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European Real Estate Society Conference. The Short term impact of flooding on residential property markets Prof Chris Eves School of Urban Development. Flooding and Property Markets. Previous studies F looding in Australia Brisbane floods 2011 Flooding and media coverage. Brisbane 2011. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
European Real Estate Society Conference
The Short term impact of flooding on residential
property markets
Prof Chris EvesSchool of Urban
Development
Flooding and Property Markets
Previous studies Flooding in Australia Brisbane floods 2011 Flooding and media coverage
Brisbane 2011
Research Methodology Study area Suburb selection Research data Residential market issues
Sale listings Rental listings Sales
Flood Affected SuburbsSuburb Location Status Suburb Location Status
Albion North High Milton North MiddleAscot North High Newmarket North MiddleBulimba South High Oxley West LowChelmer West High Paddington North High
East BrisbaneSouth Middle Redbank
plainsWest Low
Fairfield South Middle Rocklea West LowGraceville West Middle Sherwood West Middle
HerstonNorth Middle South
BrisbaneSouth Middle
Indooroopilly West High St lucia North HighJindalee West Low Tennyson West MiddleKelvin Grove North Middle Toowong West HighMacgregor South Low Yeronga South Middle
Non Flood Affected Suburbs
Suburb Location Status Suburb Location StatusAlexandra Hills
North LowHamilton
North High
Ashgrove North High Joyner West LowBardon North High Kingston North MiddleBracken Ridge
North LowMorayfield
North Low
Carindale South Middle Mt Gravatt South MiddleChapel Hill West High North lakes North MiddleClayfield North Middle Sandgate North MiddleCleveland South Low Spring Hill North High
GrangeWest Middle Sunnybank
HillsSouth Middle
Greenslopes South Middle Wynnum South Low
Research Results Residential property house sales listings Residential property unit sales listings Residential property house rental listings Residential property unit rental listings Residential property house sales transactions Residential property unit sales transactions
Total Flood Property Listings: Units and Houses
1/12/1
11/1
8/111/2
4/111/3
0/112/5
/112/1
1/112/1
7/112/2
3/113/1
/113/7
/113/1
3/113/1
9/113/2
5/113/3
1/114/6
/114/1
2/114/1
8/114/2
4/114/3
0/115/6
/115/1
2/115/1
8/115/2
4/11
0
600
1200
1800
Flood HouseFlood UnitAxis Title
House Listings: Flood v Non Flood
12/01/2011
16/01/2011
20/01/2011
24/01/2011
28/01/2011
1/02/2
011
5/02/2
011
9/02/2011
13/02/2011
17/02/2011
21/02/2011
25/02/2011
1/03/2
011
5/03/2
011
9/03/2
011
13/03/2011
17/03/2011
21/03/2011
25/03/2011
29/03/2011
2/04/2
011
6/04/2
011
10/04/2011
14/04/2011
18/04/2011
22/04/2011
26/04/2011
30/04/2011
4/05/2
011
8/05/2
011
12/05/2011
16/05/2011
20/05/2011
24/05/2011700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
2100
2300
Flood House Non Flood House
Unit Listings: Flood v Non Flood
12/01/2011
16/01/2011
20/01/2011
24/01/2011
28/01/2011
1/02/2
011
5/02/2
011
9/02/2011
13/02/2011
17/02/2011
21/02/2011
25/02/2011
1/03/2
011
5/03/2
011
9/03/2
011
13/03/2011
17/03/2011
21/03/2011
25/03/2011
29/03/2011
2/04/2
011
6/04/2
011
10/04/2011
14/04/2011
18/04/2011
22/04/2011
26/04/2011
30/04/2011
4/05/2
011
8/05/2
011
12/05/2011
16/05/2011
