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Europe’s next shore: the Black Sea region after EU enlargement Mustafa Aydin published by the European Union Institute for Security Studies 43 avenue du Président Wilson F-75775 Paris cedex 16 phone: + 33 (0) 1 56 89 19 30 fax: + 33 (0) 1 56 89 19 31 e-mail: [email protected] www.iss-eu.org Occasional Paper 53 June 2004

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Europe’s next shore:the Black Sea regionafter EU enlargement

Mustafa Aydin

published by

the European Union

Institute for Security Studies

43 avenue

du Président Wilson

F-75775 Paris cedex 16

phone: + 33 (0) 1 56 89 19 30

fax: + 33 (0) 1 56 89 19 31

e-mail: [email protected]

www.iss-eu.org

Occasional Paper

n°53June 2004

In January 2002 the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) was created as a Paris-based autonomous agency of the European Union. Following an EU Council Joint Actionof 20 July 2001, it is now an integral part of the new structures that will support the fur-ther development of the CFSP/ESDP. The Institute’s core mission is to provide analysesand recommendations that can be of use and relevance to the formulation of EU policies.In carrying out that mission, it also acts as an interface between experts and decision-mak-ers at all levels.

Occasional Papers are essays or reports that the Institute considers should be made avail-able as a contribution to the debate on topical issues relevant to European security. Theymay be based on work carried out by researchers granted awards by the EUISS, on contri-butions prepared by external experts, and on collective research projects or other activitiesorganised by (or with the support of) the Institute. They reflect the views of their authors,not those of the Institute.

Publication of Occasional Papers will be announced in the EUISS Newsletter and theywill be available on request in the language - either English or French - used by authors.They will also be accessible via the Institute’s Website: www.iss-eu.org.

The European Union Institute for Security StudiesParis

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© EU Institute for Security Studies 2004. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be repro-duced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical,photo-copying, recording or otherwise without the prior permission of the EU Institute for SecurityStudies

ISSN 1608-5000

Published by the EU Institute for Security Studies and printed in France by L’Alençonnaised’Impressions, Graphic design by Claire Mabille (Paris)

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Europe’s next shore:the Black Sea regionafter EU enlargement

by Mustafa Aydin

The author is Associate Professor of International Relations at the Faculty of Political Science,

Ankara University. He was UNESCO Fellow at the Richardson Institute for Peace Studies, UK

(1999), Fulbright Scholar at the JFK School of Government, Harvard University (2002), and

Alexander S. Onassis Fellow at the University of Athens (2003). His most recent works include three

co-edited volumes on Turkey’s Foreign Policy in the 21st Century (2003); Overcoming theSecurity Dilemma in the Aegean (2004) and Turkish-American Relations (2004). He

wishes to extend his gratitude to the EU Institute for Security Studies for making this paper possible,

and thanks the Institute’s research fellows, in particular Dov Lynch, for fruitful discussions.

Occasional Papers

n°53June 2004

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Contents

Summary 3

Introduction 5

Enlarged European Union and the wider Black Sea 9

2.1 The enlargement process and the EU’s external relations 9

2.2 European interest and involvement in the wider Black Sea 12

Regionalisation and regional cooperation around the Black Sea 19

3.1 The Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC) organisation 22

3.2 Non-BSEC cooperation in the Black Sea region 25

Conclusions 29

4.1 Recommendations for change in the Black Sea 30

4.2 Recommendations for the EU 31

Annexes 35

a1 The Black Sea and neighbouring countries (map) 35

a2 Abbreviations 36

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Summary Europe’s next shore: the Black Sea region after EU enlargement

With its mosaic of problems, and their potential consequences, the wider Black Sea region is one

of the more important challenges that the enlarged European Union will face. So far, the EU

and the Black Sea region are linked together by a member state (Greece) and accession coun-

tries (Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey), as well as special relations with Ukraine and Russia.

Once Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey become EU members, the Union will directly border the

Black Sea, accounting for half of its coastline. The question now is not whether but rather when

the EU will become a Black Sea power. As such, it will have to develop policies for regional issues

and deal with threats to regional stability, because it will be virtually impossible to prevent vari-

ous crises around the Black Sea from affecting EU Europe. Finding ways to prevent likely desta-

bilising factors from arising at the regional level and dealing with them before they affect the EU

area will be a trial for the enlarged Union.

Although the EU has so far consistently favoured individual country approaches in the

region, this paper proposes that it should develop a regional approach towards the Black Sea

and enhance its institutional linkages with regional organisations in order to ensure the smooth

transformation of the troublesome states in the wider Black Sea region into viable and stable

entities, and to facilitate their further integration into the emerging European architecture.

This would allow the EU to deal with inherently regional problems within compact regional set-

tings, consistent with the regional approach it has adopted in northern Europe, the Mediter-

ranean, and South-Eastern Europe.

Creating a unique ‘Black Sea component’ within the EU, combining a number of member

countries, negotiating and non-negotiating accession countries, partner countries and non-EU

(with and without the intention to apply for membership) countries, would allow the EU to

deal more efficiently with enlargement and post-enlargement problems in a vast region from

South-Eastern Europe to the shores of the Caspian Sea. It would form a balanced grouping

where none of the countries feels itself excluded from the benefits of further integration into the

EU and where the EU itself would not need to decide its final borders once and for all. This

would enable the EU to retain its most important trump card and to continue to push for fur-

ther reforms and transformation in its ‘Black Sea neighbourhood’ without promising member-

ship options.

Within the region, the Black Sea countries have, since the end of the Cold War, created a

multitude of intergovernmental and non-governmental organisations and cooperation

schemes. With the recent enlargement of the European Union, the region stands to benefit from

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the experience and stability of the latter. The EU is set to extend its borders to the last of

Europe’s seas where it faces a new region that has diverse problems. The Black Sea Economic

Cooperation (BSEC) organisation, bringing together 350 million people in an area covering 20

million square kilometres, is the most comprehensive and institutionalised structure within the

region. Since its initiation in 1992, it has succeeded in creating an extensive cooperation scheme

in one of the most conflict-prone regions of the post-Cold War world. Despite the number of eth-

nic-political conflicts the region has faced, the BSEC, with its wide-ranging interests and

declared intention of cooperating closely with the EU, has been able to establish a permanent

dialogue between its member countries and a spirit of cooperation towards mutual economic

benefits.

The EU has so far resisted calls to develop a regional approach towards the Black Sea and

actively participate to the Black Sea Economic Cooperation organisation. Now is the right time

to reconsider the EU position within the ‘wider Europe-neighbourhood’ context, and to start

fully integrating this problematic but energy-rich and strategic region firmly into the EU

mould.

Europe’s next shore: the Black Sea region after EU enlargement

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Introduction

The European Union (EU) has undergoneanother round of enlargement, which clearly

will not be its last. Every enlargement so far notonly brought new members and territories tothe Union, affecting its inner structures, butalso created new borders, neighbours and prob-lems, forcing it to meet unique challenges andgenerating new dynamics. The latest round,completed in May 2004 with the accession of tennew members,1 is even more problematic since ittakes the EU into a completely new geographyand a set of neighbours with which it has so farhad limited experience. The sixth (expected to becompleted with Romania and Bulgaria by 2007)and seventh (to be achieved in a longer time-frame with currently non-negotiating accessioncountry, Turkey) rounds of enlargements willextend the EU even further to the East – to theshores of the Black Sea.

This will make the EU a Black Sea player,sharing its riches as well as its problems withinstability-prone states. Taken together, theseenlargements will transform the shape of theEuropean continent, drawing borders betweenthe EU and non-EU Europe more or less perma-nently. As the EU is fast approaching its finalborders, not only the member states, but alsothose left out are looking apprehensively to seewhat the implications of enlargement will be

and how the EU will proceed with its externalrelations. How the EU handles being trans-formed from a ‘Western’ European institutionto a Europe-wide entity will determine futuredevelopments across wider Europe, includingnon-EU Mediterranean, Black Sea and Cau-casian countries.2

Situated at the crossroads between Europeand Asia, as well as Russia and the Middle East,and linked to southern Europe with access tothe Mediterranean and to Central Europethrough the Danube River/Canal system, theBlack Sea is more than a region of local strategicsignificance, representing ‘an axis of increasinggeo-political importance in the enlarging Euro-pean Union’.3 Lying at the centre of aMackinder-type ‘geopolitical heartland’ as wellas a Huntingtonian style of civilisational faultline, dotted with various ethnic and politicalconflicts, the Black Sea region has in the pastplayed a major role in shaping European history.The diversity of people living side by side for cen-turies has been both a source of potential con-flicts and of cultural enrichment. Since antiq-uity, when Jason and the Argonauts went insearch for the Golden Fleece, Europeans haveshown great interest in the region. For them, ithas been a source of awe, fear, threat and trade –all at the same time.

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1 Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia.2 The term ‘wider Europe’, as used in this paper, refers to a political rather than geographical region, and is ‘wider’ than the EU Commission’scurrent definition of ‘wider Europe’, including the Caucasus. See, ‘Wider Europe-Neighbourhood: A New Framework for Relations with ourEastern and Southern Neighbours’, Communication from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament, COM(2003) 104final, Brussels, 11 March 2003.3 EU Commission, Press Release, Brussels, IP/01/1531, 31 October 2001. A political construction rather than a simple geographical space,the Black Sea region includes riparian states (Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine) as well as nearby states (Albania,Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Greece, Macedonia, Moldova, Serbia and Montenegro), affected by and effecting developments across a broadregion from South-Eastern Europe to the shores of the Caspian. For semantic reasons rather than political-geographical significance, in thispaper, I have used ‘Black Sea’, ‘Black Sea region’, ‘Black Sea area’ and ‘wider Black Sea’ interchangeably. ‘Black Sea Basin’ on the other handcovers almost 2 million square kilometres and includes parts of 19 countries: Albania, Austria, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria,Croatia, Czech Republic, Georgia, Germany, Hungary, Macedonia, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine,and Serbia and Montenegro.

4 For further analysis of regional problems and their relevance to Europe see Mustafa Aydin, ‘Sources of Insecurity and Conflict in theCaucasus and the Black Sea Region’, Turkey Insight, November 2001, pp. 125-47; and ‘Volatile Politics and Constancy of Instability in theCaucasus and its Effects on the Mediterranean Stability and Security’, in Antonio Marquina and Hans Guenter Brauch (eds.), TheMediterranean Space and Its Borders: Geography, Politics, Economics and Environment (Mosbach, Afes-Press & Madrid, UNISCI, 2001), pp. 167-98.

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The relevance of the area for the EU hasincreased since the end of the Cold War for anumber of reasons. First of all, located at thecrossroads between Europe and Asia, the BlackSea had been a zone of conflict and confronta-tion. During the Cold War, it lay on the frontierof East-West rivalry, and the overwhelming pres-ence of the superpowers provided stability,albeit strained, in the region for more than fortyyears. In the post-Cold War era, however, it hasbecome more complicated and difficult to man-age, as the demise of the Soviet Union unleashedtensions that the Cold War had suppressed andmasked. As a result, most of the surroundingcountries were thrown into conflict and/or leftdestitute. Most of the open conflicts followingthe end of the Cold War have now ebbed, yetnone of them has been resolved. Thus, theregion remains riddled with dormant conflictswaiting to be solved or to re-explode. Contestedborders, mixed national and ethnic groups,enforced migration, economic deprivation,widespread unemployment, authoritarianregimes, bad governance and competition fromoutsiders for influence continue to pose risksfor regional security. Other volatile and wide-spread elements, such as poverty, corruption,organised crime and territorial claims, threatencontinuously to undermine both the existingregimes and the equilibrium in the region. Theconsequences of such an event would be feltthroughout Eurasia and would have a signifi-cant impact on Europe.4 The territorial, nation-alistic, ethnic and religious disputes in theregion since the end of the Cold War have pro-vided for various flash-points (formerYugoslavia, Transnistria, Crimea, South Osse-tia, Abkhazia, Chechnya, Nagorno-Karabakh,etc.) from one end of the region to the other.Existing conflict resolution and peacekeepinginstruments such as the UN, OSCE and NATO,as well as the security and confidence-buildingagreements like the CFE Treaty, have not been

adequate to deal with the these new/old chal-lenges, and have so far been only partially suc-cessful in containing (not solving) them.

Secondly, since antiquity the region hasalways been a backyard of one power or theother, or has witnessed a competition betweengreat powers to dominate it. It saw the domi-nance of the Byzantine, Ottoman, and finallyRussian Empires that successfully closed it tothe outside world for many years. A similar situ-ation existed during the Cold War – except forTurkey, the Black Sea was surrounded by theSoviet Union and its satellites, largely closing itto outside influence and interaction. The funda-mental geopolitical changes since the end of theCold War, however, have led to an entirely newsetting in the wider Black Sea area, and openedthe possibility of establishing a truly pluralistinternational future for the region for the firsttime since antiquity. This, together withregional organisations to compensate for theinherent weaknesses of broader internationalco1lective security arrangements, raises hopefor future cooperation and stability.

