Eutrophication Assessment in Coastal WatersEutrophication Assessment in Coastal WatersA Decade of ChangeA Decade of Change

New Jersey Water Quality Monitoring Council Meeting September 6, 2007

NJDEP HQ – Public Hearing Room, Trenton, NJ

S.B. BrickerNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Silver Spring, MD, USA

http://www.eutro.org

http://www.eutro.us

The Context and Guiding LegislationThe Context and Guiding Legislation

US Clean Water Act of 1972, US Harmful Algal Bloom and Hypoxia Research and Control Act of 1998

EU Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC), EU UWWTD and Nitrates Directives – Definition of Sensitive Areas and Vulnerable Zones

Eutrophication is a significant problem worldwide (US, EU, Baltic, Mediterranean, Japan, Australia and elsewhere)

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The Problem – The Assessment ApproachThe Problem – The Assessment Approach

High algal production (Chl)High algal production (Chl)Loss of water clarity Epiphyte problems

Macroalgal problemsMacroalgal problems

Fish kills Loss of habitat

Human health risksLoss of tourism

Closed fishing grounds

Loss of SAVLoss of SAVLow D.OLow D.O

Nuisance/Toxic blooms (HABs)Nuisance/Toxic blooms (HABs)

IncreasedN and P concentration

Symptoms and Consequences of Nutrient EnrichmentNutrient Inputs Primary Secondary Consequences and Processing Impacts Impacts of Symptoms

P: Influencing Factors – Natural processing + Human Nutrient LoadS: Overall Eutrophic Condition – Condition of waterbodyR: Future Outlook – What will happen in the future?

NEEA/ASSETS: Pressure - State - ResponseNEEA/ASSETS: Pressure - State - Response

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Key Aspects of NEEA/ASSETS approachKey Aspects of NEEA/ASSETS approach

The NEEA approach may be divided

into three parts:

Division of estuaries into

homogeneous areas

Evaluation of data completeness

and reliability

Application of indices

Tidal freshwater (<0.5 psu) Tidal freshwater (<0.5 psu) Mixing zone (0.5-25 psu)Mixing zone (0.5-25 psu) Seawater zone (>25 psu)Seawater zone (>25 psu)

Spatial and temporal Spatial and temporal

quality of datasets quality of datasets

(completeness) (completeness)

Confidence in results Confidence in results

(sampling and analytical (sampling and analytical

reliability)reliability)

State:State: Overall Eutrophic Condition index Overall Eutrophic Condition index (Chl, macroalgae, HABs, DO, SAV loss)(Chl, macroalgae, HABs, DO, SAV loss)

Pressure:Pressure: Overall Human Influence index Overall Human Influence index (susceptibility + nutrient load)(susceptibility + nutrient load)

Response:Response: Future Outlook index Future Outlook index (susceptibility + future nutrient load)(susceptibility + future nutrient load)

Guide for management, research, monitoringGuide for management, research, monitoring

Pressure: Influencing Factors

Moderate

Moderate Low

Low

Moderate High

Moderate

Low

High

Moderate High

Moderate Low

Overall Human Influence

Nutrient Pressures

Low Moderate High

Low

Mod

erat

eH

igh

Su

sce

pti

bili

ty

Susceptibility + Nutrient Inputs = Overall Human Influence dilution & flushing land based or oceanic

StateState: Overall Eutrophic Condition: Overall Eutrophic Condition

Moderate

Moderate Low

Low

Moderate High

Moderate

Moderate Low

High

High

Moderate High

Overall Eutrophic Condition

Secondary Symptoms

Low Moderate High

Low

Mod

erat

eH

igh

Pri

ma

ry S

ymp

tom

s

ResponseResponse: Future Outlook: Future Outlook

Future outlook is based on susceptibility and projected changes in nutrient pressures:

Susceptibility is the capacity of a system to dilute or flush nutrients

Nutrient pressure changes are based on expected population changes, future treatment and remediation plans and changes in watershed use (particularly agricultural)

Improve High

Improve Low

ImproveLow

No Change

No Change

No Change

WorsenLow

WorsenHigh

Worsen High

Future Outlook For Eutrophic Conditions

Future Nutrient Pressures

Decrease No Change Increase

Hig

hM

oder

ate

Low

Su

sce

pti

bili

ty

Region Human Influence Primary (No. systems) (M – H) >50% NPS NPS from Ag*No. Atlantic (18) 33 78 0

Mid Atlantic (22) 100 91 60

So. Atlantic (22) 81 100 81

Gulf of Mexico (38) 95 100 85

Pacific (39) 82 89 50

US Total (139)** 68 92 56

Portugal (10) 30 89 67

China (4) 75 ? ?

as percentage of systemsUS from SPARROW model estimates, PT from Ferreira et al 2003*for US: >30% though most are >70% from ag, for PT: ag is most significant nonpt source* *Early 2000s: 44 of 64 (~70%) systems evaluated had moderate to high influencing factors

Influencing FactorsInfluencing Factors

Overall Eutrophic ConditionOverall Eutrophic Condition

? UnknownHighModerate High

Moderate Low

Low

Moderate

Tagus

Sado

Mira

MinhoMinhoLimaLima

DouroDouro

Ria de Aveiro

MondegoMondego

RiaFormosa

Guadiana

Spa

inS

pain

??

