Evolution of Digital Media Technologies: Diffusion Theory

Kathy E. Gill17 October 2006

Overview Recap Last Week Context – Alphabet Soup More Theory Group Discussion Course Projects

Recap Digital media differ from traditional

mass media in three essential ways: Time, Space Bits v Atoms

Communication theories attempt to explain how and why things happen like they do

Theories (1/2)

Scientific HumanisticWhy: Discover the

“truth”Create meaning

Values: Objectivity “Emancipation”

Purpose: Determine universal laws

Provide rules for interpretation

Theories (2/2)

Scientific Humanistic

Research Methods:

Quantitative: experiment, survey

Qualitative: ethnography, textual analysis

Judged by: Explains data Predicts future Testable hypothesis Practicality

Explains human behavior Clarifies values Consensus Ability to reform society

Additional Context Clip from It Happened One Night,

1934 A series of “quotables”

The Telegraph (1 of 2)

Separated communication from transportation

Changed the meaning of space (made the world smaller)

Helped change the meaning of time (time zones) The Great Western Railway was the first to adopt

London time in November 1840. Railroads instituted time zones in the US and

Canada on 18 November 1883.

The Telegraph (2 of 2)

"This is the age of telegrams. The public is accustomed to the consideration of facts in the briefest terms.“ The Science Record for 1873

Influenced journalism (objectivity) and language (“telegraph style”)

From the clip: $2.60 in 1934 = ~$40.00 today For $40 …. what communication services

can we buy?

Paradox Pre-voice telephony – we transferred

“data” (eg, wire transfers of money) Digital age – our “voice” is now

“data” (zeros-and-ones)

Quotable 1

“This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.” -- Western Union internal memo, 1876

Quotable 2

“Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?” -- H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927

Quotable 3

“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”-- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

Quotable 4

“Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.” -- Popular Mechanics, 1949

What Leads To Adoption? Clearly, most of us peer into a cloudy

ball, not a crystal one We’ll look at the adoption of

computing technologies after Alphabet soup Supervening Social Necessity Rogers Diffusion Theory

Why use a technology? (1/2)

Cognitive Needs – Desire (demand) for information, knowledge, understanding

Affective Needs – Aesthetic, pleasurable, and emotional experiences

Personal Integrative Needs – Inner-directed, deal with credibility, confidence, stability, and status

Social Integrative Needs – Outer-directed, strengthening relationships with family, friends, the world

Escapist Needs – Desire for tension release or diversion

- Katz, Gurevitch, and Haas

Why use a technology? (2/2)

Availability Cost Network effects Buzz/coolness factor Makes something easier to do ??

Digital Communication Today WWW, E-mail, FTP PDF, PPT, RTF, XLS HTML, XHTML, XML, CSS, JS GIF, JPG, PNG, SWF, MOV, AVI Perl, VB, CF, ASP, PHP P2P MSN, AOL, Google, Yahoo!, About.com iPod, Creative Zen, iRiver, PlaysForSure MySpace, YouTube, Slashdot RSS, HDTV, BlueRay … Anything else?

Why … Do we adopt one technology and not

another? VHS v Beta Apple’s Newton v Palm + or –R DVD media

Supervening Social Necessity Winston’s main contention

More than “build a better mousetrap” : VoIP from last week: “phones work fine” – what need is being met with the new technology

Advertising One goal is to build this “need”

FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt)

Rogers - Diffusion Theory Identified four main elements of an

innovation-diffusion process Innovation Social system Time Communications channels

Linear innovation-diffusion theory

The process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social system.

Rogers, 1995, page 5

Innovation An idea, practice, or object that is

perceived as new by an individual or other unit of adoption

Communication A process in which participants

create and share information with one another in order to reach mutual understanding

Time The adoption model follows an

“s” shape curve over time

Forecast: US Household Technology Adoption, 2005-2010Forrester Reports. July 2005, Data Overview “The State Of Consumers And Technology: Benchmark 2005”

Social System A set of interrelated units that are

engaged in joint problem-solving to accomplish a common goal.

Members or units of a social system may be individuals, informal groups, organizations, and/or subsystems.

Innovation-Decision Process The mental process through

which an individual passes : from knowledge to forming an attitude toward the innovation (adopt, reject)

Rogers: Five steps of adoption Knowledge Persuasion Decision (adopt or reject) Implementation Confirmation

Critical mass (1/2)

Rogers (1995) : "the critical mass occurs at the point at which enough individuals have adopted an innovation so that the innovation's further rate of adoption becomes self-sustaining.”

Critical mass (2/2)

The critical mass theory is a social system perspective, while the dominant design theory is a technology perspective.

The irreversible phase may take place when not only the critical mass point is overcome but also the dominant design is brought about at least in terms of the technological innovation. Examples?

Adopter categories Innovators Early adopters Early majority Late majority Laggards

Technological Innovations Hardware - the tool that

embodies the technology as a material or physical object.

Software - the knowledge base for the tool

For additional thought … Increasing capacity w/out adding

wires (telegraph). Parallels today? Grey v Bell …. Jobs v Gates? What is today’s “railroad” sector? Price models: Bell’s renting the

phone, IBM’s renting the mainframe, software constant upgrades …

Discussion Four groups -> discuss key learnings and

questions from main readings Examples of supervening social necessity and

law of unintended consequences? What events/experiences came to mind during

these readings? Where did you find yourself saying ‘Yeah!’ or ‘No

way!’? What old images/concepts are being called into

question? How are you managing the sea of info around

you?

Projects Peer groups – continue to talk about

project ideas On Your Own – using UW Library

resources, search for relevant scholarly material on your subject

Feedback On 3x5 card (anonymous unless

you want feedback from me) How will you apply what you have

learned tonight? If we participated like this again, what

would you like us to do differently? Why?