There are geostrategic reasons to link the‘Black Sea’ area (in the strict geographical sense,consisting only of the six littoral states) with thewider geographic areas of the Caucasus, theCaspian, and Eastern and South-EasternEurope when dealing with the political and eco-nomic security and stability of the region.Although there is no doubt that South-EastEurope, the Black Sea, the Caucasus and theCaspian are separate regions in the turbulentpost-Soviet Eurasia, with different politicaldynamics and plenty of internal diversity andconflicts, the working definition of ‘Black Searegion’ used in this paper, tracing the interplayof economic, political and strategic interests ofthe various actors across these areas, has consid-erable utility as a framework for describing andexplaining the complexity of this important anddynamic area.

Europe’s next shore: the Black Sea region after EU enlargement

The area remains of interest and concern toRussia, which is ever-sensitive to external influ-ence in, or the possibility of actual physicalthreats to the region. For years, the immediatesurroundings of the Black Sea region were con-trolled by Moscow. Today, as a result of theUSSR’s disintegration and geopolitical realign-ments, the number of political, economic andmilitary actors who can influence the region’sfuture has multiplied, while Russia’s borderswith the Sea have diminished. Within theemerging geopolitical equation, various factorspush the newly independent countries and for-mer Soviet satellite states to gravitate geopoliti-cally away from their historic Russian/Sovietbond. Among others, the combined effects ofgeographic proximity, economic opportunity,cultural ties and political expediency gentlypush the evolution of the new states in a westerlydirection, toward historical-political prefer-ences that were interrupted by the USSR’s seal-ing off of these areas to its own advantage.

The existence of mostly Western-basedmultinational oil companies in the CaspianBasin, at the eastern end of the Black Sea region,indicates the increased Western interest in gain-ing access to Caspian oil and gas through theBlack Sea. What happens in and around theBlack Sea region affects Western (thus Euro-pean) interests. While the possibility of transfer-ring oil and gas from large-scale deposits toindustrialised Europe raises hopes for regionaleconomic development and prosperity, at thesame time it gives substance to ‘the belief thatwhoever secures the major share of oil pipelinetransit will gain enhanced influence not onlythroughout the Black Sea and the CaspianRegions, but also on a global political scale.’This increases concerns for the future stabilityof the region. In terms of regional geopolitics,control movement through it, represents a prizeof considerable value, which lowers the thresh-old of possible armed conflicts erupting in the

region.5 Consequently, rivalry over the CaspianBasin energy resources, transport routesthrough and around the Black Sea, interactionwith many regional conflicts in the South Cau-casus, and international involvement in theseconflicts, confer on the region a unique geopo-litical interest, harbouring various threats toregional and international peace and stability.

Moreover, problems emanating from thewider Black Sea region – ranging from environ-mental disasters and the smuggling of drugs,people and guns across the region to ethnicallybased conflicts, border problems and demo-graphic challenges – have the potential to spillover into the EU area, threatening a disruptionof the smooth functioning of the EU’s economyand its political stability. With the latest roundof enlargement and further enlargementsplanned in the near future, these issues acquireever-greater urgency for the EU, which mustfind ways to avoid an escalation of various prob-lems before they affect member countries.

Accordingly, this paper will look at two inter-related issues. First, the questions addressed are:what importance does this region have for theEU and why should EU member countries beinterested in it? In this context, the various prob-lems the EU will face after its sixth round ofenlargement and its involvement as an institu-tion so far in the wider Black Sea area will beexplored. Second, the ability and the potential ofthe countries of the region to cooperate witheach other and the EU through institutionalisedsettings will be explored. In this context, variousregional cooperation schemes, with or withoutEU involvement, since the end of the Cold War,will be summarised to provide background forthe argument that there has emerged a regionalidentity in and around the Black Sea which iscoherent and compact enough for the EU totake seriously. The EU may exploit this regionalidentity in order to move towards a regionalinstitutionalised cooperation scheme which

5 Charles W. Blandy, ‘The Caucasus Region and Caspian Basin: Change, Complication and Challenge’, Sandhurst, The Royal MilitaryAcademy, 1998, p. 4; and Clive Schofield and Martin Pratt, ‘Claims to the Caspian Sea’, Jane’s Intelligence Review, February 1996, p. 75.

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Introduction

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will induce regional countries to continue toadapt to EU norms and standards without nec-essarily demanding the prospect of member-ship. In conclusion, the paper offers proposals

for consideration within the EU and Black Seacircles aimed at enhanced cooperation betweenthe EU and Black Sea countries.

Europe’s next shore: the Black Sea region after EU enlargement

2

Enlarged European Union and the wider Black Sea

Since the end of the Cold War, the Black Sea asa region has become an important area for

the European Union, not only because most ofthe Black Sea countries have established variousforms of cooperation on different levels with theEU, but also since the region borders both theenergy-rich Caspian Basin and the conflict-prone Caucasus, thus acting alternately as agateway and a barrier. The latest round of EUenlargement, completed in May 2004, brings theEU even closer to the region, raising doubts andquestions for both the EU and the regionalcountries about how to proceed with their rela-tions. This section will look first at the implica-tions of EU enlargement for the region and iden-tify the complications it may cause on bothsides. The remainder of the section will sum-marise and assess the EU’s activities in theregion so far. In this context, the factors andconsiderations that force the EU to consider agreater role in the region will also be explored.

2.1 The enlargement processand the EU’s external relationsThere is a general recognition that the EU isapproaching its final borders, and while therecould be further enlargements, there wouldinevitably be long in coming. This semi-perma-nent new geography, apart from internal prob-lems of transformation, will call for new and cre-ative policies towards those states that are left(either permanently or temporarily) out of the

EU borders, so that they do not feel abandonedand continue to interact with the EU Europe.While doing so, the EU has to aim at not creatingnew dividing lines in Europe but at bringingneighbouring countries closer. In order to feelsecure within its new borders, the EU has to fos-ter stability in wider Europe. Unless areasaround the EU are stabilised politically andtransformed economically, the ramificationswill be clearly felt within the EU.

In the past, the EU has found innovative waysto deal with the problems of expansion for itsimmediate environs and has created institu-tional linkages with neighbouring countries in away that ensures their cooperation on crucialissues and continual transformation towardsEU norms.6 Euro-Mediterranean cooperationin the form of the Barcelona process, the North-ern Dimension, Central and Eastern Europe,and the Stability Pact for South-East Europe, areresults of this policy. They have created instru-ments that enable outsiders to participate inand benefit from the European project. Inreturn, outsiders have strived to reform theirpolitical systems, open up their economies andin general comply with the various norms, rulesand regulations of the EU. This has clearlyshowed on the one hand that those left outsidecan still benefit from close cooperation with theEU, and on the other hand that the EU does notneed to enlarge indefinitely ‘to be able to imposeits orders on others’.7

The related issue of ‘regionalisation’ of theEU’s external relations has been a somewhat

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6 Hiski Haukkala, ‘A Hole in the Wall? Dimensionalism and the EU’s “New Neighbourhood Policy” ’, UPI Working Papers, 41, 2003,pp. 7-8.7 Ibid., p. 8. See also William Wallace, ‘Europe after the Cold War: Interstate Order or Post-Sovereign Regional System?’, Review ofInternational Studies, vol. 25, no. 5, 1999, pp. 201-23; and Ole Wæver, ‘Imperial Metaphors: Emerging European Analogies to Pre-Nation-State Imperial Systems’, in Ola Tunander, Pavel Baev and Victoria Ingrid Einagel (eds.), Geopolitics in Post-Wall Europe: Security, Territory andIdentity (London: Sage, 1997), pp. 59-93.

8 Haukkala, ‘A Hole in the Wall?’, p. 2.9 Romano Prodi, ‘A Wider Europe – A Proximity Policy as the Key to Stability’, Speech delivered to the Sixth ESCA-World Conference ‘Peace,Security, Stability – International Dialogue and the Role of the EU’, Brussels, 5-6 December 2002.10 ‘Wider Europe-Neighbourhood: A New Framework for Relations with our Eastern and Southern Neighbours’, Communication from theCommission to the Council and the European Parliament, COM(2003) 104 final, Brussels, 11 March 2003. In the Communication, theCommission offered ‘enhanced relations’ to its neighbours based on shared values. The aim is closer integration between the EU and itsneighbours. To achieve this, the Commission, in return for adaptation of EU norms and standards, offers closer economic integration andprospect of achieving the so-called ‘four freedoms’ without decision-making powers to the countries in the ‘wider Europe’. For furtherevaluation of the Wider Europe-New Neighbourhood policy see Judy Batt et al., ‘Partners and neighbours: a CFSP for a wider Europe’, ChaillotPaper 64 (Paris: EU Institute for Security Studies, September 2003).11 Javier Solana, EU High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy, ‘A secure Europe in a better world’, report to theEuropean Council, Thessaloniki, 20 June 2003.

12 See ‘Council Conclusions on Wider Europe – New Neighbourhood’, 16 June 2003; http://europa.eu.int/comm/external_relations/we/doc/cc06_03.pdf.

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unintended consequence of successive enlarge-ment processes. As the Union has enlargedbeyond the critical number of countries, whereall the members were more or less interested inevery region, the inevitable result has been thatsome members have felt more interest in, andpassion and capability for, issues close to theirborder than others would. Thus, while Germanyhas appeared to be more interested in Centraland Eastern Europe, Spain, Italy, Greece andFrance have been instrumental in introducingMediterranean-related issues into the EUagenda, just as Finland has been more interestedin ‘northern’ issues. However, following theEU’s biggest enlargement so far, there are con-cerns that the new members may also bring intheir own ‘dimensions’, which might createcompetition among members devoting theirenergies to different ‘dimensions’ or ‘neigh-bourhoods’ of the EU, thus creating a multitudeof different approaches in the EU’s external rela-tions. There are also fears that the further‘dimensionalisation’ of the EU’s external rela-tions might come to signify ‘a form of exclu-sion’, in a sense that a state might end up as apartner in one of the dimensions if it has nochance of being recognised as a candidate.8 Acrucial problem is that the creation of cleardividing lines between ‘ins’ and ‘outs’ deprivesthe EU of its most important instrument forinfluencing the transformation of its neigh-bours: holding out the possibility of member-ship, however distant, as a prize.

There is also a danger that the partners indimensions might start to see themselves asbeing in an irreversible process leading towards

full membership, and thus come to expect tobecome members once they confirm fully withthe requirements of the EU, whereas the EUmight, for various reasons, have no intention ofaccepting them as members. In the words of thePresident of the European CommissionRomano Prodi, the European Union ‘cannot goon enlarging forever’.9 There will always bestates that are left out. This leads to the relatedand more fundamental questions: where are theborders of the European Union; how can peaceand stability beyond the borders of the EU-Europe be ensured?

Recognising the different challenges that thelatest enlargement could pose to the Union in itsexternal relations, a discussion process withinthe EU was launched in April 2002, which led tothe publication of the Commission’s ‘WiderEurope Neighbourhood’ Communication ayear later.10 The new initiative was discussedwith the non-EU European and ‘Eastern’ neigh-bours at the 16 April 2003 meeting of the Euro-pean Conference, and with ‘Southern’ neigh-bours on 16-17 May 2003 at the Euro-Mediter-ranean Foreign Affairs Conference. During theThessaloniki European Council, the SecretaryGeneral/High Representative, Javier Solana,also presented his ‘vision’ for wider Europe,dealing with political and security aspects of theCommission’s Communication.11 Then theCouncil agreed conclusions on ‘Wider EuropeNew Neighbourhood’ on 16 June 2003, on thebasis of the Commission’s Communication, butalso taking into account the contributionsmade by the High Representative, memberstates and acceding countries.12 Finally, on

Europe’s next shore: the Black Sea region after EU enlargement

9 July, the Commission put CommissionerGünter Verheugen, assisted by a Wider EuropeTask Force, in charge of further developing theconcept of new neighbourhood policy anddrawing up action plans with the countries andregions concerned.13

Although the Commission’s Communica-tion and Solana’s paper have indicated newavenues for the EU in its external relations, theanticipated discussions about how best the EUshould relate to its neighbourhood after thefifth round of enlargement started long agowith the creation of Europe’s ‘Northern Dimen-sion’, mostly as a result of Finland’s apprehen-sion that its concerns could be marginalised inthe EU after the ‘Eastern’ enlargement of theUnion.14 As if to lend credit to this apprehen-sion, Poland, most active of the most recentaccession states, circulated its ideas on‘Enlarged EU’s eastern policy’ as early as March1998, which generated further discussionswithin both academic and diplomatic circles.15

In the South, Malta and Cyprus, who werealready participating in EU’s Barcelona Process,have also expressed, though less loudly, theirinterest in developing EU’s ‘Southern’ or‘Mediterranean dimension’.

In the face of these proposals for ‘over-dimensionalisation’, it appears that the Com-mission has tried to overcome possible clasheswithin the Community by opting for a policythat has not only included the newly proposed‘Eastern dimension’, but also effectively tried tostop further ‘dimensionalisation’ of the EU’sexternal relations. Though the EU’s NorthernDimension and Barcelona process will continue

to exist, the longer-term implication of the‘Wider Europe New Neighbourhood’ initiativewill be that they will gradually merge into a sin-gle external policy.