20/05/2011
24/05/2011500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
Flood Unit Non Flood Unit
Flood House Listing Comparison: Suburb Value
12/01/2011
16/01/2011
20/01/2011
24/01/2011
28/01/2011
1/02/2
011
5/02/2
011
9/02/2011
13/02/2011
17/02/2011
21/02/2011
25/02/2011
1/03/2
011
5/03/2
011
9/03/2
011
13/03/2011
17/03/2011
21/03/2011
25/03/2011
29/03/2011
2/04/2
011
6/04/2
011
10/04/2011
14/04/2011
18/04/2011
22/04/2011
26/04/2011
30/04/2011
4/05/2
011
8/05/2
011
12/05/2011
16/05/2011
20/05/2011
24/05/2011200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Lower Value Flood Middle Value Flood Higher Value Flood
Comparison Low Value House Listings: Flood v Non Flood
12/01/2011
16/01/2011
20/01/2011
24/01/2011
28/01/2011
1/02/2
011
5/02/2
011
9/02/2011
13/02/2011
17/02/2011
21/02/2011
25/02/2011
1/03/2
011
5/03/2
011
9/03/2
011
13/03/2011
17/03/2011
21/03/2011
25/03/2011
29/03/2011
2/04/2
011
6/04/2
011
10/04/2011
14/04/2011
18/04/2011
22/04/2011
26/04/2011
30/04/2011
4/05/2
011
8/05/2
011
12/05/2011
16/05/2011
20/05/2011
24/05/20110
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Lower Value Flood Lower Value Non Fllod
Comparison Middle Value House Listings: Flood v Non Flood
12/01/2011
16/01/2011
20/01/2011
24/01/2011
28/01/2011
1/02/2
011
5/02/2
011
9/02/2011
13/02/2011
17/02/2011
21/02/2011
25/02/2011
1/03/2
011
5/03/2
011
9/03/2
011
13/03/2011
17/03/2011
21/03/2011
25/03/2011
29/03/2011
2/04/2
011
6/04/2
011
10/04/2011
14/04/2011
18/04/2011
22/04/2011
26/04/2011
30/04/2011
4/05/2
011
8/05/2
011
12/05/2011
16/05/2011
20/05/2011
24/05/20110
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Middle Value Flood Middle Value Non Flood
Comparison Sales Listing High Value Suburbs
12/01/2011
16/01/2011
20/01/2011
24/01/2011
28/01/2011
1/02/2
011
5/02/2
011
9/02/2011
13/02/2011
17/02/2011
21/02/2011
25/02/2011
1/03/2
011
5/03/2
011
9/03/2
011
13/03/2011
17/03/2011
21/03/2011
25/03/2011
29/03/2011
2/04/2
011
6/04/2
011
10/04/2011
14/04/2011
18/04/2011
22/04/2011
26/04/2011
30/04/2011
4/05/2
011
8/05/2
011
12/05/2011
16/05/2011
20/05/2011
24/05/2011150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Higher Value Flood Higher Value Non Flood
Rental Listings
Total Flood Property Rental Listings: Units and Houses
12/01/2011
16/01/2011
20/01/2011
24/01/2011
28/01/2011
1/02/2
011
5/02/2
011
9/02/2011
13/02/2011
17/02/2011
21/02/2011
25/02/2011
1/03/2
011
5/03/2
011
9/03/2
011
13/03/2011
17/03/2011
21/03/2011
25/03/2011
29/03/2011
2/04/2
011
6/04/2
011
10/04/2011
14/04/2011
18/04/2011
22/04/2011
26/04/2011
30/04/2011
4/05/2
011
8/05/2
011
12/05/2011
16/05/2011
20/05/2011
24/05/20110
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Flood House Flood Unit
House Rental Listings: Flood v Non Flood
12/01/2011
16/01/2011
20/01/2011
24/01/2011
28/01/2011
1/02/2
011
5/02/2
011
9/02/2011
13/02/2011
17/02/2011
21/02/2011
25/02/2011
1/03/2
011
5/03/2
011
9/03/2
011
13/03/2011
17/03/2011
21/03/2011
25/03/2011
29/03/2011
2/04/2
011
6/04/2
011
10/04/2011
14/04/2011
18/04/2011
22/04/2011
26/04/2011
30/04/2011
4/05/2
011
8/05/2
011
12/05/2011
16/05/2011
20/05/2011
24/05/20110
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Flood House Non Flood House
Unit Rental Listings: Flood v Non Flood
12/01/2011
16/01/2011
20/01/2011
24/01/2011
28/01/2011
