European Market Outlook

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Pietro RadoiaSolar Analyst , Bloomberg NEF

The European PV market outlookSolarPower Summit

Pietro Radoia

March 6, 2019

5 March 6, 2019

Source: Bloomberg NEF

Wind and solar reached 1,000GW (one terawatt) in June 2018

523

19

307

164

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1H2018

GW

Small-scale PV

Utility-scale PV

Offshore wind

Onshore wind

Total:1,013GW

Global wind and solar installations, cumulative to June 30, 2018

6 March 6, 2019

Source: BloombergNEF Note: A quartiling method is used to derive global conservative and optimistic from country extremes. 2018 figures for many countries are still

not certain.

PV installation history and short term forecast

18.328.8 30.6

41.045.0

56.0

75.0

99.0105

117

127130

109

133

146152

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2018 2019 2020 2021

Conservative Optimistic

Europe Japan U.S. China India MENA + Turkey Latam SE Asia Rest of World

GW

Tweak from 'WorldSummary' quartile skew cell (set to 0.25)

Remember to check skew (set to 0.75)

7 March 6, 2019

Global investments in PV new-build

Source: BloombergNEF

71.7

26.3

24.3

14.1

27.5

47.8 51.6

92.4

147

133.6

110.3

134

167.2

134.8

164

122.4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

APAC EMEA AMER

$ billion

8 March 6, 2019

Source: BloombergNEF

PV Capacity additions in Europe

By country By segment

4.4

4.0

2.8

1.70.6

4.5

6.5

14.9

21.2

18.0

10.0

6.8

8.9

6.98.4

11.3

18.0

19.620.6

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Spain Germany Netherlands France Ukraine Other

GW

2.3

6.3

9.4

6.5

14.9

21.2

18.0

10.0

6.8

8.9

6.98.4

11.3

18.0

19.620.6

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Residential (<20kW) Commercial (20kW-1MW) Utility-scale (>1MW)

GW

9 March 6, 2019

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Cumulative PV capacity installed in Europe

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2012 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

GW

Other Europe North Europe Iberia

Italy United Kingdom France

Germany

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2012 20172020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

GW

Small-scale PV Utility-scale PV

By segmentBy country

Source: BloombergNEF

10 March 6, 2019

Solar as % of total electricity generation in 2017

>4%

2-4%

0.1-2%

<0.1%1.6%

1.5%

3.5%

3%

2.4%

2.5%

6.1%

3.5%

7.2%

1.7

%

8.5%

1.5%

1.6%

1.5%

3%2%

5.4%

0.6%

Source: BNEF, RED Eléctrica, BDEW. Note: solar generation in Spain breaks down as 3.2% PV and 2.2% solar thermal generation.

1.7%

2.0%

11 March 6, 2019

Italy: reverse power flow in substations and PV capacity

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

GWPercentage of substations

> 1% of hours > 5% of hours

Source: BloombergNEF, Enel Distribuzione.

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324

PV+Wind Thermal Demand

excess electricity flows reversely from MV to HV

PV+Wind Supply > Demand

Demand = Supply

Average daily electricity demand and supply

breakdown in south Italy, May 2014 (GW)

Frequency of reverse power flows in Italy

12 March 6, 2019

Italy average summer power prices, 2010-2018

Germany average summer power prices, 2010-2018

Summer power prices in the largest PV markets

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

EUR/MWh

2014

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

EUR/MWh

20122010

2018

20142016

2012

20102018

2016

Source: Bloomberg terminal

13 March 6, 2019

Source: Bloomberg Terminal, BloombergNEF Note: Average yearly prices by the hour. The PPA range is a result of conversation with solar developers opting for a 10-15

year hedge product. The PV LCOE range is for a 1-axis tracking project in Southern Europe. Capex assumed: 700-850k Euros/MW, opex at 10-15k/MW/Year, capacity factor:

23.5-25% (DC), unlevered IRR 7-8%. PPA range is a result of interviews and information disclosed on public press releases. The Iberian market is well integrated: Spain and

Portugal had same spot prices for most of the time in 2017.

Average wholesale electricity prices by hour of day, PPA price range and PV LCOEs

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

10-15 Year PV PPA

Euros per MWh

Hour

s

14 March 6, 2019

Source: BloombergNEF, company filings and press releases Note: As of 5 March 2019

Signed PV PPAs in Europe (MW)

Germany, 85

Italy, 538

Northern Ireland,

300

Portugal, 909

Spain, 2301

UK, 41

Total = 4,174MW

15 March 6, 2019

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European market outlook

MODERATORMichael Schmela

Executive Advisor and Head of Market Intelligence, SolarPower Europe

Pietro RadoiaSolar Analyst

Bloomberg NEF

José DonosoGeneral Director

UNEF

Trine Kopstad BerentsenCEO

Norwegian Solar Energy Cluster

Jaap BaarsmaPresident

Holland Solar

Ruud KempenerPolicy Officer

DG ENERGY, European Commission

José DonosoGeneral Director, UNEF

SOLAR POWER SUMMIT

EUROPEAN MARKET OUTLOOK

- PV SPANISH MARKET 2019 -

6th March, 2019

PV SPANISH MARKET 2019

MARKET NICHES

➢ Tenders

Wainting for the new Government

➢ P.P.A.

▪ More of 2.000MW of P.P.A. signed in

less than one year

➢ Merchant

▪ Growing-up

➢ Self-consumption

▪ Elimination of barriers

▪ Growing-up

MAIN FIGURES

✓ Target RES 2030: 42%

✓ Target Electricity RES 2030: 74%

✓ New PV installed capacity 2020-30: 28.000MW

✓ Forescast PV to be installed 2019: + 4.000MW

✓ Forecast PV SC to be installed 2019: 400MW

06/03/2019 SOLAR POWER SUMMIT

EVOLUTION OF INSTALLED POWER IN SPAIN (2007-2030)

06/03/2019 SOLAR POWER SUMMIT

Jaap BaarsmaPresident, Holland Solar

Installed capacity 2010-2018 & pipeline in theNetherlands

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Installed capacity and pipeline-projects MW

Installed Total installed Pipeline

Trine Kopstad BerentsenCEO, Norwegian Solar Energy Cluster

Ruud KempenerPolicy Officer, DG ENERGY, European Commission

European market outlook

MODERATORMichael Schmela

Executive Advisor and Head of Market Intelligence, SolarPower Europe

Pietro RadoiaSolar Analyst

Bloomberg NEF

José DonosoGeneral Director

UNEF

Trine Kopstad BerentsenCEO

Norwegian Solar Energy Cluster

Jaap BaarsmaPresident

Holland Solar

Ruud KempenerPolicy Officer

DG ENERGY, European Commission

European Market Outlook