Although this would be a great leap towardsdeveloping the CFSP, it also lumps a number ofunlikely countries together in EU’s new ‘neigh-bourhood’ in a rather insignificant and in someinstances counter-productive way. Ukraine andMoldova have already expressed their displeas-ure at being included in the same basket as theMediterranean countries that have no member-ship prospects. Similarly, Russia’s position israther ambiguous: on the one hand the EU-Rus-sia strategic partnership is considered sepa-rately from other countries as an existing policyto be reinforced; on the other, the proposed wayto reinforce the EU-Russia strategic partnershipis to implement the new neighbourhood poli-cies.16

The Commission’s new policy proposal canbe criticised not only from the perspective of thecountries it concerns, but also for the countriesit has left out. Most importantly, south Cau-casian countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Geor-gia), which are already members of the Councilof Europe and will be within the immediate‘neighbourhood’ of the EU once the currentnegotiating countries (Bulgaria, Romania)become members, have been left out.17 Clearly,their strategic importance to the EU willincrease as the EU enlarges to the east. Moreover,Caucasian countries, especially Azerbaijan andGeorgia, have a pivotal role to play in the open-ing up of alternative transportation routes fortrade, and oil and gas, from the Caspian and

13 http://www.europe.eu.int/comm/external_relations/we/intro/ip03_963.htm.14 Hiski Haukkala, ‘Towards a Union of Dimensions; The effects of eastern enlargement on the Northern Dimension’, FIIA Report 2/2002,p. 8, argues that, behind the Finnish initiative of September 1997 to establish Northern Dimension, ‘was a desire to ensure that questionsof importance to Finland would be on the EU agenda before an eastward enlargement’.15 For Polish views see, Pawel Kowal (ed.), The EU’s ‘Eastern Dimension’ – An Opportunity for the Idée Fixe of Poland’s Policy? (Warsaw: Centre forInternational Relations, 2002).16 Presentation by Antonio de Castro Carpeno, Principal Administrator, General Secretariat of the Council of the European Union to theConference on ‘The New European Architecture in the 21st Century; Promoting Regional Cooperation in the Wider Black Sea Area’, MilosIsland, Greece, 3-7 September 1002.17 All the Commission was prepared to say about the Southern Caucasus was summarised in the footnote 4 of the ‘Wider Europe-Neighbourhood’ Communication: ‘Given their location, the Southern Caucasus therefore also fall outside the geographical scope of thisinitiative for the time being’.

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Enlarged European Union and the wider Black Sea

18 ‘Council Conclusions on Wider Europe – New Neighbourhood’, 16 June 2003, para. 3; http://europa.eu.int/comm/external_relations/we/doc/cc06_03.pdf.19 Solana, ‘A secure Europe in a better world’, p. 8.20 Council Joint Action 2003/496/CFSP; http://ue.eu.int/pesc/envoye/cv/talvitie/l_16920030708en00740075.pdf.21 Private discussions with EU officials in Brussels, 9-10 October 2003.22 Michael Emerson and Marius Vahl, ‘Europe’s Black Sea Dimension – Model European Regionalism, Prêt-à-Porter’, in Adams et al., Europe’sBlack Sea Dimension, p. 21.23 See, ‘Wider Europe-Neighbourhood’; also ‘Euro-Med Partnership’, Regional Strategy Paper 2002-2006, p. 4; and ‘CARDS AssistanceProgramme to the Western Balkans’, Regional Strategy Paper 2002-2006, p. 4.24 See, the European Council, ‘Common Strategy of the European Union of 4 June 1999 on Russia’, 1999/414/CFSP; and European CouncilCommon Strategy of 11 December 1999 on Ukraine, 1999/877/CFSP.

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Central Asia to Europe. It is therefore importantthat the Caucasian countries should be helpedto prepare for their EU neighbourhood. Recog-nising the problematic nature of the Communi-cation, the Thessaloniki Council of Ministersstatement declared that the position of thesouth Caucasian countries as ‘outsiders’ of the‘new neighbourhood’ would be examined infuture.18 Once that revision takes place, all thewider Black Sea countries will be connected withthe EU in one form or another. In the meantime,the Solana paper tried to remedy this omissionand referred, however briefly, to the SouthernCaucasus as a region ‘which will in due course’become ‘a neighbouring region’.19 Then, as afurther compensatory gesture towards theregion, on 7 July 2003 Heikki Talvitie wasappointed EU Special Representative for theSouth Caucasus, reflecting the Council’s ‘will-ingness to play a more active political role in theSouth Caucasus’.20 His appointment as one ofthe six EU Special Representatives indicates EUmember states’ increasing interest in the region,and the current discussion within Communitycircles already suggests that the South Caucasuswould receive even greater attention in therevised Solana paper.21

2.2 European interest andinvolvement in thewider Black Sea

It has already been mentioned that with theexpected membership of Bulgaria and Romania,and eventually Turkey, the EU will truly become

a Black Sea power, accounting for half of itscoastline, and all the non-EU Black Sea coun-tries will border at least one EU member state. Asthey become EU members, ‘their interestsbecome axiomatically EU interests’.22 Evenbefore that happens, the EU presence in theBlack Sea will shortly become a reality as acces-sion countries (and to a lesser extent Partner-ship and Cooperation Agreement countries)increasingly adopt EU legislation and policies.Moreover, Europe is already connected with thewider Black Sea region in a number of projectsand programmes to such a degree that it isalmost impossible to disentangle these regionsand imagine that problems of the one do nothave an affect on the other.

A key external relations priority for the EU isto promote prosperity, democracy, peace, stabil-ity and security in its immediate environs.23

These aspirations are more urgent for the widerBlack Sea region not only because of the politi-cal, economic, administrative, ecological andsocial challenges with which the basin is faced,but also in view of the recurrent conflicts/insta-bility in the region of the EU’s eastern flank. Thefact that two of the EU’s three Common Strate-gies in external relations to date have concernedtwo Black Sea countries (Ukraine and Russia)attests the region’s importance in EU eyes.24

As mentioned earlier, the EU is concernedthat the clear exclusion of some neighbouringcountries from the EU accession process wouldproduce negative responses and would deprivethe EU of its most effective instrument (eventualmembership) for forcing them to adopt Euro-pean norms and standards, without which theEU would not feel safe within its borders. In the

Europe’s next shore: the Black Sea region after EU enlargement

Black Sea region, apart from the states that theEU has already offered the prospect of member-ship, Ukraine and Moldova have alreadyannounced their interest in the EU, though thelatter is at the moment not inclined to give a pos-itive answer. Russia and Belarus are clearly notinterested in the EU, and South Caucasiancountries are all but totally excluded from theEU forecast, even those countries currently eligi-ble to apply for membership. Short of an inno-vative regional approach, it is not clear how theEU would encourage these states to continue toreform and move closer to the EU norms andsstandards. Though there are currently individ-ual programmes, particularly carefully preparedfor Russia and Ukraine, it is still far from certainthat a clear rejection of Ukraine, which is press-ing for an answer, and South Caucasian coun-tries already refused, where the United Stateshas been playing an increasingly larger role sincethe 11 September events, would not graduallygravitate towards other centres of power – Rus-sia and the United States respectively.25

The EU clearly wishes to extend and deepenits relations with Russia and Ukraine withoutholding out the prospect of membership. TheBlack Sea region could in the East play the samerole that the Northern Dimension has played inextending cooperation with Russia in theNorth. Moreover, it is important to show Russiathat the EU is not coming to the Black Sea withzero-sum intentions. During the Cold War, theSoviet Union was overly jealous about guardingits rights in and around the Black Sea. Non-threatening approaches to the other Black Seariparian states through BSEC since the end ofthe Cold War have eased and lessened its succes-sor’s (the Russian Federation) fears in theregion. It is important not to recreate those con-cerns with the arrival of another ‘great power’ inthe Black Sea for the first time since 1833, whenCzarist Russia forced the Ottoman Empire tosign the Hunkar Iskelesi Treaty, thus effectively

closing the Black Sea to outside powers. Follow-ing the same principle, the Montreux StraitsConvention of 1936, though accepting the gen-eral principle of ‘freedom of the seas’, enumer-ated limitations for the number and the ton-nage of non-merchant ships that non-Black Seapowers can keep at any given time in the BlackSea. Though it will be long, if ever, before the EUdevelops its own naval forces, further develop-ment of the CFSP and the arrival of the EU in theBlack Sea with all its rules and norms is boundto raise a few eyebrows in Moscow.

Apart from enlargement-related issues, anumber of existing concerns in the region linkBlack Sea politics to the EU. First of all, they areconnected via the energy dimension. As Euro-pean dependency on Middle Eastern oil andRussian natural gas continues, together withdeclining North Sea production, the safe anduninterrupted supply of new sources of energyfrom the Caspian Basin through and around theBlack Sea region assumes great importance. Thequestion of the security of Europe’s energy sup-plies inevitable brings a number of relatedCaspian issues to Europe’s doorstep. Theseinclude disagreement on the status of theCaspian Sea; competition among the regionalcountries to host pipelines (among them, EUcandidate countries Bulgaria, Romania, andTurkey, EU member Greece, as well as Russiaand Ukraine) serving Europe and the world mar-kets; and threats to the secure and steady supplyof energy sources as a result of regional rivalriesor domestic instabilities in the region, wouldclearly effect wider Europe, especially once theprojected oil and gas pipelines linking Europewith the Caspian become operational, thuschanging the combination of European energysupply in the longer term.

Environmental concerns emanating fromthe Black Sea region or Europe would also linkthe two regions, which are already recognised bythe Commission’s Danube-Black Sea Basin

25 These concerns have already found resonance within the Commission and the Council of Europe bureaucracy. Personal interviews withvarious EU officials, Brussels, 9-10 October 2003.

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Enlarged European Union and the wider Black Sea

26 EU Commission, ‘Communication from the Commission on Environmental Cooperation in the Danube-Black Sea Region’, COM(2001)615 final, Brussels, 30 October 2001. It concludes that; ‘The environmental degradation of the Danube and Black Sea region requires urgentattention and can only be tackled through a joint effort of environmental rehabilitation, conducted at regional level. This much-requiredeffort will become a prime tool to promote and then secure the sustainable development of the region’.27 Mee, ‘Protecting the Black Sea Environment’, p. 81.28 For example, an official at the EU Council described Chernobyl-type nuclear station owned by Armenia as a threat to the EU countries;personal interview, Brussels, 10 October 2003.

29 European Commission, ‘Directive 2000/60/EC of the European parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2000 establishing aframework for Community action in the field of water policy’, Official Journal of the European Communities, L 327, 2000.30 Mee, ‘Protecting the Black Sea Environment’, p. 120.31 See, ‘Terms of Reference of the DABLAS Task Force for co-operation on water protection in the wider Black Sea Region (DABLAS TaskForce)’, Brussels, 26 November 2001, DABLAS/2001/01rev1; at http://europa.eu.int.32 For more information on IASON initiative, see, RTD Info; Magazine on European Research, no. 38, July 2003, pp. 3-7.

14

Communication.26 When Romania and Bul-garia become members, EU norms regardingenvironmental protection will have to apply tothe Black Sea, ‘protection of [which] and itscoastal environment will became an inescapableresponsibility of the enlarged Community butone that will require cooperation beyond itsfrontiers’.27 This will not only increase EUinvestment on environmental projects, but alsowill have an effect on tanker transportation inthe Black Sea, where current safety require-ments are lower than EU standards. Unless ittakes a regionally based multilateral approach,it is not clear how the EU would convince theregional oil producers (mainly Russia and Azer-baijan, as well as US-based oil majors) to cooper-ate with the EU on tanker safety standards; orhow the EU could ensure that its heavy environ-mental investment in the Danube basin is notwasted without also taking the Dnieper andDon River basins in the wider Black Sea intoaccount. Moreover, the increased risk of tankercollisions, particularly within the TurkishStraits, poses dangers not only to Turkey or theBlack Sea per se, but also to the Aegean andMediterranean Seas, and clearly calls forEurope-wide regional cooperation and solu-tions. Increasing environmental problemsrelated to water scarcity and with radioactivewaste are also growing challenges that maythreaten the wider Europe.28

At the moment, the Black Sea is not evenmentioned in the existing European WaterFramework Directive, though two EU members(Germany and Austria) account for a significantarea of the Black Sea Basin.29 The percentage has

increased even more since Hungary, the CzechRepublic, Slovenia and Slovakia became mem-bers in May 2004, and will rise again when Bul-garia and Romania join around 2007. Althoughthe Commission has been active in providingtechnical assistance to the UN Black Sea Envi-ronment Programme (BSEP) and its own Strate-gic Action Plan through TACIS and PHARE, ithas been very ‘careful to avoid any statementthat may be constructed as a legal obligation toprotect the Black Sea ecosystem’.30 However,this is exactly what is going to happen when Bul-garia and Romania become full members.Recognising this eventuality, the Commissionhas already become an observer in the Black SeaCommission, which oversees the implementa-tion of the 1992 Bucharest Convention for theProtection of the Black Sea against Pollution,and will have to no doubt become signatory to itsoon. In fact, a Danube and Black Sea Region(DABLAS) Task Force was established in March2002 with EU support under the Commission’schairmanship ‘to provide a platform for co-operation for the protection of water and waterrelated ecosystems of the wider Black SeaRegion’.31 This will inevitably change the policy-making process in the region significantly.Finally, in the spring of 2003, the EU, respond-ing to the new reality of the soon-to-be enlargedUnion, launched the IASON (InternationalConference on the Sustainable Development ofthe Mediterranean and Black Sea Environment)initiative to set up a transnational and multi-disciplinary cooperation network to treat andprotect the Mediterranean as well as the BlackSea.32

Europe’s next shore: the Black Sea region after EU enlargement

From the financial perspective, there arealready a number of European companies oper-ating in the wider Black Sea region, so that thenational interests of European states areaffected by the region’s instabilities and struc-tural problems. Integration of the Black Seamarkets with Europe would be a significantadvantage from a purely economic perspective.But beyond that, threats to stability of the BlackSea region, an obvious gateway between energy-rich Central Asia, the Caucasus and Europewithout much alternative, would eventuallyaffect European economies. Therefore, the EU isnaturally interested in the resolution of the sev-eral conflicts in the region and in changing thecode of conduct between regional countries.The multilateral cooperation schemes in theBlack Sea are already creating possibilities forsuch a change: countries that do not have formalbilateral relations (for example Turkey andArmenia, and Armenia and Azerbaijan) are talk-ing to each other and cooperating within theBSEC umbrella. The EU needs to give more sup-port to such formats to help transform theregion from a conflict-prone area on its bordersto a peaceful and stable neighbourhood.

