european electricity transmission in 2050 - integration … · european electricity transmission in...

Chair of Energy Economics and Public Sector Management

EUROPEAN ELECTRICITYTRANSMISSION IN 2050 -

Integration of large scale renewables

Based on study project 2050 - Jonas Egerer, et al.

IAEE, Vienna09 September 2009

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Agenda

1. Introduction and Background

2. Approach

3. Results

a) HVDC expansion for CSP integration

b) Influence of Scandinavia

4. Conclusion

5. Literature

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Background

• DLR: Trans-CSP (2006)

• DLR: Characterisationof Solar ElectricityImport Corridors fromMENA to Europe (2009)

• Renewable Energy:

• Engineering:

Integration of concentrated solar power (CSP) fromMENA countries using a HVDC grid is economicallyfeasible

Analysis of solar electricity export potentials ofMENA countries and possible import corridors toEU27+.

Maximizing total welfare for EU30+ with a DC load flow model

Interaction of LS hydro, wind and solar power

Endogenous economic assessing of HVDCintegration for MENA CSP generation to EU30+

Challenge: Integrated economic engineering approach

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Findings

• What could the process of CSP integration look like?- Expansion path of HVDC transmission- Supplied markets mainly in southern Europe and profitability of CSP in 2030- Regions with high shares of wind or hydro power are not supplied

• Does a stronger integration of the Scandinavian market change the results?- Balancing mechanism of reservoirs combined with fluctuating wind power- Price shifts (Scandinavia up, continental Europe and UK down)- Lower electricity prices influence profitability of CSP integration

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Agenda


2. Approach

3. Results



4. Conclusion

5. Literature

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Original ELMOD

• Model of the Western / Central European UCTE network with 2120 nodes and3243 lines

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• Model of the EU30+ network with 105 zones and 1230 lines

• 105 demand and generation nodes

• Simplified AC grid

• Reference year with 24 states

− Season

− Daytime

− Demand

− Wind generation

• Seasonal storage (reservoirs)

• Objective: Welfare maximization

for the entire system

Adjusted ELMOD

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• Demand increase to 4,200 TWh/yr in 2050

• Gradual decrease of fossil fuels in the electricity sector due to increasing generation capacities of RES

• Exogenous CSP generation expansion

• CO2-price 2050: 100 €/t-CO2

• Escalation rates fuel prices:

• Oil and gas: 2.5 %/yr

• Coal: 1.0 %/yr

Adjusted ELMOD

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• Three export nodes in the MENA region (Morocco, Tunisia and Middle East)

• Possible HVDC connection to 30 demand centers in the EU30+

• Line costs according DLR cost-distance images (DLR 2009) - 4GW cables

Model endogenously obtains the optimal HVDC connections for 2020, 2030,2040 and 2050

Endogenous HVDC expansion from MENA

Evaluation of the HVDC expansion path for CSP integration.

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Agenda


2. Approach

3. Results



4. Conclusion

5. Literature

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HVDC Expansion for CSP integration

2020 2030 2040 2050

Morocco 1 1.9GW 2 7.8GW 5 18.5GW 9 32.7GW

Tunisia 1 1.4GW 4 5.7GW 4 13.4GW 6 23.6GW

Middle East 1 3.5GW 4 14.4GW 9 33.9GW 15 57.5GW

• Expansion based on

welfare maximization:

− Electricity prices

− Transmission costs

− Grid congestions

− Demand

• CSP profitable in 2030

(rising electricity prices)

• Calculated

transmission costs

of about 1 cent/kWh

• Additional welfare gains

for consumers

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Influence of Scandinavia

• Evaluation of the integration of the Scandinavian market and continental Europe/the UK

• Additional exogenous HVDC connections:

- Integration of Scandinavian reservoirs- Balancing of wind power- Shift in electricity prices

Change in the HVDC expansion and profitability for CSP?

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• Expanded inter-connection of the markets shifts prices

- Price increase for Scandinavia of 4 cent/kWh- Price decrease for rest of Europe 0.5 - 1.0 cent/kWh

• No influence on HVDC corridors before 2050

• CSP profitability delayed due to lower prices

also in southern Europe

Influence of Scandinavia

Northernzones

Southernzones

Integration of Scandinavia influences CSP integration.

