Evaluation of Flooding Products: Response to

May 2009 Flooding

Matt Taraldsen

Saint Cloud State University

Introduction and Objectives

In early May 2009 several rivers across central Alaska entered major flood state. Flooding was

initiated by above average thickness in river ice breaking off and creating ice jams. Flooding was

significant enough to cause major impacts in several villages. According to the Alaska Disaster

Declaration, flooding hit the communities of Eagle, Stevens Village, Tanana, Red Devil, and

Akiak. Damage caused by flooding varied from point to point, but some of the worst damage

was in Stevens Village where 100% of occupied homes were impacted, with 3 destroyed and 31

reporting major damage. All time record flooding also occurred in Eagle, destroying 26 homes in

the area, and impacting 87% of all occupied homes. Damages were well in excess of $4 billion,

and a federal disaster was declared for the impacted areas.

In response to the flooding threat the national weather service in Anchorage issued 2 flood

advisors, 5 flood watches, and 9 flood warnings. The flood warnings covered all areas impacted

by flooding…but due to the unpredictable nature of flooding caused by ice jams some

uncertainty still existed in the warnings. While the event was well forecasted and covered by the

National Weather Service, some areas were so remote they did not receive adequate

communications. The purpose of this survey is to determine the users of flood data in rural

Alaska, how they interpreted flood warnings from the National Weather Service during the May

flood event, and what actions were taken to protect life and property. This data will go towards

the final goal, which is to improve the quality of flood products issued in rural Alaska.

Survey Design and Implementation

The survey (figure 1) was created using St. Cloud State’s license with SurveyMonkey. The

survey was based online, and was disseminated through emails to emergency managers and other

local officials. This survey had an extra challenge due to the lack of widespread internet

availability or cell phone coverage in rural Alaska at the time. An online survey was used due to

the quick dissemination potential and for the quick feedback provided by the online portion of

SurveyMonkey. It does however produce a strong bias towards users who have internet

connections and those who receive weather information online. This bias was somewhat

mitigated by coverage of the survey on local television media, but internet was still required to

complete the survey. Over two weeks 32 people responded to the online survey. This small

sample size will make analysis difficult and somewhat representative, but still will yield some

results.

Major Findings:

Question 1: Where do you get your weather information from on a regular basis?

The purpose of this question was to establish an overall trend of where people in Western Alaska

get weather information from. Not surprisingly NWS webpages are overwhelmingly popular.

There is a bias towards this option due to the survey being advertised through NWS means (on

Alaska Weather TV) but it is also interesting that it is ranked so high since there was equal

coverage of this survey from NWS as there was from local television media. The next highest

rated choices were other webpages, newspapers, and public/commercial radio. Each of these

options had 10.4%, and again is not surprising due to posting the survey online. This obviously

favors those who have access to the internet and may make for bias results. The newspaper

response surprises me, but there was no indication of whether people were on a newspaper

website or reading a printed newspaper - a new option would be needed to address that. The

weakest responses were not very surprising – cell phones, in person communications, and local

Weather Service Offices (WSO). These choices would likely not be popular due to the sparse

coverage of cell phones in western Alaska, and the relatively few WSO and WFOs in the area.

With the infrequent offices, it makes face to face discussion with them difficult – and with

internet a call to the local WSO/WFO is no longer needed to get weather information in a timely

fashion. What is surprising is the lack of using NOAA weather radio. Since this is the main way

the NWS communicates directly with the public it may need some changes to make it a useful

form of communication.

4.7% 7.5%

1.9% 3.8%

17.9%

10.4%

6.6%

10.4% 10.4%

4.7% 5.7% 3.8%

9.4%

2.8%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

Where do you get your weather information from on a regular basis?

Question 2: What was the source of weather or river information you relied on most during

the flooding in April/May 2009?

The purpose of question two was the gauge how user habits change during a significant event.