Furthermore, the EU members have alreadydeclared that they are interested in the ‘consoli-dation of state sovereignty and the strengthen-ing of regional stability throughout Eurasia’,which are more or less prerequisites for furtherdemocratisation and economic reform in theregion. The EU has also increasingly emphasisedthat adherence to democratic principles andrespect for human rights are fundamentalobjectives of the EU in the region, and thus con-ditions for its contribution towards the region.In this context, the EU has inserted politicalconditions and human rights clauses into thePartnership and Cooperation Agreementssigned with countries in the region.33 In fact, theEU has been a fairly important instrument inthe creation of civil society and independentmedia in the newly independent states of the

Black Sea. However, development of vibrant andcritical media and civil society has been pre-vented in most of the newly independent states,on the grounds that political liberalisationposes a danger to the state’s existence. The sys-tems of government in the Black Sea regionrange from struggling democracies to authori-tarian regimes. The newly independent countries in the region in particular, following aperiod of instability after independence, havemoved towards centralised, authoritarian andconservative regimes, with a concentration ofpower in the hands of the heads of states.

All this could be more easily tackled withinmultilateral structures with indirect and non-threatening programmes and approaches thanthrough direct bilateral pressures. For example,the EU has failed so far to find ways to affectpolitical reform positively in Belarus, ethnicallyproblematic Georgia, or territorially threatenedAzerbaijan. Conflicts in the South Caucasusaffect in particular trade, security and regionalcooperation. Instability in the North Caucasusonly adds to the problems. For example, thereare numerous Chechen refugees living both inGeorgia and to a lesser extent in Azerbaijan.Their presence is problematic from the human-itarian and political viewpoints. In the widerperspective, all these are related to economicbenefits, obtainable through cooperationamong the regional states, in the sense thatstates that are distracted by domestic orregional instabilities would find it more diffi-cult to concentrate on political and economictransformation, thus losing out on greatertrade and cooperation.

Europe might also be affected by the increas-ing threat of radicalised Islam that is emergingespecially in the northern Caucasus. Apart fromthe fact that the perceived threat of Islamicextremism and related concerns of instability inthe region might cause further postponementof democratisation, thus constraining the rela-tionship between European countries and states

33 For individual Partnership and Cooperation Agreements, see, EU Commission’s External Relations web page at http://europa.eu.int/comm/external_relations/ceeca/pca. Currently, TACIS is the main financial instrument supporting the implementation of PCAs, assistingthe Caucasian countries to strengthen democracy and the rule of law, the consolidation of market economies, and strengthening theiradministrative capacities.

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Enlarged European Union and the wider Black Sea

34 Council of the EU, ‘Action Plan on Drugs between the EU and Central Asian Republics’, Brussels, 25 September 2002, 12353/02CORDROGUE 78 CODRO 1 NIS 107.35 See for example, statements from Romanian President Ion Iliescu to the BSEC Bucharest Summit Conference (30 June 1995), BulgarianForeign Minister Nadejda Mihailova (RFE/RL Newsline, 23 October 1998), former Turkish Prime Minister Tansu Ciller (OMRI Daily Digest,11 February 1997), and Moldavian Foreign Minister Tabacaru (FBIS-EEU, 27 April 2000).

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in the region, there exists an even more salientthreat to European stability. As has been seen inthe past, some groups, whether or not they haveIslamist connections, fighting for their rights,autonomy, national consolidation or independ-ence, might find it more convenient to stage ter-rorist activities in the wider Europe, particularlyto attract Western media attention.

Moreover, illegal immigration, drug traffick-ing and growing criminal activities in generalcause concern in Europe. With the emergence ofthe former Soviet republics as independentcountries, international borders appeared thatwere not well guarded. The border control agen-cies in the newly independent countries haveoften been inefficient and open to corruption.Moreover, low incomes, decreasing social secu-rity and the erosion of public institutions havecreated conditions conducive to crime and cor-ruption. As a result, organised crime networks inthe region have become well established, highlyviolent and increasingly international. What ismore, the region acts as a staging post for muchof the heroin seized in the EU. Recognising thesepotential destabilising effects, in September2002 the EU member states agreed an ActionPlan aimed at combating drug traffickingbetween Central Asia and the EU passingthrough the Caucasus and the BSEC area.34

However, increasing violence throughout theregion linked to drugs and illegal activities is stilla challenge that the EU will have to deal with.

Finally, border regions also pose securityrisks because of the concentration of minoritypopulations across borders. Since many of thecountries in the region have a history ofinterethnic conflict, there exist processes thatdiscriminate against minorities, some of whichhave already opted for armed conflict and seces-sionism that have resulted in further wars andmillions of refugees. None of these separatistconflicts in Karabakh, Abkhazia, South Ossetia,Transnistria or Chechnya has yet been resolvedsatisfactorily, and the prospects are not very

promising. The continuing instability due tothese frozen conflicts continues to feed prof-itable criminal activities (drug trafficking, ille-gal arms trade), terrorism, and further migra-tion. Political stability in the region cannot beguaranteed while these conflicts remainunsolved.

Demographic changes, migratory pressuresand refugee flows are obviously major concernsfor Europe. It is clear that the migration andpopulation displacements emerging as a resultof various conflicts, decreasing standards of liv-ing or environmental catastrophes can createinsecurity, heighten ethnic tensions, underminethe regional social order and consequentlyaffect nearby EU countries. One of the great con-cerns for Europe in this context is the number ofasylum-seekers originating from the northernBlack Sea area, which has increased dramaticallysince 1999.

In a sense, regional cooperation provides ageneral framework within which innovativesolutions to these problems could be more easilyfound than through bilateral connections. Asregional cooperation in the Black Sea region hasbeen essentially an extension of the EU’s philos-ophy that deeper cooperation with neighbour-ing countries can provide national as well asregional stability and growth, serving themutual interests of all countries concerned, theregional approach in the Black Sea might beeven distinctly more successful than the otherregions in which it has already been tried by theEU. Since none of the Black Sea countries (leav-ing aside Russia) misses an opportunity to reit-erate that regional cooperation in the region iscomplementary to its ultimate goal of EU membership,35 the EU has a unique chance,with willing collaborators in the region, tobecome influential and effective. This wasclearly articulated when the regional leaderssigned the Summit Declaration on Black SeaEconomic Cooperation in 1992, in which theydescribed their action as an ‘effort that would

Europe’s next shore: the Black Sea region after EU enlargement

facilitate the process and structures of Euro-pean integration’.36

Most of the institutions of the Black Sea Eco-nomic Cooperation organisation (BSEC), themost successful multilateral cooperationscheme in the region, have even been designedalong the lines of the EU institutions, and itsmembers continually try to strengthen theirinstitutional relationship with the EU, as exem-plified by the Platform for Cooperation betweenthe BSEC and the EU document of April 1999,which listed opportunities for cooperation thatthe BSEC might offer and invited the EU ‘to con-sider the possibility for the European Commis-sion to obtain observer status [in the organisa-tion] that will lay ground for a future structuredrelationship between the BSEC and the EU’.37

Further, during the BSEC 10th AnniversarySummit in Istanbul in June 2002, member coun-tries declared their determination to encourageregional cooperation and to take concrete stepsto increase cooperation with the EU.38 Thus, forregional countries ‘the BSEC is a preparationground for integration with a larger Europe. [Itcould] promote suitable means for the dissemi-nation to and adoption by its members of cer-tain norms, standards and practices as well asprinciples and policies of the EU’.39

In turn, the EU clearly prefers an individualcountry approach to institutional arrange-ments in the region. At present, the EU’s rela-tions with the countries of the wider Black Searegion are guided by a number of differentarrangements, and there is no multilateralframework for coordination and establishing acomprehensive partnership similar to theBarcelona process or the Northern Dimension.As far as the EU is concerned, the Black Sea

region includes a number of different groups ofstates, and has made different forms of agree-ments with them:

EU member state: Greece since 1981;EU accession countries; could still be dividedinto negotiating candidates (Bulgaria andRomania with Europe Agreements signed in1992 and 1993 respectively) and non-nego-tiating candidate (Turkey with AssociationAgreement since 1963 and Customs Unionsince 1995);non-EU countries with Partnership Coopera-tion Agreements but no membership pros-pect for the foreseeable future: Armenia (PCAsigned in 1999), Azerbaijan (1999), Georgia(1999), Moldova (1999), Ukraine (1998) andRussia (1997), three of which (those in theSouth Caucasus) are not even included in theNew Neighbourhood framework;non-EU countries in the Stabilisation andAssociation Process, with eventual EU mem-bership prospects: Albania, Macedonia(applicant for the BSEC membership), andSerbia and Montenegro (applicant for theBSEC membership);Stability Pact countries (Albania, Bulgaria,Greece, Moldova, Romania, Turkey, Macedo-nia, Serbia and Montenegro).

These different types of status in relationswith the EU ‘mean different operating policiesand programmes, legal bases and financialinstruments [for the EU]. To cut across these dif-ferent types raises considerable administrativeand legal complications’.40 Moreover, the indi-vidual Black Sea countries tend to carefullyguard their relative advantages vis-à-vis eachother in their relations with the EU.

36 ‘The Bosphorus Statement’, 25 June 1992, Istanbul, http://www.turkey.org/politics/bsec/nsec8.htm.37 ‘Platform for Cooperation between the BSEC and the EU’, Attachment 3 to Annex V to BS/FM/R(99)1, Tbilisi, 30 April 1999.38 ‘The Istanbul Decennial Summit Declaration’, 25 June 2002; http://www.mfa.gov.tr/grupa/af/bsec12htm.39 Ercan Ozer, ‘The Black Sea Economic Cooperation and the EU’, Romanian Journal of International Affairs, vol. 3, no. 1, 1997, p. 109.40 Emerson and Vahl, ‘Europe’s Black Sea Dimension’, pp. 19-20. The same point was stressed by Michael Emerson during a discussion inCEPS, Brussels, 9 October 2003. He also suggested that streamlining all these different approaches, with different budget lines, woulddecrease the costs for the EU of running uncoordinated programmes in the region, thus increasing, at the same time, amounts to availableto the region as a whole. Although the Commission officials concur with this view, they are nevertheless sceptical, for bureaucratic reasons,about the feasibility of combining all the existing budget lines under a single title for the Black Sea. Personal interviews with the Commissionofficials, Brussels, 9-10 October 2003.

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Enlarged European Union and the wider Black Sea

41 Ibid., p. 19.42 Ibid., p. 20.43 European Commission, ‘Regional cooperation in the Black Sea area: State of play, perspectives for EU action encouraging itsdevelopment’, Communication from the Commission to the Council, COM(97) 597 final, Brussels, 14 November 1997. 44 European Commission, ‘Agenda 2000: For a stronger and wider Union’, Commission communication to the Council, COM(97), 659,Brussels, December 1997.45 Fraser Cameron and Antoinette Primatarova, ‘Enlargement, CFSP and the Convention: The Role of the Accession States’, European PolicyInstitute Network Working Paper no. 5 (Brussels: CEPS, June 2003), p. 8. One official from the EU Commission argued that the BSEC has notdone enough to attract the attention of the EU and that ‘the offer we received is so vague’. An official at the Council argued that as theenlargement process took over priority, the impetus was lost and the people who were more interested in the Commission to see a BlackSea dimension develop, have moved on. Moreover, as the Commission lost some ground with the Santer Commission vis-à-vis the Council,argued Michael Emerson of CEPS, pressures from certain member countries to move on were instrumental, despite the fact that theCommission agrees privately that the EU should include Black Sea regionalism. Personal interviews, Brussels, 9-10 October 2003.

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The negotiating accession candidates,Romania and Bulgaria, receive economicand technical assistance from the EU aimedat preparing them for the EU membership.Turkey has a special financial protocol withthe EU. The non-candidate states of SouthEastern Europe, including Albania, are ben-eficiaries of the CARDS programme offinancial and technical assistance. The CISstates are beneficiaries of the TACIS pro-gramme. The distinctions between theseprogrammes are very marked.41

Not only do they differ in the amounts ofper capita aid they receive from the EU, but alsothe types and cycles of support programmeswould differ greatly, leading to differentadministrative processes and difficulties ofcoordination on issues of multilateral impor-tance. In short, ‘on issues that require multina-tional cooperation among countries with dif-ferent relationships with the EU, the EUapproach poses problems for such regionalcooperation’.42

On the other hand, it was clearly the EUCommission’s intention as far back as 1997 todevelop a ‘Black Sea connection’ with theregional countries when it adopted its Commu-nication on regional cooperation in the BlackSea region, which was defined as ‘Greece, Bul-garia, Romania and Moldova in the west;Ukraine and Russia in the north; Georgia,

Armenia and Azerbaijan in the east and Turkeyin the south’ – clearly BSEC territory. Acknowl-edging the ‘growing strategic importance to theEuropean Union of the Black Sea region’, theCommission expressed ‘its intention to developa new regional cooperation strategy’ (emphasisadded). It further listed the areas in which coop-eration could be promoted as transport, energyand telecommunications networks, trade, eco-logically sustainable development, and justiceand home affairs.43 Further, in its report‘Agenda 2000: For a stronger and wider Union’,the Commission listed the BSEC among theregional initiatives it ‘welcomed and supported’in northern, central and south-easternEurope.44 Also the idea of becoming an observerin the BSEC was floated briefly.