Price difference throughbetter market integration:

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Agenda


2. Approach

3. Results



4. Conclusion

5. Literature

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Conclusion

• Transmission- HVDC connections for CSP integrations to closer markets (southern Europe)- Existence of alternative large scale renewable energy sources other than CSP avert

integration in CSP supply

• Profitability- Dependent on scenarios (2030 reasonable for increasing CO2 prices)- Possible delay in case of strong integration of the Scandinavian market

• Possible issues- Institutional aspects for the MENA region- Regulatory framework for transmission investments- Opposition for integration of Scandinavian markets (distribution of surpluses)- N-1 criteria / back-up costs and import dependency

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Agenda


2. Approach

3. Results



4. Conclusion

5. Literature

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Literature

• ABB: What is HVDC? Internet: http://www.abb.com/industries/db0003db004333/7b35e81830400a56c125748100460015.aspx. Accessed 10 August 2009.

• Czisch, G.: Realisable Scenarios for a Future Electricity Supply based 100% on Renewable Energies. Dissertation, University of Kassel, Institute forElectrical Engineering – Efficient Energy Conversion.

• DESERTEC Foundation: Red Paper, Das DESERTEC Konzept im Überblick. Internet:http://www.desertec.org/fileadmin/downloads/DESERTEC_RedPaper_2nd_de.pdf. Accessed 6 July 2009.

• DESERTEC Foundation : White Book: Clean Power from deserts. Internet: http://www.desertec.org/fileadmin/downloads/DESERTEC-WhiteBook_en_small.pdf. Accessed 28/07/2009.

• DLR: Trans-CSP study, full report download. Internet: http://www.dlr.de/tt/desktopdefault.aspx/tabid-2885/4422_read-6588/. Accessed 21 August 2009.

• DLR: REACCESS report, Characterisation of Solar Electricity Import Corridors from MENA to Europe. Internet:http://www.dlr.de/tt/Portaldata/41/Resources/dokumente/institut/system/publications/Solar_import_DLR_2009_07.pdf. Accessed 19 August 2009.

• ENTSOE: UCTE Transmission Development Plan 2008. Internet http://www.entsoe.eu/_library/publications/ce/otherreports/tdp09_report_ucte.pdf.Accessed 28 June 2009.

• ENTSOE: Nordic Grid Master Plan 2008. Internet:http://www.entsoe.eu/_library/publications/nordic/planning/080300_entsoe_nordic_NordicGridMasterPlan2008.pdf. Accessed 15 July 2009.

• ENTSOE: The executive summary pre-feasibility study – state load flow study on synchronous operation of Baltic power systems with the UCTE.

• ENTSOE: UCTE grid map 2008. Internet: http://www.entsoe.eu/resources/gridmap/. Accessed 27 August 2009.

• ENTSOE: Statistical Database. Internet: http://www.entsoe.eu/resources/data/. Accessed 28 July 2009.

• Eurostats: Introduction to the NUTS and the Statistical regions of Europe. Internet:http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/ramon/nuts/introduction_regions_de.html. Accessed 17 May 2009.

• Eurostats: Database. Internet: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database. Accessed 19 May 2009.

• IEEE: Introduction to HVDC Technology for Reliable Electrical Power Systems. Internet: http://www.ee.kth.se/php/modules/publications/reports/2008/IR-EE-ETK_2008_014.pdf. Accessed 30 August 2009.

• Leuthold, F., Weigt, H. and von Hirschhausen, C.: ELMOD - A Model of the European Electricity Market, Working paper EM-00. Internet: http://www.tu-dresden.de/wwbwleeg/publications/wp_em_00_ELMOD.pdf. Accessed 16 August 2009.

• National Grid: Demand data. Internet: http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Electricity/Data/. Accessed 20 July 2009.

• Nordel: Annual Report 2008. Internet: www.entsoe.eu/_library/publications/nordic/annualreport/Annual%20Report%202008.pdf. Accessed 25 July 2009.

