evaluation of insect resistance management models 昆虫抗性管理模型的评价
DESCRIPTION
Evaluation of Insect Resistance Management Models 昆虫抗性管理模型的评价. Stage IGenetics (Validation) 阶段 I 遗传学(确认) Stage IIBiology and Ecology 阶段 II 生物学和生态学 Stage IIIToxin Distribution in Landscape 阶段 III 田间毒素分布 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Evaluation of Insect Resistance Management Models昆虫抗性管理模型的评价
• Stage I Genetics (Validation) 阶段 I 遗传学(确认)• Stage II Biology and Ecology 阶段 II 生物学和生态学• Stage III Toxin Distribution in Landscape 阶段 III 田间毒素分布• Stage IV Management 阶段 IV 管理
Modeler建模型者
Crop作物 Lepidoptera
鳞翅类Coleoptera甲虫类
AndowCorn玉米 Ostrinia nubilalis Diabrotica spp.
CaprioCotton/Corn棉花/玉米 O. nubilalis
GuseCorn玉米 O. nubilalis
Diatraea grandiosellaD. virgifera virgifera
OnstadCorn玉米 O. nubilalis
D. grandiosellaDiabrotica spp.
PeckCotton棉花 Heliothis virescens
StorerCotton/Corn棉花/玉米 Helicoverpa zea Diabrotica spp.
SistersonCotton棉花 Pectinophora
gossypiella
Rate of Resistance Evolution耐受性进化的速度• Current Frequency of Resistance Allele抗性等位基因的目前发生率• Dominance of Resistance Allele抗性等位基因的优势• Proportion of Transgenic and Refuge Fields 转基因和避难地的比例• Arrangement of Transgenic and Refuge Fields 转基因和避难地的布局
Rate of Resistance Evolution耐受性进化的速度• Current Frequency of Resistance Allele抗性等位基因的目前频率
– Field Sampling, Bioassays and Genetic Testing 田间采样,生物测定和基因测试
• Dominance of Resistance Allele抗性等位基因的优势– Maintain High Toxicity and Breeding Programs 保持高毒性和繁殖
• Proportion of Transgenic and Refuge Fields 转基因和避难地的比例– Regulate Sales and Grower Compliance调节销售和生产的一致
• Arrangement of Transgenic and Refuge Fields 转基因和避难地的布局
– Grower Practices and Compliance 生产措施和认同
q 0 = 0
.02
q 0 = 0
.01
q 0 = 0
.005
Wss < Wrs < WrrTransgenic 0.5 0.01 0.02 1.00 Refuge 0.5 1.00 1.00 1.00
Res
ista
nce
Alle
le
Freq
uenc
yIncreased Initial Allele Frequency Shortens Time to Resistance.提高起始等位基因频率缩短产生抗性时间
抗性等位
基因频率
转基因避难地
后代
Wrs
= 0
.03
Wrs
= 0
.02
Wrs
= 0
.01
q0 = 0.005 Wss < Wrs < WrrTransgenic 0.5 0.01 x.xx 1.00 Refuge 0.5 1.00 1.00 1.00
Resistance Evolves faster with Increased Dominance随着优势增加抗性进化加快R
esis
tanc
e A
llele
Fr
eque
ncy
抗性等位
基因频率
后代转基因避难地
Wss < Wrs < WrrTransgenic 0.5 0.01 x.xx 1.00 Refuge 0.5 1.00 1.00 1.00
DominantWrs = 0.99
RecessiveWrs = 0.02
Codominance Wrs = 0.50
q0 = 0.005
Refuge Strategies Depend on High-Dose CropsCreating Functionally Recessive Heterozygote避难区策略依赖于产生功能性隐性异质体的高剂量作物
Res
ista
nce
Alle
le
Freq
uenc
y
后代
抗性等位
基因频率
转基因避难地
Wss < Wrs < WrrTransgenic x.x 0.01 0.02 1.00 Refuge 1-T 1.00 1.00 1.00
P(T) = 0.80
P(T) = 0.50
P(T) = 0.40
q0 = 0.005
Proportion of Transgenic [ P(T) ] Affects Time to Resistance转基因庄稼的比例影响产生抗性的比例R
esis
tanc
e A
llele
Fr
eque
ncy
后代
抗性等位
基因频率
转基因避难地
Pre-Mating Dispersal
交配前扩散Mating
交配
Oviposition
产卵
New Year新年
Overwintering 过冬Mortality 死亡
Yes
No
Post-Mating Dispersal
交配后扩散Mortality 死亡
