Ed MillerEVERYONE IS

TERRIBLE AT POKER

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Massive, widespread delusion about poker skill.Understanding the true state of the game may inspire

you.

WHY SO MEAN, ED?

Chess is very hard.People study for years and improve incrementally

over time.Most people cap out at a certain strength.Fairly wide player base.Wide, wide skill disparity between the elite players

and the vast majority of players.No $$$ in it unless you are top 0.01%.

CHESS VS. POKER

Poker is very hard. (Similar to chess)People study for years and improve incrementally

over time.Most people cap out at a certain strength.Wide player base. (Even wider than chess)Wide, wide skill disparity between the elite players

and the vast majority of players.Lots of $$$ in it, even if you are just top 10%.

POKER VS. CHESS

They play on a regular basis at a local chess club and travel regionally to play in tournaments.

They study the game with some level of interest.They are competitive amongst themselves.They basically have absolutely no shot against any

elite or semi-elite player.

THE CLUB PLAYER

Any reg in a commonly off ered poker game (up to roughly $2-$4 online and $10-$25 live) is a poker “club player”.

These are players of varying skill who take the game seriously and invest regular time into it.

They stratify—$5-$10 regs will tend to be a good bit better than $1-$3 regs.

None of these players have any legitimate shot against elite or semi-elite players.

POKER REGS ARE CLUB PLAYERS

The random element of poker hides its deep stratification.

Club chess players will feel overmatched against grandmasters almost immediately.

It takes longer for a poker “game” to play out such that the skill diff erence becomes clear.

The skill diff erence is just as stark and unforgiving.

POKER HIDES ITS STRATA

Elite players aren’t in your games.The people who are in your games are at best club

level players, and it’s possible to have an enormous skill advantage over them.

If you feel like some players in your game are “tough” and “solid,” it’s an indication that you too are a club-level player.

Good news: It’s fairly easy to improve a couple levels and learn to pummel everyone in your game.

EVERYONE IS TERRIBLE AT POKER

TIME FOR MYTHBUSTING

Because these myths persist among regular players, spread from person to person.

If you believe and follow these myths, you will not learn to be better than your fellow club-level players.

Elite players just don’t think this way about no-limit hold’em. You should know that.

WHY MYTHBUSTING

Five and ten rule has to do with percentage of stack size to call preflop with suited connectors, small pairs, and the like.

Focuses only on a single component of hand value: implied odds.

Implies that you want to “keep pot small” with these hands.

MYTH #1. FIVE AND TEN RULE

PROBLEMS You check-fold too frequently postflop. Your preflop calling and 3-betting ranges get unbalanced. Unbalances postflop aggression, making it easy to fold to

your strength.REALITY

These hands aren’t special. They belong in well-designed preflop ranges that scale with stack size, position, and action.

MYTH #1. FIVE AND TEN RULE (CONT.)

This is when people fold relatively strong hands from (usually) out of position to avoid being outplayed on a later street.

Also known as, “If you call now, you have to call the river too.”

E.g., the out of position player bets the flop, the button makes a small raise (compared to the pot and remaining stack sizes), and bettor folds to avoid being outplayed.

MYTH #2. FOLD EARLY TO AVOID GETTING OUTPLAYED

PROBLEMS You just outplayed yourself. You allowed your opponent to

push you off too large a percentage of hands with a very small investment.

If you find yourself wanting to do this a lot, there’s a good chance your out of position hand range is poorly constructed going in.

REALITY Everyone is terrible at poker. MAKE THEM OUTPLAY YOU.

DON’T GIVE THEM CREDIT. It’s frequently correct to call on one street with the plan to

fold unimproved to a bigger bet on the next street. You have to build bet-calling and bet-folding ranges for

common situations before you sit in a game.

MYTH #2. FOLD EARLY TO AVOID GETTING OUTPLAYED

This takes a lot of forms, but usually it involves making a fold instead of playing a hand out to avoid a potential big loss.

Sometimes it involves limping or flat-calling preflop with a hand to avoid building a big pot.

“I am waiting for a better spot.”“I like to see the flop fi rst before I commit.”“I will run better/play bigger if I play to reduce my

variance.”

MYTH #3. PLAYING TO REDUCE VARIANCE

PROBLEMS Everything? None of these plays benefit you in any way. They just cause

you to play poker worse. Calling when you should raise rewards your opponents for

overaggression. Folding when you should call also rewards your opponents for

overaggression. Players tend to take these lines the most in AGGRESSIVE

games. That’s bad. REALITY

Want to reduce your variance? You got three options: Run it twice Buy in for less Play smaller

MYTH #3. PLAYING TO REDUCE VARIANCE (CONT.)

Unfortunately, many of the “rules of thumb” you may have learned about no-limit hold’em are myths.

Eight years ago, these rules of thumb were good ways to get your skill level to a point where you could abuse the totally clueless.

Today, most regular players know these “rules” and when you play by them, you play no better than anyone else.

WHAT’S NOT A MYTH?

In chess, one of the best ways to get better is to do chess puzzles. Do some every day for six months, and you will improve.

In poker, you need to do something similar. It’s called range-building exercises.

I describe the process in detail in my latest book, Poker’s 1%. The basic idea is that you start from basic, mathematical principles and build a strategy from preflop through the river for playing every hand in the deck.

Every day, you take 1-3 hands that you’ve played and do these range-building exercises.

Do one exercise a day for six months, and you will improve.

WHAT’S NOT A MYTH? (CONT.)

I plan to focus on the thought processes of regular players and construct and deconstruct their strategies, strengths, and weaknesses.

My goal is to show you exactly what I mean when I say everyone is terrible at poker. Once you see that clearly, you can rise above your level and really start making $$$.

WHAT’S NEXT, ED?