?

?

ChinaChina

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1990s – 84 of 121 assessed systems M to H17 systems unknown

2000s – 64 of 99 assessed systems M to H42 systems unknown

Future OutlookFuture Outlook

ChinaChina

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1990s – 71% assessed systems – worsen7% assessed systems - improve

2000s – 65% assessed systems – worsen20% assessed systems - improve

? Unknown No Change

Worsen High Improve Low

Worsen Low Improve High

Tagus

Sado

Mira

MinhoLima

Douro

Ria de Aveiro

Mondego

RiaFormosa

Guadiana

Spa

inS

pain

?

?

ASSETS SynthesisASSETS Synthesis

USUS US US EUEU CNCN1990s1990s 2000s2000s

HighHigh 22 11 22 11GoodGood 1919 55 22 11ModerateModerate 2828 1818 22PoorPoor 5353 1111 11BadBad 1818 1313 11UnknownUnknown 1919 9393 44 ManagementManagement

Changes 1990s – 2000sChanges 1990s – 2000s

Analysis was possible for 58 of 141 systemsAnalysis was possible for 58 of 141 systems

Improved: 13 systems (9%) assessed surface areaImproved: 13 systems (9%) assessed surface area

Worsened: 13 systems (14%) assessed areaWorsened: 13 systems (14%) assessed area

Remained the sameRemained the same: : 32 systems (77% assessed area)32 systems (77% assessed area)

Due to management efforts, primarily point sourceDue to management efforts, primarily point source

Due to population increase and associated activitiesDue to population increase and associated activities

Mid Atlantic Lagoon SystemsMid Atlantic Lagoon Systems

14148686100100Chl aChl a

131363635050HABsHABs

% change% change2004200419991999Mid Atlantic RegionMid Atlantic Region

% assessed systems with % assessed systems with Moderate & High symptom Moderate & High symptom

expressionexpression

Classification based on physical and hydrologic characteristics – nutrients will be processed differently in systems that flush well or flush poorly and management strategies will be different

A top-down classification resulted in 7 types. DISCO gives 6 types but semi-enclosed lagoons were not included

Tagus

Sado

Mira

Minho

Lima

Douro

Ria de Aveiro

Mondego

RiaFormosa

Guadiana

Spa

inS

pain

A top-down classification resulted in 14 types.DISCO gives 10 types.

Typology: DISCO Cluster ResultsTypology: DISCO Cluster Results

Results – ASSETS modelResults – ASSETS model

Farm Dimensions (m) Species Cultivation (d)300X20X10 Generic 45

Food Chl a (g L-1) POM (mg L-1) TPM (mg L-1)

11 5 25

Environment Current (m s-1) T (o C) O2 (mg L-1)

0.02 15 7.0

Cultivation scenario Low Medium HighDensity (ind m-3) 25 100 500Total seed (X103 ind) 1500 6000 30000Total harvest (ton TFW) 13.1 36.8 39.1

Final mean Chl a (g L-1) 9.5 6.0 1.3Final min. O2 (mg L-1) 5.9 3.8 1.8ASSETS grade Good Moderate Poor

Income (k€) 65.5 184 195

WFD

Ferreira, Hawkins and Bricker. 2007 Aquaculture 264:160-174

Eutrophication control Eutrophication control 富营养化控富营养化控制制

Phytoplankton removal31000 kg C y-1

N removal (kg y-1)Algae -4822POM -13151Excretion 3745Faeces 3545Mass balance -10683

Population equivalents3237 PEQ y-1

Sh

ellf

ish

ffi

ltra

tio

n

Density of 500 oysters m-3 180 day cultivation period11 g L-1 chl a initial3.3 kg N y-1 PEQ

Shellfish farming: 2300 k€ y-1

Sewage treatment: 2000 k€ y-1

Total income: 4300 k€ y-1

ASSETS INCOME PARAMETERS

Chl aO2

Detritus removal84540 kg C y-1

National and International PartnersNational and International Partners

Thank You!Thank You!

