europe & central asia outlook, jan 2014
TRANSCRIPT
Mizuho KidaWorld Bank
January 2014
Global Economic Prospects January 2014
Europe & Central Asia Region
www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
Growth in the ECA region has strengthened in 2013 to 3.4% up
from 2% in 2012.
Growth in the Europe & Central Asia region has strengthened in 2013 to
3.4% up from 2% in 2012.
Growth strengthened in the region supported by increases in external demand
Quarterly GDP (% change, sa)
Growth strengthened in the region supported by increases in external demand
Quarterly GDP (% change, sa) Export volume (% change, 3m/3m, sa)
Growth strengthened in the region supported by increases in external demand
Quarterly GDP (% change, sa) Export volume (% change, 3m/3m, sa)
Among the Commonwealth of Independent States, growth performance has been mixed.
Energy-commodity exporters maintained a strong growth
Azerb
aijan
Kazak
hsta
n
Albenia
Georg
ia
Armen
ia
Uzbek
istan
Ukrain
e
Hunga
ry
Bulgar
ia
Belaru
s
Kyrgy
z Rep
ublic
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0 Impact of commodity price changes on trade balance (%GDP, 2013)
Energy-commodity exporters maintained a strong growth
Azerb
aijan
Kazak
hsta
n
Albenia
Georg
ia
Armen
ia
Uzbek
istan
Ukrain
e
Hunga
ry
Bulgar
ia
Belaru
s
Kyrgy
z Rep
ublic
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0 Impact of commodity price changes on trade balance (%GDP, 2013)
Energy-commodity exporters maintained a strong growth
Azerb
aijan
Kazak
hsta
n
Albenia
Georg
ia
Armen
ia
Uzbek
istan
Ukrain
e
Hunga
ry
Bulgar
ia
Belaru
s
Kyrgy
z Rep
ublic
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0 Impact of commodity price changes on trade balance (%GDP, 2013)
Energy-commodity exporters maintained a strong growth
Azerb
aijan
Kazak
hsta
n
Albenia
Georg
ia
Armen
ia
Uzbek
istan
Ukrain
e
Hunga
ry
Bulgar
ia
Belaru
s
Kyrgy
z Rep
ublic
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0 Impact of commodity price changes on trade balance (%GDP, 2013)
Energy-commodity exporters maintained a strong growth
Azerb
aijan
Kazak
hsta
n
Albenia
Georg
ia
Armen
ia
Uzbek
istan
Ukrain
e
Hunga
ry
Bulgar
ia
Belaru
s
Kyrgy
z Rep
ublic
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0 Impact of commodity price changes on trade balance (%GDP, 2013)
Energy-commodity exporters maintained a strong growth
Azerb
aijan
Kazak
hsta
n
Albenia
Georg
ia
Armen
ia
Uzbek
istan
Ukrain
e
Hunga
ry
Bulgar
ia
Belaru
s
Kyrgy
z Rep
ublic
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0 Impact of commodity price changes on trade balance (%GDP, 2013)
Energy-commodity exporters maintained a strong growth
Azerb
aijan
Kazak
hsta
n
Albenia
Georg
ia
Armen
ia
Uzbek
istan
Ukrain
e
Hunga
ry
Bulgar
ia
Belaru
s
Kyrgy
z Rep
ublic
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0 Impact of commodity price changes on trade balance (%GDP, 2013)
Among the CIS countries, strong remittance inflows partially mitigated terms of trade shocks
Tajikis
tan
Kyrgy
z Rep
ublic
Mold
ova
Armen
ia
Georg
ia
Bosnia
& H
erze
govin
a
Mon
tene
gro
Serbia
Albania
Ukrain
e0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Remittances (%GDP, 2013)
Capital inflows to the region began strong, but weakened after the mid-year tapering
announcement and ensuing volatility.
Capital inflows to the region began strong, but weakened after the mid-year tapering announcement and ensuing volatility
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Gross Capital Flows to ECA (US$ mn)
Across the region, the banking sector remains weak, saddled with an overhang of non-performing loans
Ukrain
e
Kazak
hsta
n
Serbia
Albania
Bulgar
ia
Roman
ia
Pakist
an
Seneg
al
Hunga
ry
Mon
tene
gro
Mold
ova
Sierra
Leo
ne
Tajikis
tan
Bosnia
& H
erze
govin
a
Ghana
Nigeria
Egypt
, Ara
b Rep
.
