Evidence Based Pre-Trial Initiative

Kathy Waters, DirectorAdult Probation Services Division

Arizona Supreme Court

The Purpose of Bail

1. Protect the integrity of the court process

2. Protect the public3. Protect against

punishment prior to conviction

Bond Schedules Sometimes

called “standard bond”

The predominant mechanism for assigning bail according to the National Pretrial Justice Survey

Defining “Effective” Bail Decisions

“Effective bail decisions would foster the release of as many defendants as possible before trial, while maintaining suitably low failure to appear and re-arrest rates.”

(John Goldkamp and Michael Gottfredson, Policy Guidelines for Bail: An Experiment in Court Reform.)

COSCA White Paper (2012)

“…Economic status (is) a significant factor in determining whether a defendant is released pending trial, instead of such factors as risk of flight and threat to public safety.”

“In short, ‘for the poor, bail means jail.’”

Purpose of Pretrial

Assist the court in making informed pretrial decisions

To effectively supervise defendants

Ensure the defendants meet courts obligations

Applying the Research

Provide current research regarding evidence based pre-trial practices to courts in Arizona.

Expand the use of validated research based risk assessments.

Risk Assessments

These tools are objective, research based validated assessments that measure a defendant’s risk of flight and anticipated criminal conduct while on pretrial release pending adjudication.

Allows for release without a monetary bond.

Actuarial Risk Assessment

What it is› Data driven › Research informed› Objective aid to decision making› Used for decades in commerce

Health, education, national security, etc.

What it isn’t› Person-specific› A replacement for judicial discretion

Risk AssessmentAuto Insurance

› Age› Distracted driving› Peer(s) in vehicle

with driver› Low driving skills› Low compliance

with traffic laws

Risk MitigationAuto Insurance

Drivers education Restrict nighttime driving Prohibit peers as

passengers Strict enforcement

› Seat belts, texting, etc.

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Relationship Between Risk and

Offense Severity Not a linear relationship

What does this mean?› Those who commit the most severe offenses

are not necessarily the highest risk of failure to appear or to commit new offenses while on pretrial supervision

› Offense Severity alone, is not sufficient to predict pretrial risk

Risk AssessmentPretrial Justice

Statistically measures probability of success/failure of the two factors to consider for bail:

› Appearance in court

› Community safety

Pretrial Outcomes In 2011 Pretrial risk assessment was

legislatively mandated to preform a risk assessment for every criminal defendant in Kentucky.

Kentucky has the only statewide pretrial services system in the nation

Only site where statewide pretrial data is available

Pretrial Outcomes in Kentucky

Overall Release rate: 70% Non-financial release rate: 66% Public safety rate: 92% Appearance rate: 91%

DC Pretrial Justice Outcomes•Overall Release rate: 85%• Community safety rate: 88%• Appearance rate: 88%

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Maricopa CountyRisk Level & Pretrial Outcomes

Maricopa Sample June 1 to August 30, 2012Assessed

Risk Category

FTA New charge

Any Pretrial

Misconduct

1 - Low 6.0% 1.5% 7.1%2 -Med Low

12.1% 3.6% 12.4%

3 - Medium

17.3% 4.9% 20.7%

4 - High 28.5% 6.1% 31.9%

Implementation

Work with each jurisdiction to ensure evidence based pretrial practices are being followed.

Determine how to promote establishment of pre-trial services in adult probation departments and the use of validated assessments.

Establish a model for limited jurisdiction courts.

Education 

Develop and deliver education programs for judges and probation staff through the Judicial Education Center. Program assistance will be offered by models from the Pre-Trial Justice Institute and the National Association of Pretrial Services Association.

Call for Pretrial Reform Since 2010

Arizona Public Opinion Results

Support Undecided Oppose Don't Know0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%

68%

16% 14% 2%

Risk Assessment Instead of Cash Bail Bonds

Question:Some have proposed using risk-based screening tools instead of cash bail bonds to determine whether defendants should be released from jail before trial. This risk assessment would take into account such factors as [drug use history, mental health, employment status, residency, and community ties] or [the charge in question, criminal history, any warrants or previous failures to appear for court]. Under this system, high-risk defendants would be held in jail until trial and low-risk defendants would be released with conditions and be monitored and supervised. Would you support or oppose this proposal to use risk assessment instead of cash bail bonds to determine whether defendants should be released from jail before trial, or are you undecided? [IF SUPPORT/OPPOSE] And do you feel that way strongly, or not-so strongly?

Perceived Effectiveness of “Pretrial Risk Assessment”

Effective Somewhat Not Effective

Not Effective at All

Don't Know0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0.76000000000000

1

0.24

0% 0 0

Very Ef-fective

Some-what Ef -fective

Question:I’m going to read you a list of terms used to describe the proposal of using risk-based screening tools to determine whether defendants should be released from jail before trial. For each term, tell me how effective you think it sounds when it comes to protecting public safety and ensuring appearance for trial: VERY effective, SOMEWHAT effective, NOT VERY effective, NOT effective AT ALL. If you don’t know just say so and we’ll move on. “Pretrial risk assessment.”

Perceived Effectiveness of Pretrial Risk Assessment

Effective Not Effective Don't Know0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%100%

0% 0%

Question:I’m going to read you a list of terms used to describe the proposal of using risk-based screening tools to determine whether defendants should be released from jail before trial. For each term, tell me how effective you think it sounds when it comes to protecting public safety and ensuring appearance for trial: VERY effective, SOMEWHAT effective, NOT VERY effective, NOT effective AT ALL. If you don’t know just say so and we’ll move on. “Pretrial risk assessment.”

43% Think Risk Assessment is Happening Now

Yes43%

No45%

Don't Know13%

Question:Some have proposed using risk-based screening tools instead of cash bail bonds to determine whether defendants should be released from jail before trial. This risk assessment would take into account such factors as the nature of the offense in question, the suspect’s criminal history, as well as their employment, residency, drug use history and mental health. Under this system, high-risk defendants would be held in jail until trial and low-risk defendants would be released with conditions and be monitored and supervised.

Do you think a system like the one proposed already exists?