1/02/2
011
5/02/2
011
9/02/2011
13/02/2011
17/02/2011
21/02/2011
25/02/2011
1/03/2
011
5/03/2
011
9/03/2
011
13/03/2011
17/03/2011
21/03/2011
25/03/2011
29/03/2011
2/04/2
011
6/04/2
011
10/04/2011
14/04/2011
18/04/2011
22/04/2011
26/04/2011
30/04/2011
4/05/2
011
8/05/2
011
12/05/2011
16/05/2011
20/05/2011
24/05/20110
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Flood Unit Non Flood Unit
Comparison Low Value House Rental Listings: Flood v Non Flood
12/01/2011
16/01/2011
20/01/2011
24/01/2011
28/01/2011
1/02/2
011
5/02/2
011
9/02/2011
13/02/2011
17/02/2011
21/02/2011
25/02/2011
1/03/2
011
5/03/2
011
9/03/2
011
13/03/2011
17/03/2011
21/03/2011
25/03/2011
29/03/2011
2/04/2
011
6/04/2
011
10/04/2011
14/04/2011
18/04/2011
22/04/2011
26/04/2011
30/04/2011
4/05/2
011
8/05/2
011
12/05/2011
16/05/2011
20/05/2011
24/05/20110
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Lower Value Flood Lower Value Non Flood
Comparison Middle Value House Rental Listings: Flood v Non Flood
12/01/2011
16/01/2011
20/01/2011
24/01/2011
28/01/2011
1/02/2
011
5/02/2
011
9/02/2011
13/02/2011
17/02/2011
21/02/2011
25/02/2011
1/03/2
011
5/03/2
011
9/03/2
011
13/03/2011
17/03/2011
21/03/2011
25/03/2011
29/03/2011
2/04/2
011
6/04/2
011
10/04/2011
14/04/2011
18/04/2011
22/04/2011
26/04/2011
30/04/2011
4/05/2
011
8/05/2
011
12/05/2011
16/05/2011
20/05/2011
24/05/20110
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Middle Value Flood Middle Value Non Flood
Comparison High Value House Sales: Flood v Non Flood
12/01/2011
16/01/2011
20/01/2011
24/01/2011
28/01/2011
1/02/2
011
5/02/2
011
9/02/2011
13/02/2011
17/02/2011
21/02/2011
25/02/2011
1/03/2
011
5/03/2
011
9/03/2
011
13/03/2011
17/03/2011
21/03/2011
25/03/2011
29/03/2011
2/04/2
011
6/04/2
011
10/04/2011
14/04/2011
18/04/2011
22/04/2011
26/04/2011
30/04/2011
4/05/2
011
8/05/2
011
12/05/2011
16/05/2011
20/05/2011
24/05/20110
50
100
150
200
250
Higher Value Flood Higher Value Non Flood
Sales
Total Residential Property Sales
12/01/2011
15/01/2011
18/01/2011
21/01/2011
24/01/2011
27/01/2011
30/01/2011
2/02/2011
5/02/2
011
8/02/2
011
11/02/2011
14/02/2011
17/02/2011
20/02/2011
23/02/2011
26/02/2011
1/03/2
011
4/03/2011
7/03/2
011
10/03/2011
13/03/2011
16/03/2011
19/03/2011
22/03/2011
25/03/2011
28/03/2011
31/03/2011
3/04/2
011
6/04/2
011
9/04/2
011
12/04/2011
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Flood Affected Non Flood Affected
House Sales: Flood v Non Flood
12/01/2011
15/01/2011
18/01/2011
21/01/2011
24/01/2011
27/01/2011
30/01/2011
2/02/2011
5/02/2
011
8/02/2
011
11/02/2011
14/02/2011
17/02/2011
20/02/2011
23/02/2011
26/02/2011
1/03/2
011
4/03/2011
7/03/2
011
10/03/2011
13/03/2011
16/03/2011
19/03/2011
22/03/2011
25/03/2011
28/03/2011
31/03/2011
3/04/2
011
6/04/2
011
9/04/2
011
12/04/2011
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Flood Affected Houses Non Flood Affected Houses
Comparison Low Value House Sales: Flood v Non Flood
12/01
/2011
19/01
/2011
26/01
/2011
2/02/2
011
9/02/2
011
16/02
/2011
23/02
/2011
2/03/2
011
9/03/2
011
16/03
/2011
23/03
/2011
30/03
/2011
6/04/2
011
13/04
/2011
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Low Value House Flood Low Value House NF
Comparison Middle Value House Sales: Flood v Non Flood
12/01
/2011
15/01
/2011
18/01
/2011
21/01
/2011