However, while the other initiatives foundadvocates within the EU and were actively sup-ported by the Union in connection with itsenlargement process, the regional approachtowards the Black Sea was in time accorded alower priority. While the EU Commission hasbecome a member of the Council of the BalticSea States and is one of the founding partners ofthe Barents Euro-Artic Council (two organisa-tions that were launched almost simultaneouslywith the BSEC), attempts to get the EU involvedin the same way in the BSEC have been unsuc-cessful and the recent Wider Europe-Neigh-bourhood Communication does not includeany reference to it.45

Europe’s next shore: the Black Sea region after EU enlargement

3

Regionalisation and regional cooperation around theBlack Sea

In an increasingly interdependent world eco-nomic system, regionalisation has been seen

as an agent of further integration and as a cata-lyst for transformation from centrally plannedeconomic systems and totalitarian regimes tomarket economies and democratic institution-alisation. It is also hoped that regional group-ings, with their localised confidence-buildingmeasures, can contribute to geopolitical stabil-ity by facilitating collaborative action againstcontemporary problems (such as organisedcrime, terrorism, and illicit drug and arms traf-ficking) that threaten regional (and thus global)security and stability.46

It is argued that regionalisation can ‘counter-act the establishment of new dividing lines bycreating multi-layered, trans-boundary, cooper-ative networks’.47 Moreover, by dealing withnon-military security issues in the political, eco-nomic and environmental fields, as well as socialand cultural issues, regional organisations builda sense of common interest and, to a certainextent, a shared identity. Clearly, their existencesimply induces their members to develop non-coercive attitudes and ‘reduces the tendency toresort to non-peaceful means in pursuit ofnational interests’.48 By providing forums inwhich state, substate and non-state actors caninteract on a range of issues, they contribute tothe development of regional security. In short,they can enhance security simply by fosteringdialogue, personal contacts and mutual under-standing.

Regional organisations can also play a com-plementary role to broader arrangements likethe EU by preparing their members for futureaccession in the larger organisation throughstronger economic and social foundations forintegration and pre-adoption of certain normsand standards of these organisations.49 In thiscontext, EU candidate countries since the end ofthe Cold War have come to regard regionalorganisations as a means of facilitating mem-bership and have been active participants inbilateral, trilateral, and sub-regional coopera-tion initiatives. By doing so, they have alsoresponded to EU encouragement to developcooperative efforts and good-neighbourly rela-tions prior to their membership. The EU, on theother hand, has hoped to strengthen regionalstability and security by encouraging subre-gional cooperation and urging candidate coun-tries to resolve any unsettled boundary disputesor cross-border minority problems. Thus, withEU encouragement, various Baltic Sea and Bar-ents Sea organisations were grouped under theNorthern Dimension, Mediterranean countrieswere brought together around the Barcelonaprocess and the Stability Pact for South EasternEurope tidied up the Balkans. The missing partof this picture is the region around the BlackSea, where regional countries have been busysince the end of the Cold War in establishing allsorts of multinational regional cooperationschemes. It is thus surprising to see that the EUhas not so far targeted the Black Sea region, with

19

46 For representation of alternative views on regionalisation and its connection with security in the post-Cold War world, see David A: Lakeand Patrick M. Morgan, Regional Orders; Building Security in a New World (Pennsylvania: The Pennsylvania State University Press, 1997).47 Ercan Ozer, ‘The Black Sea Economic Cooperation and Regional Security’, Perceptions, Journal of International Affairs, vol. II, no. 3,September-November 1997, p. 78.48 Ibid., p. 79.49 Ibid., p. 80.

50 Discussions with experts on Black Sea affairs during the International Conference ‘The New European Architecture in the 21st Century;Promoting Regional Cooperation in the Wider Black Sea Area’, Milos Island, Greece, 3-7 September 2002.51 Ralph Clem, ‘The New Central Asia: Prospects for Development’ in Michael Bradshaw (ed.), Geography and Transition in the Post-SovietRepublics (New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1997), p. 165.

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its home-grown regional projects, as one of itsregional initiatives. Even more so because all theBlack Sea countries have expressed their willing-ness to cooperate more closely with the EU on aninstitutional level through their most compre-hensive organisation – BSEC.

Some analysts are opposed to an institution-alised EU connection with the Black Sea coun-tries because, according to them, the area doesnot form a region with a common identity. Theyargue that the Black Sea, an ‘intellectually con-structed region’, is not seen as such from theoutside (by the international community), norfrom inside (by the Black Sea countries them-selves).50 Clearly, for most of the countries in thearea, the ‘Black Sea identity’ has been of second-ary importance to their wider internationalagendas, and more or less all the countries in theregion look for affiliation beyond the regionalstructures. Moreover, there are wide discrepan-cies among the Black Sea countries in economic,political, social and cultural terms. From thisperspective, the Black Sea area has neither inter-nal nor external potential for region-building.Also, what is happening in the Black Sea area,with the BSEC for example, can be considered a‘side-effect of European integration’ rather thanregion-building in itself. In this context, thediversity (of people, cultures, economies, politi-cal systems and indeed geography) within theregion stands out as one of the important rea-sons why the regional countries have, so far,failed to develop a sense of common identity.

On the other hand, all the regions and theregional identities, in a sense, are first and fore-most a construction of region-wide intellectualendeavours. Initially, all regions are created inthe minds of people: intellectual, political, andgovernmental élites as well as business commu-nities. Therefore, whether or not ‘the region’exists geographically in the first place is not aquestion, as there is no definitive list of essen-tials that define a region. It is the political will ofthe interested countries and constant intellec-

tual engagement with the idea of regional iden-tity that turn a geographical area into a(geo)political region. As such, although theusage of the term ‘Black Sea’ to refer to a distinctpolitical region as opposed to a simple geo-graphic area is a fairly recent phenomenon, itwill no doubt generate its own momentum asthe region’s intellectual and political élites con-tinue to use it.

Moreover, the impetus for use of the term‘Black Sea’ to refer to a political region has origi-nated form within the region. This is a source ofstrength, as it does not need outside encourage-ment, auf thus does not create resentmentamong the local people; and also it shows theirwill to interact with each other, recognise eachother as sharing the same geography and inter-ests, and be recognised by others as such. Finally,regions lie where politicians want them to lie.For political reasons and the simplicity they pro-vide, ‘regional definitions are often based onpolitical boundaries, although these boundariesusually encompass important internal differ-ences’.51 When looked at from this perspective,the Black Sea constitutes a region; the will of thegovernments to develop the region was demon-strated by the creation of the BSEC in 1992.However, this does not mean that the area hasalways been a region: it is a new creation much asthe willingness to cooperate in the region. Thus,the Black Sea area is more of a ‘region’ todaythan it was ten years ago.

For historical reasons of division and thefragmented nature of the region in moderntimes, regional cooperation and integrationbetween Black Sea countries have in the pastbeen difficult and tentative. However, since theend of the Cold War, the regional countries haveshown their willingness to work together withinvarious regional cooperative initiatives and anew era of opportunity has come to the fore, cre-ating genuine hope that the region, ‘especiallyafter the 11th of September 2001, [the region]could become an excellent example of how

Europe’s next shore: the Black Sea region after EU enlargement

countries so different from each other cannotonly co-exist but also cooperate closely in manyfields’.52

Though not comprehensive, the followingtable summarises the main part of the institu-tionalised involvement of regional countries

52 Yannis Papanikolaou, ‘Preface’, in Terry D. Adams, et al., Europe’s Black Sea Dimension (Brussels: CEPS, June 2002), p. i.

21

Regionalisation and regional cooperation around the Black Sea

PPaarrttiicciippaattiioonn ooff wwiiddeerr BBllaacckk SSeeaa ccoouunnttrriieess iinn rreeggiioonnaall aanndd sseelleecctteedd iinntteerrnnaattiioonnaall oorrggaanniissaattiioonnss

BBSSEECC EEUU NNAATTOO OOSSCCEE GGUUUUAAMM CCIISS TTaasshhkkeenntt

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WWTTOO CCoouunncciill ooff

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AAllbbaanniiaa X SAA EAPC X X X X X

AArrmmeenniiaa X PCA EAPC X X X X X

AAzzeerrbbaaiijjaann X PCA EAPC X X X O X

BBeellaarruuss EAPC X X X O

BBuullggaarriiaa X A EAPC X X X X X

GGeeoorrggiiaa X PCA EAPC X X X X X

GGrreeeeccee X X X X X X X X

MMaacceeddoonniiaa AC SAA EAPC X X X X X

MMoollddoovvaa X PCA EAPC X X X X X X X

RRoommaanniiaa X A EAPC X X X X X

RRuussssiiaa X PCA EAPC X X X O X

SSeerrbbiiaa &&

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AC SAA X X X O X

TTuurrkkeeyy X N-N A X X X X X X

UUkkrraaiinnee X PCA EAPC X X X O X

X: Member State;

A: Accession Country

N-NA: Non-Negotiating Accession Country;

AC: Applicant Country;

EAPC: Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council;

O: Observer State;

PCA: Partnership and Cooperation Agreement;

SAA: Stability and Association Agreement

53 See ‘The Work Programme of Turkey during Its Chairmanship of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organisation, 1 May–1 November2001’; http://www.mfa.gov.tr/grupa/af/bsec10.htm.54 See ‘BSEC Economic Agenda for the Future: Towards a more consolidated, effective and viable BSEC partnership’, March 2001,BS/SOM/R(01)2, Annex III.

22

since the end of the Cold War. Clearly, theregional countries have shown their cooperativecapacity to act as a region on number of issueareas, and thus deserve to be treated as such byoutsiders, especially the EU. The following sec-tion, which describes various cooperativeattempts in the region, especially in that period,will clearly demonstrate the region-buildingpotential of the Black Sea countries which, ifutilised by the EU, could easily complement itsefforts to create a ‘security-community’ aroundthe EU-Europe, extending its norms and regula-tions without actually providing the prospect offull membership for the regional countries.Moreover, the long experience gained by theregional countries through their cooperationwithin the context of the BSEC, which modelledmost of its institutions on those of the EU,shows the ability and the suitability of theregional countries to cooperate with the EUwithin a more structured and institutionalisedframework.

3.1 The Black Sea EconomicCooperation (BSEC)organisation

Among others, the Black Sea Economic Cooper-ation (BSEC) organisation stands out as themost institutionalised organisation in theregion. Established in June 1992, the BSEC offi-cially became a ‘regional economic organisa-tion’ with an international legal identity on1 May 1999 with the entry into force of its Char-ter. It is the only organisation that includes allsix countries on the Black Sea (Bulgaria, Geor-gia, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine) aswell as five neighbouring countries (Albania,Armenia, Azerbaijan, Greece, and Moldova). Tencountries have applied for full membership(Macedonia and Serbia and Montenegro areclosest to membership), and Austria, Egypt,

France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Poland, Slovakia,Tunisia, BSEC Business Council and the Inter-national Black Sea Club have observer status.

Under the BSEC umbrella, member coun-tries have three interrelated and mutually rein-forcing goals: to achieve cooperation ratherthan conflict, to support regionalism as well asglobalisation and to avoid new divisions inEurope. To this end, member countries haveagreed ‘to create a presumption of cooperationin a region that has much potential for tensionand conflict’.53 The results obtained so far at aninstitutional level, given the region’s history, areindeed impressive, and clearly establish a ‘pre-sumption of cooperation’.

So far, the organisation seems to prefer aproject-based approach, mostly in the area ofeconomic cooperation. The BSEC EconomicAgenda for the Future, adopted by the Councilof Ministers in Moscow in March 2001, listedseveral areas for future cooperation and empha-sised the importance of joint projects whichwould bring in tangible benefits and stimulateinternal reforms and integration of nationaleconomies in the region.54 It stressed that theBSEC would facilitate economic developmentin the region by: (a) implementing regional ortransregional projects that could contribute tothe success of economic reforms and democratictransformation; (b) concentrating on actions,programmes and joint projects, which could beaccomplished in a predictable timeframe; (c)accelerating the transition from feasibility stud-ies stage to project implementation; (d) develop-ing and improving the mechanism of countrycoordinators, as well as other coordinationmechanisms in relevant areas of regional coop-eration; and (e) encouraging transborder coop-eration, aiming at projects and programmes ofinterest to local communities and agreed uponby the member states concerned.