ASSETS: Four Lagoonal SystemsRia Ria

FormosaFormosaIndices

Overall Human Influence (OHI)

Overall Eutrophic Condition (OEC)

Determination of Future Outlook (DFO)

MODERATE

MODERATELOW

IMPROVE

LOW

ASSETS: GOOD

Ria de Ria de AveiroAveiro

MODERATELOW

MODERATE

NO CHANGE

ASSETS: MOD

MODERATE

HIGH

IMPROVE

LOW

ASSETS: BAD

Chincoteague Chincoteague MD CoastalMD Coastal

MODERATEHIGH

HIGH

IMPROVE

LOW

ASSETS: BAD

Population (X 103) 19-171 12-108 250-300 124-211Nutrient loading (tN y-1) 550 913 2760 1028Mean depth (m)Mean depth (m) 1.11.1 1.21.2 1.41.4 1.91.9Mean tidal range (m)Mean tidal range (m) 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 22 22Water res. time (days) 253 183 4 0.5-2Main impacts Chlorophyll a HABs SAV loss Macroalgae

HABs Macroalgae Red tides Intertidal O2

Macroalgae Bivalve mortality

Pressure: Influencing Factors

mh, expected nutrient concentration from land based sources (i.e. no ocean sources);

mb, expected background nutrient concentration from ocean (i.e. no land-based sources);

IF = ratio of mh/(mh+mb);

Equations are based on a simple Vollenweider approach, modified to account for dispersive exchange:

o

eseab s

smm

Anthropogenic inputs Ocean inputs

Estuary

Class Thresholds

Low 0 to <0.2Moderate low 0.2 to <0.4Moderate 0.4 to < 0.6Moderate high 0.6 to < 0.8High >0.8

o

eoinh s

ssmm

Bricker, S.B., Ferreira, J.G. & Simas, T. 2003. An Integrated Methodology for Assessment of Estuarine Trophic Status. Ecological Modelling. 169:39-60.

1) Determine Chl a, macroalgaeChl a, macroalgae, D.O., SAV loss and D.O., SAV loss and HABsHABs condition for each zone (conc/observance, spatial coverage, frequency of occurrence)

2) Determine expression for primary (average symptom values) and secondary (highest symptom value)

3) Combine primary and secondary for estuary condition

Stepwise Methodology

• Level of expression is based on data, cumulative frequency (Chl a = 90th percentile; DO = 10th percentile)

• GIS or GRID: Spatial area determined by GIS or Grid

Seawater zone

0

50100

150

200250

300

350400

450

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

FrequencyCumulative %

Fre

qu

ency

5 10 15 20 25 3530 40 45 5550 more

Cu

mu

lati

ve p

erce

nta

ge

Chlorophyll a concentration (g l-1)

Seawater zone

0

50100

150

200250

300

350400

450

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

FrequencyCumulative %

Fre

qu

ency

5 10 15 20 25 3530 40 45 5550 more

Cu

mu

lati

ve p

erce

nta

ge

Seawater zone

0

50100

150

200250

300

350400

450

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

FrequencyCumulative %

Fre

qu

ency

5 10 15 20 25 3530 40 45 5550 more5 10 15 20 25 3530 40 45 5550 more

Cu

mu

lati

ve p

erce

nta

ge

Chlorophyll a concentration (g l-1)

State: Overall Eutrophic Condition

n

le

zl E

A

AS

1

Where:Az: Surface area of zoneAe: Total estuarine surface areaEl: Expression value at each zonen: Number of estuarine zones

ASSETS: Mississippi River Plume and Changjiang ASSETS: Mississippi River Plume and Changjiang

Indices

Overall Human Influence (OHI)

Overall Eutrophic Condition (OEC)

Determination of Future Outlook (DFO)

Population (X 103) 73,009 400,000

Loading (tN y-1) 2,070,235 1,600,000

Watershed drains 40% of US, high livestock population Heavily populatedcharacteristics

Other influences Agriculture (crop & animal), Sewage, industry,commercial fishing shipping

Management Plans Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico GEF/UNEP Yellow Sea GEF/UNEP Yellow Sea Watershed Watershed Nutrient Task ForceNutrient Task Force Large Marine Large Marine

Ecosystem Ecosystem Action Plan (reduce MARP to 5,000km Action Plan (reduce MARP to 5,000km22 ((www.yslme.org), ), estimated 30-45% reduction N)estimated 30-45% reduction N) China Blue Sea Action China Blue Sea Action

PlanPlan

Mississippi Changjiang

HIGH

HIGH

WORSENHIGH

ASSETS: BAD

HIGH

HIGH

WORSEN ?

ASSETS:BAD

ChlMacroalgae

DOSAVHAB

HighUnknown

LowUnknown

High

HIghNo Problem

HighNo Problem

High

Future nutrient inputs

Increase Increase

Nutrient inputs High High