Mac
edon
ia, F
YR
Kyrgy
z Rep
ublic
Russia
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Bank nonperforming loans to to-tal gross loans (%)
Across the region, the banking sector remains weak, saddled with an overhang of non-performing loans
Ukrain
e
Kazak
hsta
n
Serbia
Albania
Bulgar
ia
Roman
ia
Pakist
an
Seneg
al
Hunga
ry
Mon
tene
gro
Mold
ova
Sierra
Leo
ne
Tajikis
tan
Bosnia
& H
erze
govin
a
Ghana
Nigeria
Egypt
, Ara
b Rep
.
Mac
edon
ia, F
YR
Kyrgy
z Rep
ublic
Russia
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Bank nonperforming loans to to-tal gross loans (%)
Across the region, the banking sector remains weak, saddled with an overhang of non-performing loans
Ukrain
e
Kazak
hsta
n
Serbia
Albania
Bulgar
ia
Roman
ia
Pakist
an
Seneg
al
Hunga
ry
Mon
tene
gro
Mold
ova
Sierra
Leo
ne
Tajikis
tan
Bosnia
& H
erze
govin
a
Ghana
Nigeria
Egypt
, Ara
b Rep
.
Mac
edon
ia, F
YR
Kyrgy
z Rep
ublic
Russia
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Bank nonperforming loans to to-tal gross loans (%)
Across the region, the banking sector remains weak, saddled with an overhang of non-performing loans
Ukrain
e
Kazak
hsta
n
Serbia
Albania
Bulgar
ia
Roman
ia
Pakist
an
Seneg
al
Hunga
ry
Mon
tene
gro
Mold
ova
Sierra
Leo
ne
Tajikis
tan
Bosnia
& H
erze
govin
a
Ghana
Nigeria
Egypt
, Ara
b Rep
.
Mac
edon
ia, F
YR
Kyrgy
z Rep
ublic
Russia
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Bank nonperforming loans to to-tal gross loans (%)
Across the region, the banking sector remains weak, saddled with an overhang of non-performing loans
Ukrain
e
Kazak
hsta
n
Serbia
Albania
Bulgar
ia
Roman
ia
Pakist
an
Seneg
al
Hunga
ry
Mon
tene
gro
Mold
ova
Sierra
Leo
ne
Tajikis
tan
Bosnia
& H
erze
govin
a
Ghana
Nigeria
Egypt
, Ara
b Rep
.
Mac
edon
ia, F
YR
Kyrgy
z Rep
ublic
Russia
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Bank nonperforming loans to to-tal gross loans (%)
Across the region, the banking sector remains weak, saddled with an overhang of non-performing loans
Ukrain
e
Kazak
hsta
n
Serbia
Albania
Bulgar
ia
Roman
ia
Pakist
an
Seneg
al
Hunga
ry
Mon
tene
gro
Mold
ova
Sierra
Leo
ne
Tajikis
tan
Bosnia
& H
erze
govin
a
Ghana
Nigeria
Egypt
, Ara
b Rep
.
Mac
edon
ia, F
YR
Kyrgy
z Rep
ublic
Russia
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Bank nonperforming loans to to-tal gross loans (%)
Growth outlook for the region is that of sustained gradual acceleration, from 3.4% in 2013 to 3.8% by 2016.
Growth outlook for the region is that of sustained gradual acceleration, from 3.4% in 2013 to 3.8% by 2016.
Growth outlook for the region is that of sustained gradual acceleration, from 3.4% in 2013 to 3.8% by 2016.
Growth outlook for the region critically depends on recoveries in Europe and Russia
Hungary
Romania
Kosovo
Croatia
Macedonia, FYR
Moldova
Armenia
Belarus
Ukraine
Tajikistan
Kyrgyz Republic
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Exports to the Euro Area(percent of total exports, 2012)
Belarus
Moldova
Lithuania
Kazakhstan
Poland
Turkey
Czech Republic
Bulgaria
Macedonia, FYR
Albania
0 10 20 30 40
Exports to Russia(percent of total exports, 2012)
Mizuho KidaWorld Bank
January 2014
Global Economic Prospects January 2014
Europe & Central Asia Region
www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook