european foreign policy quo vadis, europa? eugeniusz smolar the polish institute of international...

European Foreign Policy

Quo Vadis, Europa?

Eugeniusz SmolarThe Polish Institute of International Affairs


Foreign Policy OPPORTUNITIESForeign Policy OPPORTUNITIES

!!! To further EU’s interests and

objectives To strengthen EU’s role in

the world To limit the uncertainties in international relations

2


CHALLENGECHALLENGESS !A task difficult to implementA task difficult to implement

27, 28, … sovereign Member States

Consequences of the Lisbon Treaty

Threats, problems, responsibilities

3

European Foreign Policyand on top of it all…

Present economic and financial crisis !!!

Спасите наше души…

4


27, 28, … and more sovereign Member States

Large and small with:

different history and political traditions,

different foreign relations and…

different 27 geopolitics.

Can the European Union have common foreign policy?

look at the map…

5


THE OBJECTIVE:To make Europe „Whole, free and at peace”…

The consequences of enlargement6 – 7 – 12 – 15 – 27… and growing

7


8


9


10


11


Candidate Countries: • Croatia – 2013• The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia • Turkey (?)

In the future: other countries of Western Balkans?

WHO ELSE? Who knows???

12


The enlargement became

the most successful foreign policy tool of growing European Union.

Broadening the area of peace, stability and economic affluence

Exporting democratic values and benefits of free and open market

13


Lisbon Treaty – BIG Change ! • One amended treaty and not many treaties

• OFFICIAL DESCRIPTION OF INTENIONS: „It is designed to make the EU more democratic, efficient and transparent, and thereby able to tackle global challenges such as security, climate change and sustainable development”.

• More efficient, also in Union’s relations with the world

14


IN FOREIGN AFFAIRS• The EU became a legal entity with capability and

competences towards all external actors: o Other states or groups of states;o International organisations: United Nations,

NATO, OSCE, Council of Europe, IMF, G8 or G20, etc.

15


• Creation of the post of High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy

• Catherine Ashton, High Representative, as Vice-President of the European Commission, ensures the consistency and coordination of the EU external action.

• The High Representative is assisted by the European External Action Service (EEAS) – new diplomatic service.

16

European Foreign Policy THE COUNCIL

THE COMMISSION

THE PARLIAMENT

HIGH REPRESENTATIVE { THE BUDGET }

EUROPEAN EXTERNAL ACTION SERVICE

17


WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE? ЧТО ДЕЛАТЬ???Old and new threats known in a diplomatic

language as challenges• Instability in the Balkans• Afghanistan• Iran• Broader Middle East • Neighbourhood in the South – the Arab Spring• Neighbourhood in the East

18


BIG WORRY:

Energy security including our friend

Further economic developmentand competitiveness dependson it.

19


20

• International organised crime• Cyber attacks• Piracy• Terrorism


TO DEAL WITH ALL THOSE „CHALLENGES” we have Member State’s

• Central and local administration• Police• Security services• Armies• Money • Diplomacies

21


22

COORDINATION CAPACITIES OF THE EUNow we have the European diplomacy

WORK IN PROGRESS

1 year-old babyNatural tensions:With the interests and diplomacies of SOVEREIGN

Member Stateso Particularly of big and active Member States – Germany,

France, United Kingdom


The task is to: Integrate agreed policies at the EU level into:European Foreign and Security PolicyCommon Security and Defence Policy

Trade through norms and regulations, access to the biggest market in the world (some 450 million consumers)

International aid Visa-free travel and controlled immigration Measures against and soft and hard security threats

23


The task:Create EU and services institutions and assure

mechanisms of integration with: Member States’ policies, institutions and services

International bodies and organisations

There is a new relationship between domestic issues, economic development, social stability and foreign policy, f.ex. immigration. Look at Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy or France now.

24


We have to be prepared as we all learned

to expect the unexpected Wars Revolutions Terrorist attacks Energy flow stoppageand we know that…

shit happensshit happens!!25


Our closest friends,Our closest friends,THE AMERICANS THE AMERICANS

should better tell us should better tell us about about THEIRTHEIR plans.plans.