Moreover, as areas needing immediate atten-tion, it highlighted the adoption of macroeco-nomic reforms, the establishment of strong and

Europe’s next shore: the Black Sea region after EU enlargement

resilient financial systems, the adaptation ofexisting economic institutions to the marketeconomy, encouraging support for national sta-bilisation and development programmes, dereg-ulating product and service markets, andimproving capital markets, promoting the use ofnew technologies and encouraging the exchangeof economic experts between member states. In asimilar way, the BSEC Charter sees the organisa-tion’s priority areas as trade and economic devel-opment; banking and finance; communications;energy; transport; agriculture and agro-industry;health care and pharmaceutics; environmentalprotection; tourism; science and technology;exchange of statistical data and economic infor-mation; collaboration between customs andother border authorities; human contacts; com-bating organised crime, the illicit trafficking ofdrugs, weapons and radioactive materials, allacts of terrorism and illegal migration.55

On the other hand, the organisation has alsofrom the beginning aimed at establishing peaceand security in the region, though without actu-ally developing clear-cut and distinctive policies,due to the clear preference of some of its mem-bers not to mix economic cooperation and polit-ical-security issues. However, the 1992 SummitDeclaration announced that the promotion ofeconomic cooperation among Black Sea coun-tries was viewed as a contribution to regionalpeace and security.56 In the words of the manwho thought out the idea of creating a ‘BlackSea Cooperation and Prosperity Region’ in thefirst place, the most important objective of theBSEC is ‘to turn the Black Sea basin into a havenof peace, stability and prosperity’.57 As mostmember countries came to realise that without aviable security dimension and solution to the

region’s many problems the organisation couldnot move ahead, the Decennial Summit of Istan-bul called the Council of Ministers ‘to considerways and means of enhancing contribution ofthe BSEC to strengthening security and stabilityin the region’, thus (hard) security cooperationin the BSEC area is now on the agenda.58

The intention to create a ‘free trade zone’among the BSEC members that was emphasisedearly on proved difficult in practice, as members’existing commitments (towards, for instance,the EU) had to be taken into account. Neverthe-less, in February 1997 the summit of foreign andeconomy ministers in Istanbul made a ‘Declara-tion of Intent for the establishment of BSEC freetrade area’. The European Commissionexpressed its readiness to act as a partner in theproposed free trade zone, but also emphasisedthat it should take place gradually, that existingagreements between individual BSEC countriesand the EU should be taken into account, andthat all the BSEC countries should be admittedto the WTO before a free trade zone was created.As a result, the 2001 BSEC Economic Agenda forthe Future adopted the long-term step-by-stepapproach proposed by the EU Commission.

Although essentially an intergovernmentalorganisation, over the years the BSEC has paidclose attention to developing non-governmen-tal networks and representative bodies aroundthe Black Sea – so much so that establishment ofits parliamentary assembly predated the forma-tion of its Permanent Secretariat (PERMIS) in1994. The Parliamentary Assembly of BSEC(PABSEC) was established in 1993 with parlia-mentarians from 10 of 11 BSEC members (Bul-garian parliamentarians joined the Assembly in1997). The Assembly meets twice a year and has

55 ‘Charter of the Organisation of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation’; http://www.bsec.gov.tr/charter_htm.56 For the full text of the ‘Summit Declaration on Black Sea Economic Cooperation’, Istanbul, 25 June 1992, seehttp://www.mfa.gov.tr/grupa/af/Bsec7.htm.57 Turkish Ambassador (retired) Sükrü Elekdag, ‘Karadeniz Isbirligi ve Refah Bolgesi’, Cumhuriyet, 20 February 1990; and ‘KaradenizEkonomik Isbirligi’, in Sebahattin Sen (ed.), Yeni Dunya Duzeni ve Turkiye (Istanbul: Baglam, 1994), pp. 207-8.58 ‘The Istanbul Decennial Summit Declaration’, 25 June 2002; . In the soft security issues such as organised crime, environmentalprotection, illegal immigration, etc., the BSEC has already been active, which provided member countries additional channels for multilateraldialogue and cooperation. See, Oleksandr Pavliuk, ‘The Black Sea Economic Cooperation: Will Hopes Become Reality?’, in Andrew Cottey(ed.), Subregional Cooperation in the New Europe: Building Security and Solidarity from the Barents to the Black Sea (London: MacMillian, 1999).

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Regionalisation and regional cooperation around the Black Sea

59 http://www.bsec-busines.org/content.asp?cat=43.60 For further details, see, Black Sea Trade and Development Bank Web Site at http://www.bstdb.org/default1.htm.

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three committees: Economic, Commercial,Technical, and Environmental Relations; Legaland Political Relations; and Educational, Cul-tural, and Social Relations. It has its own Secre-tariat based in Istanbul has in time movedbeyond its initial aim of harmonisation of legis-lation required to implement BSEC projects,covering now many initiatives to promote sub-national cooperation. In this context, for exam-ple, the Association of Black Sea Capitals(BSCA) was established following an initiativeby the PABSEC, which aims at strengthening thepluralistic democratic structure and politicalstability in the region.

To involve the private sector in cooperationefforts around the Black Sea, the BusinessCouncil (BSECBC) with the representatives ofbusiness councils from all the BSEC countrieswas established in 1992 to contribute to ‘thegreater integration of the Black Sea to the worldeconomy’.59 It is run by a Board of Directorsheaded by a Secretary General, and has observerstatus in BSEC and its own Secretariat in Istan-bul.

The decision to create the Black Sea Tradeand Development Bank (BSTDB) was taken in1994, though it was not implemented until1998 and become operational in June 1999. Itwas established as an autonomous financialinstitution with an initial capital of $300 mil-lion, expected to rise to $1.5 billion. Greece, Rus-sia and Turkey each have 16.5 per cent of theshares, Romania, Bulgaria and Ukraine 13.5 percent, and Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgiaand Moldova 2 per cent each. BSTDB representsthe financial component of the BSEC and aimsto play a key role in the region with its supportfor project-based regional cooperation initia-tives. It has so far provided more than $100 mil-lion to different regional projects, mainlyrelated to interregional trade.60

Academic cooperation between universitiesof the Black Sea countries was started with theinitiation of the Black Sea Universities Network

in 1997 to identify and enhance intellectualresources badly needed in the region for sustain-able development. It has so far arranged cooper-ation between more than 50 universities. TheBSEC Standing Academic Committee wasestablished in 1998 to promote academic coop-eration and support joint scientific projects.Finally, the International Center for Black SeaStudies (ICBSS) was opened in Athens in 1998to carry out policy-oriented, practical researchin fulfilment of BSEC goals. Also, recognisingthat the different statistical systems within theregion have been the main obstacle to the prepa-ration of comparable data, the CoordinationCentre for the Exchange of Statistical Data andEconomic Information was established in Octo-ber 1993 in Ankara as a unit within the StateInstitute of Statistics of Turkey to collect, coor-dinate, analyse and circulate statistics and eco-nomic information on the region.

Still on the subnational level, cooperationbetween local governments around the BlackSea started in July 1992 with the establishmentof the International Black Sea Club (IBSC) as anon-profit-making organisation involving themayors of towns in the Black Sea region. TheClub aims at stimulating direct contactsbetween companies and enterprises and theexchange of economic and commercial informa-tion. It is also involved in the implementation ofenvironmental protection and supports cul-tural contacts in the region.

In addition, the BSEC has all the usual inter-governmental bodies, mostly adopted from theEU institutions. Its Summit Meetings of Headsof State and Government have so far met irregu-larly (1992, 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999 and 2002).Its main function is to decide the strategic direc-tion of BSEC cooperation at the highest level,such as its establishment in 1992, its transfor-mation into a formal regional organisation in1998, and requesting Council of Ministers in2002 to look into the possibility of giving theorganisation a security dimension.

Europe’s next shore: the Black Sea region after EU enlargement

The main regular decision-making body ofthe BSEC is the Council of Ministers of ForeignAffairs, which meets twice a year, in April andOctober, chaired by the country holding the six-monthly rotating Chairmanship. The BSECChairman is supported by a Committee ofSenior Officials, seconded by member countriesand organised as sectoral Working Groups.61 Toensure continuity, a Troika system with the par-ticipation of past, current and future chairper-sons was introduced in 1995.

The BSEC Permanent International Secre-tariat (PERMIS) was established in Istanbul inMarch 1994 to coordinate BSEC activities underthe guidance of Chairperson-in-Office. It has itsown budget, to which all member states con-tribute. Currently PERMIS does not have legalauthority to become a contracting party onbehalf of the BSEC. It coordinates the activitiesof the Working Groups. At present, ways toincrease its stature and effectiveness are beingdiscussed, to be supported by the establishmentof a Council of Permanent Representatives withpermanent member state delegations accred-ited to the BSEC. To this end, the BSEC Head-quarters Agreement was signed and entered intoforce in August 2000.

3.2 Non-BSEC cooperationin the Black Sea regionIn addition to the BSEC, there are various otherforms of regional bilateral and multilateralcooperation projects and programmes in theregion, with or without the participation ofinternational organisations such as the UN, the

EU and NATO. A number of initiatives werestarted in the early days of the post-Cold Warera, and cooperation on the environment, trans-port, energy infrastructure and soft securityissues especially seems to be thriving at themoment.

Environmental protection is already themost developed area of cooperation both withinthe Black Sea region and also between Black Seacountries and EU member states. Apart from EUsupport for the implementation of the Black SeaEnvironment Programme (BSEP), the crucialrole of the EU in Black Sea environmental pro-tection was reflected in the EU Commission’sCommunication on Environmental Coopera-tion in the Danube-Black Sea Region.62 Thisdocument clearly shows the direct causalitybetween the Black Sea and the regions at the verycentre of the EU, such as Germany and Austria,as well as Central and South-Eastern Europe. Itis clear that the environmental problems of theBlack Sea cannot be solved without the coopera-tion of all the Black Sea Basin countries, ‘eventhough some of them are landlocked’.63

During the Cold War, as the Sea was dividedbetween the communist north and Turkey inthe south, there was little cooperation. Bulgaria,Romania and the USSR tried to cooperate bysigning the Varna Fisheries Agreement in 1959,and Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey cooperatedwith the General Fisheries Council for theMediterranean, but these were ephemeralattempts that did not have any real effect.Another early attempt at environmental protec-tion in the Black Sea was the MARPOL Conven-tion of 1973. Although all the Black Sea coun-tries ratified the agreement, which designated

61 There are currently 15 Working Groups: Agriculture and Agro Industry, Banking and Finance, Combating Crime, Communications,Emergency Assistance, Energy, Environmental Protection, Electronic Communication Network, Health Care and Pharmaceutics, Scientificand Technological Cooperation, Statistical Data and Economic Information Exchange, Tourism Cooperation, Trade and EconomicDevelopment, Transport, Academics-Untapped Regional Resources, SMEs.62 EU Commission, ‘Communication from the Commission on Environmental Cooperation in the Danube- Black Sea Region’, COM (2001)615 final, Brussels, 30 October 2001.63 Laurence David Mee, ‘Protecting the Black Sea Environment. A Challenge for Cooperation and Sustainable Development in Europe’, TerryAdams et al., Europe’s Black Sea Dimension (Brussels: CEPS, 2002), p. 107. About 60 per cent of contaminators reaching to the Black Sea comethrough Danube and its subsidiaries, and about 30 per cent from the non-coastal countries: Austria, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina,Croatia, Czech Republic, Serbia and Montenegro, Germany, Hungary, Moldova, Slovakia and Slovenia. The largest polluters, though, areRomania and Bulgaria, two Black Sea accession countries to the EU.

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Regionalisation and regional cooperation around the Black Sea

64 Ibid., pp. 88-90.65 The Convention had three attached protocols: Protocol on Protection of the Black Sea Marine Environment against Pollution from Land-Based Sources; Protocol on Cooperation in Combating Pollution of the Black Sea Marine Environment by Oil and Other Harmful Substancesin Emergency Situations; and the Protocol on the Protection of the Black Sea Marine Environment against Pollution by Dumping.

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the Black Sea as a ‘specially protected area’, it hasnot so far had any chance of being implementedbecause of lack of financial support and theneed to delimit the national exclusive economiczones.64

After the end of the Cold War, in 1992 six lit-toral states of the Black Sea signed theBucharest Convention for the Protection of theBlack Sea against Pollution, which was later rat-ified and came into effect in 1994.65 The BlackSea Commission was established in 1995 tooversee its implementation, but its real activa-tion was delayed until 2000 when it opened asmall secretariat of two people in Istanbul. Inthe meantime, all the Black Sea countries hadcome together in Odessa, Ukraine, in April 1993

to prepare a common policy framework for envi-ronmental protection and as a result the BlackSea Environment Programme was establishedin June 1993 with the support of the UN and theEU. The BSEP secretariat shares the same build-

ing as the Black Sea Commission’s secretariat inIstanbul, and has conducted an analysis of envi-ronmental problems (Transboundary Diagnos-tic Analysis) in the region, at the end of which itdeveloped a Strategic Action Plan (SAP), signedby the six littoral states in 1996, for the rehabili-tation and protection of the Black Sea. Also, tooversee local implementation of the BSEP,regional activity centres have been established inall the Black Sea countries, though most of themstill lack the financial means to be of much use.