The resource that people turned to first was the internet. Again, due to the bias in posting an

online survey this is to be expected, but what is surprising is the strong rating of the River Watch

program. While a fair number of respondents were members of the river watch group, there were

quite a few of people who responded they received information directly from NWS forecasters

who visited their area directly. This is a good indication that this program is both useful and

benefits those who need information immediately. Cell phone and cable television were the least

popular. Again, this likely was due to the fact that cell phone coverage is sparse at best in rural

Alaska. In addition, before the full extent of flooding was realized media, especially on the

national scale, did not reference the flooding. This likely made this choice irrelevant at the

beginning of the event, contributing to its low rating.

Question 3: Ideally how would you receive weather information from the National Weather

Service?

6.0% 3.0%

0.0% 3.0%

20.9%

10.4% 7.5%

11.9%

7.5%

0.0%

4.5% 3.0%

17.9%

4.5%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

What was the source of weather or river information you relied on most during the

flooding in April/May 2009?

This question was built so that in the future the NWS could disseminate products in a matter

most convenient to those who needed them. The overwhelming popular choice was via the

internet. River forecasts in particular have made many improvements displaying online, and the

hydrographs and such that are displayed on NWS websites were specifically referenced as being

particularly useful. Once again, there is a strong bias on who is taking this survey – but the sheer

amount of people who favored the internet was surprising. Also surprising was the amount of

people who would like to receive emails and RSS feeds about floods. This reflects a few things

typical in today’s society, the need to have information is quickly as possible, but also shows that

people even in rural areas are beginning to use and expect technologies that are not yet offered

through the NWS. Currently the NWS does not have a private email system to email users of

events, and does not have RSS capabilities that are cutting edge. While people can purchase

these services privately, these modes of dissemination should be considered by the NWS, as they

are much more efficient than other modes of communication, such as print newspapers and

NOAA weather radio. The least popular solutions were print newspapers and direct

communication. This is not surprising because this event was so quickly changing. Print

newspapers could not react to the extremely fast paced change in water levels, and likewise due

to the relatively few WFO and WSOs in western Alaska, it made direct face to face or telephone

communications rare – especially since most information that would be received by direct

communication could be received elsewhere in a more efficient fashion.

Question 4: How did the National Weather Service compare with your primary source of

weather information during the flood event?

3.3%

43.3% 33.3%

10.0% 6.7% 3.3%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

In Person Internet direct emails/RSS

VHF/HAM EAS/LocalRadio Aler

PrintNewspapers

Ideally how would you receive weather information from the National Weather

Service?

This event was very hard to forecast with extended lead time due to the very nature of ice jam

flooding. Even with these difficulties it appears that most people were please with the service

provided by the National Weather Service.

Question 5: Explain why you feel the way you answered in question 4.

Those who were not pleased (only 3.1% of those surveyed) indicated that their main complaint

was the lack of lead-time. Again, this was to be expected due to the very chaotic nature of ice

jams and those who reported they were not happy explicitly said that this was due to flooding

already occurring in their backyard before a flood warning could be issued. Those who were

0.0% 3.1%

45.2%

76.5%

40.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

Fell Far Short Fell Short Neither Exceeded Far Exceeded

How did the National Weather Service compare with your primary source of weather information during the flood

event ?

28.6%

20.0% 25.0%

15.8% 11.5% 12.0%

0.0%5.0%

10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%

Why did you answer the way you did in Question 4?

pleased with the service indicated that they particularly liked the frequent updates to the website

and also enjoyed the services given by the River Watch program. One interesting observation

was that 28.6% of people said they were pleased with the service and reacted on the warnings

based mainly because they were issued by the National Weather Service. This is an interesting

perspective, especially since the next result was 25% of people responding they didn’t know

what the NWS did or how they were involved in the flood warnings.

Question 6: Did National Weather Service products and services impact any actions you

took to mitigate the effects of the flooding?

This question was aimed to assess the effectiveness of flood warnings issued by the NWS.

