enterprise value: €11.3bn / $12.8bn

Exhibit 11: We expect steady deleveraging as Eurofins keeps capex stable and generates stronger FCF Summary Balance Sheet

Group Summary Balance Sheet 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E Cash and Equivalents 217 794 826 820 506 297 581 948 1,066 1,226 1,410 Accounts Receivable 321 443 525 706 865 1,001 1,062 1,125 1,193 1,264 1,340 Inventory 25 38 40 52 66 79 84 89 95 100 106 Other current assets 58 150 189 249 268 227 227 227 227 227 227Total Current Assets 621 1,424 1,579 1,827 1,705 1,604 1,954 2,390 2,581 2,818 3,083

Net PPE 324 428 507 686 1,018 1,594 1,689 1,776 1,868 1,966 2,069 Net Intangible Assets 873 1,763 1,968 3,240 4,365 4,527 4,364 4,202 4,039 3,876 3,714 Other Long-Term Assets 56 85 75 79 117 99 99 99 99 99 99Total Fixed Assets 1,252 2,276 2,550 4,006 5,500 6,219 6,152 6,076 6,005 5,940 5,881

Total Assets 1,873 3,700 4,129 5,832 7,205 7,823 8,106 8,466 8,586 8,758 8,965

Accounts Payable 127 197 230 302 373 410 451 489 529 573 620 Short-Term Debt 72 213 44 554 391 455 455 455 455 455 455 Interest and earnings due on hybrid capital 24 52 58 64 66 50 50 50 50 50 50 Other Current Liabilities 228 313 378 531 621 667 673 679 687 695 704Total Current Liabilities 452 775 710 1,452 1,451 1,582 1,629 1,673 1,721 1,772 1,829

Long-term debt 638 1,497 1,340 1,662 2,766 3,087 3,123 3,158 3,193 3,228 3,264 Other Long-Term Liabilities 119 348 322 236 266 257 257 257 257 257 257Total Long-Term Liabilities 757 1,845 1,663 1,898 3,033 3,343 3,379 3,414 3,449 3,485 3,521

Total Common Equity 356 357 1,027 1,443 1,669 1,839 2,039 2,319 2,657 3,041 3,456 Hybrid Capital 300 600 600 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 700 400 100 Minority Interest 8 123 129 39 53 60 60 60 60 60 60Total Shareholders’ Equity 664 1,080 1,757 2,482 2,722 2,898 3,098 3,379 3,416 3,501 3,615

Total Liabilities and Equity 1,873 3,700 4,129 5,832 7,205 7,823 8,106 8,466 8,586 8,758 8,965

Reported Net Debt, external 494 916 558 1,396 2,651 3,245 2,996 2,664 2,581 2,457 2,309Reported Net Debt/adj EBITDA 1.9x 2.5x 1.2x 2.5x 3.7x 3.5x 2.8x 2.2x 2.0x 1.8x 1.6xNet debt/adj EBITDA pre IFRS 16 1.9x 2.5x 1.2x 2.5x 3.7x 3.5x 2.6x 2.0x 1.8x 1.5x 1.3x

Reported Net Debt/GS adj EBITDA 2.0x 2.6x 1.2x 2.7x 4.0x 3.8x 2.9x 2.3x 2.0x 1.8x 1.6x

Hybrid 300 600 600 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 700 400 100 Pension 35 47 51 56 64 75 75 75 75 75 75 Provision 13 22 18 20 22 27 26 25 24 23 22

GS Net Debt, total 841 1,585 1,227 2,471 3,737 4,347 4,098 3,764 3,380 2,955 2,506GS Net Debt (total)/GS adj EBITDA 3.4x 4.5x 2.6x 4.8x 5.6x 5.0x 3.9x 3.2x 2.7x 2.2x 1.7x

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

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Valuation and Key Risks

Our 12-month price target rises slightly to €640 (from €630) is based on a 2021E EV/EBITDA of 12x, and uses of excess cash as well as M&A components (based on 16x 2021E EV/EBITDA, in line with historical transactions, 15% weighting). Downside risks: Eurofins has completed a number of deals in the last two years (above €1 bn spend pa) and many of the acquisitions are at lower-than-group average margins. Hence, failure to increase margins from closed M&A would impact future cash generation and returns potential. Other risks include a failure to return to 5%+ organic growth levels, inability to hit medium-term targets in 2020 and key man risk (CEO and founder). Finally, a worse-than-expected impact from the ransomware incident could further impact estimates.