Europe’s next shore: the Black Sea region after EU enlargement

The Black Sea Basin

A significant aspect of this cooperation has beenthat, at the time of its signature, Ukraine andRussia were engaged in a war of words over thefate of the former Soviet Black Sea Fleet, andGeorgia was engulfed in a civil war in whichthere were clear signs of Russian meddling. Itwas gratifying to see that environmental con-cerns finally transcended the ‘high political’issues.66 A separate regional council of coopera-tion on environmental issues between Bulgaria,Greece, Macedonia, Romania and Turkey wasagreed upon in December 2000, and in Novem-ber 2001 all 19 countries in the Black Sea Basincame together and signed the Declaration onWater and Water Related Ecosystems in theWider Black Sea Region.67

In the meantime, the EU has developed andsupported a number of multilateral infrastruc-ture programmes for wider Eurasia that centreson the Black Sea. The Transport CorridorEurope-Caucasus-Asia (TRACECA), launchedin 1993 to link the eight former Soviet countriesof Central Asia and the Caucasus with Europe,has been developing transport alternatives onthe East-West axis across and around the BlackSea region. With its EU-funded technical assis-tance, TRACECA has helped to attract interna-tional investment for vast transport infrastruc-ture projects in the region.68 Moreover, at thethird European Conference of Ministers ofTransport in 1997, the Black Sea was chosen asone of the four Pan-European Transport Areas(PETrAS). Later on, representatives from theeight participating countries (the six littoralstates plus Greece and Moldova) and the EUCommission established a Steering Group in1999 to oversee the implementation of varioustransport projects with EU support. Finally,four sectoral working groups and a technicalsecretariat (housed by the PERMIS) were estab-lished and an annually revised Action Plan wasdrafted.

INOGATE (Interstate Oil and Gas Transportto Europe), launched in 1995, is another EU-funded regional programme that concentratestechnical assistance and some investment sup-port for hydrocarbon infrastructure in the widerBlack Sea region. At its first summit in 1999, anUmbrella Agreement was signed on the develop-ment of hydrocarbon transportation networksbetween the Caspian Basin and Europe acrossthe Black Sea region. The agreement allowscountries not covered by EU’s TACIS pro-gramme to join infrastructure projects, and hasbeen signed so far by 21 countries, including allthe BSEC members except Russia. A secretariatfor INOGATE was set up in Kyiv in November2000.

The EU Commission, under its SYNERGYprogramme, initiated the establishment of theBlack Sea Regional Energy Centre (BSREC) inFebruary 1995. In addition to the Commission,Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Geor-gia, Greece, Moldova, Romania, Russia, Turkeyand Ukraine joined immediately, Macedoniasigned in January 1999 and Serbia and Mon-tenegro in October 2001. Based in Sofia, theCentre aims at developing cooperation in theenergy field between Black Sea region countriesand the EU, as well as among the countriesthemselves.69 The Centre promotes develop-ment and implementation of market orientedenergy policy, encourages restructuring ofmonopolies, supports energy efficiency projectsand advocates policy reforms in line with EUEnergy Directives. It has so far supported vari-ous project-based energy ventures around theBlack Sea, and organised training sessions forregional experts.

In June 2000, six Black Sea countries decidedto establish a multinational naval force, theBlack Sea Naval Cooperation Task Group(BLACKSEAFOR) to cooperate in search andrescue operations in the event of maritime

66 Mee, ‘Protecting the Black Sea Environment’, p. 95.67 See http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/enlarg/pdf/danube_declaration.pdf.68 For further information on TRACECA activities around the Black Sea, see Black Sea Pan-European Transport Area (BS-PETrA) Web Site,at http://www.bs-petra.org/6.69 See http://www.bsrece.bg/newsbsrec/firstpage.html.

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Regionalisation and regional cooperation around the Black Sea

70 See Black Sea Naval Cooperation Task Group web page at http://www.blackseafor.org/backgr.htm, p. 2.71 Joint press release issued after the Third Experts Meeting of the BSEC countries, Istanbul, 26 February 1999; http://www.Photius.com/blakseafor/990226_mfa.html.72 For further information see http://www.unesco.org/tolerance/medmet.htm.

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emergencies, mine-clearing, humanitarianassistance, environmental protection, goodwillvisits between Black Sea countries and peacesupport operations in conjunction with the UNor the OSCE.70 In addition, the mission of theforce was described by the cooperating countriesas ‘to contribute to the further strengthening offriendship, good relations and mutual confi-dence among the Black Sea littoral states, as wellas to improve peace and stability in the region’.71

First proposed by Turkey in 1998, the agreementwas finally signed in 2 April 2001 and the forcebecame operational in September 2001, initiallywith a Turkish commander, to be replaced in linewith member countries’ six-monthly rotatingpresidencies. The force has no permanent head-quarters, but at least one joint exercise is plannedeach year. Although the force is intended for theBlack Sea, it could be deployed to other seas if theparticipating states agreed.

Apart from these multilateral cooperationinitiatives, a number of Black Sea countries haveset up trilateral meetings, a Romanian initiative,for cooperation on regional issues. Trilateralcombinations exist between Romania-Moldova-Ukraine, Romania-Bulgaria-Turkey,Romania-Poland-Ukraine, Romania-Bulgaria-Greece and Romania-Hungary-Austria. More-over, most of the BSEC members have alsojoined other subregional organisations such asthe Royaumont Process, SECI, SEECP, StabilityPact, CEI, CEFTA, and GUUAM (Georgia,Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, and Moldova).Moreover, Albania, Bulgaria, Macedonia,Greece, Italy, Romania, and Turkey signed anagreement to set up a multinational peacekeep-ing force for South-Eastern Europe (SEEBRIG)in September 1998, involving a number of BSECand NATO member countries. The force wasactivated in August 1999.

Following a UNESCO initiative, the Mediter-ranean and Black Sea Regional Tolerance Network was established in September 1996 as anon-governmental peer group to fight againstintolerance, discrimination and violence. Thegoals of the Network are ‘to coordinate the inter-national community’s response’ to the above-mentioned challenges, as well as ‘research andmonitoring in support of policy-making andstandard-setting action by member states’.72 Ina similar vein, a Black Sea NGO Network(BSNN) was established in 1998 as a regionalindependent, non-political and non-profit asso-ciation of NGOs from all the Black Sea littoralstates to create and bring the importance of ahealthy Black Sea and a sustainable future to thepublic’s attention. The BSNN currently num-bers 54 regional NGOs, which are concerned atthe decreasing environmental quality of theBlack Sea as well as the need to adopt democraticvalues and practices in the Black Sea countriesthat follow the ideals of sustainability.

In mid-2000, at a conference organised byBSEC member states, participants decided tocreate and implement a joint agricultural strat-egy to guarantee food in the region in case offamine. In May 1999, the Regional Centre forCombating Trans-border Crime, in associationwith SECI, was opened with the participation ofsix BSEC members and two applicants (Macedo-nia and Serbia-Montenegro) as well as BSEC asan organisation. Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan,Bulgaria, Georgia, Moldova, Turkey andUkraine cooperate in the Federation of Euro-Asian Stock Exchanges to encourage invest-ments within their region and create jointinvestment guarantee schemes. Finally, discus-sions for drafting a Convention for Fisheries inthe Black Sea are currently under way betweenthe Black Sea littoral states.

Europe’s next shore: the Black Sea region after EU enlargement

4

Conclusions

The Black Sea remains a region in the making,with plenty of conflicts. Active encourage-

ment and support of the Black Sea cooperativeprocess is very important in this regard, and theEU has an important role to play in the promo-tion of stability in the wider Black Sea region.For successful region-building and construct-ing an environment more conducive to regionalpeace and stability, it is essential to link theBlack Sea region with the EU, not only in therealm of energy (oil and gas), but also in the fieldof infrastructure (construction of highways andrailways, linking electricity grids, etc.) toenhance the connection and interactionbetween Europe, the Middle East, the Black Seaand the Caspian region. There is a clear politicaldimension in this cooperation, since the devel-opment of alternative regional infrastructuresparticularly strengthens the independence ofthe newly independent countries (which are inthe transition from central to market economyand from totalitarianism to democracy) andenhances their autonomy from outside pres-sures.

One of the most efficient ways to deal withregional security problems would be to establishconflict prevention and crisis managementmechanisms, which could be developed easilywith European help and expertise. Otherwise,the worst-case scenario could include an armedconflict spreading from the Black Sea region(especially from the Caucasus), disruptingregional communication and cooperation, cre-ating further instability and refugees, and even-tually embroiling the EU members in anintractable conflict.

Although diversity of geography, economiccapabilities, political systems and culturalaffinities in the Black Sea may be cited as obsta-cles to successful region-building, what may atfirst sight be seen as weakness, i.e. diversity,could easily become a source of strength if thedifferences are used to complement each otherinstead of creating rifts between states. The EUexperience in complementarily is immense andcould help the regional countries to overcome amutual distrust that is based on differences.

The EU’s insistence on having individuallytailored policies towards the Black Sea countriesis certainly a problem for both the EU and theregional countries to tackle. Changing the EU’spreferred approach will need a concerted effortboth inside and outside the EU. For all the EU’sother ‘regional approaches’ there have beenstrong sponsors within the EU. In the case of theBlack Sea, Greece’s efforts so far have not beenenough to bring about changes.73 It is also moredifficult for the Black Sea, because its mainattempt at regional cooperation, the BSEC, wasnot established with the support and/or initia-tive of the EU. On the contrary, some members,at least at the beginning, saw it as an alternativeto the EU, though these views have nowchanged.

The most important reason for general ignorance of the BSEC in the EU, however, canpossibly be found in the attitudes of the BSECcountries towards the EU. Clearly, the EU playsan important role in the economic and politicalagendas of BSEC member countries. As a result,most BSEC countries are trying hard to improvetheir bilateral ties with the EU, often to the

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73 It was expected both inside the Commission and the BSEC circles that the Greek Presidency during January-June 2003 would bring theissue of institutional connection between the BSEC and the EU on the agenda. However, Greek Presidency did not put it on the table bothbecause they ‘got distracted trying to do so many things’ and ‘did not wish to crowd the agenda of the Thessaloniki Summit in June 2003,where important issues for the EU were discussed’. Interviews with officials from the Commission and the Council of the EU, Brussels, 9-10 October 2003.

74 Personal interviews with the EU officials from the Commission and the Council, Brussels, 9-10 October 2003.

30

detriment of a more regional and multilateralapproach. This attitude, unsurprisingly, hastended to push other initiatives into the back-ground. Moreover, due to the diversified con-nections of the Black Sea countries with the EUin the past, they have all obtained different con-cessions, support and status from the EU. Theydo not wish to lose them by taking a multilateralapproach.

Moreover, the BSEC non-EU candidatecountries in particular are generally (though notuniversally) seen in EU circles as a source ofproblems that they show no intention of tack-ling soon, with or without outside mediation.The EU also points out that it is up to thesecountries to move forward closer to the EU byimplementing various reforms in their politicaland economic systems and attempt at involvingthe EU in their efforts. This has certainly nothappened, especially in the South Caucasiancountries. There is clearly overwhelming agree-ment in EU circles that the region will have toovercome its many problems before it can suc-cessfully develop closer institutional relationswith the EU.74

4.1 Recommendations forchange in the Black SeaWhat, then, should the Black Sea countries do toreceive/attract more attention from the EU?

(1) First of all, as there is already an example of asuccessful region-wide institutionalisationattempt (i.e. the BSEC), the Black Sea coun-tries should continue to strengthen theirregion-building efforts around the BSEC,and concentrate on deepening of the regio-nalisation through cooperation and increa-sed interaction with each other. This wouldsend a clear signal to outsiders of the intention of the regional countries to be seenas a close-knit region, and present a unified

and strong appeal for institutional coopera-tion with the EU.

(2) The BSEC needs to look again at itself andits role in its region, taking into account itsmembers’ national priorities, creating tan-gible benefits and value for them, so thatthey accord priority to region-wide policiesrather than individualistic approaches. Atthe same time, cooperation between theBSEC and the EU would be greatly advan-ced if the BSEC could present to the EU anoverall plan of collaboration embracing allthe wider Black Sea countries, yet takinginto account the individual strategies pur-sued by each country for closer links withthe EU.

(3) Black Sea countries need to bring moreconcentrated pressure to bear on the EU forthe development of institutional ties withthe BSEC. If they want the EU to take theBSEC more seriously, then the regionalcountries should be more forthcoming withtheir support for the BSEC agenda vis-à-visthe EU.

(4) The BSEC should present itself as a conduitbetween the EU and the non-EU candidateBSEC countries to negotiate, facilitate, pro-mote and follow up framework agreementsto prepare its member states for close coope-ration with the EU. This strategy shouldcomplement, not rival, the measure aimed atpromoting schemes for deepening interre-gional cooperation with or without thefinancial support of the EU, and initiatingjoint projects in selected areas, such asenergy, transport, environment, tourism, etc.

(5) Though a specialised regional organisation,the BSEC is still too disorganised in the sensethat there is no clear prioritisation of its areasof interest. It has created no less than 15

Europe’s next shore: the Black Sea region after EU enlargement

working groups, with varying degrees of suc-cess. It should prioritise and select fewerareas where it has more interest and ability tointervene, so that it can present itself as a use-ful interlocutor to other countries and orga-nisations. Energy cooperation, transporta-tion, environmental cooperation, fisheriesand tourism are some such areas. Moreover,it ought to develop a conflict managementsystem, if not a conflict resolution one, as thecontinuing or dormant regional conflictsform the main stumbling block to furthercooperation in the wider Black Sea region.