24/01
/2011
27/01
/2011
30/01
/2011
2/02/2
011
5/02/2
011
8/02/2
011
11/02
/2011
14/02
/2011
17/02
/2011
20/02
/2011
23/02
/2011
26/02
/2011
1/03/2
011
4/03/2
011
7/03/2
011
10/03
/2011
13/03
/2011
16/03
/2011
19/03
/2011
22/03
/2011
25/03
/2011
28/03
/2011
31/03
/2011
3/04/2
011
6/04/2
011
9/04/2
011
12/04
/2011
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Middle Value House Flood Middle Value House NF
Comparison High Value House Sales: Flood v Non Flood
12/01
/2011
15/01
/2011
18/01
/2011
21/01
/2011
24/01
/2011
27/01
/2011
30/01
/2011
2/02/2
011
5/02/2
011
8/02/2
011
11/02
/2011
14/02
/2011
17/02
/2011
20/02
/2011
23/02
/2011
26/02
/2011
1/03/2
011
4/03/2
011
7/03/2
011
10/03
/2011
13/03
/2011
16/03
/2011
19/03
/2011
22/03
/2011
25/03
/2011
28/03
/2011
31/03
/2011
3/04/2
011
6/04/2
011
9/04/2
011
12/04
/2011
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
High Value House Flood High Value House NF
Sales to Listing Percentage: Low Value Suburbs
1/12/2
011
1/19/2
011
1/26/2
011
2/2/2011
2/9/2011
2/16/2
011
2/23/2
011
3/2/2011
3/9/2011
3/16/2011
3/23/2
011
3/30/2
011
4/6/2011
4/13/2
0110.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
Lower Value Flood Lower Value
Sales to Listing Percentage: Middle Value Suburbs
1/12/2
011
1/19/2
011
1/26/2
011
2/2/2011
2/9/2011
2/16/2
011
2/23/2
011
3/2/2011
3/9/2011
3/16/2011
3/23/2
011
3/30/2
011
4/6/2011
4/13/2
0110.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
Middle Value Flood Middle Value
Sales to Listing Percentage: High Value Suburbs
1/12/2
011
1/19/2
011
1/26/2
011
2/2/2011
2/9/2011
2/16/2
011
2/23/2
011
3/2/2011
3/9/2011
3/16/2011
3/23/2
011
3/30/2
011
4/6/2011
4/13/2
0110.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
Higher Value Fllod Higher Value
Conclusions The number of sale listings falls immediately following the
flood for affected suburbs, with the fall in house listings greater than the fall in unit listings.
Non affected suburbs show an increase in sales listings immediately after a flood.
After the initial major fall in listings, the listings in the flood affected suburbs increase at a greater rate compared to the non flood suburbs
Listings in the lower value suburbs decline for a 5 week period, 4 weeks for the middle value suburbs and only 3 weeks for the high value suburbs, with the increase considerably greater than equivalent non flood suburbs
Conclusions Rental listings in the flood affected suburbs decline
significantly in the 3 to 5 weeks following the flood, especially for units. Flood victims appear to prefer to rent in the same location. Those flood victims who leave the area tend to rent units rather than houses, particularly the high value market.
In the week following the flood there was no change in the number of sales in the non flood suburbs, but a decrease of 40% in the flood affected suburbs.
After a month, sales in the flood affected suburbs increased by 60%, compared to 20% for non affected suburbs
Conclusions The impact on property sales is greater in the low
and middle value suburbs compared to the higher value suburbs. This could be a factor of insurance
Lower value suburbs have the greatest variation in sales to listings, especially for the first 6 weeks flowing the flood, at which point the markets tend to trend in similar way