26


It would also helpif we would

know his plans…

27


Or their plans…

28


RUSSIA – EU’s NEIGHBOUR AND PARTNER

Russia’s foreign and defence policy

Difficult relations with the EU, NATO and the U.S. Energy Self-evident Trade WTO membership important EU – Russia Neighbourhood NATO – Russia Neighbourhood – Enlargement? US – Russia Missile Defence, neighbourhood

29


Problematic relations with the sovereign states in our common neighbourhood

30


31

WHY NATO when we discuss the EU?European membership of the EU and NATO


32

Difficulties with formulation of:

EFSP – European Foreign and Security Policy&

CSDP – Common Security and Defence Policy


THE REASONS Generation change – a war in Europe???

Abstract concept after 65 years of peace

Lack of strategic thinking and political will Diverse interests and traditions of MS The EU has interests but can hardly have

common GEOPOLITICS

33


A particular challenge: TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS

NATO is the main mechanism of discussing security and negotiating possible actions;

Majority of EU members wish to strengthen EFSP & CSDP, but without weakening NATO;

Many MS do not wish to see the EU as an actor engaging in hard security.

THE EU HAVE BEEN REGARDED AS A ‘SOFT SECURITY’ ACTOR

34


What has changed lately? Clear weakness of the European defence capabilities.

o The Europeans together have bigger army than the US but can effectively use less than 1/3.

o To many relics of the Cold War strategies: armament and deployments.

o Cuts in defence spending. There are „challenges” and instabilities but no threat

of a major war in Europe. Expeditionary/defence capabilities are now needed.

35


THREATS ARE NOW COMING FROM DISTAND LANDS

There are no illusions that just ”soft power”

will persuade those guys to occupy themselves with something peaceful…

36


MAKE LOVE NOT WAR

37


There were 22 EU missions abroad since the 90th: Military: Bosnia, Chad, off the Somali coast,

completed – in Macedonia and two in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Paramilitary: to reform the security sector in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Guinea-Bissau, completed in the Sudanese region of Darfur.

38


EU missions abroad… Civilian: mainly policing operations, in Afghanistan,

the Democratic Republic of Congo, Bosnia, Kosovo, Macedonia, and Palestine.

EU civilian observers have also been stationed in Georgia since the war of August 2008, as well as at the Rafah border crossing in the Palestinian Gaza Strip.

39


EU Missions Objectives: To save lives (stop the civil war) To mediate in international conflicts To assure stability and help with the reconstruction Nation-building in weak states

EU International Aid – effective tool of EU foreign policy

40


THE CASE OF LIBYA

Not EU operation!French-British led with

international support

41


Britain did not want EU involvement, always investing into the future of NATO;

France did not want NATO and was persuaded

by Obama to accept it;

Germany (and Poland)

decided to go on holidays…

Common approach at its best???

42


43

LIBYA IS NOT A GAME-CHANGER

It is a ‘coalition of the willing’ with France and the UK in the driving seat

The US really took a back-seat (a shock to many) The EU will remain a „soft power” power, like in

Tunisia, Egypt or mediating in the Israeli – Palestinian conflict


The participants in Libya campaign realised their

relative weakness – limited capabilities Will Europe

do something about it??? Probably YES

but not as the EU

for years to come.

44


There could be no such animal…

determined British gentlemen

45


46

There is and… there is no European Foreign and Security Policy at the moment,but we are working on it.

We have o Experienceso Institutional structure

Political will follows the needsCRISIS ALWAYS HELPS


Immediate challenge: the Neighbourhood

SOUTH AND EASTHow to change THREATS into shared OPPORTUNITIES

47


From diverse interests, lack of trust and mutual recriminations to collective responsibility.

We do not pretend to be able to take responsibility for global security.

But we all have to contribute to global security and development.

48


We could build such policy with you

Russia might even join the EU

You are welcome! Thank you for your attention

49

european foreign policy quo vadis, europa? eugeniusz smolar the polish institute of international...

Documents

common foreign policy

foreign affairs

european commission

different foreign relations

eu external action

international relations

post of high representative

parliament high representative