Surprisingly 45.5% of the people took action bases solely on the flood warnings. An additional

45.5% of people said they took action based on personal observations or what other told them,

and did not take the NWS warnings explicitly into account. The remainder (9.1%) of people said

that they did react, but not in a way to personally help them – it was in a way that would help

others mitigate damage, so in other words this was a likely response of emergency managers and

law enforcement.

Question 7: Have you been affected by a flood previous to this event?

45.45% 45.45%

9.09%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

Yes No Not Applicable (Ems)

Did NWS flood warnings cause you to mitigate flood damage?

Before this event, less than half of the people surveyed have experienced flooding before. This is

not too surprising, but I think played a significant part in the way people reacted to this event.

The 2008 floods broke many records, and flooded areas that have never been inundated in recent

history. It would then make sense that not many people have experienced flooding, but it also

creates problems because these people most likely do not fully realize how powerful flood waters

can be, and how they should react to them.

Question 8: If you answered yes to question 7, was the previous flooding serious enough to

cause an evacuation of your home?

45.2%

54.8%

Have you ever experienced flooding before this event?

Yes

No

11.1%

88.9%

Did the previous flood result in an evacuation?

Yes

No

This question was intended to isolate who have had any experience with significant floods in the

past, but it did not get the sample size needed to do any significant analysis. Only 2 people said

they had experienced flooding of that magnitude before, while nearly everybody else who had

experienced a flood only experienced a small one. Again, this is not unexpected due to the rarity

of significant floods, but this question shows just how rare these types of events are, and how

few people have actually experienced a major flood before this occurred – again limiting the

reacting of people to warnings of major or record flood state.

Question 9: Please briefly describe what a flood watch means to you.

Surprisingly nearly all of those surveyed knew the definition of a flood watch. The few who did

not know what the term meant indicated that a watch meant flooding was already occurring, but

with only a minor impact. While this is not the technical definition it is a positive fact that these

people at least recognized a watch as being a hazardous situation.

Question 10: Please briefly describe what a flood advisory means to you and how it differs

from a watch.

85.0%

15.0%

What does a flood watch mean to you?

Possible

Occuring, minor

As it seems to do with other forms of weather products, the advisory level event created the most

confusion. Less than 16% of people actually realized a flood advisory means flooding is

occurring, while nearly 74% of people thought that an advisory means flooding is likely, not

necessarily occurring. This is something that should be clarified by the National Weather

Service. It should be made clear than an advisory indicates there will be minor flooding, but that

it does not constitute a major flooding event. Without proper reaction an advisory could be a

bigger hazard, so even this level of event should be promoted to the public as a situation that

must be closely watched.

Question 11: Please briefly describe what a flood warning means to you and how it differs

from an advisory.

10.5%

73.7%

15.8%

What is a flood advisory?

Not Sure

Flooding highly likely

Flooding In Progress

20.0%

75.0%

5.0%

What is a flood warning?

Not Sure

Flooding occuring

Be Prepared

An overwhelmingly large amount of people realized what a flood warning meant, which is

reassuring. Only 1 person said that a warning meant be prepared, while 20% of people said that

they weren’t sure. While these are significant numbers, it is reassuring that ¾ of all people

surveyed knew what a flood warning said, and a few of them even knew about the different

levels of river flooding that are utilized by the NWS.

Question 12: Based on a Flood Watch for your community, what actions would you take?

Based on this survey it appears that most people reacted exactly as they should during a flood

watch. Most people did not react strongly; instead they increased their awareness and paid

attention to the local media more so than anything else. This is an indication of the power of the

media, and the need of the NWS to work with media partners in creating a consistent and wide

reaching message. Interestingly, one of the lowers responses was paying attention to the NOAA

weather radio, considered to be a major way to transmit warnings and statements. This shows

that although weather radio has its place... for the NWS to effectively reach a major amount of

customers, local media must be utilized to increase the consistency and increase awareness of the

hazard.

Question 13: Based on a Flood Advisory for your community, what actions would you

take?