• UCTE: Hourly load values. Internet: http://www.entsoe.eu/scripts/frameset/e_frameset.asp?ms=/resources/data/consumption/mdvhourly_month_year_country/default.asp. Accessed 15 July 2009.

• WETO: World Energy Technology Outlook - 2050, WETO H2. Internet: ec.europa.eu/research/energy/pdf/weto-h2_en.pdf. Accessed 20 May 2009.

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Question?

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Additional information #1

• Generation

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Model cases

Season Winter Summer

Daytime Night Day Night Day

Demand High Low High Low High Low High Low

Wind ↑ → ↓ ↑ → ↓ ↑ → ↓ ↑ → ↓ ↑ → ↓ ↑ → ↓ ↑ → ↓ ↑ → ↓

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• MENA income and transmission cost:

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[€ct/kWh] 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Portugal 17.4 12.8 9.6 8.9 8.3

Italy 18.7 13.8 10.3 9.6 8.9

Spain 17.4 12.8 9.6 8.9 8.3

Turkey 18.7 13.8 10.3 9.6 8.9

Greece 17.4 12.8 9.6 8.9 8.3

CSP Europe 18.0 13.3 9.9 9.2 8.6

Marokko 14.9 11.0 8.2 7.6 7.1

Tunesia 15.3 11.3 8.4 7.9 7.3

Egypt 15.1 11.1 8.3 7.8 7.2

CSP Mena 15.3 11.3 8.4 7.9 7.3

[€ct/kWh] 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Portugal 12.8 9.4 7.0 6.6 6.1

Italy 13.7 10.1 7.5 7.0 6.5

Spain 12.8 9.4 7.0 6.6 6.1

Turkey 13.7 10.1 7.5 7.0 6.5

Greece 12.8 9.4 7.0 6.6 6.1

CSP Europe 13.2 9.8 7.3 6.8 6.3

Marokko 10.9 8.1 6.0 5.6 5.2

Tunesia 11.3 8.3 6.2 5.8 5.4

Egypt 11.1 8.2 6.1 5.7 5.3

CSP Mena 11.3 8.3 6.2 5.8 5.4CSP cost with an interest rate of 6%Source: Own calculations, DLR (2009b, p. 84)

CSP cost with an interest rate of 10%Source: Own calculations, DLR (2009b, p. 84)

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[TWh] 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Albania 3 3 3 4 4Austria 60 63 62 57 50Belgium 90 94 95 86 76Bosnia-Herz. 12 13 15 17 20Bulgaria 38 33 34 34 34Croatia 18 19 22 24 27Czech Republic 64 62 64 62 59Denmark 37 42 45 45 45Estonia 15 16 18 20 22Finland 85 86 87 85 81France 500 534 542 506 459Germany 500 529 541 518 483Greece 56 62 68 68 68Hungary 44 45 50 52 54Ireland 37 44 48 47 46Italy 336 364 374 354 327Latvia 15 16 19 21 23Lithuania 21 22 26 28 31Luxembourg 7 8 9 9 9Macedonia 9 9 11 13 16Montenegro 4 5 5 6 8Netherlands 116 127 133 128 120Norway 132 135 133 126 116Poland 143 154 179 197 211Portugal 51 58 65 69 71Romania 55 60 78 95 113Serbia 39 42 49 54 64Slovakia 29 31 36 40 44Slovenia 13 13 16 17 19Spain 270 313 350 362 364Sweden 143 148 151 149 145Switzerland 50 51 48 41 35Turkey 146 202 299 410 541United Kingdom 351 389 413 409 397Total 3,488 3,791 4,087 4,154 4,180

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[€/t] 2030 2050

EC (2007a, p.27) 20 30

EC (2007a, p.56) 105 200

IEA (2008, p.204) n/a 40

IEA (2008, p.204) n/a 160

EC (2007b, p.11) 24 n/a

EREC (2008, p.42) 24 40

EFF 57 100

BAU 24 30

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• Model of the EU30+ network with 105 zones and 1230 lines

• Costs for HVDC transmission

• Seasonal storage (reservoirs)

• Three levels of wind generation


european electricity transmission in 2050 - integration … · european electricity transmission in...

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