Exhibit 12: Our 12-month price target rises slightly to €640 (from €630) PT methodology

Price target calculation EBITDA 2021E

EV/EBITDA multiple EV 2021E

Group EBITDA 1,167 12.0 14,010AddAssociates 14InvestmentsEV 14,024LessNet debt/(cash) 2,664Minorities 20Pensions and other 100Hybrid capital 1,000Equity Value 10,239No. of shares, mn 18Implied per share valuation (currency) 572 572

Value accretion (destruction) from potential uses of cashDebt financingNet debt/EBITDA by 2021E 3.1xTarget Adj Net Debt/EBITDA 4.0xExtra Cash available to be used by 2021E , € mn 1006Additional cash from compounding effect, € mn 447Historic EV/EBITDA paid for acquisitions 9.0xEBITDA from acquisition, € mn 161Value creation from uses of cash, € mn 484Value from uses of cash, € per share 27

27

Potential M&A valueTarget EV/EBITDA for M&A scenario 16.0Potential M&A value 833

Potential value per share of M&A premium, 15% weighting 39

Total 638

12m price target, € per share 640

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

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Page 9: Eurofins Scientific A) · Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details. Market cap: €7.1bn / $8.1bn Enterprise value: €11.3bn / $12.8bn

Company Profile

Exhibit 13: Eurofins has a high exposure to Food & Feed Testing as well as Pharma... Estimated 2019 end-market exposure

Exhibit 14: With high market shares in most of its end markets Estimated market shares across end-markets

Clinical Diagnostics

25%

Food & Feed25%

Environmental20%

Pharma30%

N. 1-3 worldwide

N. 1 worldwide

N. 1 worldwideStartup

6.0 4.0 5.0 7.5

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Pharma Food & feed Environmental Clinical Diagnostics

Market size in €bn

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 15: North America contributes 37% of group revenues... 2019 geographical revenue breakdown

Exhibit 16: ...but contributes 42% of the EBITDA margins, due to higher margins 2019 EBITDA breakdown

Europe55%

North America37%

RoW8%

Europe50%

North America42%

RoW8%

Source: company data

Source: Company data

Exhibit 17: Eurofins has delivered +5% organic growth on average historically Organic growth trends

Exhibit 18: We expect EBITDA margins to expand over the medium term EBITDA margin trends

10.0%

1.9%

5.5%

8.0% 8.1%

6.5%6.0%

7.5%

9.0%

6.0%

4.5%3.6%

5.5%6.0% 6.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

E

2021

E

2022

E

12.6%

14.4%

16.3%

18.3%

16.9%17.9%

18.5% 18.5% 18.9% 18.7% 19.0%20.4%

22.4%23.4%

23.9%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

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Disclosure Appendix

Reg AC I, Suhasini Varanasi, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are analysts in Goldman Sachs’ Global Investment Research division.

GS Factor Profile The Goldman Sachs Factor Profile provides investment context for a stock by comparing key attributes to the market (i.e. our coverage universe) and its sector peers. The four key attributes depicted are: Growth, Financial Returns, Multiple (e.g. valuation) and Integrated (a composite of Growth, Financial Returns and Multiple). Growth, Financial Returns and Multiple are calculated by using normalized ranks for specific metrics for each stock. The normalized ranks for the metrics are then averaged and converted into percentiles for the relevant attribute. The precise calculation of each metric may vary depending on the fiscal year, industry and region, but the standard approach is as follows:

Growth is based on a stock’s forward-looking sales growth, EBITDA growth and EPS growth (for financial stocks, only EPS and sales growth), with a higher percentile indicating a higher growth company. Financial Returns is based on a stock’s forward-looking ROE, ROCE and CROCI (for financial stocks, only ROE), with a higher percentile indicating a company with higher financial returns. Multiple is based on a stock’s forward-looking P/E, P/B, price/dividend (P/D), EV/EBITDA, EV/FCF and EV/Debt Adjusted Cash Flow (DACF) (for financial stocks, only P/E, P/B and P/D), with a higher percentile indicating a stock trading at a higher multiple. The Integrated percentile is calculated as the average of the Growth percentile, Financial Returns percentile and (100% - Multiple percentile).

Financial Returns and Multiple use the Goldman Sachs analyst forecasts at the fiscal year-end at least three quarters in the future. Growth uses inputs for the fiscal year at least seven quarters in the future compared with the year at least three quarters in the future (on a per-share basis for all metrics).

For a more detailed description of how we calculate the GS Factor Profile, please contact your GS representative.

M&A Rank Across our global coverage, we examine stocks using an M&A framework, considering both qualitative factors and quantitative factors (which may vary across sectors and regions) to incorporate the potential that certain companies could be acquired. We then assign a M&A rank as a means of scoring companies under our rated coverage from 1 to 3, with 1 representing high (30%-50%) probability of the company becoming an acquisition target, 2 representing medium (15%-30%) probability and 3 representing low (0%-15%) probability. For companies ranked 1 or 2, in line with our standard departmental guidelines we incorporate an M&A component into our target price. M&A rank of 3 is considered immaterial and therefore does not factor into our price target, and may or may not be discussed in research.

Quantum Quantum is Goldman Sachs’ proprietary database providing access to detailed financial statement histories, forecasts and ratios. It can be used for in-depth analysis of a single company, or to make comparisons between companies in different sectors and markets.

Disclosures Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s) Suhasini Varanasi: Europe-Business Services. Matija Gergolet: Europe-Business Services.

Europe-Business Services: Adecco Group, Amadeus IT Group, Austrian Post, Babcock International, bpost, Brenntag AG, Bunzl, Bureau Veritas, Capita Plc, DCC Plc, Deutsche Post DHL, Elis SA, Equiniti, Eurazeo, Eurofins Scientific, Experian, Ferguson Plc, Hays Plc, IMCD NV, Intertek Group, ISS, Loomis AB, PageGroup Plc, Poste Italiane, Prosegur Cash SA, Prosegur Group, Randstad NV, Rentokil Initial Plc, Royal Mail Group, Rubis, Securitas AB, SGS, Teleperformance.

Company-specific regulatory disclosures The following disclosures relate to relationships between The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (with its affiliates, “Goldman Sachs”) and companies covered by the Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs and referred to in this research.

Goldman Sachs beneficially owned 1% or more of common equity (excluding positions managed by affiliates and business units not required to be aggregated under US securities law) as of the month end preceding this report: Eurofins Scientific (€415.60)

Goldman Sachs has received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 months: Eurofins Scientific (€415.60)

Goldman Sachs expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next 3 months: Eurofins Scientific (€415.60)

Goldman Sachs had an investment banking services client relationship during the past 12 months with: Eurofins Scientific (€415.60)

Goldman Sachs had a non-securities services client relationship during the past 12 months with: Eurofins Scientific (€415.60)

Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships Goldman Sachs Investment Research global Equity coverage universe

As of January 1, 2020, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research had investment ratings on 3,054 equity securities. Goldman Sachs assigns stocks as Buys and Sells on various regional Investment Lists; stocks not so assigned are deemed Neutral. Such assignments equate to Buy, Hold and Sell for the purposes of the above disclosure required by the FINRA Rules. See ‘Ratings, Coverage groups and related definitions’ below. The Investment Banking Relationships chart reflects the percentage of subject companies within each rating category for whom Goldman Sachs has provided

Rating Distribution Investment Banking Relationships

Buy Hold Sell Buy Hold Sell

Global 44% 40% 16% 63% 57% 51%

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investment banking services within the previous twelve months.

Price target and rating history chart(s)

Regulatory disclosures Disclosures required by United States laws and regulations See company-specific regulatory disclosures above for any of the following disclosures required as to companies referred to in this report: manager or co-manager in a pending transaction; 1% or other ownership; compensation for certain services; types of client relationships; managed/co-managed public offerings in prior periods; directorships; for equity securities, market making and/or specialist role. Goldman Sachs trades or may trade as a principal in debt securities (or in related derivatives) of issuers discussed in this report.

The following are additional required disclosures: Ownership and material conflicts of interest: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts, professionals reporting to analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the analyst’s area of coverage. Analyst compensation: Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of Goldman Sachs, which includes investment banking revenues. Analyst as officer or director: Goldman Sachs policy generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts or members of their households from serving as an officer, director or advisor of any company in the analyst’s area of coverage. Non-U.S. Analysts: Non-U.S. analysts may not be associated persons of Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC and therefore may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2241 or FINRA Rule 2242 restrictions on communications with subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by the analysts.

Distribution of ratings: See the distribution of ratings disclosure above. Price chart: See the price chart, with changes of ratings and price targets in prior periods, above, or, if electronic format or if with respect to multiple companies which are the subject of this report, on the Goldman Sachs website at https://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.

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specific client, and are prepared without analyzing the financial circumstances, investment profiles or risk profiles of clients. Goldman Sachs assumes no responsibility for any investment decisions that may be taken by a client or any other person based on this research report. Singapore: Further information on the covered companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 198602165W). Taiwan: This material is for reference only and must not be reprinted without permission. Investors should carefully consider their own investment risk. Investment results are the responsibility of the individual investor. United Kingdom: Persons who would be categorized as retail clients in the United Kingdom, as such term is defined in the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority, should read this research in conjunction with prior Goldman Sachs research on the covered companies referred to herein and should refer to the risk warnings that have been sent to them by Goldman Sachs International. A copy of these risks warnings, and a glossary of certain financial terms used in this report, are available from Goldman Sachs International on request.

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Ratings, coverage groups and related definitions Buy (B), Neutral (N), Sell (S) -Analysts recommend stocks as Buys or Sells for inclusion on various regional Investment Lists. Being assigned a Buy or Sell on an Investment List is determined by a stock’s total return potential relative to its coverage. Any stock not assigned as a Buy or a Sell on an Investment List with an active rating (i.e., a stock that is not Rating Suspended, Not Rated, Coverage Suspended or Not Covered), is deemed Neutral. Each region’s Investment Review Committee manages Regional Conviction lists, which represent investment recommendations focused on the size of the total return potential and/or the likelihood of the realization of the return across their respective areas of coverage. The addition or removal of stocks from such Conviction lists do not represent a change in the analysts’ investment rating for such stocks.

Total return potential represents the upside or downside differential between the current share price and the price target, including all paid or anticipated dividends, expected during the time horizon associated with the price target. Price targets are required for all covered stocks. The total return potential, price target and associated time horizon are stated in each report adding or reiterating an Investment List membership.

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Not Rated (NR). The investment rating and target price have been removed pursuant to Goldman Sachs policy when Goldman Sachs is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving this company and in certain other circumstances. Rating Suspended (RS). Goldman Sachs Research has suspended the investment rating and price target for this stock, because there is not a sufficient fundamental basis for determining, or there are legal, regulatory or policy constraints around publishing, an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock and should not be relied upon. Coverage Suspended (CS). Goldman Sachs has suspended coverage of this company. Not Covered (NC). Goldman Sachs does not cover this company. Not Available or Not Applicable (NA). The information is not available for display or is not applicable. Not Meaningful (NM). The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.

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General disclosures This research is for our clients only. Other than disclosures relating to Goldman Sachs, this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Other than certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst’s judgment.

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Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients and principal trading desks that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Our asset management area, principal trading desks and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views expressed in this research.

The analysts named in this report may have from time to time discussed with our clients, including Goldman Sachs salespersons and traders, or may discuss in this report, trading strategies that reference catalysts or events that may have a near-term impact on the market price of the equity securities discussed in this report, which impact may be directionally counter to the analyst’s published price target expectations for such stocks. Any such trading strategies are distinct from and do not affect the analyst’s fundamental equity rating for such stocks, which rating reflects a stock’s return potential relative to its coverage group as described herein.

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We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

The views attributed to third party presenters at Goldman Sachs arranged conferences, including individuals from other parts of Goldman Sachs, do not necessarily reflect those of Global Investment Research and are not an official view of Goldman Sachs.

Any third party referenced herein, including any salespeople, traders and other professionals or members of their household, may have positions in the products mentioned that are inconsistent with the views expressed by analysts named in this report.

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