Bt Toxin Bt 毒素Insecticide 杀虫剂Density Dependent
密度依赖性的Density Independent
密度非依赖性的
End of Growing Season生长季节结束
Assign Landscape
指定地块
New Generation新一代
Pre-Mating Dispersal
交配前扩散Mating
交配
Oviposition
产卵
NewYear
OverwinteringMortality
Yes
No
Post-Mating Dispersal
交配后扩散Mortality
Bt Toxin
Insecticide
Density Dependent
Density Independent
End ofGrowing Season
Assign Landscape
分配地块
NewGeneration
Dispersal Behaviors of the Insect Interact with the Landscape Configuration to
Determine the Genetic Distribution昆虫扩散行为与地貌的相互作用决定遗传分布
Refuge避难区
Non-Crop Areas非作物区
Transgenic转基因植物区
Assign Crop Type and Location Randomly随机分派作物类别和位置
Spatially Explicit Model with Stochastic Placement随机布置的空间简要模型
Evaluate outcome frommany iterations (100-1000’s)评价不同迭代次数结果( 100 - 1000 ’ )
Refuge 避难区
Non-Crop Areas 非作物区
Transgenic转基因植物区
Simulation Models influenced by landscape and insect dispersal behavior 模拟模型受土地和昆虫的扩散行为影响
Dispersal Distance of Adults before andafter mating.交配前后成虫的扩散距离
Refuge避难区
Non-Crop Areas非作物区
Transgenic转基因植物区
Models Identify the Spatial Locations of Greatest Risk模型区分最大风险的空间位置
Greatest Risk of Resistance Evolving耐受性演化的高风险区
Refuge避难区
Non-Crop Areas非作物区
Transgenic转基因植物区
Distribute Genetics According to Dispersal Behavior根据扩散行为得到的基因分布Dispersal Distance of Adult Insects:2 fields, any direction成虫扩散距离: 2 块地,任何方向
Refuge避难区
Non-Crop Areas非作物区
Transgenic转基因植物区
“Hotspots” of Resistant Populations are mostLikely to Develop Where Refuges Don’t Exist.没有避难区的地方很可能产生群体抗性“热点”
Greatest Risk of Resistance Evolving抗性演化的高风险区
Refuge避难区
Non-Crop Areas非作物区
Transgenic转基因区
Resistance Evolves First in a “Hotspot” and Disperses through the Population.抗性在“热点”区产生后扩散
Resistant Population Disperses from HotspotsTo Nearby Fields抗性群体从热点区扩散到附近的地里
Pre-Mating Dispersal
交配前扩散Mating
交配
Oviposition
产卵
New Year新年
Overwintering 过冬Mortality 死亡
Yes
No
Post-Mating Dispersal
交配后扩散Mortality 死亡
Bt Toxin Bt 毒素Insecticide 杀虫剂Density Dependent
密度依赖性的Density Independent
密度非依赖性的
End of Growing Season生长季节结束
Assign Landscape
指定地块
New Generation新一代
Pre-Mating Dispersal Mating
NewYear
OverwinteringMortality
Yes
No
Post-Mating Dispersal
End ofGrowing Season
Assign Landscape
NewGeneration
The Sequence and Magnitude of Mortality Events Can Change the Outcome.死亡的次序和强度会改变结果
Oviposition
产卵
Mortality 死亡Bt Toxin Bt 毒素Insecticide 杀虫剂Density Dependent
密度依赖性的Density Independent
密度非依赖性的
Generations till Resistance EvolvesBased on Theoretical Standards基于理论标准产生抗性的后代
后代
转基因比例
Better Understanding of Evolutionary TheoryNeeded to Compare Different
Landscape Management Strategies更好的理解进化理论需要比较不同的土地管理方式
后代
转基因比例
Simulation Models are Time Consuming
Often Truncated at 100-200 Generations模拟模型是很耗时的经常会缩到 100 - 200 代后代
转基因比例
Need to Understand theConfidence Boundaries
Resulting fromLandscape Management and
Stochastic Inputs需要理解由于土地管理和随机分布引起的置信区间
Slower慢Faster快
后代
转基因比例