21.0% 24.5%

12.2%

3.2%

12.3%

2.7% 4.4% 4.1% 9.2%

11.6%

5.8% 2.6% 1.6%

0.0%5.0%

10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%

How do you prepare for a flood watch?

While there seems to be some confusion on what a flood advisory actually is...people seem to

react in generally way the NWS recommends. Most people pay attention to local media and

increase awareness, as well as prepare emergency plans. Some people also move their cars,

goods, and families, another indication that the message is being communicated efficiently. It is

interesting that many people reacted nearly exactly as recommended by the NWS, but there is

still confusion in the term “advisory.” This data suggests that the confusion maybe exists in the

name, and that although the name is poorly communicated the call to actions statements are not.

Question 14: Based on a Flood Warning for your community, what actions would you

take?

20.7% 22.4%

14.5%

5.6%

20.9%

2.5% 3.8% 3.6%

15.3% 13.9%

5.1% 6.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

How do you react to a flood advisory?

The flood warning has a markedly different reaction than both the advisory and the watch. It

seems when a warning is issued not only do people remain aware, but they move to higher

ground. This is reassuring to see that people react to warnings in a more significant way, but

warnings are only effective if they are heard, and increased communication will only improve

the reaction to warnings.

Demographic Information

Nearly half of all of people who responded were public service or elected officials. While it is

nice to see that elected leaders know for the most part how to react, it is also concerning to see as

much confusion as there is about advisory level events. An additional 26% of people were law

enforcement/emergency management….which again could boost the amount of people who

knew how to react to flooding, but again shows some potential problems with the different types

of events. All of those who took the survey at least had a high school diploma, with most people

having a college degree of some sort. There were 17 men who took the survey and 13 women,

making a rather fair approximation of the ratio of sexes in this survey. 20% of those surveyed

were also river observers, again creating the possibility of an artificially high amount of

knowledge of NWS flooding products. All respondents came from within the areas impacted by

flooding, including the Eagle, Nome, Fairbanks, and Stevens Village.

Conclusion:

17.1% 19.8%

11.4%

3.2%

13.7%

5.0% 6.8% 5.2%

18.7% 22.7%

31.8%

6.7%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

How do you react to a flood warning?

The survey did not reveal any major surprises about flood products but did highlight a few

interesting things. The first was confusion over the flood advisory product, even within the

emergency management and river observer community. It may be beneficial to increase the

amount of outreach and exposure this product gets through Public Information Statements or

talks. People seemed very pleased with the National Weather Service, and what was a special

surprise was how people received information. Even in such a remote area, internet RSS feeds

and email are the preferred way of receiving data. The NWS has been seriously lagging on this

front, and perhaps it is time for an upgrade to these types of systems to increase the effectiveness

of NWS products. Data from the flood watch warning and advisory also show the need for a

consistent message, and show how strongly people rely on the media for information. During a

significant flood event it is important that the NWS and media are on the same page…creating

the need for strong and direct communication.

Figure 1:

April - May 2009 Flooding Survey

1. Where do you get weather or river information on a regular basis? (Select all that

apply).

Telephone

Alaska Weather TV Show

Cell Phone

NOAA Weather Radio

National Weather Service webpages

Other internet webpages

Friends

Newspaper

Public/Commercial Radio

Cable Television

Local Television

Local Weather Service Office

River Watch team in person or via HF radio

Other (open response)

2. What was the source of weather or river information you relied on most during

the flooding in April/May 2009?

Telephone

Alaska Weather TV Show

Cell Phone

NOAA Weather Radio

National Weather Service webpages

Other internet webpages

Friends

Newspaper

Public/Commercial Radio

Cable Television

Local Television

Local Weather Service Office

River Watch team in person or via HF radio

Other (open response)

3. Ideally how would you receive weather information from the National Weather

Service?

Open Response

4. How did the National Weather Service compare with your primary source of

weather information during the flood event?

