Europe’s Population in Transition

Population challenges in the wider Europe

Ray Hall

Queen Mary, University of London

Objectives

• To understand Europe’s changing demography and its global context

• Consider changing fertility and its impact on households

• Second demographic transition?

• Challenge of migration

• Policy issues and future for Europe?

Europe in a global context

Fundamental transitions in European demography over last 25 years

End of Soviet Union 1991Accession of 10 central

and eastern European states to EU 2004

Europe’s share of global population declining - from over 13% in 1990 to around 11% today - to estimated 7% 2050

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European demography

• 2005: 815 million (56% EU)

• Very low or declining rates of growth

• 2007: -0.1% (+0.2% N; -0.4% E)

• Pace of migration increased since 2004: out-migration in east; in- migration in west and south Reproduced from European Population Committee of the Council of

Europe (2005) Recent demographic developments in Europe 2005 .© Council of Europe

Fertility

• Driver of low rates of growth

• Western Europe peak fertility 1965 – since then decline, particularly in south, to very low levels

• Since 1989 - central Europe even lower rates - TFR around 1 for part of 1990s

Reproduced from European Population Committee of the Council of Europe (2005) Recent demographic developments in Europe 2005 .© Council of Europe

Fertility: European contrasts

• In 2000s - increase of fertility in north and west – France, Scandinavia, UK (1.8 in 2007)

• Very low rates in south and east (1.3 in 2007)

• But all below replacement levels

• Is low fertility a problem?

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Fertility and second demographic transition

• European fertility has fallen to very low rates

• Why? • Will it change?

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Second demographic transition

• Concept developed 1986 Dirk van de Kaa and Ron Lesthaeghe

• Contrast with first demographic transition (Thompson/Notestein)

• First DTR (from c.1870) economic development/Child King, with fewer ‘high quality’ children

• Second DTR (from c.1970) social change/ individualism/Self King, with delayed or no childbearing; very low fertility

Family and household changes

• Later childbearing• Extra marital childbearing

(over 40% Scandinavia, UK)• No marriage or later marriage• Rise in divorce (1 in 3 marriages end in

divorce UK)• Impacts on households –

more one- and two- person households

Family and household change

Later childbearing• Particularly in north and

west - UK and Spain oldest mothers (29+)

Extra marital births • 1970 very low (8% UK)• 1990 15% Europe; • 2004 over 28% and

over 40% Sweden, UK, France; low S. & E.

Reproduced from European Population Committee of the Council of Europe (2005) Recent demographic developments in Europe 2005 .© Council of Europe

Changing families

• Declining marriage rate: low rates in much of Europe; decline in central/eastern Europe from 1990

• and later marriage - 28 and older, but east - west contrasts

Reproduced from European Population Committee of the Council of Europe (2005) Recent demographic developments in Europe 2005 .© Council of Europe

Changing families

• Rising divorce rates from 1970 in northern Europe

• North - south contrast - function of law and social attitudes

Reproduced from European Population Committee of the Council of Europe (2005) Recent demographic developments in Europe 2005 .© Council of Europe

Impact on households• Rising numbers

• Smaller size

• Changing structure

• more non-traditional:

1 person; LAT;

• Same sex; unrelated

• Increasing fluidity

• Spatial impacts of household

change

Increasing life expectancy

• Continuing improvements in life expectancy, esp. among older age groups and women

• East-west contrasts in life expectancy; south has some of highest life expectancies

Reproduced from European Population Committee of the Council of Europe (2005) Recent demographic developments in Europe 2005 .© Council of Europe

Ageing populationLow fertility and high life

expectancy lead to higher proportions of older people

By 2050 EU will have: lost 48m people of working age, but gained 58m over 65

Ratio under 65 : over 652004 = 4 : 12050 = 2 : 1

Is this a problem?

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Migrationsolution to ageing population?

• Europe a continent of emigrants in 19th and early 20th centuries

• 1945 on: in-migration- in waves to northern and western Europe up to 1970s

• Southern Europe – out-migration particularly to northern Europe

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Migration • 1980s: slow increase in

migration - particularly to W. Germany from Poland and Soviet Union

• 1990s: increase in outmigration forecast - but barriers to movement to EU

• Increase in illegal (undocumented) migration - eg from former Yugoslavia, Africa Reproduced from European Population Committee of the Council of

Europe (2005) Recent demographic developments in Europe 2005 .© Council of Europe

Migration in 1990s and 2000s

• Increasing movement of highly skilled workers

• Increasing movement between EU States - for work and retirement

• Young French to London; Britons to France and Spain

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May 2004 and New Accession States

• Free movement of labour permitted by UK, Ireland and Sweden

• ‘… past experience and several studies of the prospective enlargement have failed to indicate that further large scale movements from the new to the existing member states will occur’ (Migration EU Study 2005 J.Salt)

• Migration that occurred was unexpected (13,000 a year predicted by UK) and on an unprecedented scale

• At least one million migrants and probably more since 2004 to UK from NAS

Migration to UK • Most migrants from

Poland

• At least one million

• Throughout urban and

rural Britain

• Crewe has one of

highest concentrations

• Impact on rural and

urban economies

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Polish migrationPush factors:• High unemployment

(12%)• Low wages• Housing shortage

(estd 2m units) - young Pole might get a job but is likely to have to live at home with parents in small flat

Impacts of international migration

UK population fastest growth since 1960s:

• 500 a day over last 5 years

• Net increase of 0.7 million young women 1996-2006

Foreign-born women contributing to increase in birth rate:

• 2001 15% births to foreign born women

• 2006 21% births• Continuing higher

birth rate likely

UK projections (2007) to 2031

2006: 60.6 million

2031 : 71million, with

53% due to natural increase

47% due to migration

65yrs+ make up 22% of population by 2031

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Impacts in central/eastern Europe

• Shrinking cities

• Former East Germany; old industrial centres of Poland, Czech Republic

• Old left as young leave

• Empty houses/lack of services/ and young people to revitalize economy

Conclusions: 1Europe’s population in transition

• Period of intense population change• Highly fluid populations - migrants mobile -

maintain links and contact with country of origin• Fertility / mortality / migration - interact with each

other - second demographic transition has to include migration (second mobility transition)

• Diasporic populations raise questions of identity - changing nature of personal and national identity

2 Local and globalare intricately related

Local and national

• Local population change and household growth - increasing demand for housing - pressures on land and services

• Ageing population - implications for labour force, pensions, social and medical provision

3 Impacts of global population growth are being felt in Europe

• Continuing rise in food /energy prices as global populations grow

• Pressures on environment both from global and local population growth

• Continuing and increasing migration pressures from elsewhere in world

• Europe will be made up of increasingly diverse populations

4 Population issues integral to a range of policy debates

• Housing• Families• Ageing population• Migration• Environment/global warming

European and global perspective is essential for real understanding of

local and national population challenges