(6) In various areas where the BSEC can play animportant role (environment, energy coope-ration, soft security, etc.), there exist otherinstitutions outside the BSEC realm, such asBlackSeaFor, Black Sea Environment Pro-gramme, Bucharest Convention, TRACECAand the EU’s INOGATE. These areas and suc-cessful institutional initiatives have to bebrought either into the BSEC realm or coor-dinated to prevent a duplication of effort anddistraction of the EU’s attention becausethere are too many unrelated initiatives.

(7) There is no real locomotive within the BlackSea region to push for further integrationand effectiveness. A dynamic core state isessential for successful region-building. Thisis more related to intellectual and politicalleadership than a centrally located geogra-phical position of prospective core countries.Such a core state(s) should be willing to takethe lead and if necessary meet the costs ofdeveloping a more regional approach andalso a functional nucleus of issues to concen-trate on. Without a clear and forceful direc-tion from a determined leadership, bothregion-building in the Black Sea area and theBSEC organisation stand to lose in the lon-ger run.

4.2 Recommendations forthe EUThe EU on the other hand, should develop amore comprehensive approach towards theregion, moving beyond its Regional Coopera-tion in the Black Sea document of November1997 and covering the following aspects.

(1) The EU should elaborate and implement astrategy directed towards encouragingsubregional cooperation, stability, good-neighbourly relations and economic deve-lopment. It could play a pivotal role in advan-cing regional cooperation among the BSECcountries in particular and eventually inte-grating this group into the wider Europe as aregion. The starting point for this could besetting up of a Black Sea Cooperation Initia-tive (BSCI), along the lines of the Baltic ini-tiative or the Southeast European Coopera-tion Initiative (SECI), bringing together allthe BSEC member states and other countriesfrom the wider Black Sea region.

(2) As the various unresolved dormant conflictsof the region present the main obstacle tofurther regional cooperation and enhance-ment of peace and stability on the doorstepof EU Europe, the EU should help in resol-ving them by offering its good offices as a wayout of the current deadlock. The appoint-ment of the EU Special Representative to theSouth Caucasus is a start. However, the EUmight also have to consider becoming moreinvolved in the solution of the Transnistrianconflict, where the Union might have moreleverage as a result of Moldova’s positionregarding EU membership. ‘Europeanisa-tion’ has been successful as an instrument ofconflict resolution and democratisation inCentral and Eastern Europe since the end ofthe Cold War.75 It is now time to enlarge the

75 See Bruno Coppieters et al., ‘European Institutional Models as Instruments of Conflict Resolution in the Divided States of the EuropeanPeriphery’, CEPS Working Document 195 (Brussels: CEPS, July 2003).

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perimeter and try to apply it to the countriesof the wider Black Sea. After successful solu-tion of the various conflicts, the next stepwould be to support the rehabilitation of theformer conflict zones.

(3) The EU should continue to support grass-roots civil initiatives and NGO activities, aswell as emphasising human and minorityrights, in an attempt to further consolidatecivil society and democratisation in theregion. As part of the ethno-political pro-blems in the region stem from the intole-rance of majorities toward minorities, fur-ther democratisation would also contributeto solving the conflicts. Supporting cross-border civil society contacts and initiativeswould be helpful as well. Promoting demo-cracy and human rights, and reducingpoverty, are the only way to ensure long-termstability in the region. Therefore, in order toeliminate sources of political and social ten-sion in the region, the EU should supportreforms aimed at establishing good gover-nance, the rule of law, functioning civil socie-ties and respect for fundamental freedoms.

(4) The EU could help regional states to set upmore efficient border control regimes and anadequate security apparatus to reduce cross-border crime rates. The EU’s experience inthis domain is already extensive and its areaof interest could easily be expanded toinclude the Black Sea region.

(5) Given the importance of multilateral coope-ration in the field of energy and the EU’s needfor diversified resources, it should increaseits support for the implementation of newenergy interconnection network projects inthe region. In this, construction of intercon-nected electricity grids should get as muchattention as the oil and natural gas links havebeen attracting. The main aim for the latter

should be to establish direct, secure andstable connections between the producingfields of the East and the consuming marketsof the West. In doing so, security of supply,competitiveness and protection of the envi-ronment should be highlighted as prioritygoals for the EU.

(6) To overcome infrastructure (legal, commer-cial, transportation, etc.) bottlenecks in theregion and to improve climate for trade andinvestment, the EU needs to prepare a region-wide multilateral cooperation agreement/strategy to complement existing bilateraltreaties, and support projects with anemphasis on regional cooperation. Supportgiven to the promotion of further regionaltrade and economic cooperation would inthe longer run also help build the capabilitiesof the regional states for cooperation as wellas conflict resolution.

(7) Extending trans-European networks (trans-port, energy etc.) to cover all the Black Seacountries, the EU should support develop-ment of regional solutions to transport,energy and environmental problems, as wellas increasing its support for the creation ofsuitable environmental infrastructure forsustainable development.

(8) Finally, following on from the EU’s successfulcooperation with Ukraine on JHA, other BlackSea countries should gradually be incorpora-ted into the EU’s third-pillar activities.

All of these, of course, would require bettercoordination of various EU financial instru-ments (EU Budget, PHARE, TACIS, etc.) that arealready offered to the Black Sea countries, eitherindividually or as part of other groupings. Inorder to incorporate the various aspects men-tioned above into a coherent whole and facili-tate the consolidation of the different budget

Europe’s next shore: the Black Sea region after EU enlargement

lines accordingly, the EU could consider devel-opment of a common position on the Black Searegion as an interim solution before movinginto a more institutionalised regional approachin the medium to long term.

Despite a number of EU-sponsored projects,mainly through TACIS, European involvementin the Black Sea region has been largely limitedto the energy sphere, and lacks a political andstrategic dimension. Although there have beendiscussions among scholars as to whether toconsider the Black Sea countries together witheither South-Eastern Europe or the Mediter-ranean, and the latest strategy paper of JavierSolana tried to develop some ideas regardingselected individual Black Sea countries, therehas been no systematic attempt yet to develop acommon policy towards the region as a whole.On the contrary, there has been reluctance amongEU member countries to recognise even the exis-tence of the region as such, preferring instead todevelop individually tailored policies.76

This paper offers an alternative view to thecurrent EU policy, proposing that the ‘Black Sea’be made a single component within the widerEurope,77 putting together a number of mem-ber countries, negotiating and non-negotiatingcandidate countries, partner countries, andnon-EU countries (with and without an inten-tion to apply for membership). This will allowthe European Union to deal successfully withenlargement and post-enlargement problems ina vast region from South-Eastern Europe to theshores of the Caspian Sea. It will form a balancedgrouping where none of the countries feelsexcluded from the benefits of further integra-tion with the EU, and the EU itself would notneed to decide the border issue once and for all,which would leave out some countries perma-nently. That way, the EU would keep its mostimportant trump card and would be able to con-

tinue to push for further reforms and transfor-mation without actually promising furthermembership options. Moreover, as the BlackSea region already includes three large Euro-pean actors (Russia, Turkey and Ukraine) as wellas a score of smaller ones, the advent of the EU asthe non-belligerent fourth would create ‘a quitebalanced and non-hegemonic [geopolitical] set-ting’,78 favourable to successful region-build-ing, stability and integration. As the EU starts todigest its sixth round of enlargement, it will alsorecognise the need to develop properly struc-tured regional policies and the necessity to bepresent in the shores of all its seas. Moreover, asthe EU approaches its seventh round of enlarge-ment, Black Sea issues will force themselvesonto the EU agenda. Thus, it would be a logicalnext step now to start thinking about the BlackSea as a region.

Within the region, the BSEC, with its soundpolitical base and the clear political will behindits creation, could be successful in developing afunctional, comprehensive and project-orientedregional organisation if given a chance. It is clearthat the main focus of most of the Black Seacountries is their relations with the EU, and theyhave been trying to develop cooperative initia-tives in the Black Sea region that the EU has beenencouraging, since the end of the Cold War, inits neighbouring areas beyond its immediateborders. In the Balkans and the Mediterranean,the EU had to push the regional countries intodeveloping cooperative structures, sometimestaking the lead, e.g. the Stability Pact for SouthEastern Europe. In the Black Sea, regional coun-tries have already demonstrated their willing-ness and ability to create and cooperate withinregional institutional bodies. It would a be pityshould the EU miss the opportunity to turn thisregional cooperative effort, with a small finan-cial contribution, diplomatic support and EU

76 Interviews with EU officials in the Commission and the Council, Brussels, 9-10 October 2003.77 Tsardinidies argues that the Black Sea region, under the current arrangements, is a part of ‘broader Europe’ but not yet ‘wider Europe’.Emerson, on the other hand thinks that it is in the ‘borderland Europe’. See Charalambos Tsardinidis, ‘The BSEC: From New Regionalismto Inter-Regionalism?’, Paper presented at the International Conference ‘The New European Architecture in the 21st Century; PromotingRegional Cooperation in the Wider Black Sea Area’, Milos Island, Greece, 3-7 September 2002, p. 19; and Michael Emerson, The Elephantand the Bear: The European Union, Russia and their Near Abroads (Brussels: CEPS, 2001), pp. 3-4.78 Emerson and Vahl, ‘Europe’s Black Sea Dimension’, p. 32.

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expertise, into a successful region-building exer-cise, which would surely enhance security andstability in this turbulent neighbourhood of theenlarged EU. Clearly, increasing integration ofthe wider Black Sea region into the EU Europewill be a significant achievement in the EU’s newneighbourhood for various political, economic,strategic and security reasons, and the BSEC can

help towards pan-European integration by com-plementing the EU with its regional perspective.For the Black Sea countries, too, the organisa-tion can provide a preparation ground for inte-gration into wider Europe. In short, the BlackSea, with its multidimensional existence, couldbecome an important pillar of overall Europeanarchitecture in a wider Eurasian space.

Europe’s next shore: the Black Sea region after EU enlargement

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Annexes

The Black Sea and neighbouring countries

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Abbreviations

BLACKSEAFOR Black Sea Naval Cooperation Task Force

BSCA Association of Black Sea Capitals

BSEC Black Sea Economic Cooperation organisation

BSCEBC BSEC Business Council

BSEP UN Black Sea Environment Program

BSNN Black Sea NGO Network

BSREC Black Sea Regional Energy Centre

BSTDB Black Sea Trade and Development Bank

CARDS EU Support Programme for the Western Balkans from 2000 to 2006

CEI Central European Initiative

CEFTA Central European Free Trade Agreement

CFSP EU Common Foreign and Security Policy

CFE Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe

CIS Commonwealth of Independent States

DABLAS Danube-Black Sea Region Task Force

EAPC Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council

EU European Union

GUUAM Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Moldova

IBSC International Black Sea Club

ICBSS International Center for Black Sea Studies

INOGATE Interstate Oil and Gas Transport to Europe

MARPOL International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships

NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation

OSCE Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe

PCA Partnership and Cooperation Agreement

PABSEC Parliamentary Assembly of BSEC

PERMIS BSEC Permanent International Secretariat

PETrAS Pan-European Transport Areas

SAA Stability and Association Agreement

SAP Strategic Action Plan

SECI Southeast European Cooperation Initiative

SEE South-Eastern Europe

SEEBRIG South-Eastern Europe Brigade

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37

SEECP South-East European Cooperation Process

SYNERGY Energy Supported Programmes of the European Commission

TACIS EU Technical Assistance to the CIS countries and Mongolia.

TRACECA EU Transport Corridor Europe-Caucasus-Asia

USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics

WTO World Trade Organisation

n°52 Rethinking the Euro-Mediterranean political and security dialogue May 2004Rosa Balfour

n°51 Crisis management in sub-Saharan Africa. The role of the EuropeanUnion April 2004Fernanda Faria

n°50 For our eyes only? Shaping an intelligence community within the EU January 2004Björn Müller-Wille

n°49 EU cohesion in the UN General Assembly December 2003Paul Luif

n°48 Space and security policy in Europe: Executive summary December 2003Stefano Silvestri, Rapporteur

n°47 EU and Ukraine: a turning point in 2004? November 2003Taras Kuzio

n°46 EU-Russian security dimensions July 2003Edited by Dov Lynch

n°45 €uros for ESDP: financing EU operations June 2003Antonio Missiroli

n°44 The Galileo satellite system and its security implications April 2003Gustav Lindström with Giovanni Gasparini

n°43 La question du Cachemire. Après le 11 septembre et la nouvelle donne au Jammu et Cachemire Mars 2003Christophe Jaffrelot et Jasmine Zérinini-Brotel

n°42 L’Union en action : la mission de police en Bosnie Janvier 2003Agnieszka Nowak

n°41 La Bulgarie et la Roumanie dans le Pacte de stabilité Janvier 2002Ralitza Dimtcheva

n°40 Iraq: a European point of view December 2002Martin Ortega

n°39 Iraq: the transatlantic debate December 2002Philip H. Gordon

n°38 Getting there: building strategic mobility into ESDP November 2000Katia Vlachos-Dengler

n°37 From candidate to member state: Poland and the future of the EU September 2002Rafal Trzaskowski

n°36 Optimiser le processus de Barcelone Juillet 2002Dorothée Schmid

n°35 L’ONU au Kosovo : leçons de la première MINUK Mai 2002Eric Chevalier

Occasional Papers

All Occasional Paperscan be accessed via the institute’s website:

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