Fell far short

Fell short

Neither

Exceeded

Far exceeded

5. Why do you feel the way you answered in question 4?

Open Response

6. Did National Weather Service products and services impact any actions you took

to mitigate the effects of the flooding?

Open Response

7. Have you been affected by a flood previous to this event?

Yes

No

8. If you answered yes to question 7, was the previous flooding serious enough to

cause an evacuation of your home?

Yes

No

9. Please briefly describe what a flood watch means to you.

Open Response

10. Please briefly describe what a flood advisory means to you and how it differs

from a watch.

Open Response

11. Please briefly describe what a flood warning means to you and how it differs

from an advisory.

Open Response

12. Based on a Flood Watch for your community, what actions would you take?

(Select all that apply).

Be aware of conditions that could prompt ice jam flooding (ice conditions,

river levels, etc).

Listen to radio or TV broadcasts for emergency information and evacuate

immediately if told to do so.

Collect emergency building supplies -- plywood, plastic sheeting, lumber,

hammer, nails, saw, pry bar, shovels and sandbags.

Purchase a weather alert radio.

Organize an evacuation plan and establish an emergency meeting place should

your family get separated.

Secure shelves and water heaters to nearby walls.

Raise electrical system components.

Consider installing check valves in your plumbing to prevent floodwater

backup.

Move vehicles at a higher elevation.

Move goods or other objects to higher ground.

Move to higher ground.

Other: Open Response

13. Based on a Flood Advisory for your community, what actions would you take?

(Select all that apply).

Be aware of conditions that could prompt ice jam flooding (ice conditions,

river levels, etc).

Listen to radio or TV broadcasts for emergency information and evacuate

immediately if told to do so.

Collect emergency building supplies -- plywood, plastic sheeting, lumber,

hammer, nails, saw, pry bar, shovels and sandbags.

Purchase a weather alert radio.

Organize an evacuation plan and establish an emergency meeting place should

your family get separated.

Secure shelves and water heaters to nearby walls.

Raise electrical system components.

Consider installing check valves in your plumbing to prevent floodwater

backup.

Move vehicles at a higher elevation.

Move goods or other objects to higher ground.

Move to higher ground.

Other: Open Response

14. Based on a Flood Warning for your community, what actions would you take?

(Select all that apply).

Be aware of conditions that could prompt ice jam flooding (ice conditions, river

levels, etc).

Listen to radio or TV broadcasts for emergency information and evacuate

immediately if told to do so.

Collect emergency building supplies -- plywood, plastic sheeting, lumber,

hammer, nails, saw, pry bar, shovels and sandbags.

Purchase a weather alert radio.

Organize an evacuation plan and establish an emergency meeting place should

your family get separated.

Secure shelves and water heaters to nearby walls.

Raise electrical system components.

Consider installing check valves in your plumbing to prevent floodwater backup.

Move vehicles at a higher elevation.

Move goods or other objects to higher ground.

Move to higher ground.

Other: Open Response

Demographic Information:

What is your highest education level completed?

Some high school or below

High school diploma/GED

Some college

College Degree

Advanced Degree

What is your current occupation?

Subsistence: hunting, fishing, or trapping.

Law Enforcement /Emergency Management

Public Service /Elected Official

Commercial Fishing

Retired

Education (not student)

Student

Aviation

Construction

Media

Power Generation

Caretaker/Healthcare

Oil Industry

Self Employed

Other: (Open Response)

What is your current age? (Open response)

Are you Male or Female?

Male

Female

What is your home zip code? (Open response)

Do you belong to a weather reporting network?(e.g., River Watch, SKYWARN, HIDDEN,

CoCoRaHS, Co-op Observer, River/Ice Observer, Storm/Snow Spotter, Weather Watcher)

Yes

No

(Optional) Please leave us your name and an email or telephone numbers if we may contact you

with any further questions about your responses.

This survey does not constitute an endorsement by the NWS of any

information, products or services within this project.

Thank you for your help with this survey. It is designed to understand how meteorological

products can better serve your needs.